Global anthropogenic effects on meteorological—hydrological—soil moisture drought propagation: historical analysis and future projection

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cg.contributor.affiliationChina University of Geosciences (Wuhan)en_US
cg.contributor.affiliationWuhan Universityen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationNanjing University of Information Science & Technologyen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationHubei Luojia Laboratoryen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationChinese Academy of Sciencesen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationHydropower and Ecology of the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistanen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Texas at Austinen_US
cg.contributor.donorNatural Science Foundation of China programen_US
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132755en_US
cg.identifier.iwmilibraryH053639en_US
cg.identifier.urlhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169425000939/pdfft?md5=8d427746d036ebabcc94f07218f1cd2a&pid=1-s2.0-S0022169425000939-main.pdfen_US
cg.issn1879-2707en_US
cg.journalJournal of Hydrologyen_US
dc.contributor.authorWang, S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorHuang, S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorWang, C.en_US
dc.contributor.authorZhang, X.en_US
dc.contributor.authorWu, J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGulakhmadov, A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorNiyogi, D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorChen, N.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-26T06:16:00Zen_US
dc.date.available2025-03-26T06:16:00Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/173872en_US
dc.titleGlobal anthropogenic effects on meteorological—hydrological—soil moisture drought propagation: historical analysis and future projectionen_US
dcterms.abstractIntensified anthropogenic activities in the 21st century have introduced profound and widespread impacts on drought dynamics and their propagation. However, the extent to which large-scale human-induced forces, such as greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and aerosols, influence the propagation of drought from meteorological to hydrological and soil moisture droughts at the global level remains insufficiently understood. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive quantitative analysis, integrating historical simulations of various anthropogenic and climatic drivers with future projections based on different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the CMIP6. Key features of drought propagation—such as propagation time, probability, and drought characteristics—were assessed across distinct historical and future scenarios to elucidate the anthropogenic influences. The findings indicate that human-driven forces, particularly GHG emissions, have significantly influenced both meteorological-hydrological and meteorological-soil moisture drought propagation. Notably, anthropogenic factors led to a general reduction in drought propagation time, with GHGs playing a dominant role. Furthermore, GHG emissions were found to markedly increase the probability, duration, and severity of propagated droughts, especially across northern North America, southern Africa, and northeastern Asia. Future projections reveal a slight decline in meteorological-hydrological drought propagation probability during 2015–2100, while meteorological-soil moisture drought propagation probability shows a pronounced upward trend. Additionally, our analysis underscores the critical role of global warming and vegetation changes in shaping drought propagation patterns. These results offer valuable insights for enhancing drought early warning systems in a changing climate.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsLimited Accessen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationWang, S.; Huang, S.; Wang, C.; Zhang, X.; Wu, J.; Gulakhmadov, A.; Niyogi, D.; Chen, N. 2025. Global anthropogenic effects on meteorological—hydrological—soil moisture drought propagation: historical analysis and future projection. Journal of Hydrology, 653:132755. [doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132755]en_US
dcterms.issued2025-01-28en_US
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserveden_US
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen_US

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