CGIAR Initiative on Seed Equal

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/117887

Part of the CGIAR Action Area on Genetic Innovation

Primary CGIAR impact area: Poverty reduction, livelihoods and jobs

https://www.cgiar.org/initiative/06-seedqual-delivering-genetic-gains-in-farmers-fields/

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Now showing 1 - 20 of 303

Digital Revolution in Farmer Fields: VarScout Unveils Kenya's Varietal Landscape – The Case of Potato
(Working Paper, 2025-01) Gatto, M.; Borus, D.; Malit, J.; Kihiu, E.; Barker, I.; Echessa, L.; Soto-Torres, J.; Meyer, A.
This paper reports on data collected through VarScout, a digital crowdsourcing tool, to monitor varietal adoption, turnover, seed use, and yields. Key findings for the case of potato in Kenya include: (1) Shangi is the dominant variety, covering 73% of the area, followed by Steven (7%) and Sherekea (6%); (2) the weighted average varietal age is 9.3 years, with newer varieties performing better; (3) 19.5% of farmers use clean seed, with higher adoption in Nakuru (21.5%) compared to Bungoma (1.5%); (4) farmers using clean seed achieve 1.5 t/ha higher yields than those using saved seed. The study demonstrates the utility of VarScout for cost-effective data collection, while highlighting the need for further methodological improvements and ground-truthing. The findings underscore the significant impact of CIP's breeding efforts, with over 50% of the pedigree of key popular varieties linked to CIP's genebank. The paper provides insights to inform seed system interventions and guide future breeding priorities in Kenya.
Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data
(Journal Article, 2025-03) Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Haile, Beliyou; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Omoigui, Lucky O.; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Kumar, P. Lava; Wossen, Tesfamicheal
CONTEXT Despite the importance of enhanced seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, evidence remains scarce regarding the nature and possible drivers of returns to formal sector quality assurance systems, including certified seeds production in countries like Nigeria that focus significantly on the formal-sector seed systems. OBJECTIVE This study narrows this knowledge gap by estimating the effect of the quantity of certified seeds produced and the spatial variations where they are produced on the use of certified seeds and yields. We also assess the yield effects of certified seeds use and their relationship with agroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions. METHODS We combine nationally-representative farm-household survey panel data with spatial data on the headquarters locations of seed companies, the quantity of certified seeds for maize, cowpea, and rice that they produce, and spatially explicit agroecological data. We apply panel fixed effects methods as well as instrumental-variable methods to address potential endogeneity associated with certified seeds use while also controlling for the use of improved varieties to separate their effects from the effects of certified seeds. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that the availability of certified seeds—captured by indicators of certified seeds produced by seed companies headquartered in the states of survey respondents—is associated with positive but declining marginal effects on certified seeds use and yields. These results are robust when we also consider the potential within-state heterogeneity in the proximity to seed company headquarters, as well as potential spillovers from the nearest adjacent states. The yield effects of certified seeds are heterogeneous and depend on agroclimatic conditions and farmers' socioeconomic characteristics. The use of certified seeds is somewhat higher in areas with higher yield effects after controlling for certified seeds production. These patterns partly lead to observed non-linearities in certified seeds use because certified seeds may be more likely to be used by farmers with higher expected returns than farmers with lower expected returns. These results underscore the importance of spatially targeted efforts in enhancing certified seeds production capacity, together with the exploration of intermediate quality standards in the short term where costs of seed certification are high relative to returns. SIGNIFICANCE The study provides unique quantitative evidence in a nationally representative framework in an African country that returns to seed certification systems in the current setting significantly vary depending on contexts, including agroclimatic conditions.
Seed Requirement Estimation (SRE) Tool
(Presentation, 2024-12) Rajendran, S.; Ogero, K.; Namanda, S.; Low, Jan W.; McEwan, M.
A Machine Learning Approach for Estimating sweetpotato Cultivation Areas in Uganda
(Brief, 2024-12) Rajendran, S.
Enhancing the Seed Sector Decision-Making with the Business Investment Decision (BID) Tool – a brief on BID tool
(Brief, 2024-12) International Potato Center
Analysis of return on investment of sweetpotato seed system interventions in Uganda
(Working Paper, 2024-12) Feukeng, F.; Rajendran, S.; Otieno, D.; Okello, J.J.
It is becoming increasingly important for researchers to document the economic and social benefits of new agricultural technologies and efforts made in the research and development of such technologies. This is necessitated by scarcity of financial resources and the increasing pressure from different stakeholders for research and development to generate welfare improvement changes at the smallholder farmer level in sub-Saharan Africa. The current study analyzed the economic impact of the seed system interventions implemented in Uganda by the International Potato Center through two projects: Development and Delivery of Biofortified Crops at scale (DDBIO) and Genetic Advances and Innovative Seed Systems for Sweetpotato (SWEETGAINS). The projects received US$1.463 million and US$ 15 million from the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development, the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The economic surplus and cost-benefit analysis approaches were utilized to estimate aggregate economic benefits and return on investment. Results revealed that during the 23-year lifespan, for every dollar invested, US$ 88.07 was generated for a 6% discount rate, while at a 12% discount rate, every dollar invested generated US$ 82.88 in return. Similarly, the net present value at 6% was US$ 1,626.38 million, while at 12%, it was US$ 1,729.78 million. The overall internal rate of return (IRR) was found to be 50%. Thus, the investments generated positive returns and should be upscaled.
Machine Learning Approach for Prediction of Area Under Cultivation and Production for Vegetatively Propagated Crops
(Working Paper, 2024-12) Ahishakiye, E.; Ogero, K.; Namada, S.; Rajendran, S.
Vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs) such as cassava, sweet potatoes, and bananas, are a key component in ensuring food security for the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In agricultural planning and seed system management, it is essential to accurately predict the area under cultivation, production volumes, and yield rates of these crops. Traditional forecasting methods have fallen short in capturing the complexity of VPC production, as there are nonlinear relationships and dynamic environmental factors at play. This paper overcomes these shortcomings by using machine learning models to enhance the forecasting accuracy using data from the Seed Requirement Estimation (SRE) tool. We applied Random Forest, AdaBoost, and a Stacked Ensemble Model to forecast the area under cultivation and production volume in tons. After hyperparameter tuning, the Stacked Model performed better, yielding R² values of 0.8260 for area prediction and 0.7883 for production forecasting, outperforming the individual models. The results reflect the potential of the ensemble learning model to improve the accuracy of agricultural forecasts. The study emphasizes the role that advanced predictive models can play in enhancing agricultural policy decisions based on data, optimizing seed distribution, and ensuring food security in VPC-dependent regions.
Sweetpotato and Cassava Seed Requirement Estimates (SRE) Workshop at Geita, Tanzania
(Report, 2024-12) International Potato Center
Farmers’ demand for quality and nutritionally enhanced sweetpotato planting material: Evidence from experimental auctions in Rwanda
(Working Paper, 2024-12) Okumu, B.; Rajendran, S.; Okello, J.J.; Maredia, M.; Ward, P.; Gatto, M.; Nshimiyimana, J.; Kilwinger, F.; Sindi, K.; David, S.
In sub-Saharan Africa, most farmers source sweetpotato vines from neighboring farmers or their plots during the previous season. However, in the absence of “clean” vines produced with good agricultural 13 practices, farmer-to-farmer vine exchanges and own-saved vines tend to encourage the accumulation of pests and diseases that ultimately affect yields. Despite this, the demand for nutritionally rich variety and biofortified crop orange-fleshed sweetpotato (OFSP) is limited due to farmers’ unfamiliarity with the product and its novel attributes. In this study, we investigate demand for quality sweetpotato vine and 17 nutritional attributes of the crop using a second price experimental auction approach to determine the 18 premium price, farmers are willing to pay for these attributes and investigate drivers of market demand. 19 The study revealed that in the absence of information on the source of vines, maturity and resistance to 20 diseases, farmers are willing to pay a premium of about 35 Rwandan Francs for high-quality vines sourced 21 from the trained seed multipliers. However, with the provision of information on the source of vines, 22 maturity, and resistance to diseases of the vines, the premium price increases significantly to 133.71 23 Rwandan francs and to 107.22 Rwandan Francs after the provision of visual information depicting the 24 performance of the vines in demonstration plots. The premium price also increases significantly for vines 25 sourced from neighbors to about 74.35 Rwandan francs, which further increases to 151.53 Rwandan francs 26 when nutrition information is provided to the farmers. It is therefore evident that the provision of 27 information and demonstration of the performance of the crops is important for the adoption of improved 28 variety and increases the effective demand.
Scenarios of seed purchase versus free sourcing and motivations for seed source choice. The case of sweetpotato in Uganda
(Report, 2024-12) Namirumi, J.; Kilwinger, F.; Ynte van, D.; Rajendran, S.
Farmers traditionally source sweetpotato planting materials from various outlets. Their decisions on sourcing and purchasing of sweetpotato planting materials are influenced by a complex interplay of factors that are important in the designing of effective seed system interventions. Nonetheless, most studies primarily focus on the adoption of improved seeds and use of formal seed systems. They often emphasize correlations and thereby overlook the broader goals and motivations driving farmers' choices. This study applied economic psychology principles through a means-end chain (MEC) analysis to investigate attributes farmers' associate with different sweetpotato seed sources, the perceived benefits of these attributes, and the personal values driving their decision-making processes. Data used was data collected using a combination of scenario elicitation, attribute elicitation, laddering interviews, and analyzed using descriptive and MEC analyses. Results reveal that compared to farmers who freely source sweetpotato seed, farmers who purchase sweetpotato seed are more involved in farmer groups and training programs. They source information from formal sources like research institutes unlike their counterparts who rely more on community networks and publicly accessible information. While introduction of new varieties is a common circumstance for purchasing seed, financial constraints lead many farmers to rely on free sources within their communities. The Hierarchical Value Map (HVM) reveals that farmers’ motivations for seed source choice are shaped by both immediate agricultural objectives and long-term aspirations for financial security, health and community cohesion. Farmers prioritize attributes such as “clean seed”, “vigorous vines”, and “timely delivery” linking these to immediate goals like achieving high yields, reducing costs and expanding farms. Consequently, contributing to economic benefits like increased income and financial stability and leading to essential outcomes such as health, food security and nutrition as well as strong social ties fostered by social practices like vine sharing. The sweetpotato seed business can therefore thrive by addressing core needs including high quality, accessibility and socially supportive seed systems delivering not only economic returns but also contributing to household nutrition, health and community resilience.
Business Investment Decision (BID) Tool for strengthening seed business
(Working Paper, 2024-12) Jayanth, R.; Rajendran, S.
The seed sector is critical to agricultural productivity, yet entrepreneurs in this space face significant challenges, including limited financial management skills, operational inefficiencies, financial constraints, and lack of market reach. These issues are compounded by the reliance on ad-hoc, manual processes for decision-making. To address these challenges, this report introduces the Business Investment Decision (BID) tool, a comprehensive digital platform designed to empower seed-sector entrepreneurs and businesses. The BID tool offers structured formats for financial planning, investment analysis, and business growth, enabling users to make informed decisions. Currently available in Excel and web-based formats, with plans for a desktop version, the tool includes modules for business background, business environment, financial management, budgeting, valuation, risk management, and more. Its target users include small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the seed sector, as well as businesses in other industries at various stages of development. The tool has been validated through applications in diverse settings, including RTB EAGEL in Nairobi and Potato ARC Technology in India. Potential benefits of the BID tool include simplified business planning, ease of use for beginners, the ability to raise funds, and enhanced strategic decision-making. Future development plans include expanding the web version, integrating artificial intelligence for industry comparisons and strategy formulation, incorporating real-time data, and enabling seamless integration with accounting systems. Keywords Business Investment Decision (BID) tool, financial management, decision-making frameworks, business growth, investment analysis, digital platform, operational efficiency, financial planning, budgeting, risk management.
Operational Business Plan for Root, Tuber and Banana East Africa Germplasm Exchange Laboratory (RTB EAGEL)
(Working Paper, 2024-12) Jayanth, R.; Rajendran, S.
Technical Report on Business Investment Decision (BID) Tool
(Report, 2024-12) Jayanth, R.; Rajendran, S.
The seed sector is critical to agricultural productivity, yet entrepreneurs in this space face significant challenges, including limited financial management skills, operational inefficiencies, financial constraints, and lack of market reach. These issues are compounded by the reliance on ad-hoc, manual processes for decision-making. To address these challenges, this report introduces the Business Investment Decision (BID) tool, a comprehensive digital platform designed to empower seed-sector entrepreneurs and businesses. The BID tool offers structured formats for financial planning, investment analysis, and business growth, enabling users to make informed decisions. Currently available in Excel and web-based formats, with plans for a desktop version, the tool includes modules for business background, business environment, financial management, budgeting, valuation, risk management, and more. Its target users include small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the seed sector, as well as businesses in other industries at various stages of development. The tool has been validated through applications in diverse settings, including RTB EAGEL in Nairobi and Potato ARC Technology in India. Potential benefits of the BID tool include simplified business planning, ease of use for beginners, the ability to raise funds, and enhanced strategic decision-making. Future development plans include expanding the web version, integrating artificial intelligence for industry comparisons and strategy formulation, incorporating real-time data, and enabling seamless integration with accounting systems.
Business investment decision tools. User guide
(Manual, 2024-12) Rajendran, S.; Jayanth, R.; Martin, O.
Business Investment Decision (BID) Tools are designed to provide a comprehensive, modular digital platform for business enterprises in order to empower them with structured decision-making frameworks for financial planning, investment analysis, and business growth. These tools were developed through the Seed Equal Initiatives Project of the CGIAR. The tool enables business enterprise operators to be able to develop an operational business plan inclusive of your business details, business environments (SWOT & PESTEL Analysis), Business Models (Value Proposition Canvas, Value Maps & Business Model Canvas), Operations (Product workflows), financial management (variable costs & fixed costs), sales projections, Partnership Development and Business Risk Management. Business details fed into the system is used to generate the full business plan and financial reports as seen in the user guide. The BID tools comes in two versions; 1. Web version; accessible through http://bidtool.cipotato.org or https://mt.co.ug/bid_tools_bplan 2. Excel Version which is downloadable through the same web links above The BID Tool is divided into ten important modules; 1. Business Background 2. Business Environment 3. Business Model 4. Operations (Workflows and Stages) 5. Financial Management a. Costing b. Financial Statements c. Ratio analysis 6. Budgeting 7. Valuation 8. Diagnostic Report 9. Partnership 10. Risk Management
Inspection and certification manual for cassava planting material in Uganda
(Journal Article, 2024-12) Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Uganda
The National Seed Certification Services (NSCS), Department of Crop Protection, Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry, and Fisheries (MAAIF) has designated inspectors of cassava planting material (seed) to use this handbook. The inspectors will guarantee that the produced cassava seed satisfies the necessary requirements. It will also be utilized by seed growers, training facilities, and cassava seed merchants (business owners), for whom a formal certificate attests to the quality of the seed produced. For cassava seed to be eligible for certification, the handbook outlines the minimal requirements that must be fulfilled in the tissue culture lab, screen house, and fields. Land requirements, isolation distances, degrees of disease and pest tolerance, and seed standards are some of the requirements documented here for ensuring compliance for quality seed production in the country
Translating theory into practice: a flexible decision-making tool to support the design and implementation of climate-smart agriculture projects
(Journal Article, 2024-08) Walsh, Conor; Renn, Mara; Klauser, Dominik; de Pinto, Alessandro; Haggar, Jeremy; Rouf Abdur; Hopkins, Richard J.; Farhad Zamil
Context: Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is a conceptual framework for responding climate-related risk in agriculture across the three pillars of Mitigation, Resilience, and Production. Existing tools have been developed which seek to operationalize the CSA concept to evaluate and benchmark progress; each of which have their own relative strengths and weaknesses. Objective: The translation of this concept into actionable projects/portfolios hence requires the careful evaluation of potential trade-offs and synergies between these three pillars. The hereby presented decision-making tool aims to offer a basis for a structured evaluation of such trade-offs and synergies. Methods: It does so by assessing five different outcome pathways on how they contribute to a project's performance across the three pillars of CSA. We aspire that the use of this tool will allow for more deliberate design and implementation of projects in agricultural development, increasing the resilience and productivity of farming systems whilst ensuring the sustainable use of the environmental resource-based agriculture depends on. Results and conclusions: This tool was applied in a workshop setting to evaluate the relative strengths and weaknesses of two distinct projects; demonstrating the utility in visualizing the same performance in different ways. Of particular importance was ability to demonstrate how focusing on productivity and adaptation may trade-off mitigation activities. Significance: The results of the case study application demonstrated the challenge in meeting all the CSA requirements; particularly where the main objective of a project is to enhance and increase productivity. This reinforces how supporting all three pillars is challenging for a single project and therefore CSA is arguably more achievable when viewed in terms of a portfolio of activities which can collectively compensate for the limitations of a single project.
Food security score for Kenya
(Journal Article, 2015) Wakibi, Samwel; Gichuhi, Wanjiru; Kabira, Wanjiku Mukabi
Article 43, Section (1)(c) of the Bill of Rights of the Kenya Constitution (2010) states that: “Every person has the right to be free from hunger, and to have adequate food of acceptable quality. To monitor progress and targeting interventions towards realization of this goal, an easyto-use, but scientifically sound measure of food security is required.” The objective of this paper is to construct such measure that will subsequently constitute a Food Security Score (henceforth, FSS) for Kenya. This Food Security Score will enable the classification of the food security status of each county in the country. This FSS study was nested within a crosssectional baseline study conducted by the African Women’s Studies Centre (AWSC). The study had a representative sample of 4,129 households drawn from 20 randomly selected counties within six of Kenya’s Agro-ecological zones. The food security score study consulted one adult respondent in each household on the experiences, practices and behaviours of household members that have a bearing on food insecurity, including concerns such as: (a) not having enough food to feed the entire household; (b) cutting back on meal rations because of insufficient amounts of food stuffs; (c) lack of resources to buy food, and (d) going to bed hungry because of an absence of food to feed the household. Out of the 4129 households surveyed, 4060 responded to all four key questions selected to compute the FSS for Kenya. The results of the study revealed that whereas 67 percent of Kenyan households are food secure, 30 percent are food insecure, meaning that they lack access to enough food to sustain an active, healthy life for all members of their households. From the category of the food insecure group, a total of 9 percent are chronically food insecure. Based on this FSS, food security varied significantly amongst various counties and agro ecological zones. Agro-ecological zone (p-value<0.001) and county (p-value<0.001) are significantly associated with food security. Counties with higher rates of food insecurity than the nationally defined levels are mainly found in the coastal lowlands, inland lowlands and upper midlands agro-ecological zones. In line with the Constitution of Kenya (2010), efforts towards achieving food security need to focus on ensuring that all Kenyans are food secure. Although the two variables relating to the specific agro-ecological zones and counties significantly impact on food security in Kenya, these are not amenable to interventions. Hence, they can be used to target the most vulnerable regions and monitor improvements after implementing appropriate interventions to ameliorate food security. However, further research is recommended to validate the FSS regionally and internationally in order to improve its universality of interpretation.
Mapping and Profiling Legume Seed Value Chain Actors in Morocco: Chickpea and Lentil
(Internal Document, 2024-12-01) Bishaw, Zewdie; Imtiaz, Muhammad; Yigezu, Yigezu; Lammari, Abdelali; Rredani, Latifa; Boughlala, Mohamed
In Morocco, food legumes occupied as large areas as 600 thousand ha in the early 1970s. Thereafter, however, the area under food legumes fluctuated with a general downward trend. For the period 2001-2010, the annual average was 427 thousand ha per year which decreased to 404 thousand ha between 2011 and 2022. In 2024, the area allocated to food legumes is about 200 thousand ha. The decline in food legumes area is due not only to climate variability (periodic droughts) but mainly to other factors such as diseases (including Orobanche and Ascochyta Blight), increased mono-cropping of cereals and other crops, and lack of appropriate technologies (such as lack of high yielding, water efficient, and short duration varieties which are also amenable to mechanization). Moreover, the market for food legumes still suffers from poor organization because it remains controlled by several intermediaries that are exploiting their power to extract more than their fair share of the price without making comparable value addition thereby reducing the price received by food legume producers. In these conditions, more efforts are needed to improve food legume production and rehabilitation. As part of the solution to revitalize food legumes, this study aims to investigate the systemic challenges of the seed system and identify the constraints and opportunities of the main stakeholders. Due to time and resource constraints, only lentils and chickpeas were targeted. According to the results of interviews and surveys, legumes-certified seed production is far from being a priority for the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Rural Development, Water and Forests (MARDWF). However, it is important to note that many actors are involved in the seed sector and the most important ones are AMMS, INRA, FNIS, ONSSA, ONCA, and COMADER. The private sector is involved in the seed sector but not in food legumes. According to the Moroccan Seed Growers Association (AMMS), the Department of Agriculture will launch a new initiative in the 2024-2025 cropping season by targeting seed multipliers operating within the aggregation system and including them under contracts for certified seed multiplication. The constraints of the legume sector do not pertain to only the production of certified seed, but also to the lack of appropriate varieties, limited number of herbicides, lack of sufficient incentives, high demand for labor, and mechanization.
A probit analysis of determinants of adoption of improved sorghum technologies among farmers in Tanzania
(Journal Article, 2021) Kimbi, Thedy Gerald; Akpo, Essegbemon; Kongola, Eliud; Ojiewo, Chris O.; Vernooy, Ronnie; Muricho, Geoffrey; Ringo, Justin; Lukurugu, Gerald Alex; Varshney, Rajeev; Tabo, Ramadjita
The adoption of improved sorghum technologies by smallholder farmers is still low in Tanzania. Many farmers fail to acquire quality inputs due to different underlying reasons. This article analyzes factors underlining the adoption of improved technologies among sorghum farmers in Tanzania and evaluates profitability of grain production. A total of 212 individual farmers were interviewed through structured questionnaires from nine districts. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, probit regression model and gross margin analysis. Results show that 39.2%, 26.5%, 16.9%, 8.4% and 7.2% of sorghum farmers adopted seeds of improved varieties, insecticides, inorganic fertilizers, threshing machine and optimum seed rate, respectively. Probit estimates indicated that age, sex, number of years in school, group membership, farm size, availability of free seeds, seed accessibility, grain market accessibility and grain market price were the significant factors influencing adoption of these technologies. Adopters obtained higher profitability (822,288 Tshs/ha) than non-adopters (374,363 Tshs/ha) of improved varieties. Further policy actions are needed to improve determinants of adoption, breeding technologies and accessibility of agricultural inputs to ensure benefits to farmers and the sorghum sub-sector.
Analysis of farmers’ behaviour towards purchase of improved sweetpotato vines in Uganda: An application of the AIDA model
(Working Paper, 2024-12-17) Otieno, D.; Rajendran, S.; Okello, J.J.; Ogero, K.; Feukeng, F.
Many studies on adoption of new technologies assume a linear movement from introduction of the technologies to their eventual uptake by targeted stakeholders. However, human behavior follows a gradual and cumulative path from information acquisition, developing an interest, forming a desire and eventually taking action to use new technologies. This study provides analytical results on how a farmer moves from being aware, getting interested, forming a purchase desire and actually purchasing improved sweetpotato seed in Uganda. The study uses primary data from both a baseline and follow up survey of 1192 sweetpotato farmers in Amuria district of Uganda. Principal component analysis and partial least square structural equation model were applied to analyze the empirical linkages between four key constructs; awareness, interest, desire and action (commonly referred to as AIDA model) in tracing the farmer’s journey towards eventual purchase and use/planting of the improved sweetpotato vines. Results show that contrary to theoretical expectation of a linear relationship and exact prediction of action from awareness, interest and desire, the baseline data only linked 47.6% of farmer behavior towards purchase of the improved sweetpotato vines to the sequential movement from awareness, interest and desire. Two distinct categories of farmers were also established; keen customers who pay attention to product details and environmentally-conscious customers who care more about product costs and adaptability to drought and low water stress. The follow up survey plus inclusion of contextual factors improved the explained variance from 48% in the baseline data to 60%. This implies that farmers’ behavior towards adoption of improved sweetpotato requires multiple rounds of data spread over a longer time period to correctly predict. Moreover, contextual factors such as farmers’ resource endowment situation, gender roles and culture add value to the standard AIDA model constructs and should be incorporated in such models to improve the precision of analysis and make the findings more relevant to farmers’ environment, thus resulting to realistic interventions.

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