Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Guatemala

Castellanos, Edwin J.; Thomas, Timothy S.; and Dunston, Shanila. 2018. Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Guatemala. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1789. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146593

Climate change will be a significant challenge to farmers in Guatemala. In this report, we use climate models, crop models, and economic models to evaluate the impact of climate change at 50-kilometer resolution inside Guatemala and at the national level. We find that both maize and beans will likely have their yields set back by around 14 percent by climate change by 2050. Sugarcane could lose quite a bit more, maybe as high as 35 percent. And that there could be considerable disruption to coffee production, as coffee grown in lower elevations today will likely be not economically viable by 2050. Much can be done to reduce the adverse impact of climate change, and as a result of the analysis done here, we make recommendations to policymakers for actions that they should take to help farmers adapt to the changing climate.