Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time

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cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
cg.coverage.countryNicaragua
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2NI
cg.coverage.regionCentral America
cg.coverage.regionLatin America
cg.creator.identifierPeter Läderach: 0000-0001-8708-6318
cg.creator.identifierJulian Ramirez-Villegas: 0000-0002-8044-583X
cg.creator.identifierAndy Jarvis: 0000-0001-6543-0798
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1788-9en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn0165-0009en
cg.issue1en
cg.journalClimate Changeen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.ciatCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONen
cg.volume141en
dc.contributor.authorLäderach, Peter R.D.en
dc.contributor.authorRamírez Villegas, Julián Armandoen
dc.contributor.authorNavarro Racines, Carlos Eduardoen
dc.contributor.authorZelaya, Carlosen
dc.contributor.authorMartínez Valle, Armando Isaacen
dc.contributor.authorJarvis, Andyen
dc.date.accessioned2016-11-03T19:57:26Zen
dc.date.available2016-11-03T19:57:26Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/77563
dc.titleClimate change adaptation of coffee production in space and timeen
dcterms.abstractCoffee is grown in more than 60 tropical countries on over 11 million ha by an estimated 25 million farmers, most of whom are smallholders. Several regional studies demonstrate the climate sensitivity of coffee (Coffea arabica) and the likely impact of climate change on coffee suitability, yield, increased pest and disease pressure and farmers’ livelihoods. The objectives of this paper are (i) to quantify the impact of progressive climate change to grow coffee and to produce high quality coffee in Nicaragua and (ii) to develop an adaptation framework across time and space to guide adaptation planning. We used coffee location and cup quality data from Nicaragua in combination with the Maxent and CaNaSTA crop suitability models, the WorldClim historical data and the CMIP3 global circulation models to predict the likely impact of climate change on coffee suitability and quality. We distinguished four different impact scenarios: Very high (coffee disappears), high (large negative changes), medium (little negative changes) and increase (positive changes) in climate suitability. During the Nicaraguan coffee roundtable, most promising adaptation strategies were identified, which we then used to develop a two-dimensional adaptation framework for coffee in time and space. Our analysis indicates that incremental adaptation may occur over short-term horizons at lower altitudes, whereas the same areas may undergo transformative adaptation in the longer term. At higher elevations incremental adaptation may be needed in the long term. The same principle and framework is applicable across coffee growing regions around the world.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2016-10-26
dcterms.bibliographicCitationLäderach, Peter; Ramirez–Villegas, Julian; Navarro-Racines, Carlos; Zelaya, Carlos; Martinez–Valle, Armando; Jarvis, Andy. 2016. Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time . Climate Change 1-16 p.en
dcterms.extentp. 47-62en
dcterms.issued2017-03
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherSpringeren
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectcoffeeen
dcterms.subjectadaptationen
dcterms.subjectsimulation modelsen
dcterms.subjectcaféen
dcterms.subjectcambio climáticoen
dcterms.subjectadaptaciónen
dcterms.subjectmodelos de simulaciónen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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