Transmission rate and reproductive number of the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus during the December 2005-July 2008 epidemic in Nigeria

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cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.crpAgriculture for Nutrition and Healthen_US
cg.coverage.countryNigeriaen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2NGen_US
cg.coverage.regionAfricaen_US
cg.coverage.regionWestern Africaen_US
cg.creator.identifierBernard Bett: 0000-0001-9376-2941en_US
cg.creator.identifierThomas Fitz Randolph: 0000-0003-1849-9877en_US
cg.creator.identifierIheanacho Okike: 0000-0001-7059-8595en_US
cg.creator.identifierElizabeth Jane Poole: 0000-0002-8570-794Xen_US
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.12003en_US
cg.isijournalISI Journalen_US
cg.issn1865-1674en_US
cg.issue1en_US
cg.journalTransboundary and Emerging Diseasesen_US
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen_US
cg.subject.ilriAGRI-HEALTHen_US
cg.subject.ilriANIMAL DISEASESen_US
cg.subject.ilriEMERGING DISEASESen_US
cg.subject.ilriEPIDEMIOLOGYen_US
cg.subject.ilriPOULTRYen_US
cg.subject.ilriZOONOTIC DISEASESen_US
cg.volume61en_US
dc.contributor.authorBett, Bernard K.en_US
dc.contributor.authorHenning, J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorAbdu, P.en_US
dc.contributor.authorOkike, Iheanachoen_US
dc.contributor.authorPoole, Elizabeth J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorYoung, J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorRandolph, Thomas F.en_US
dc.contributor.authorPerry, Brian D.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-10-31T19:22:38Zen_US
dc.date.available2012-10-31T19:22:38Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/24701en_US
dc.titleTransmission rate and reproductive number of the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus during the December 2005-July 2008 epidemic in Nigeriaen_US
dcterms.abstractWe quantified the between-village transmission rate, β (the rate of transmission of H5N1 HPAI virus per effective contact), and the reproductive number, Re (the average number of outbreaks caused by one infectious village during its entire infectious period), of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus in Nigeria using outbreak data collected between December 2005 and July 2008. We classified the outbreaks into two phases to assess the effectiveness of the control measures implemented. Phase 1 (December 2005–October 2006) represents the period when the Federal Government of Nigeria managed the HPAI surveillance and response measures, while Phase 2 (November 2006–July 2008) represents the time during which the Nigeria Avian Influenza Control and Human Pandemic Preparedness project (NAICP), funded by a World Bank credit of US$ 50 million, had taken over the management of most of the interventions. We used a total of 204 outbreaks from 176 villages that occurred in 78 local government areas of 25 states. The compartmental susceptible-infectious model was used as the analytical tool. Means and 95% percentile confidence intervals were obtained using bootstrapping techniques. The overall mean β (assuming a duration of infectiousness, T, of 12 days) was 0.07/day (95% percentile confidence interval: 0.06–0.09). The first and second phases of the epidemic had comparable β estimates of 0.06/day (0.04–0.09) and 0.08/day (0.06–0.10), respectively. The Re of the virus associated with these β and T estimates was 0.9 (0.7–1.1); the first and second phases of the epidemic had Re of 0.84 (0.5–1.2) and 0.9 (0.6–1.2), respectively. We conclude that the intervention measures implemented in the second phase of the epidemic had comparable effects to those implemented during the first phase and that the Re of the epidemic was low, indicating that the Nigeria H5N1 HPAI epidemic was unstable.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsLimited Accessen_US
dcterms.audienceScientistsen_US
dcterms.available2012-08-27en_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationBett, B., Henning, J., Abdu, P., Okike, I., Poole, J., Young, J., Randolph, T.F. and Perry, B.D. 2012. Transmission rate and reproductive number of the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus during the December 2005-July 2008 epidemic in Nigeria. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 61(1): 60 - 68en_US
dcterms.extentpp. 60-68en_US
dcterms.issued2014-02en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserveden_US
dcterms.publisherHindawi Limiteden_US
dcterms.subjectanimal diseasesen_US
dcterms.subjectpoultryen_US
dcterms.subjectzoonosesen_US
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen_US

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