IFPRI Co-Publishing

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/137916

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 945

The case for post Malabo Agenda implementation guidelines
(Brief, 2025-01-17) Ulimwengu, John M.; Mutyasira, Vine; Keizire, Boaz
The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), developed by the African Union (AU) in 2003, marked a significant turning point for Africa’s agricultural development. CAADP’s objective was to transform agriculture into a key driver of economic growth, poverty reduction, and food security across the continent. Through a focus on increasing agricultural productivity and ensuring that agricultural development was aligned with national and regional priorities, CAADP sought to tackle Africa’s persistent challenges of hunger, malnutrition, and economic stagnation. In 2014, the Malabo Declaration was introduced as the second phase of CAADP implementation, with a new set of ambitious targets aimed at ending hunger and halving poverty by 2025. The declaration reinforced the importance of agricultural-led growth and committed African governments to specific goals, including increasing agricultural productivity by at least 6% annually and allocating at least 10% of national budgets to agriculture. It also emphasized sustainable agriculture, resilience to climate change, and equitable access to resources, particularly for women and smallholder farmers.
Comprehensive mapping of food systems is necessary to guide transformation efforts: The case of Rwanda
(Brief, 2025-01-17) Ulimwengu, John M.; Warner, James; Mutyasira, Vine; Keizire, Boaz
Rwanda has made significant strides in improving its food systems, with notable progress in reducing malnutrition and stunting, especially among children. Stunting rates declined from over 50% in the early 2000s to 33% by 2020, reflecting the government’s commitment to addressing food insecurity and enhancing nutrition through a range of agricultural and public health initiatives. The country’s Crop Intensification Program (CIP) has played a pivotal role in increasing agricultural productivity, especially for staple crops like maize, beans, and Irish potatoes, which has contributed to better food availability across the country. Despite these achievements, substantial challenges persist. Almost 19% of households still face food insecurity, with the highest prevalence in rural areas. Additionally, malnutrition continues to affect vulnerable populations, with anemia rates among women of reproductive age at 37%, signaling gaps in nutrition security. Environmental concerns, including soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change, further complicate efforts to sustain agricultural productivity. Approximately 40% of Rwanda’s land is affected by soil erosion, and shifting climate patterns pose increasing risks to agricultural yields. These challenges indicate the need for a more strategic, research-based approach to understanding and transforming Rwanda’s food system.
Key principles for country theory of change for food systems transformation anchored in CAADP strategic and action plan (2026-2035)
(Brief, 2024) Ulimwengu, John M.; Mutyasira, Vine; Keizire, Boaz
Africa is at a pivotal moment in its journey toward achieving sustainable agricultural development, food security, and climate resilience. Agriculture, which employs over 60% of the continent’s population, plays a critical role in economic growth and poverty reduction. Yet, Africa’s food systems are under pressure from multiple challenges, including widespread food insecurity, malnutrition, environmental degradation, and vulnerability to climate change. Despite two decades of significant advancements through the implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), the continent faces complex issues that demand a more transformative and systemic approach to agricultural development. The latest Africa Union 4th CAADP Biennial Review Report shows that none of the Member States are on-track towards achieving the CAADP Malabo commitments by 2025. The continent is doing particularly poorly on the ending hunger commitment, with none of the countries on-track towards achieving access to agriculture inputs and technologies, agricultural productivity, and food security and nutrition. The 2024 Africa Food Systems Forum (AFSF) saw a greater commitment from global leaders, Africa Heads of States, private sector, civil society, and international organizations to scale up investment in the transformation of Africa’s food systems to ensure food and nutrition security in Africa while creating jobs and opportunities youth and women. The year also saw intensification of engagements around the Post-Malabo discussion which have seen a strategic shift towards as a broader agri-food systems approach.
Implications of accelerated agricultural growth on household incomes and poverty in Ethiopia
(Working Paper, 2009) Dorosh, Paul A.; Thurlow, James
This paper provides details of the analysis done for Ethiopia’s background study for its implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). The analysis provides an assessment of agricultural growth options utilizing a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Ethiopia based on data from the EDRI 2004/05 Ethiopia Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The CGE model results indicate that if Ethiopia can meet its targets for crop yields and livestock productivity, then it should be possible to reach and sustain the six percent agricultural growth target during 2006-2015.
Access to and governance of rural services: Agricultural extension and drinking water supply in Ethiopia
(Working Paper, 2009) Mogues, Tewodaj; Cohen, Marc J.; Birner, Regina; Lemma, Mamusha; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Tadesse, Fanaye; Paulos, Zelekawork
This study investigated access to agricultural extension and rural water supply and assessed strategies to improve the provision of these services by strengthening accountability. The study paid special attention to the gender dimension of service delivery. The research was conducted in eight districts located in seven administrative regions of Ethiopia, combining quantitative surveys with a qualitative case study approach. Empirical findings show that access to safe drinking water is rather low: 32% of the surveyed households use safe drinking water sources, and the average time to fetch water from safe sources during the dry season ranged from 29 minutes to 82 minutes. Agricultural extension services were relatively accessible, but there were differences in access between men and women, and particularly stark differences across the survey sites in different regions. Farmers' satisfaction with extension services was very high, but only 8 percent of the sampled farmers had adopted any new practices in the past two years.
Foreign exchange rationing, wheat markets and food security in Ethiopia
(Brief, 2009-12) Dorosh, Paul A.; Ahmed, Hashim A.
Beginning in April 2008, lack of access to foreign exchange effectively stopped private sector wheat imports. Government imports and subsidized sales to millers and households in late 2008, subsequently increased domestic supply and lowered market wheat prices, though market prices remained above import parity levels. Allowing the private sector access to foreign exchange for wheat imports (or auctioning government wheat imports of the same volume) would have eliminated the wheat import subsidy, estimated at about $US 90 million in 2008, while reducing market prices to import parity levels.
Economic implications of foreign exchange rationing in Ethiopia
(Working Paper, 2009) Dorosh, Paul A.; Robinson, Sherman; Ahmed, Hashim A.
This paper examines macro-economic developments in Ethiopia between 2004/05 and 2008/09, focusing on the external accounts and the real exchange rate. Simulations using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of Ethiopia's economy show that, compared to a policy of foreign exchange rationing, a policy of real exchange rate depreciation and no rationing improves economic efficiency and welfare of all households except those who receive the rents (excess profits) arising from rationing.
Urbanization and spatial connectivity in Ethiopia
(Working Paper, 2009) Schmidt, Emily; Kedir, Mekamu
This study uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques to estimate urbanization rates in Ethiopia, using a definition of urban extents that combines city population size, along with population density and travel times in surrounding areas. Defining the minimum population of an urban area as 50,000, the urbanization rate has risen from only 3.7 percent in 1984 to 14.2 percent in 2007. Over this same period, the percentage of the population more than 10 hours travel time from an urban center has fallen from 40.3 percent in 1984 to only 12.2 percent in 2007.
Implications of accelerated agricultural growth on household incomes and poverty in Ethiopia: A general equilibrium analysis
(Working Paper, 2009) Dorosh, Paul A.; Thurlow, James
Ethiopia’s national development strategy, A Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty for 2005/06 to 2009/10 (PASDEP) places a major emphasis on achieving high rates of agricultural and overall economic growth. Consistent with the PASDEP, Ethiopia is also in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) together with other African governments. As part of CAADP, the country has committed itself to meeting targets of devoting at least 10 percent of public expenditures to agriculture and to achieving a 6 percent growth rate in agricultural GDP. Ethiopia has already met these targets in recent years. The challenge remains, however, to continue to devote these public resources and to achieve high growth rates through 2015. This paper analyzes agricultural growth options that can support high levels of agricultural development using a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Ethiopia based on data from the EDRI 2005/06 Ethiopia SAM (Ahmed et al. 2009). The CGE model results indicated that if Ethiopia can meet its targets for crop yields and livestock productivity, then it should be possible to reach and sustain the six percent agricultural growth target during 2006-2015. Even though these yield targets are below the maximum potential yields identified by agricultural field trials, they are still ambitious given the short timeframe of the CAADP initiative (i.e., seven years). Achieving agricultural growth of six percent per year would reduce national poverty to 18.4 percent by 2015, lifting an additional 3.7 million people out of poverty compared to a base simulation using medium term growth rates. Most households are expected to benefit from faster agricultural growth. However, some agro-ecological zones that grow higher value cereals and export-oriented crops and which are better situated to larger urban markets (e.g., the rainfall sufficient highlands) stand to gain more than other parts of the country. Both rural and urban households benefit from faster agricultural growth (and thereby overall economic growth), as rural producers benefit from increased agricultural productivity and incomes, while net purchasers of food in both rural and urban areas benefit from moderate declines in real food prices. Composition of agricultural growth matters, though. Additional growth driven by cereals has larger impacts on poverty reduction, because these crops already constitute a large share of rural incomes and so can contribute substantially to achieving broad-based agricultural growth. Yield improvements in these crops not only benefit farm households directly, by increasing incomes from agricultural production, but also by allowing farmers to diversify their land allocation towards other higher-value crops. Increased productivity of cereals that reduces real cereal prices is also effective at raising rural real incomes and reducing poverty, especially amongst the poorest households. Thus, high priority should be afforded to improving cereals yields and opening market opportunities for upstream processing to reduce demand constraints.
Infrastructure and cluster development: A case study of handloom weavers in Ethiopia
(Working Paper, 2009) Ayele, Gezahegn; Chamberlin, Jordan; Moorman, Lisa; Wamisho, Kassu; Zhang, Xiaobo
Rural non-farm development plays a key role in generating employment in many developing countries. Clustering is an important industrial organization in the rural non-farm sector. Based on primary surveys of both urban and rural handloom weaver clusters in Ethiopia which took place in May/June 2008, one of the most important rural nonfarm sectors, this paper examines the mechanism and performance of clustering. The clustering way of handloom production is observed even in remote rural areas, illustrating its vitality and flexibility in adapting to restricted environments. Despite its resilience in surviving in harsh environments, improvements in infrastructure can significantly increase labor productivity in a cluster. In towns with electricity access, producers work longer hours than those in towns without electricity and more entrepreneurs with limited access to capital are able to participate in handloom production because of finer division of labor.
Urbanization and spatial connectivity in Ethiopia: Urban growth analysis using GIS
(Working Paper, 2009) Schmidt, Emily; Kedir, Mekamu
In comparison to other African countries, Ethiopia has a low urbanization rate. According to the World Bank World Development Report (WDR) 2009, Sub-Sahara Africa is 30% urbanized, whereas Ethiopia is only 10.9% urbanized. Urbanization rates differ according to methodologies and data base utilized: the United Nations classifies Ethiopia as 14.9% urban, while the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia reports a 16% urbanization rate. In an effort to standardize and measure Ethiopian urbanization over time, we use the WDR agglomeration index methodology which incorporates a series of GIS data and analyses including: travel time rasters, population density (namely GRUMP and LandScan gridded population), and other nationally collected biophysical and infrastructure variables. We spatially allocate urban versus non-urban areas by creating specific thresholds following two criteria whereby locations are categorized as urban if populations have: a population density greater than 150 people per km2; and are located within 1 hour travel time from a city of at least 50,000 people. Utilizing road and population data from different years between 1984 and 2006, we are able to model growth in urbanization and reductions in remoteness over time. Using the agglomeration index methodology, we find that the overall share of urban population increased from 3.7 percent in 1984 to 14.2 percent in 2007. The results indicate substantial improvements in travel time between urban centers over the past two decades, though a large share of the population still resides more than 10 hours travel time from an urban center.
A sub-national hunger index for Ethiopia: Assessing progress in region-level outcomes
(Working Paper, 2009) Schmidt, Emily; Dorosh, Paul A.
Access to sufficient food and nutrients is essential for household welfare, as well as for accomplishing other development objectives. Households with insufficient access to food often face other challenges related to food insecurity including poor health and declines in productivity. In order to better target food aid assistance, evaluate progress, and design efficient intervention strategies, a transparent and reliable database on food insecurity is necessary. With the goal of providing a more straight-forward and standardized approach for calculating food insecurity, IFPRI developed a Global Hunger Index (GHI) in 2006 that allowed for easy comparison across countries. Recognizing the various dimensions of food insecurity, the GHI equally weights the proportion of people who are food energy deficient, the prevalence of underweight children under the age of five, and the mortality rate among children less than five years of age. Because national averages can mask important regional differences, we calculate a Sub-National Hunger Index for Ethiopia using data from 1999-2000 and 2004-05 (the latter year being the latest for which nationally representative household surveys are available). Our findings indicate that between 1999-2000 and 2004-05, there were substantial improvements in all components of the Hunger Index in all analyzed administrative regions of Ethiopia. There were also major improvements in both urban and rural areas, with a decline in the index from 47.6 to 29.9 in small urban areas (areas defined urban in the household survey with exception to Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, and Harari) and from 43.6 to 32.6 in rural areas. Given rapid agriculture-led economic growth between 2004-05 and 2008-09, it is expected that when new household survey data is available, these indices will show continued improvement.
Foreign exchange rationing, wheat markets and food security in Ethiopia
(Working Paper, 2009-10) Dorosh, Paul A.; Ahmed, Hashim A.
In spite of remarkable growth in Ethiopia’s agricultural production and overall real incomes (GDP/capita) from 2004/05 to 2008/09, prices of major cereals (teff, maize, wheat and sorghum) have fluctuated sharply in both nominal and real terms. International prices of cereals also fluctuated widely, particularly between 2006 and 2008. However, the links between Ethiopia’s domestic cereal markets and the international market are by no means straightforward. Among the major staples, only wheat is imported or exported on a significant scale. And frequent changes in trade and macro-economic policies, movements in international prices and fluctuations in domestic production have at times eliminated incentives for private sector imports of wheat. From July 2005 to March 2007, private sector wheat imports were profitable and domestic wheat prices closely tracked import parity prices. Then, from April 2007 to May 2008, good domestic harvests coincided with increase international wheat prices, so private sector wheat imports were no longer profitable. Most recently, rationing of foreign exchange for imports effectively stopped private sector wheat imports beginning in about April 2008. Partial equilibrium analysis shows, however, that government imports and sales in 2008-09 effectively increased domestic supply and lowered market wheat prices. These sales at the low official price also implied that recipient households, traders and flour mills enjoyed a significant subsidy. Allowing the private sector access to foreign exchange for wheat imports or auctioning government wheat imports in domestic markets would eliminate these rents and generate additional government revenue, while having the same effect on market prices as government subsidized sales.
Agricultural extension in Ethiopia through a gender and governance lens
(Working Paper, 2009) Mogues, Tewodaj; Cohen, Marc J.; Birner, Regina; Lemma, Mamusha; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Tadesse, Fanaye; Paulos, Zelekawork
Drawing on a household survey collected in eight woredas in seven Ethiopian regions in 2009, as well as on qualitative fieldwork in four of the eight woredas, this paper provides analysis of agricultural extension delivery in Ethiopia. While overall extension services are relatively accessible in Ethiopia, there are differences in access between men and women, and particularly stark differences by region. Individual visits by public sector extension agents to household farms are by far the most common mode of extension delivery; alternative modes of extension (either in delivery method or type of service provider) play a rather limited role. Using the method widely applied in the "Citizen Report Card" approach, questions to farmers regarding satisfaction with services yielded near 100 percent reporting of satisfaction; however, the study also showed relatively low uptake of extension advice. This suggests the need to revisit or refine the Citizen Report Card method of eliciting satisfaction with services in this type of empirical context. Women's groups (e.g. the women's associations at the kebele level in rural areas) may be a promising approach to reach women with extension services; in some of the study sites, they were able to successfully link extension agents with women farmers and circumvent the socially sensitive issue of (male) extension agents providing advice to women one-on-one. However, the use of women's associations also for other matters, e.g. political mobilization of women, may weaken their promise in expanding access to extension services for women farmers. Finally, making agricultural extension demand driven remains a challenge in Ethiopia. While there is strong political will to expand agricultural extension in Ethiopia, the strong standardisation of extension packages arising from a pronounced top-down nature of public service delivery makes it difficult to tailor agricultural extension to farmers' needs. The incentives of extension agents are set in a way that they try to maximize farmers' adoption of standardized packages. The packages have become less rigid in recent years, with a menu of options now available to farmers. However, even the more diversified menu cannot substitute for the microlevel adaptation, the process that would make new inputs and practices more credible to farmers, and which only extension workers and their farmers can feasibly manage.
The governance of service delivery for the poor and women: A study of rural water supply in Ethiopia
(Working Paper, 2009) Mogues, Tewodaj; Cohen, Marc J.; Birner, Regina; Lemma, Mamusha; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Tadesse, Fanaye; Paulos, Zelekawork
This study presents empirical findings on drinking water supply in Ethiopia from a set of qualitative and quantitive surveys on rural public services. Access to safe drinking water is very low: 32% of the surveyed households use safe drinking water sources, and the average time to get to safe water sources during dry season ranged from 29 minutes to 82 minutes. The households covered in the Ethiopia survey may still have better access than the national average. Households identify drinking water as their main priority concern, yet they report high satisfaction rates and hardly take any action to complain. 71% of the households were very or somewhat satisfied with the quantity and 52% with the quality of drinking water, even though access was very low. What is surprising with these findings is the fact that a considerable share of the households identified water as their number one concern among a series of services in their area. This raises questions about how best to elicit information about satisfaction with rural services. Drinking water has undergone far-reaching decentralisation. The construction and major rehabilitation of drinking water facilities is managed by district water desks, which are backstopped by the Regional Water Bureaus. Water committees have been established, each of which usually manages one water facility. Making water committees inclusive seems challenging. Although bringing water to the household is predominantly a task undertaken by women (and their children), the study found that in all sites except for one, the water committee leaders were men The water committees also do not seem to be very effective in counteracting the top-down nature of service provision. The study found that in some cases the functioning of water facilities was compromised if the organization that constructed the facility did not take into account the community’s knowledge of water sources in determining where to locate the facility.
Economic implications of foreign exchange rationing in Ethiopia
(Working Paper, 2009) Dorosh, Paul A.; Robinson, Sherman; Ahmed, Hashim A.
Ethiopia enjoyed remarkable economic growth from 2004/05 to 2008/09, in large part due to increases in foreign transfers and capital inflows combined with expanded domestic credit to fund major increases in private and public investments in infrastructure and housing. However, this rapid growth was accompanied by a major appreciation of the real exchange rate (by 34 percent between July 2004 and July 2008) that reduced incentives for domestic production of exportables and non-protected importables. Moreover, major external shocks to the economy (including increases in world prices of fuel in 2007 and early 2008) exacerbated foreign exchange and macro-economic imbalances. Beginning in March 2008, access to foreign exchange for imports has been restricted (rationed) to avoid excessive drawdown of foreign exchange reserves. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model simulations suggest that there are substantial adverse efficiency and distributional effects of foreign exchange rationing. Foreign exchange controls result in the creation of large rents that likely accrue mainly to nonpoor households. At the same time, foreign exchange controls reduce economic efficiency so that real incomes from factors of production (land, capital and labor) decline, as do overall household incomes (except for those who gain large rents). Moreover, foreign exchange controls inhibit depreciation of the real exchange rate, and thus slow or prevent reversal of the real exchange rate appreciation between 2004/05 and 2007/08, which has resulted in major price disincentives for exports and production of import substitutes. The modeling results presented here are not meant as definitive estimates, but rather as indicators of the broad magnitudes of the effect of the policies simulated. Further efforts are needed to refine the model simulations so as to include the effects of changes in world prices and to assess dynamic effects of shocks and policies on growth and income distribution. Nonetheless, the broad policy implications of this analysis are clear. There are substantial costs to both foreign exchange rationing and real exchange rate appreciation in terms of growth (reduced incentives for production of tradables) and income distribution (large rents accruing to the non-poor). Policy reforms need not involve full liberalization of the foreign exchange market, however. Various versions of managed floats and controls in foreign capital markets exist that can gradually reduce economic rents, improve incentives for exports and increase overall economic efficiency. Indeed, policies since late 2008 have effectively reduced the earlier appreciation of the real exchange rate. To recover more fully from the effects of the adverse external price and capital inflow shocks of 2007 and 2008, and to sustain the rapid propoor growth of recent years, though, further measures to restore real price incentives to exports, and reduce rents and economic inefficiencies arising from import rationing should be considered.
Recent trends and future prospects for agricultural growth, poverty reduction and investment in Southern Africa
(Report, 2009) The Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System
Weathering the storm:: Agricultural Development, investment, and poverty in Africa following the recent food price crisis
(Report, 2009) Omilola, Babatunde; Lambert, Melissa
Agriculture is crucial for development in Africa, as the majority of the population lives in rural areas and at least 70 percent of the workforce is engaged in agriculture. In many African countries, growth in agriculture is the most effective strategy for reducing poverty and promoting overall economic growth (Diao et al. 2007). The period covered in this report was in many ways a positive year for African agriculture. The G8 Summit, held in July 2009 in Italy, recognized the importance of agriculture for development and the critical need to increase financial and technical support to global agriculture and food security amid emerging challenges such as the global economic crisis. Leaders at the summit issued an official statement on global food insecurity and pledged to mobilize $20 billion to tackle the issue in the next three years. At the national level, dozens of African countries have pledged to implement the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) and the African Union (AU). This African-led plan aims to stimulate agriculture on the continent to achieve the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1) of halving poverty and hunger by 2015. To do so, countries are expected to pursue 6 percent average annual agriculture growth at the national level, allocate 10 percent of national budgets to the agricultural sector, and improve overall policy efficiency through peer-review and accountability.
Infrastructure and cluster development: A case study of handloom weavers in Ethiopia
(Brief, 2009) Ayele, Gezahegn; Chamberlin, Jordan; Moorman, Lisa; Wamisho, Kassu; Zhang, Xiaobo
This paper evaluates the impacts of access to infrastructure on development of handloom weaving clusters in Ethiopia based on a survey collected in both urban and rural areas. Geographical clustering enables entrepreneurs with limited capital to enter the business through shared workspaces and greater specialization of labor. In towns with electricity access, producers work longer hours by sharing workspaces with electric lights at lower rental cost, resulting in higher labor productivity.
Agriculture performance in Gujarat since 2000
(Report, 2009) Gulati, Ashok; Shah, Tushaar; Shreedhar, Ganga

Browse

Recent Submissions