A bounds analysis of world food futures: Global agriculture through to 2050

Simple item page
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Minnesotaen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Californiaen
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12072en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1467-8489en
cg.issue4en
cg.journalAustralian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economicsen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.ilriAGRICULTUREen
cg.subject.ilriFOOD SECURITYen
cg.volume58en
dc.contributor.authorPardey, Philip G.en
dc.contributor.authorBeddow, J.M.en
dc.contributor.authorHurley, T.M.en
dc.contributor.authorBeatty, T.K.M.en
dc.contributor.authorEidman, V.R.en
dc.date.accessioned2022-09-07T11:50:44Zen
dc.date.available2022-09-07T11:50:44Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/121157
dc.titleA bounds analysis of world food futures: Global agriculture through to 2050en
dcterms.abstractThe notion that global agricultural output needs to double by 2050 is oft repeated. Using a new International Agricultural Prospects (iAP) Model, to project global agricultural consumption and production, we find in favour of a future where aggregate agricultural consumption (in tonnes) increases more modestly, by around 69 per cent (1.3 per cent per year) from 2010 to 2050. The principal driver of this result is a deceleration in population growth in the decades ahead. Per capita income growth and changing demographics (generally ageing population) have significant but secondary roles in spurring growth in agricultural consumption, as does our projected growth in the use of agricultural feedstocks to meet the growth we envisage in biofuel demand. Worldwide (but not equally everywhere), crop yield growth has generally slowed over the past decade or so. Notwithstanding a projected continuance of this slowdown, the prospective improvements in crop productivity are still sufficient to reduce per capita cropland use, such that land devoted to crops would need to increase by less than 10 per cent. Even in our upper‐bound (high‐consumption) scenario, we estimate that there remains sufficient productive agricultural land to more than meet the demand without ploughing‐in additional forest‐dominated lands.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.available2014-09-17en
dcterms.bibliographicCitationPardey, P.G., Beddow, J.M., Hurley, T.M., Beatty, T.K.M. and Eidman, V.R. 2014. A bounds analysis of world food futures: Global agriculture through to 2050. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 58:571–589.en
dcterms.extentp. 571-589en
dcterms.issued2014-10en
dcterms.languageenen
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserveden
dcterms.publisherWileyen
dcterms.subjectfood securityen
dcterms.subjectagricultureen
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen

Files

License bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.75 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

ILRI BecA articles