CGIAR Climate Change Platform Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/139585

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Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2024
(Report, 2024-06-01) Schaeffer, Roberto; Schipper, Lisa; Ospina, Daniel; Mirazo, Paula; Alencar, Ane; Anvari, Mehrnaz; Artaxo, Paulo; Biresselioglu, Mehmet Efe; Biome, Tanja; Boeckmann, Melanie; Brink, Ebba; Broadgate, Wendy; Bustamante, Mercedes; Cai, Wenju; Canadell, Josep G.; Chidichimo, Maria Paz; Ditlevsen, Peter; Eicker, Ursula; Feron, Sarah; Fikru, Mahelet G.; Fuss, Sabine; Gaye, Amadou T.; Gustafsson, Orjan; Harring, Niklas; He, Cheng; Hebden, Sophie; Heilemann, Adrian; Hirota, Marina; Janardhanan, Nandakumar; Juhola, Sirkku; Jung, Tae Yong; Kejun, Jiang; Kilkis, Siir; Kumarasinghe, Nilushi; Lapola, David; Lee, June-Yi; Levis, Carolina; Lusambili, Adelaide; Maasakkers, Bram; MacIntosh, Claire; Mahmood, Jemilah; Mankin, Justin S.; Marchegiani, Pia; Martin, Maria; Mukherji, Aditi; Munoz-Erickson, Tischa A.; Niazi, Zeenat; Nyangon, Joseph; Pandipati, Santosh; Perera, Amarasinghage T.D.; Persad, Greeta; Persson, Asa; Redman, Aaron; Riipinen, Ilona; Rockstrom, Johan; Roffe, Sarah; Roy, Joyashree; Sakschewski, Boris; Samset, Bjorn H.; Schlosser, Peter; Sharifi, Ayyoob; Shih, Wan-Yu; Sioen, Giles B.; Sokona, Youba; Stammer, Detlef; Suk, Sunhee; Thiam, Djiby; Thompson, Vikki; Tullos, Erin; van Western, Rene M.; Vargas Falla, Ana Maria; Vecellio, Daniel; Worden, John; Wu, Henry C.; Xu, Chi; Yang, Yang; Zachariah, Mariam; Zhang, Zhen; Ziervogel, Gina
Climate change research is broad, diverse and constantly growing. Cross- and interdisciplinary understanding is essential for generating robust science advice for policy. However, it is challenging to prioritise and navigate the ever-expanding peer-reviewed literature. To address this, we gathered input from experts across various research fields through an online questionnaire and prioritised a set of 10 key research advances with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) Declining aerosol emissions, (2) soaring methane emissions, (3) concerning ocean dynamics, (4) diversity and resilience of Amazon forests, (5) expanding risk of “uninhabitability”, (6) climate impacts to maternal and reproductive health, (7) climate-resilient development for cities, (8) vulnerability of critical infrastructure, (9) governance of the energy transition minerals value chain, and (10) public acceptance of climate policies. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report which aims to elevate climate science every year ahead of the UN Climate Summit.
Governing Groundwater Irrigation in Bangladesh: Reviewing the Past and Looking Ahead for the Future
(Preprint, 2024) Sarkar, Anindita; Mukherji, Aditi; Mainuddin, M.
Groundwater governance in intensively irrigated agricultural regions of global south is receiving increased attention due to its growing complexities in responding to multifaceted challenges, of rapidly growing populations, demand for food production, increasing pressure on land and water resources, escalating energy use and cost of irrigation and uncertain climate futures. This paper therefore aims to enrich current understanding of irrigation policies by drawing insights from Bangladesh. It traces the historical evolution of groundwater irrigation development in Bangladesh’s agriculture in five phases since 1960’s. Each of these phases are analysed to show how policies impact groundwater irrigation systems and what can we learn from these experiences. Extension of groundwater irrigation is determined by government’s decisions to influence both public and private investments on groundwater technologies and new innovative cost-effective technologies in groundwater irrigation systems. The paper argues that shifts in governance decisions on irrigation polices can impact agrarian change. The study finds that although the shifts in governance approaches have cumulatively improved the food security of Bangladesh, they have not been framed to provide direction for its sustainable use in the long run. At present the country is trying to find solutions to balance optimum utilization of groundwater amidst challenges of adopting to new pumping technologies and renewable energy sources to reduce irrigation cost in one hand and addressing the escalating apprehension of groundwater depletion and decline in food production on the other.
Identifying Good Practice in National Adaptation Plans: A Global Review
(Report, 2024-09-01) Shammugam, Shivenes; Reckien, Diana; Grafakos, Stelios; Bockarjova, Marija; Choi, Hyeryung; Salvia, Monica; Viero, Giulia; Pietrapertosa, Filomena; Lionggo, Indriany
This report presents a global analysis of the contents of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) documents submitted to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) before the 1st of January 2024. The present report has two main objectives: to present the results of the global review of NAPs derived from a review framework that was developed as part of this works and to highlight and share good practices on NAP thematic areas from countries, for other countries to learn from to either creating a NAP or to refine their existing NAP. Director of the CGIAR Climate Impact Platform, Aditi Mukherji, was a developer of the NAP-GP Framework.
Adaptation to water-induced disaster: exploring local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge-led strategies
(Journal Article, 2024-03-06) Rittelmeyer, Pamela; Caretta, Martina Angela; Dowler, Calynn; Vora, Shuchi; Seigerman, Cydney K.; Reddy, EB Uday Bhaskar; BR, Lakshmikantha; Parajuli, Jagadish; Srinivasan, Jaishri; Priya, Ritu; Mukherji, Aditi
The magnitude of water-induced disasters is projected to increase in the coming decades. Yet, there is a substantial gap in the understanding of how local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge are employed to respond to climate change water-induced disasters. We examine this gap through a meta-review of literature published between 2014 and 2019 yielding 39 scholarly papers. The meta-review indicates that the literature highlights that marginalized people are facing multiple risks that threaten their ability to produce enough food for consumption, secure water for irrigation, live in sustainable communities, and maintain their health and well-being. Responses are largely incremental, autonomous adjustments, such as livelihood diversification, flood-proofing homes, and soil moisture conservation. Our findings show that there is a clear need to more closely attend to the processes by which local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge can be meaningfully integrated into adaptation to move toward transformative change for long-term climate resilience.
Misguided negative adaptation narratives are hurting the poor: Measurement and maladaptation are being weaponized
(Journal Article, 2024-11-08) Schipper, Lisa; Mukherji, Aditi
Since publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II report in 2022, adaptation has been gaining attention among decision-makers and practitioners, including on the international policy level through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Two dimensions of adaptation in particular have received considerable focus: the risk of maladaptation, and the contention that any metrics to assess success are likely to fall short of capturing all dimensions of adaptation. Although these conclusions are grounded in academic evidence, problems arise when policy-makers interpret such findings in overly simplistic ways with possible negative implications on adaptation finance and implementation. As two IPCC authors who contributed to scientific narratives of the risks of adaptation, we argue that weaponizing maladaptation and claiming that adaptation success is impossible or unmeasurable as excuses to reduce or halt funding is not grounded in the latest science and ends up hurting vulnerable communities.
Puzzlingly low utilization of solar irrigation pumps by smallholders in Nepal undermines cost-effectiveness
(Journal Article, 2024-11-22) Oziel, Dan; Mukherji, Aditi; Lamichhane, Nabina; Fishman, Ram
Solar powered irrigation pumps (SIP) hold substantial potential for low carbon irrigation expansion, particularly where affordable electricity is limited. In contrast to diesel-based irrigation, which carries steep fuel costs, irrigation by SIP requires zero marginal costs, but high initial investments. This makes their competitiveness with diesel pumps highly dependent on the temporal frequency of their usage. Using unique and detailed data on SIP usage by smallholders in Nepal, we show SIP usage frequency is low, making it financially competitive with diesel for only a small fraction of farmers. We analyze characteristics of farmers who make low/high usage of the SIP, and explore potential explanations for the puzzling low level of SIP use.
A place in the sun: farmers’ co-benefits from solar irrigation in Bangladesh
(Journal Article, 2024-12) Buisson, Marie-Charlotte; Mitra, Archisman; Hounsa, T.; Habib, Md. A.; Mukherji, Aditi
Solar irrigation pumps (SIPs) are gradually replacing diesel pumps in relatively water-intensive agricultural production systems and geographies to reduce carbon emissions from food systems. However, beyond its climate change mitigation potential and fulfillment of Nationally Determined Contributions commitments, the adoption of solar irrigation also has direct co-benefits for farmers. Taking the case of Bangladesh and anchored on primary data collected among solar and diesel pump users, this article analyses the role access to solar irrigation has on household and farm-level outcomes. The propensity score matching and inverse probability matching approaches identify a positive effect of SIP access on food security and profitability from dry-season paddy for adopters. Different transmission channels are explored to explain these co-benefits. Lower costs of irrigation and labor are identified as the strongest pathways. This analysis strengthens the case for investments toward the solarization of agriculture in developing countries where it delivers significant development co-benefits in addition to climate change mitigation benefits. The valuation of the farmers’ co-benefits, along with global climate mitigation impacts, also highlights the potential role of such programs toward climate justice.
Effectiveness of water-related adaptation decreases with increasing warming
(Journal Article, 2024-03-15) Lissner, Tabea K.; Caretta, Martina Angela; Möller, Tessa; Mukherji, Aditi
Adaptation is central to address climate impacts. At present, we have a limited understanding of the effectiveness of adaptation to reduce risks in a warming world, because adaptation remains insufficiently addressed in climate impact projections. Where projections exist, these are assessed mostly in case study settings. The importance of water is apparent within the field of climate adaptation, with the majority of documented and projected adaptation related to water. Based on a meta-review of projections of adaptation, we assess the ability of different modeled water-related adaptation options to reduce climate risk at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of warming and show that the effectiveness of the assessed options decreases with increasing warming across all world regions and options. Although adaptation benefits can be achieved for many regions, increasing maladaptive outcomes are projected at higher levels of warming. Our analysis highlights the urgent need to limit global warming by drastically reducing emissions to avoid catastrophic impacts.
A system-transitions report for the next IPCC assessment
(Journal Article, 2023-12-05) Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Trisos, Christopher; Mukherji, Aditi
Ratcheting up effectiveness to improve the Global Stocktake process
(Journal Article, 2023-12-15) Stringer, L.C. ; Dhakal, S.; Milkoreit, M. ; Mendoza, C. ; Mukherji, Aditi; Shishlov, I.; Fisher, S.; Simpson, N.P. ; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
The Paris Agreement rests on voluntary emissions reduction pledges but does not mandate that pledges are sufficiently ambitious to collectively limit warming to acceptable levels. Instead, it relies on the “ratcheting mechanism” of the Global Stocktake. As the world falls further from emissions trajectories compatible with the Paris Agreement, a safe and just future relies on increased global effort. This Voices asks: what is needed for the Global Stocktake to be a pivotal mechanism for raising climate ambitions and action?
As the UN meets, make water central to climate action
(Journal Article, 2023-03-23) Rahman, M.F.; Mukherji, Aditi; Johannessen, A.; Srivastava, S.; Verhagen, J.; Ovink, H.; Ligtvoet, W. ; Olet, E.
Can water, energy, and food policies in support of solar irrigation enable gender transformative changes? Evidence from policy analysis in Bangladesh and Nepal
(Journal Article, 2024-01-25) Khadka, Manohara; Uprety, Labisha; Shrestha, Gitta; Shakya, Shristi; Mitra, Archisman; Mukherji, Aditi
Solar irrigation pumps (SIPs) are emerging as a popular technology to address water, energy, and climate change challenges in South Asia while enhancing livelihoods and food security. SIPs are deemed to be a women-friendly renewable energy technology (RET) due to their design, operating system, and safety. While the gender dimensions of natural resources are well documented, the extent to which the water, energy, and food (WEF) policies—including policies to promote SIP technologies in the countries of South Asia—conceptualize and operationalize gender equality and social inclusion (GESI) is not well understood. Therefore, in this study, we reviewed 39 WEF sectoral policies of Bangladesh and Nepal by adopting a gender-transformative analysis approach to rank the policies on a continuum ranging from a scale of 0–3 (denoting gender-unaware, gender-aware, gender-responsive, and gendertransformative). We found that the governments in both countries commit to gender equality and women’s advancement in their WEF sector policies, institutions, and decision-making by ensuring gender and justice principles in their constitutions and national development frameworks. However, these higher-level aspirational principles are not always operationalized in the WEF sector policies. We found that the WEF policies are aware of the need to include GESI and social equity in sectoral programming, yet operational rules for their implementation often fail to challenge structural barriers. Such barriers hinder women and marginalized groups from participating in and benefiting from WEF policies, including the deployment of SIP technologies. This calls for a transformation not only in project implementation but also in the policymaking processes of WEF sectors in the South Asian region.
Unleashing the potential of solar irrigation in Bangladesh: key lessons from different implementation models
(Journal Article, 2024-01-01) Mitra, Archisman; Buisson, Marie-Charlotte; Osmani, A. Z.; Mukherji, Aditi
The transition to solar-powered irrigation in South Asia offers an opportunity to cut greenhouse gas emissions and reduce dependency on expensive diesel. However, appropriate institutional and financial models are required to scale up this technology. Three different solar irrigation pump (SIP) implementation modalities coexist in Bangladesh, providing a good opportunity to evaluate and gain insightful knowledge on the solarization process. These conclusions are also applicable to neighboring countries dealing with comparable problems. The three models are (i) community-managed SIP model, (ii) individual ownership model, and (iii) fee-for-service model. In this article, we argue that the fee-for-service model involving a market-based approach and public-private partnership is the most promising in terms of addressing two main challenges in solarization, i.e. high capex financing requirement and generation of sufficient demand. In terms of achieving equity in SIP access and groundwater sustainability, all three models have their respective pros and cons. However, the financial sustainability of SIPs is under threat due to the significant project costs. It is imperative to expedite the integration of SIPs with the national power grid while implementing supportive government policies. This includes enhancing buy-back tariffs and introducing net-metering options to ensure long-term sustainability.
Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023
(Journal Article, 2024-01) Bustamante, Mercedes; Roy, Joyashree; Ospina, Daniel; Achakulwisut, Ploy; Aggarwal, Anubha; Singh, Vartika; Mukherji, Aditi
We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems.
Technology for whom? Solar irrigation pumps, women, and smallholders in Nepal
(Journal Article, 2023-10-03) Shrestha, Gitta; Uprety, Labisha; Khadka, Manohara; Mukherji, Aditi
Agricultural technologies are often promoted as a medium for women’s economic empowerment, which can transform unequal gender relations in rural agrarian societies. This paper investigates three solar irrigation pump (SIP) schemes implemented by state and non-state actors and examines their impacts on women and marginal farmers. We utilize a theory of change framework intended to evaluate the effectiveness of livelihood interventions and guide the design of gender transformative interventions. Our analysis relies on 63 qualitative interviews, 9 key informant interviews and 4 telephonic interviews with social mobilisers from the Saptari District in Nepal. The findings shed light on the unequal social and gender relations that have skewed the adoption and benefits of SIP technology. Gender and social inequalities persist, with limited adoption and benefit of SIP among women and smallholders. Women’s involvement in strategic decisions related to SIP adoptions, installations and usages is limited. This study underscores the importance of strategic interventions that foster meaningful women’s empowerment and ensure equitable distribution and benefits from SIP technology. Assessing the effectiveness of SIPs in empowering women, it is crucial to consider whether the resulting access, ownership, or decision-making opportunities challenge, reinforce, or reproduce unequal gender and social relations.
Migration as adaptation to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes? A meta-review of existing evidence
(Journal Article, 2023-08) Caretta, Martina Angela; Fanghella, V.; Rittelmeyer, P.; Srinivasan, J.; Panday, P. K.; Parajuli, J.; Priya, R.; Reddy, E. B. U. B.; Seigerman, C. K.; Mukherji, Aditi
Due to its potential geo-political and environmental implications, climate migration is an increasing concern to the international community. However, while there is considerable attention devoted to migration in response to sea-level rise, there is a limited understanding of human mobility due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes. Hence, the aim of this paper is to examine the existing evidence on migration as an adaptation strategy due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes. A meta-review of papers published between 2014 and 2019 yielded 67 publications, the majority of which focus on a handful of countries in the Global South. Droughts, floods, extreme heat, and changes in seasonal precipitation patterns were singled out as the most common hazards triggering migration. Importantly, most of the papers discuss mobility as part of a portfolio of responses. Motivations to migrate at the household level range from survival to searching for better economic opportunities. The outcomes of migration are mixed — spanning from higher incomes to difficulties in finding employment after moving and struggles with a higher cost of living. While remittances can be beneficial, migration does not always have a positive outcome for those who are left behind. Furthermore, this meta-review shows that migration, even when desired, is not an option for some of the most vulnerable households. These multifaceted results suggest that, while climate mobility is certainly happening due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes, studies reviewing it are limited and substantial gaps remain in terms of geographical coverage, implementation assessments, and outcomes evaluation. We argue that these gaps need to be filled to inform climate and migration policies that increasingly need to be intertwined rather than shaped in isolation from each other.

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