A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study

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cg.contributor.crpWater, Land and Ecosystemsen_US
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2016.05.005en_US
cg.identifier.wlethemeDecision Analysis and Informationen_US
cg.issn0957-4174en_US
cg.journalExpert Systems with Applicationsen_US
cg.volume60en_US
dc.contributor.authorYet, Barbarosen_US
dc.contributor.authorConstantinou, Anthonyen_US
dc.contributor.authorFenton, Normanen_US
dc.contributor.authorNeil, Martinen_US
dc.contributor.authorLuedeling, Eikeen_US
dc.contributor.authorShepherd, Keith D.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-05-23T10:23:33Zen_US
dc.date.available2016-05-23T10:23:33Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/74285en_US
dc.titleA Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case studyen_US
dcterms.abstractSuccessful implementation of major projects requires careful management of uncertainty and risk. Yet such uncertainty is rarely effectively calculated when analysing project costs and benefits. This paper presents a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling framework to calculate the costs, benefits, and return on investment of a project over a specified time period, allowing for changing circumstances and trade-offs. The framework uses hybrid and dynamic BNs containing both discrete and continuous variables over multiple time stages. The BN framework calculates costs and benefits based on multiple causal factors including the effects of individual risk factors, budget deficits, and time value discounting, taking account of the parameter uncertainty of all continuous variables. The framework can serve as the basis for various project management assessments and is illustrated using a case study of an agricultural development project.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsLimited Accessen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationYet, Barbaros;Constantinou, Anthony;Fenton, Norman;Neil, Martin;Luedeling, Eike;Shepherd, Keith.2016.A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study.Elsevier.doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2016.05.005en_US
dcterms.extentpp. 141-155en_US
dcterms.issued2016-10en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserveden_US
dcterms.publisherElsevieren_US
dcterms.subjectproject managementen_US
dcterms.subjectrisk analysisen_US
dcterms.subjectcost-benefit analysisen_US
dcterms.subjectbayesian networksen_US
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen_US

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