Assessment of rice self-sufficiency in 2025 in eight African countries

van Oort, P.A.J., Saito, K., Tanaka, A., Amovin-Assagba, E., Van Bussel, L.G.J., Van Wart, J., de Groot, H., van Ittersum, M.K., Cassman, K.G. and Wopereis, M.C.S. 2015. Assessment of rice self-sufficiency in 2025 in eight African countries. Global Food Security. Volume 5:39-49.

Most African countries are far from self-sufficient in meeting their rice consumption; in eight countries the production: consumption ratio, ranged from 0.16 to 1.18 in 2012. We show that for the year 2025, with population growth, diet change and yield increase on existing land (intensification), countries cannot become fully self-sufficient in rice. This implies that for the future, a mixture of area expansion and imports will be needed on top of yield gap closure. Further research is needed for identification of most suitable new land for rice area expansion and areas that should be protected.