From crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somalia

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR single centreen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden
cg.contributor.initiativeLivestock and Climate
cg.coverage.countrySomalia
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2SO
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.creator.identifierJaabir Hussein: 0000-0002-1566-2459
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601x/ad6fa0en
cg.identifier.urlhttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2976-601X/ad6fa0en
cg.issue2en
cg.journalEnvironmental Research: Food Systemsen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.actionAreaSystems Transformation
cg.subject.impactAreaClimate adaptation and mitigation
cg.subject.impactPlatformClimate Change
cg.subject.sdgSDG 13 - Climate actionen
cg.volume1en
dc.contributor.authorHussein, Jaabiren
dc.contributor.authorBilotto, Francoen
dc.contributor.authorSircely, Jasonen
dc.contributor.authorMbui, Damarisen
dc.contributor.authorOmondi, Philipen
dc.contributor.authorSofia, S.C.en
dc.contributor.authorShah, Fahaden
dc.contributor.authorHarrison, T.M.en
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-14T14:56:01Zen
dc.date.available2025-01-14T14:56:01Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168971
dc.titleFrom crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somaliaen
dcterms.abstractWhile livelihoods of Somalian livestock smallholders rely heavily on seasonal climate conditions, little is known of long-term implications of the changing climate for this nation. Here, we quantify implications of the changing climate on the productivity and profitability of livestock smallholders across a rainfall gradient in northwestern Somalia. Using the Sustainable Grazing Systems (SGS) model, we explore 80 future climate realisations, with global climate model projections including low- and high-impact socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585), two climate horizons (2040 and 2080) and four case study farm regions. In general, future seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature relative to the baseline period (1981–2020) increased for most regions. Mean annual temperatures increased by 9%–14%, while cumulative annual precipitation increased by 37%–57% from mid to late century, respectively. Grassland production increased with later climate horizons, as higher average annual rainfall together with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide drove up growth rates in spring and autumn. Under the low emissions scenario (SSP245), changes in farm profit were modest or positive, ranging from negative 4% in Berbera–20% plus in Sheikh. Under the higher emissions scenario (SSP585), farm profits were higher, ranging from 23% to 42% above baseline profits, largely due to greater pasture production and lower requirements for supplementary feed. We conclude that future climates will benefit the productivity and profitability of smallholder farmers in Somalia, although more agile farm management will be required to cope with increased seasonal climate variability.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceAcademicsen
dcterms.audienceCGIARen
dcterms.audienceDevelopment Practitionersen
dcterms.available2024-09-16
dcterms.bibliographicCitationHussein, Jaabir, Bilotto, Franco, Sircely, Jason.,Mbui, Damaris, Omondi, Philip, Sofia, S.C., Shah, Fahad, Harrison, T.M. From crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somalia.Paper. ILRI. Kenyaen
dcterms.issued2024-12-20
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
dcterms.subjectclimate change adaptationen
dcterms.subjectlivestocken
dcterms.subjectlivestock productionen
dcterms.subjectsustainabilityen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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