Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Galwayen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
cg.contributor.donorEuropean Unionen
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden
cg.contributor.donorScience Foundation Irelanden
cg.contributor.donorIrish Aiden
cg.contributor.initiativeSustainable Animal Productivity
cg.contributor.initiativeLivestock and Climate
cg.coverage.countryEthiopia
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ET
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africa
cg.creator.identifierJean Hanson: 0000-0002-3648-2641
cg.creator.identifierChris Jones: 0000-0001-9096-9728
cg.creator.identifierPhilip Thornton: 0000-0002-1854-0182
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-23461-wen
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn2045-2322en
cg.issue1en
cg.journalScientific Reportsen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.actionAreaResilient Agrifood Systems
cg.subject.ilriANIMAL FEEDINGen
cg.subject.ilriCLIMATE CHANGEen
cg.subject.ilriCROP-LIVESTOCKen
cg.subject.ilriDAIRYINGen
cg.subject.ilriFORAGESen
cg.subject.ilriLIVESTOCKen
cg.subject.impactAreaPoverty reduction, livelihoods and jobs
cg.subject.impactAreaClimate adaptation and mitigation
cg.volume12en
dc.contributor.authorBrychkova, Galinaen
dc.contributor.authorKekae, K.en
dc.contributor.authorMcKeown, Peter C.en
dc.contributor.authorHanson, Jeanen
dc.contributor.authorJones, Christopher S.en
dc.contributor.authorThornton, Philip K.en
dc.contributor.authorSpillane, Charlesen
dc.date.accessioned2022-11-29T18:07:02Zen
dc.date.available2022-11-29T18:07:02Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/125703
dc.titleClimate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systemsen
dcterms.abstractForage grasses are central feed resources for livestock globally. In Ethiopian dairy systems, they serve as feed sources during both wet and dry seasons, yet escalating climate change could threaten forage supply. Here, we investigate projected climate change impacts on three forage grasses currently recommended for Ethiopian dairy systems. We determine areas of geographical suitability for each species using three climate projections generated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) and calculate their ability to meet predicted dry matter demand under four scenarios for livestock intensification and land availability. By 2050, Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) is likely to be negatively affected by climate change in regions such as Tigray, while Rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) and Napier grass (Cenchrus purpureus) may have improved suitability under future climates. Our findings suggest that feed demands could theoretically be met by production of these forage grasses under current and future climates. However, if land availability is reduced and herd composition shifts towards higher-productivity exotic breeds, forage resources will not meet cattle demand even with improved agronomic management.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.available2022-11-28
dcterms.bibliographicCitationBrychkova, G., Kekae, K., McKeown, P.C., Hanson, J., Jones, C.S., Thornton, P. and Spillane, C. 2022. Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems. Scientific Reports 12:20512.en
dcterms.issued2022-11-28
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherSpringeren
dcterms.subjectanimal feedingen
dcterms.subjectforageen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectgoatsen
dcterms.subjectsmall ruminantsen
dcterms.subjectdairyingen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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CGIAR Initiative on Livestock and Climate
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