IFPRI Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/128834

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Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal
(Journal Article, 2025-08-10) Pradesha, Angga; Siddig, Khalid; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
Feeding a growing global population while conserving natural resources remains a central challenge of Sustainable Intensification (SI). Despite decades of SI efforts, cropland expansion in many developing countries continues to accelerate, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Even with observed increases in crop yields, studies suggest that farmers continue to expand cropland, underscoring the need to consider market dynamics and the economywide effects of productivity gains. This study offers a new perspective on achieving transformational sustainable land intensification by treating farming activities as investment decisions shaped by risk and return under production and markets uncertainties. Unlike the traditional SI strategies that focus on efficiency gains through improved inputs or agronomic practices, we apply an optimal portfolio analysis to cropland allocation, aiming to enhance farming efficiency by considering market interconnections across sectors. Using Senegal as a case study, we demonstrate that adopting an optimal diversification strategy on new cropland investment could reduce land expansion needs by up to 68 % by 2030. This strategy not only helps mitigate emissions and reduce water footprint but also enhances crop biodiversity. Socioeconomic and environmental benefits are found to be greater when the country promotes high-value crops in its portfolio, such as fruits and vegetables, compared to grain crops. Our findings also contribute to ongoing debates around land-sparing versus land-sharing strategies and offer new insights into the drivers of cropland expansion in light of current global land use patterns.
Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar
(Journal Article, 2025-09) Goeb, Joseph; San, Cho Cho; Belton, Ben; Synt, Nang Lun Kham; Aung, Nilar; Maredia, Mywish; Minten, Bart
Gender-just mitigation in the agrifood systems sector: Potential and pitfalls
(Journal Article, 2025-10) Nassif, Gabriella; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth
Mitigation action in agrifood systems is essential for addressing growing negative impacts from climate change. It remains unclear, however, to what extent mitigation in the agrifood systems space addresses gender inequalities and involves women as agents of climate action. This article reviews the literature to identify the main linkages between gender and mitigation in agrifood systems, examines the key barriers preventing women from equitably participating in and benefiting from mitigation actions in agrifood systems, and concludes with best practices to mainstream gender in mitigation actions in a substantive and sustainable way. Promising approaches include strengthening women's land rights; supporting women's economic empowerment through access to finance, information, and opportunities; and supporting women's groups. JEL codes: Q10, Q18, Q20, Q24, Q54
Income aspirations and migration: Evidence from rural Tajikistan
(Journal Article, 2025) Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.
Vulnerability to adverse climate change: Evidence from rural Bangladesh
(Journal Article, 2025) Tian, Junyan
The impact of extreme weather events on global soybean markets and China's imports
(Journal Article, 2025) Hu, Xinran; Zhang, Yumei; Fan, Shenggen; Chen, Kevin Z.; Wu, Qi
China imports 65% of the globally traded soybeans to meet the demand for vegetable oil and animal feed, accounting for about 85% of the country's total consumption. Extreme weather events (EWEs) significantly disrupt the global soybean market, with impacts transmitted to China. Using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) and a global agricultural partial equilibrium model, this research examines the effects of EWEs on global soybean production, trade, and China's soybean-related sectors. The findings indicate that single-country EWEs have modest impacts, but simultaneous EWEs in multiple countries lead to global soybean production declines of 8.8%–17.1%, resulting in world price increases of 9.5%–33.2% and a decrease in China's imports by 1.5%–20.7%. Soybean oil and meal prices in China would increase by 0.8%–16.7%, and meat prices would rise by 0.1%–3.9%. Consequently, consumer spending on soybeans and meat may increase by 10.7–174.1 billion yuan. China's soybean stocks play a crucial role in mitigating the impacts of EWEs. Releasing stocks can limit soybean price hikes by up to 8.3% and meat price hikes by up to 1%, potentially lowering consumer spending on soybeans and meat by up to 37.4 billion yuan. Several measures are proposed to mitigate the impacts of EWEs and enhance resilience, including international cooperation for stabilising production, improving domestic stock and demand management, and building production capacity.
An environmentally-extended input-output analysis of province-level carbon emissions from energy use in China's food system
(Journal Article, 2025-06) Song, Ziqian; Zhang, Yumei; Zhang, Xiangyang; Chen, Kevin
A comparative study of the legal and regulatory dimension of seed sector development in Sub-Saharan Africa using regulatory systems maps: The case of Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda
(Journal Article, 2025-08) Kuhlmann, Katrin; Nalinya, Adron Naggayi; Francis, Tara; Spielman, David J.
Helping rural women secure their land and resource rights: Reach, benefit, empower, or transform?
(Journal Article, 2025-05) Larson, Anne M.; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S.
Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities
(Journal Article, 2025) Mamun, Abdullah; Laborde Debucquet, David
Multidisciplinary capacity-strengthening for food security and nutrition policy analysis: Lessons from Malawi
(Journal Article, 1997-01) Babu, Suresh Chandra
Lack of sufficient analytical capacity in most of the developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa has been frequently suggested as a major factor in determining the appropriateness of food and nutrition policy interventions. This paper documents an approach implemented in Malawi for the past seven years to develop multidisciplinary capacity to analyse food and nutrition policies and programmes. A conceptual framework for identifying the areas of capacity-strengthening in food and nutrition planning and policy analysis is developed. Generalizable lessons from the Malawi experience are presented. Various issues that relate to enhancing the efficiency of capacity-strengthening programmes in sub-Saharan Africa are addressed. It is argued that continuous dialogue between food and nutrition researchers and policy decision makers and between the trainers in academic institutions and donor agencies is fundamental for achieving the goals of improved capacity for food and nutrition policy analysis.
Profiling Chinese entrepreneurs
(Journal Article, 2025-08) Huang, Qing; Wang, Ruixin; Xie, Yu; Zhang, Xiaobo
Entrepreneurship has played a crucial role in China's economic growth. However, research has predominantly focused on listed firms and state-owned enterprises, overlooking the vast number of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) due to data paucity. Limited knowledge exists on the characteristics of entrepreneurs, particularly those in the SME sector. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by profiling two types of Chinese entrepreneurs: self-employed and incorporated private business owners. The analysis utilizes data from two large surveys of entrepreneurs and salaried workers conducted in the same six provinces of China (N = 8948, comprising 3218 self-employed entrepreneurs, 1338 incorporated entrepreneurs, and 4392 salaried workers). The comparison reveals that self-employed entrepreneurs share more similarities with incorporated entrepreneurs than salaried workers in terms of key personality traits. Both groups of entrepreneurs exhibit higher risk tolerance, greater trust in others, and stronger interpersonal skills compared to their salaried counterparts. On the other hand, self-employed entrepreneurs align more closely with salaried workers in terms of human capital and family background than with incorporated entrepreneurs. The findings suggest that equalizing opportunities, particularly in education, could pave the way for self-employed entrepreneurs to transition into incorporated entrepreneurship.
Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa
(Journal Article, 2025-06-17) Ittersum, Martin K. van; Alimagham, Seyyedmajid; Silva, João Vasco; Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel; Baijukya, Frederick P.; Bala, Abdullahi; Chikowo, Regis; Grassini, Patricio; de Groot, Hugo L.E.; Nshizirungu, Aphrodis; Mahamane Soulé, Abdelkader; Sulser, Timothy B.; Taulya, Godfrey; Amor Tenorio, Fatima; Tesfaye, Kindie; Yuan, Shen; van Loon, Marloes P.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world’s largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha−1 y−1 is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy.
Book Review
(Journal Article, 2006-08) Zhang, Xiaobo
Social identity and crisis resilience in agriculture: Caste, gender, and migration in Nepal
(Journal Article, 2025-09) Alvi, Muzna; Barooah, Prapti; Saini, Smriti; Kishore, Avinash
Capacity to weather economic shocks is often mediated by social identity, which in turn determines access to social, economic and physical capital. We study the repercussions of a large economic shock on access to agriculture inputs, agricultural extension, output markets, and the consequent effects on income and livelihoods in rural Nepal. We focus on heterogeneity by caste, gender, and household migration status, using panel survey data from 2300 maize farmers. We observe prolonged effects of the 2020 pandemic induced lockdowns on the incomes of farmers, driven in part by reduced remittances. The shock intensified inequalities in agriculture, especially for female farmers and farmers from disadvantaged caste groups. As the economic impacts of multiple crises continue, policy measures to support the agriculture sector should target disadvantaged farmers, while simultaneously implementing long term strategies to shield the agriculture sector from future shocks.
Zinc distribution in structural components of high kernel‑zinc maize and its retention after milling
(Journal Article, 2025-10) Taleon, Victor; Palacios-Rojas, Natalia; Dollah, Yusuf; Rosales, Aldo; Kalejaiye, Olatundun; Menkir, Abebe
High kernel‑zinc maize (HKZM) has the potential to contribute to addressing zinc deficiency in regions with high maize consumption, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, milling HKZM may lead to loss of zinc when removing the pericarp and embryo. This study evaluated the zinc distribution in kernel components of HKZM maize grown in different environments, and examined how milling affected its zinc concentration. The zinc concentration in HKZM lines was 27.0–30.7 μg g−1 while in conventional maize it was 19.5–22.6 μg g−1. Zinc in maize endosperm represented 20.5 to 28.2 % of the total kernel zinc while that in the embryo represented 68.1 to 75.7 %. HKZM retained 43 % of its kernel zinc after milling, resulting in flour with 5 μg g−1 higher zinc concentration compared to regular maize flour. Environmental factors had a significant effect on kernel zinc concentrations. Maize grain from commercial mills had 21 μg g−1 zinc, with zinc losses of 22 % to 65 % during milling, resulting in flours with 6–10 μg g−1 of zinc. While HKZM shows promise in alleviating zinc deficiency, its anticipated impact may be limited in regions where refined maize is frequently used for making foods. The development of maize varieties with higher zinc concentration in the endosperm, along with promoting increased consumption of less refined maize products can boost zinc intake for deficient populations.
Leveraging agricultural production organizations to reduce fertilizer use: Evidence from China
(Journal Article, 2025-05) Xu, Meng; Wang, Xiaoxi; Chen, Kevin Z.
Smallholder-dominated agriculture in China faces severe fertilizer overuse due to fragmented land, limited mechanization, and low adoption of advanced agricultural technologies. Agricultural production organizations (e.g., family farms, agricultural cooperatives, and agricultural enterprises), characterized by their relatively large scale and advanced agricultural practices, are considered potential solutions for promoting more sustainable practices. This study investigates whether and how different agricultural production organization forms are associated with fertilizer use in China. Linking detailed business registry data with county-level panel data, we find that agricultural enterprises and cooperatives are associated with reductions in fertilizer use at the county level, while family farms do not show a significant relationship. Agricultural mechanization and land consolidation are potential channels through which agricultural enterprises and cooperatives are linked to these reductions. Further analysis with household survey data suggests associations between these two types of organizations and reductions in smallholders’ fertilizer inputs through agricultural services. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that agricultural enterprises have a more pronounced effect in areas with extensive land transfer, advanced fertilization techniques, and in the eastern and plain regions of China. Agricultural cooperatives, benefiting from their unique governance structure, consistently show negative associations with fertilizer use regardless of land transfer, fertilization techniques, and topography constraints. Our findings provide insights into pathways for transitioning smallholder farming toward sustainable agriculture.
High-frequency monitoring enables machine learning–based forecasting of acute child malnutrition for early warning
(Journal Article, 2025-06-06) Constenla-Villoslada, Susana; Liu, Yanyan; McBride, Linden; Ouma, Clinton; Mutanda, Nelson; Barrett, Christopher B.
The number of acutely food insecure people worldwide has doubled since 2017, increasing demand for early warning systems (EWS) that can predict food emergencies. Advances in computational methods, and the growing availability of near-real time remote sensing data, suggest that big data approaches might help meet this need. But such models have thus far exhibited low predictive skill with respect to subpopulation-level acute malnutrition indicators. We explore whether updating training data with high frequency monitoring of the predictand can help improve machine learning models’ predictive performance with respect to child acute malnutrition by directly learning the dynamic determinants of rapidly evolving acute malnutrition crises. We combine supervised machine learning methods and remotely sensed feature sets with time series child anthropometric data from EWS’ sentinel sites to generate accurate forecasts of acute malnutrition at operationally meaningful time horizons. These advances can enhance intertemporal and geographic targeting of humanitarian response to impending food emergencies that otherwise have unacceptably high case fatality rates.
The process of decentralizing public administration: Insights from new local governments in Nepal
(Journal Article, 2025) Palikhe, Aruna; Maharjan, Nanda Kumar; Kyle, Jordan; Pradhan, Mamata; Adhikari, Madan
Impact of food system interventions to increase fruit and vegetable intake among urban adults in Nigeria and Vietnam
(Journal Article, 2025-04) Pastori, Giulia; Talsma, Elise F.; Feskens, Edith J. M.; Huong, Le Thi; Samuel, Folake O.; Shittu, Oluyemisi F.; Eyinla, Toluwalope E.; de Brauw, Alan; Ambler, Kate; Wertheim-Heck, Sigrid; Hernandez, Ricardo; Even, Brice; Meldrum, Gennifer; De Filippo, Amanda; Xuan, Le Thi Thanh; Phuong, Ngo Thi Ha; Mai, Truong Tuyet; Lundy, Mark; Brouwer, Inge D.
Fruit and vegetable consumption is below the WHO recommendations, globally, in Southeast Asia, and in West Africa. Affordability, accessibility, and acceptability are the main drivers of consumption. Nutrition-sensitive food system interventions that address these drivers may be effective in increasing fruit and vegetable consumption. This study evaluates the effect of an integrated nutrition-sensitive program that aimed to increase fruit and vegetable consumption in low-income urban adults in Hanoi, Vietnam (n = 582), and Ibadan, Nigeria (n = 626), through the simultaneous implementation of three interventions at the market and consumer levels. Fruit and vegetable intake data were collected after eight months of exposure to the program with repeated quantitative 24-hour recalls and exposure effect was estimated with inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment, adjusting for potential confounders. The impact size on total fruits and vegetables (144 g/d, 95%CI 93, 196), fruits (137 g/d, 95%CI 93, 183) and vegetables (6 g/d, 95%CI -12, 24) showed that intake was higher in the exposed Nigerian population than the control group. In Vietnam, intakes of fruits and vegetables in the exposed group did not statistically differ from the control group when controlling for differences between groups with propensity scores. Participants exposed to all three interventions reported slightly higher intakes compared to those who were exposed to fewer interventions, but these differences were not statistically significant. Integrated approaches of nutrition-sensitive food system interventions need to be implemented to increase fruit and vegetable consumption. Co-creation of interventions provides the possibility to address the different drivers and barriers of healthy diets specific of the context.

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