Upgrading the smallholder dairy value chain: A system dynamics ex-ante impact assessment in Tanzania's Kilosa district

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of New Englanden
cg.contributor.affiliationCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australiaen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.crpLivestocken
cg.contributor.donorIrish Aiden
cg.coverage.countryTanzaniaen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2TZen
cg.coverage.regionAfricaen
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africaen
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Africaen
cg.creator.identifierAmos Omore: 0000-0001-9213-9891en
cg.creator.identifierDerek Baker: 0000-0001-6020-6973en
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1017/s0022029919000840en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1469-7629en
cg.issue4en
cg.journalJournal of Dairy Researchen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.ilriDAIRYINGen
cg.subject.ilriIMPACT ASSESSMENTen
cg.subject.ilriLIVELIHOODSen
cg.subject.ilriLIVESTOCKen
cg.subject.ilriRESEARCHen
cg.subject.ilriVALUE CHAINSen
cg.volume86en
dc.contributor.authorDizyee, Kanaren
dc.contributor.authorBaker, Dereken
dc.contributor.authorOmore, Amos O.en
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-02T13:53:08Zen
dc.date.available2019-12-02T13:53:08Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/105986
dc.titleUpgrading the smallholder dairy value chain: A system dynamics ex-ante impact assessment in Tanzania's Kilosa districten
dcterms.abstractThis paper examines ex-ante impacts of two policy interventions that improve productivity of local-breed cows through artificial insemination (AI) and producers’ access to distant markets through a dairy market hub. The majority of cattle in Kilosa district in Tanzania are local low productivity breeds kept by smallholders and agro-pastoralists. Milk production is seasonal, which constrains producers’ access to distant urban markets, constrains producers’ incomes and restricts profitability in dairy processing. We developed and evaluated an integrated system dynamics (SD) simulation model that captures many relevant feedbacks between the biological dynamics of dairy cattle production, the economics of milk market access, and the impacts of rainfall as an environmental factor. Our analysis indicated that in the short (1 year) and medium (5-year) term, policy interventions have a negative effect on producers’ income due to high AI costs. However, in the long term (5+ years), producers’ income from dairy cattle activities markedly increases (by, on average, 7% per year). The results show the potential for upgrading the smallholder dairy value chain in Kilosa, but achievement of this result may require financial support to producers in the initial stages (first 5 years) of the interventions, particularly to offset AI costs, as well as additional consideration of post-farm value chain costs. Furthermore, institutional aspects of dairy market hub have substantial effects on trade-offs amongst performance measures (e.g. higher profit vs. milk consumption at producer's household) with gain in cumulative profit coming at the expense of a proportional and substantial reduction in home milk consumption.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.available2019-11-29en
dcterms.bibliographicCitationDizyee, K., Baker, D. and Omore, A. 2019. Upgrading the smallholder dairy valuechain: A system dynamics ex-ante impact assessment in Tanzania’s Kilosa district. Journal of Dairy Research 86(4): 440-449.en
dcterms.extentp. 440-449en
dcterms.issued2019-11en
dcterms.languageenen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0en
dcterms.publisherCambridge University Pressen
dcterms.subjectdairyingen
dcterms.subjectvalue systemsen
dcterms.subjectimpact assessmenten
dcterms.subjectsmallholdersen
dcterms.subjectlivestocken
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen

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