Natural climate solutions
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Griscom B, Adams J, Ellis P, Houghton RA, Lomax G, Miteva D, Schlesinger W, Shoch D, Siikamäki JV, Smith P, Woodbury P, Zganjar C, Blackman A, Campan J, Conant R, Delgado C, Elias P, Gopalakrishna T, Hamsik MR, Herrero M, Kiesecker J, Landis E, Laestadius L, Leavitt SM, Minnemeyer S, Polasky S, Potapov P, Putz F, Sanderman J, Silvius M, Wollenberg E, Fargione J. 2017. Natural Climate solutions. PNAS, 114:11645-11650.
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Abstract/Description
Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y−1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y−1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e−1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2−1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.
Author ORCID identifiers
Justin Adams https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6214-9850
Peter Ellis https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7933-8298
Richard Houghton https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3298-7028
Guy Lomax https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9561-1506
Daniela Miteva https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9123-646X
William Schlesinger https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1391-0885
David Shoch https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0213-761X
Juha Siikamaki https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9870-297X
Pete Smith https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3784-1124
Peter Woodbury https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3954-7639
Chris Zganjar https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1786-4385
Allen Blackman https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3793-6120
Richard Conant https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7315-2476
Christopher Delgado https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9729-7984
Patricia Elias https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0596-5365
Trisha Gopalakrishna https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1448-4224
Mario Herrero https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7741-5090
Emily Landis https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3710-5810
Lars Laestadius https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5568-0504
Susan Minnemeyer https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4683-138X
Stephen Polasky https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4934-2434
Peter Potapov https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3977-0021
Francis Putz https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0051-6675
Jonathan Sanderman https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3215-1706
Marcel Silvius https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3955-2809
Eva Wollenberg https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4335-2562
Joseph Fargione https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0636-5380