Natural climate solutions

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Griscom B, Adams J, Ellis P, Houghton RA, Lomax G, Miteva D, Schlesinger W, Shoch D, Siikamäki JV, Smith P, Woodbury P, Zganjar C, Blackman A, Campan J, Conant R, Delgado C, Elias P, Gopalakrishna T, Hamsik MR, Herrero M, Kiesecker J, Landis E, Laestadius L, Leavitt SM, Minnemeyer S, Polasky S, Potapov P, Putz F, Sanderman J, Silvius M, Wollenberg E, Fargione J. 2017. Natural Climate solutions. PNAS, 114:11645-11650.

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Abstract/Description

Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y−1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y−1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e−1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2−1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.

Author ORCID identifiers

Bronson Griscom  
Justin Adams  
Peter Ellis  
Richard Houghton  
Guy Lomax  
Daniela Miteva  
William Schlesinger  
David Shoch  
Juha Siikamaki  
Pete Smith  
Peter Woodbury  
Chris Zganjar  
Allen Blackman  
Richard Conant  
Christopher Delgado  
Patricia Elias  
Trisha Gopalakrishna  
Mario Herrero  
Emily Landis  
Lars Laestadius  
Susan Minnemeyer  
Stephen Polasky  
Peter Potapov  
Francis Putz  
Jonathan Sanderman  
Marcel Silvius  
Eva Wollenberg  
Joseph Fargione  
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