Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits

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cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
cg.coverage.countryUnited Kingdom
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2GB
cg.coverage.regionWestern EuropeNorthern Europe
cg.creator.identifierJulian Ramirez-Villegas: 0000-0002-8044-583X
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12577en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1354-1013en
cg.issue9en
cg.journalGlobal Change Biologyen
cg.subject.ciatCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONen
cg.subject.ciatCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATIONen
cg.subject.ciatPLANT BREEDINGen
cg.volume20en
dc.contributor.authorPolce, Chiaraen
dc.contributor.authorGarratt, Michael P.D.en
dc.contributor.authorTermansen, Metteen
dc.contributor.authorRamírez Villegas, Julián Armandoen
dc.contributor.authorChallinor, Andrew J.en
dc.contributor.authorLappage, Martin Gen
dc.contributor.authorBoatman, Nigel Den
dc.contributor.authorCrowe, Andrewen
dc.contributor.authorEndalew, Ayenew Meleseen
dc.contributor.authorPotts, Simon G.en
dc.contributor.authorSomerwill, Kate Een
dc.contributor.authorBiesmeijer, Jacobus C.en
dc.date.accessioned2014-08-18T14:32:54Zen
dc.date.available2014-08-18T14:32:54Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/42147
dc.titleClimate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficitsen
dcterms.abstractUnderstanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.available2014-05-02
dcterms.bibliographicCitationPolce C, Garratt MP, Termasen M, Ramírez Villegas J, Challinor AJ, Lappage MG, Boatman ND, Crowe A, Endalew AM, Potts SG, Somerwill KE, Biesmeijer JC. 2014. Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits . Global Change Biology Online version 20(9): 2815–2828.en
dcterms.extentp. 2815-2828en
dcterms.issued2014-09
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-3.0
dcterms.publisherWileyen
dcterms.subjectpollinationen
dcterms.subjectpolinizaciónen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectcambio climáticoen
dcterms.subjectecologyen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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