Extreme weather and civil war: Does drought fuel conflict in Somalia through livestock price shocks?
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Maystadt, Jean-François; and Ecker, Olivier. 2014. Extreme weather and civil war: Does drought fuel conflict in Somalia through livestock price shocks? American Journal of Agricultural Economics 96(4): 1157-1182. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau010
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A growing body of evidence shows a causal relationship between extreme weather events and civil conflict incidence at the global level. We find that this causality is also valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in a within‐country setting over a short time frame in the case of Somalia. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length raises the likelihood of conflict by 62%. We also find that drought affects conflict through livestock price changes, establishing livestock markets as the primary channel of transmission in Somalia.