Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution

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cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Center for Tropical Agricultureen
cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
cg.coverage.countryCosta Rica
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2CR
cg.coverage.regionCentral America
cg.coverage.regionLatin America
cg.creator.identifierPablo Imbach: 0000-0003-4078-6063
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0193570en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1932-6203en
cg.issue4en
cg.journalPLOS ONEen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.ciatCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONen
cg.subject.ciatCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATIONen
cg.volume13en
dc.contributor.authorImbach, Pabloen
dc.contributor.authorChou, Sin Chanen
dc.contributor.authorLyra, Andréen
dc.contributor.authorRodrigues, Danielaen
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez, Danielen
dc.contributor.authorLatinovic, Draganen
dc.contributor.authorSiqueira, Gracielleen
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Adanen
dc.contributor.authorGarofolo, Lucasen
dc.contributor.authorGeorgiou, Selenaen
dc.date.accessioned2018-05-10T16:00:15Zen
dc.date.available2018-05-10T16:00:15Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/92503
dc.titleFuture climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolutionen
dcterms.abstractThe objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961–1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021–2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021–2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2018-04-25
dcterms.bibliographicCitationImbach, Pablo, Chou, Sin Chan, Lyra, André, Rodrigues, Daniela, Rodriguez, Daniel, Latinovic, Dragan, Siqueira, Gracielle, Silva, Adan, Garofolo, Lucas, Georgiou, Selena (2018). Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution. PLoS One, 13(4), e0193570.en
dcterms.extente0193570en
dcterms.issued2018
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectcambio climáticoen
dcterms.subjectrainen
dcterms.subjectsimulation modelsen
dcterms.subjectmodelos de simulaciónen
dcterms.subjectseasonsen
dcterms.subjectestaciones del añoen
dcterms.subjectdroughten
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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