An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger

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cg.contributor.affiliationCentre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement, Franceen
cg.contributor.affiliationInstitut de Recherche pour le Développement, Franceen
cg.contributor.affiliationCentre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique Pour le Développementen
cg.contributor.affiliationAGRHYMETen
cg.coverage.countryNiger
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2NE
cg.coverage.regionWestern Africa
cg.coverage.regionSub-Saharan Africa
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2308en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1097-0088en
cg.issue5en
cg.journalInternational Journal of Climatologyen
cg.volume32en
dc.contributor.authorRoudier, P.en
dc.contributor.authorSultan, B.en
dc.contributor.authorQuirion, P.en
dc.contributor.authorBaron, C.en
dc.contributor.authorAlhassane, A.en
dc.contributor.authorTraoré, S.B.en
dc.contributor.authorMuller, B.en
dc.date.accessioned2022-07-20T06:45:37Zen
dc.date.available2022-07-20T06:45:37Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/120216
dc.titleAn ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Nigeren
dcterms.abstractThis work assesses the value of climate forecasts for millet growers in Niger. We quantify the potential value of three kinds of categorical forecasts assigning cumulated rainfall during the forthcoming rainy season by tercile (dry, normal, or humid): (i) a realistic imperfect tercile forecast; (ii) a perfect tercile forecast; and (iii) a perfect tercile forecast which includes a prediction of rainy season onset and offset dates. Eighteen management strategies are assessed. Corresponding yields are computed using the SARRA-H crop model then converted into utility by taking into account risk-aversion. Simulations over an historical 18-year period 1990-2007 show that benefit is lowest with imperfect tercile forecasts (+6.9%), higher (+11%) with perfect tercile forecasts, and reaches + 31% when enhanced adaptation strategies and additional climatic indices are available. These results show that improving existing forecast systems by including the prediction of onset and cessation of rainfall is of great value.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2011-03-01
dcterms.bibliographicCitationRoudier, P. Sultan, B. Quirion, P. Baron, C. Alhassane, A. Traoré, S.B. Muller, B. An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger. International Journal of Climatology. 2011, Volume 32, Issue 5: 759-771.en
dcterms.extentp. 759-771en
dcterms.issued2012-04
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserved
dcterms.publisherWileyen
dcterms.subjectagricultureen
dcterms.subjectnigeren
dcterms.subjectmilleten
dcterms.subjectafricaen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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