A crop-specific and time-variant spatial framework for characterizing rainfed wheat production environments in Ethiopia

Gelagay, H. S., Leroux, L., Tamene, L., Chernet, M., Blasch, G., Tibebe, D., Abera, W., Sida, T., Tesfaye, K., Corbeels, M., & Silva, J. V. (2025). A crop-specific and time-variant spatial framework for characterizing rainfed wheat production environments in Ethiopia. Agricultural Systems, 227, 104360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104360

Context: Characterizing crop production environments is essential for targeted interventions, resource allocation, scaling localized findings, and agricultural decision-making. However, existing methods lack the spatial and temporal rigor required to capture spatial and temporal variability in crop production environments. Objective: This study aimed to introduce a data-driven and dynamic spatial framework that integrates crop area mapping with the delineation of agro-ecological spatial units (ASUs) to characterize Ethiopia's rainfed wheat crop production environments. Methods: Annual rainfed wheat areas for the 2021 and 2022 Meher growing seasons were mapped using an ensemble machine-learning approach, leveraging time-series satellite images and environmental data. Dynamic ASUs were delineated using pixel- and object-based clustering methods, considering short-term changes (annual ASUs for 2021 and 2022) and longer-term trends (ASUs developed using data aggregated over the period 2016-2022). Clustering was based on key biophysical variables, including climatic, soil, topographic, and vegetation indices derived from satellite images that capture crop growth and development over space and time. Results and conclusions: The framework captured the spatial and temporal variability of wheat production environments, demonstrating its scalability across space and time. Rainfed wheat area mapping across two growing seasons revealed an expansion in rainfed wheat areas, highlighting the evolving nature of rainfed wheat cultivation in Ethiopia. The integration of rainfed wheat area mapping with dynamic ASU delineation identified five main production environments for wheat in Ethiopia, allowing to better target future research and development activities toward increasing wheat productivity in the country. Significance: The developed framework can facilitate agronomic assessments and inform the targeting of agricultural interventions, with potential applications that extend beyond this case study of rainfed wheat in Ethiopia.