Rising global food prices and price variability: A blessing or a curse for global food supply?

Haile, Mekbib G. 2015. Rising global food prices and price variability: A blessing or a curse for global food supply? AGRODEP Working Paper 0018. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150121

This study examines the response of global aggregate acreage of selected crops to international prices and price variability. Applying up-to-date panel data econometric techniques, the study addresses whether the recent rise in international food prices is a blessing or a curse to the global supply of four key staple crops: wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice. The results reveal that rising own crop prices spur an increase in the worldwide aggregate acreage of these crops, whereas higher competing crop prices have the opposite effect. These results are robust across different types of panel data econometric estimators as well as the use of either future or spot prices. Our preferred acreage supply model specification further shows that fluctuations of own crop prices have a statistically significant negative (positive) effect on acreages of wheat (soybeans), but insignificant effects on acreages of corn and rice.