IFPRI Journal Articles

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Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa
(Journal Article, 2025-06-17) Ittersum, Martin K. van; Alimagham, Seyyedmajid; Silva, João Vasco; Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel; Baijukya, Frederick P.; Bala, Abdullahi; Chikowo, Regis; Grassini, Patricio; de Groot, Hugo L.E.; Nshizirungu, Aphrodis; Mahamane Soulé, Abdelkader; Sulser, Timothy B.; Taulya, Godfrey; Amor Tenorio, Fatima; Tesfaye, Kindie; Yuan, Shen; van Loon, Marloes P.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world’s largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha−1 y−1 is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy.
Book Review
(Journal Article, 2006-08) Zhang, Xiaobo
Social identity and crisis resilience in agriculture: Caste, gender, and migration in Nepal
(Journal Article, 2025-09) Alvi, Muzna; Barooah, Prapti; Saini, Smriti; Kishore, Avinash
Capacity to weather economic shocks is often mediated by social identity, which in turn determines access to social, economic and physical capital. We study the repercussions of a large economic shock on access to agriculture inputs, agricultural extension, output markets, and the consequent effects on income and livelihoods in rural Nepal. We focus on heterogeneity by caste, gender, and household migration status, using panel survey data from 2300 maize farmers. We observe prolonged effects of the 2020 pandemic induced lockdowns on the incomes of farmers, driven in part by reduced remittances. The shock intensified inequalities in agriculture, especially for female farmers and farmers from disadvantaged caste groups. As the economic impacts of multiple crises continue, policy measures to support the agriculture sector should target disadvantaged farmers, while simultaneously implementing long term strategies to shield the agriculture sector from future shocks.
Zinc distribution in structural components of high kernel‑zinc maize and its retention after milling
(Journal Article, 2025-10) Taleon, Victor; Palacios-Rojas, Natalia; Dollah, Yusuf; Rosales, Aldo; Kalejaiye, Olatundun; Menkir, Abebe
High kernel‑zinc maize (HKZM) has the potential to contribute to addressing zinc deficiency in regions with high maize consumption, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, milling HKZM may lead to loss of zinc when removing the pericarp and embryo. This study evaluated the zinc distribution in kernel components of HKZM maize grown in different environments, and examined how milling affected its zinc concentration. The zinc concentration in HKZM lines was 27.0–30.7 μg g−1 while in conventional maize it was 19.5–22.6 μg g−1. Zinc in maize endosperm represented 20.5 to 28.2 % of the total kernel zinc while that in the embryo represented 68.1 to 75.7 %. HKZM retained 43 % of its kernel zinc after milling, resulting in flour with 5 μg g−1 higher zinc concentration compared to regular maize flour. Environmental factors had a significant effect on kernel zinc concentrations. Maize grain from commercial mills had 21 μg g−1 zinc, with zinc losses of 22 % to 65 % during milling, resulting in flours with 6–10 μg g−1 of zinc. While HKZM shows promise in alleviating zinc deficiency, its anticipated impact may be limited in regions where refined maize is frequently used for making foods. The development of maize varieties with higher zinc concentration in the endosperm, along with promoting increased consumption of less refined maize products can boost zinc intake for deficient populations.
Leveraging agricultural production organizations to reduce fertilizer use: Evidence from China
(Journal Article, 2025-05) Xu, Meng; Wang, Xiaoxi; Chen, Kevin Z.
Smallholder-dominated agriculture in China faces severe fertilizer overuse due to fragmented land, limited mechanization, and low adoption of advanced agricultural technologies. Agricultural production organizations (e.g., family farms, agricultural cooperatives, and agricultural enterprises), characterized by their relatively large scale and advanced agricultural practices, are considered potential solutions for promoting more sustainable practices. This study investigates whether and how different agricultural production organization forms are associated with fertilizer use in China. Linking detailed business registry data with county-level panel data, we find that agricultural enterprises and cooperatives are associated with reductions in fertilizer use at the county level, while family farms do not show a significant relationship. Agricultural mechanization and land consolidation are potential channels through which agricultural enterprises and cooperatives are linked to these reductions. Further analysis with household survey data suggests associations between these two types of organizations and reductions in smallholders’ fertilizer inputs through agricultural services. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that agricultural enterprises have a more pronounced effect in areas with extensive land transfer, advanced fertilization techniques, and in the eastern and plain regions of China. Agricultural cooperatives, benefiting from their unique governance structure, consistently show negative associations with fertilizer use regardless of land transfer, fertilization techniques, and topography constraints. Our findings provide insights into pathways for transitioning smallholder farming toward sustainable agriculture.
High-frequency monitoring enables machine learning–based forecasting of acute child malnutrition for early warning
(Journal Article, 2025-06-06) Constenla-Villoslada, Susana; Liu, Yanyan; McBride, Linden; Ouma, Clinton; Mutanda, Nelson; Barrett, Christopher B.
The number of acutely food insecure people worldwide has doubled since 2017, increasing demand for early warning systems (EWS) that can predict food emergencies. Advances in computational methods, and the growing availability of near-real time remote sensing data, suggest that big data approaches might help meet this need. But such models have thus far exhibited low predictive skill with respect to subpopulation-level acute malnutrition indicators. We explore whether updating training data with high frequency monitoring of the predictand can help improve machine learning models’ predictive performance with respect to child acute malnutrition by directly learning the dynamic determinants of rapidly evolving acute malnutrition crises. We combine supervised machine learning methods and remotely sensed feature sets with time series child anthropometric data from EWS’ sentinel sites to generate accurate forecasts of acute malnutrition at operationally meaningful time horizons. These advances can enhance intertemporal and geographic targeting of humanitarian response to impending food emergencies that otherwise have unacceptably high case fatality rates.
The process of decentralizing public administration: Insights from new local governments in Nepal
(Journal Article, 2025) Palikhe, Aruna; Maharjan, Nanda Kumar; Kyle, Jordan; Pradhan, Mamata; Adhikari, Madan
Impact of food system interventions to increase fruit and vegetable intake among urban adults in Nigeria and Vietnam
(Journal Article, 2025-04) Pastori, Giulia; Talsma, Elise F.; Feskens, Edith J. M.; Huong, Le Thi; Samuel, Folake O.; Shittu, Oluyemisi F.; Eyinla, Toluwalope E.; de Brauw, Alan; Ambler, Kate; Wertheim-Heck, Sigrid; Hernandez, Ricardo; Even, Brice; Meldrum, Gennifer; De Filippo, Amanda; Xuan, Le Thi Thanh; Phuong, Ngo Thi Ha; Mai, Truong Tuyet; Lundy, Mark; Brouwer, Inge D.
Fruit and vegetable consumption is below the WHO recommendations, globally, in Southeast Asia, and in West Africa. Affordability, accessibility, and acceptability are the main drivers of consumption. Nutrition-sensitive food system interventions that address these drivers may be effective in increasing fruit and vegetable consumption. This study evaluates the effect of an integrated nutrition-sensitive program that aimed to increase fruit and vegetable consumption in low-income urban adults in Hanoi, Vietnam (n = 582), and Ibadan, Nigeria (n = 626), through the simultaneous implementation of three interventions at the market and consumer levels. Fruit and vegetable intake data were collected after eight months of exposure to the program with repeated quantitative 24-hour recalls and exposure effect was estimated with inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment, adjusting for potential confounders. The impact size on total fruits and vegetables (144 g/d, 95%CI 93, 196), fruits (137 g/d, 95%CI 93, 183) and vegetables (6 g/d, 95%CI -12, 24) showed that intake was higher in the exposed Nigerian population than the control group. In Vietnam, intakes of fruits and vegetables in the exposed group did not statistically differ from the control group when controlling for differences between groups with propensity scores. Participants exposed to all three interventions reported slightly higher intakes compared to those who were exposed to fewer interventions, but these differences were not statistically significant. Integrated approaches of nutrition-sensitive food system interventions need to be implemented to increase fruit and vegetable consumption. Co-creation of interventions provides the possibility to address the different drivers and barriers of healthy diets specific of the context.
Validation of the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) among children 10 to 14 years of age
(Journal Article, 2025-05) Batis, Carolina; Castellanos-Gutiérrez, Analí; Ali, Nazia Binte; Arsenault, Joanne E.; Atayde, Agata M. P.; Bromage, Sabri; Deitchler, Megan; Diop, Loty; Gelli, Aulo; Kehoe, Sarah H.; Leonardo, Sofia; Moursi, Mourad; Nkengfack, Brunhilda Tegomoh; Willett, Walter C.
Objective We aimed to evaluate the performance of the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) in predicting nutrient intake and health outcomes among children aged 10–14 years old in Mexico, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China. For comparison, we evaluated other dietary metrics (Minimum Dietary Diversity for Women [MDD-W], the Global Dietary Recommendations score [GDR], and the Healthy Eating Index–2020 [HEI-2020]). Background Given the magnitude of the health burden associated with all forms of malnutrition, monitoring dietary quality is fundamental to improving global health. Early adolescence is a key stage of development, and thus validated tools to measure diet quality that are pertinent for the global context are needed. Methods The GDQS and comparison metrics were estimated from 24-hour dietary recalls (Mexico: n = 2533; United States: n = 685; China: n = 1087, and United Kingdom: n = 1675). Regression models were conducted to evaluate the association between the change in 1 SD of each metric score and usual intake of nutrients, mean probability of nutrient adequacy, and biomarker and anthropometric outcomes adjusted by age, sex, socioeconomic status, educational level, urban/rural area, and usual energy intake (for dietary outcomes). Results The GDQS showed a higher diet quality in China (16.7 points) and Mexico (15.9 points), followed by the United States (13.6 points) and the United Kingdom (12.2 points). The GDQS was found to be associated with the intake of micronutrients as well as noncommunicable disease (NCD)–related nutrients (fiber, added sugar, and saturated fat) (P < .05). The performance of the GDQS was comparable to all other metrics; yet, in the case of NCD-related nutrients the MDD-W was slightly inferior. Few associations were found across countries and metrics with biomarker and anthropometric outcomes. Conclusion The GDQS was associated with the intake of micronutrients and NCD-related nutrients; these results suggest that the GDQS is an appropriate tool to monitor dietary quality among 10–14-year-olds across several contexts globally.
Development and validation of the global diet quality score (GDQS) for children 5 to 9 years of age
(Journal Article, 2025-05-01) Arsenault, Joanne E.; Ali, Nazia Binte; Atayde, Agata M. P.; Batis, Carolina; Becquey, Elodie; Bromage, Sabri; Deitchler, Megan; Diop, Loty; Gelli, Aulo; Castellanos Gutierrez, Anali; Kehoe, Sarah H.; Krishnaveni, Ghattu V.; Leonardo, Sofia; Moursi, Mourad; Nkengfack, Brunhilda Tegomoh
Objective The purpose of the study was to develop and validate a Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) for children aged 5–9 years adapted from the existing GDQS developed for adults. Background Diet quality is important for nutrient adequacy and risk of nutrition-related chronic disease. A diet quality metric for global use with children is needed. Methods The 25 food groups of the GDQS were used to assign points for categories of consumption according to gram-weight cutoffs adapted for children based on energy requirements. As a preliminary step, alternative versions of gram-weight cutoffs were tested by comparing correlation analyses using 4 existing dietary datasets from low-, middle-, and high-income countries. A final GDQS metric version, selected based on strength of correlations and operational feasibility, was further examined in regression analyses with individual nutrient intake an overall nutrient intake adequacy score and biomarker and anthropometry outcomes in 7 dietary datasets from different countries. Regressions were also undertaken with other diet quality metrics to compare their relative performance with that of the GDQS. Results The GDQS had strong associations with most nutrient intakes, including an overall mean nutrient adequacy score and some nutrients associated with noncommunicable disease risk, such as fiber and added sugar. Biomarker data were limited in the available datasets and few associations with GDQS were found. The GDQS performed better or as well as other dietary quality metrics in predicting nutrient intakes. Conclusion The GDQS was associated with nutrient intakes and fills a gap in a global diet quality metric for children. The GDQS will be a useful tool to measure diet quality and monitoring changes in diet quality over time.
Development and validation of the global diet quality score (GDQS) for children 24 to 59 months of age
(Journal Article, 2025-05-01) Ali, Nazia Binte; Arsenault, Joanne E.; Castellanos-Gutiérrez, Analí; Moursi, Mourad; Deitchler, Megan; Batis, Carolina; Atayde, Agata Marina Perez; Kehoe, Sarah H.; Tadesse, Amare W.; Leonardo, Sofia; Nkengfack, Brunhilda Tegomoh; Diop, Loty; Gelli, Aulo; Fawzi, Wafaie W.; Willett, Walter C.; Bromage, Sabri
Objectives To develop the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) for children aged 24-59 months and evaluate its performance in predicting outcomes related to nutrient adequacy and diet-related noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk. Background The GDQS is a food-based metric developed and validated for capturing diets' contributions to nutrient adequacy and NCD risk among adult men and nonpregnant and nonlactating women aged ≥15 years globally. Despite the importance of ensuring healthy diets in preschool children and the need for systematic monitoring, no food-based metrics exist that holistically measure diet quality among children aged 24-59 months in diverse populations. Methods We developed candidate versions of the GDQS for children aged 24-59 months by adapting the gram cutoff values used for adults to account for children’s lower energy requirements. Using dietary data sets from Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, China, Ethiopia, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States, we evaluated candidate versions’ performance in predicting energy-adjusted nutrient intakes and adequacy, nutritional biomarkers, and overweight using Spearman’s correlation and multivariable-adjusted regression models, and we statistically compared performance of the strongest candidate with that of the Minimum Dietary Diversity–Women (MDD-W) indicator and Global Dietary Recommendations (GDR) score. Results The GDQS exhibited significant (P <.05) positive correlations with energy-adjusted intakes of protein, fiber, and most micronutrients in most data sets; significant negative correlations with added sugar and saturated fat in 2 data sets; and inconsistent correlations with monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat. In multivariable-adjusted models, the GDQS, MDD-W, and GDR were positively associated with serum folate in Ethiopia (and the GDQS was in the United Kingdom), and the GDR was positively associated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in China (P <.05). The GDQS was more strongly associated with the mean probability of adequacy of 8 nutrients than the GDR in 2 data sets, whereas the MDD-W outperformed the GDQS in 3 data sets (P <.05). Conclusion The GDQS is a useful metric for measuring diet quality among children aged 24-59 months in diverse populations.
Effect of intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine on maternal gestational weight gain in low-income and middle-income countries: A systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials
(Journal Article, 2025-06) Liu, Enju; Partap, Uttara; Shinde, Sachin; Wang, Dongqing; Costa, Janaína Calu; Cliffer, Ilana R.; Wang, Molin; Nookala, Sudeer Kumar; Subramoney, Vishak; Briggs, Brittany; Hamer, Davidson H.; Akurut, Hellen; Argaw, Alemayehu; Ashorn, Ulla; Chinkhumba, Jobiba; Desai, Meghna; Divala, Titus H.; Elliott, Alison M.; Gutman, Julie R.; Hien, Alain; Huybregts, Lieven; Kajubi, Richard; Kakuru, Abel; Kariuki, Simon; Lachat, Carl; Laufer, Miriam K.; Luntamo, Mari; Maleta, Kenneth; Mathanga, Don P.; Ochieng, Teddy; Ome-Kaius, Maria; Patson, Noel; Roberfroid, Dominique; Rogerson, Stephen J.; Toe, Laéticia Céline; Unger, Holger W.; Webb, Emily L.; Fawzi, Wafaie W.
Background Studies have consistently demonstrated beneficial effects of intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) on reducing malaria infection and improving birth outcomes among pregnant women in endemic areas. However, data on its impact on maternal gestational weight gain (GWG) are very limited. We aimed to conduct a two-stage meta-analysis of individual participant data to examine the effect of IPT with SP on GWG compared to other antimalarial regimens. Methods In this systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis, we conducted electronic literature searches of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library to identify eligible RCTs among pregnant women. We did not apply any language or publication date restrictions in the search. The initial search was conducted on August 4th, 2021, and updated on February 15th, 2025. The study-level inclusion criteria were as follow: 1) the studies must be randomised controlled trials (RCTs), which could be individually randomised, cluster randomised, or a combination of both; 2) study participants were pregnant at enrollment or enrolled before pregnancy and followed up in pregnancy; 3) studies were conducted in a low-income, lower-middle-income, or upper-middle-income economy defined by the World Bank country classification for the 2021 fiscal year; 4) antimalaria and/or antibiotic interventions were provided during pregnancy; and 5) the intervention was provided alone or in combination with a co-intervention that was similar across arms. Since we focused on the intervention's effect on GWG in generally healthy pregnant women, we applied the following study-level exclusion criteria: 1) studies without any measures of maternal weight during pregnancy; and 2) studies conducted exclusively among women with pre-existing health conditions, such as anemia, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, or diabetes. Within each eligible trial, we further applied individual-level criteria to identify eligible individual participants, including 1) singleton pregnancies, 2) at least one weight measurement in the second or third trimesters, 3) known gestational ages at the time of weight measurements, and 4) availability of maternal height measure. Risk of bias for each trial was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool, version 2 (RoB 2). GWG percent adequacy (%) and total weight gain (gram) at delivery were calculated according to the Institute of Medicine 2009 guidelines. Linear regression models were used to estimate mean difference (MD) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in GWG percent adequacy and total weight gain across intervention arms. Results from individual trials were pooled using fixed-effects inverse-variance meta-analysis models. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023428794. Findings A total of 97 trials were identified in the search and sough for IPD, of them eight trials including 8550 pregnant women were included in the current analysis. Women who received IPTp with only 2 doses of SP had a greater GWG percent adequacy (MD: 5.61%; 95% CI: 2.61%, 8.60%; P = 0.0002; I2 = 84.26%), and total GWG in grams at delivery (MD: 702; 95% CI: 321, 1083; P = 0.0003; I2 = 83.78%) than those who received weekly chloroquine as prophylaxis. No significant differences in GWG percent adequacy (MD: −0.53%; 95% CI: −2.89%%, 1.83%; P = 0.66; I2 = 0.00%) or GWG grams (MD: −80; 95% CI: −380, 221; P = 0.60; I2 = 0.00%) were found between IPTp with 2-dose SP and monthly IPTp-SP (3-dose or more). Compared to women who received monthly IPTp-SP, those who received monthly IPTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (IPTp-DHA + PPQ) had a lower GWG percent adequacy (MD: −5.56%; 95% CI: −8.22%, −2.90%; P < 0.0001; I2 = 13.47%) and total GWG in grams (MD: −723; 95% CI: −1037, −410; P < 0.0001; I2 = 46.29%). Adding azithromycin to an antimalarial regimen was associated with a greater GWG percent adequacy (MD: 2.75%; 95% CI: 0.46%, 5.05%; P = 0.19; I2 = 0.00%) and total GWG in gram at delivery (MD: 485; 95% CI: 210, 760; P = 0.0005; I2 = 75.66%). Interpretation Our findings suggest that monthly IPTp-SP has superior effect on GWG compared to weekly chloroquine or IPTp-DHA + PPQ in malaria-endemic areas. The result provides further evidence indicating that IPTp-SP improves maternal weight gain, an important determinant of fetal growth beyond its antimalarial effects. Due to the limited number of trials with weight and height measures available for the IPD meta-analysis we were likely underpowered to detect any significant difference between 2-dose SP and monthly IPTp-SP. More efforts are warranted to examine the potential beneficial effect of adding azithromycin or DHA + PPQ to the standard antimalarial regimens.
A comparison of the effects of local and EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations on selected economic and environmental outcomes in India
(Journal Article, 2025-07) Singh, Vartika; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Mishra, Abhijeet; Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann
The global discourse is nearly unanimous that dietary transitions are crucial to achieve sustainability goals. In this context, healthy dietary recommendations offer demand-side solutions towards minimizing environmental impacts from food production. However, these guidelines have also faced some criticism for their blanket approach and limited consideration of regional preferences. Using a validated food-economy-environment integrated modelling framework, we compare between two types of healthy diets − the globally recommended EAT-Lancet diets and Indian government’s National Institute of Nutrition (NIN) local diets − by examining their impacts on agricultural production, agricultural commodity prices, food expenditures, trade impacts, Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and water withdrawals. Our results suggest that the adoption of regional recommendations (NIN diets) lead to better outcomes for select economic and environmental indicators. When India shifts to NIN diet, its domestic demand for cereal crops decreases, leading to a 36 % reduction in cereal crop production by 2050 and change in demand for sugars and animal-sourced foods (ASFs). This has the potential to reduce commodity prices of food by upto 24 % by 2050. A shift to the NIN diet in India reduces methane (CH4) emissions by 36 % and N2O by 35 % compared to business-as-usual, performing better than the EAT-Lancet diet, which reduces CH4 emissions by 13 %. Water withdrawals reduce almost by the same value under both the dietary scenarios primarily due to lesser dependence on cereal crops and livestock products. These findings remain consistent in our sensitivity analysis, with varying global trade scenarios, offering greater benefits of food systems transformation through liberal trade policies. Our analysis underscores the pivotal role of regional inclusivity in global assessments, enhancing our comprehension of how food systems can be reimagined to align with both food security and environmental sustainability.
Representation increases women's influence in climate deliberations: Evidence from community-managed forests in Malawi
(Journal Article, 2025) Clayton, Amanda; Dulani, Boniface; Kosec, Katrina; Robinson, Amanda Lea
Women's inclusion is now the norm in global and local initiatives to combat climate change. We examine how women's representation affects climate deliberations using the case of community-managed forests in Malawi. We run a lab-in-the-field experiment randomly varying the gender composition of six-member groups asked to deliberate on policies to combat local overharvesting. We find that any given woman has relatively more influence in group deliberations when women make up a larger share of the group, a change driven by men's assessments of women's influence. Women's presence also shifts the content of deliberations toward prospective solutions for which women have socially recognized expertise (cooking and replanting). Despite these changes, women and men do not prefer different deforestation policies, and women's presence does not meaningfully affect group decisions. Our work demonstrates how women's presence shapes climate deliberations but also calls into question claims that women's inclusion will necessarily affect climate decisions.
Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments
(Journal Article, 2025) Petsakos, Athanasios; Montes, Carlo; Falck-Zepeda, José; Pequeno, Diego Noleto Luz; Schiek, Benjamin; Gotor, Elisabetta
Regional and global economic models, combined with spatially distributed crop growth simulation models and hydrology models that simulate water supply and demand across sectors (among others), represent the most widely used quantitative approach for addressing questions related to food security under alternative future scenarios (e.g., for a recent reference, van Dijk et al., 2021). These integrated foresight modelling approaches, hereinafter referred to as “Agricultural Integrated Assessment Models” (AIAMs), provide a macro-level view of the global food system, encompassing, directly or indirectly, implicitly or explicitly, components outlined in contemporary definitions (HLPE, 2017). Due to the complex nature of modelling the effects of crop pests and pathogens (P&P) on crop performances, the use of AIAMs in P&P-related analyses has been scant and limited to hypothetical epidemics caused by specific P&Ps affecting a single crop (Godfray et al., 2016; Petsakos et al., 2023). This limitation, also identified in the ex-ante assessment of the pesticide reduction objective of the European Common Agricultural Policy (Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021), suggests that AIAMs overlook a critical element – one that has historically contributed to, or even triggered, famine events (Padmanabhan, 1973; Woodham-Smith, 1992). Given the importance of AIAMs in informing policies and shaping agricultural decisions at national and global scales (e.g., Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021; Fuglie et al., 2022), it is necessary to adress this gap.
Fruit and vegetable consumption among adolescent secondary school students in Boukombe and Natitingou, North Benin
(Journal Article, 2025) Houndolo, Melina Maureen; Houndolo, Sam; Jordan, Irmgard; Majaliwa, Elianna; Koukou, Elie; Ngianga-Bakwin, Kandala; Azandjeme, Colette; Katsivo, Melanie Nyambura; Termote, Céline; Hounkpatin, Waliou Amoussa
Fruit and vegetables (F&V) are recommended for a healthy life. Adolescence is a critical period for the onset of eating disorders and future health. F&V consumption among adolescents is globally low, making this group a key target for diet/nutrition-related interventions. This cross-sectional study aimed to assess F&V consumption among secondary school students in the food-insecure communes of Boukombe (rural) and Natitingou (urban), Benin. Using probabilistic random sampling, 303 students completed F&V intake frequency questionnaires and 24-h dietary recalls on school and non-school days. Poisson models identified factors associated with F&V consumption. The results showed that only 8.8% (Boukombe) and 11% (Natitingou) of students consumed fruit at least twice per day, and over 80% of students had not eaten fruit in the preceding 24 h; 9.9% and 11.4%, respectively, consumed vegetables at least twice per day. On average, 45.5% of students in Boukombe and 68% in Natitingou consumed at least three types of vegetables on school days. The most commonly consumed fruits were oranges in Boukombe and lemons in Natitingou. Factors influencing fruit consumption included sex (p = 0.005), age (p = 0.04), and mothers’ occupation (p = 0.03) on school days/and school or non-school days, while commune (p = 0.00017) and ethnic group affected vegetable consumption. Such low F&V consumption among surveyed students is a matter of public health concern, as it is likely to affect their health―in terms of micronutrient deficiency―and intellectual performance. These results should incentivize nutrition researchers, project managers, public health officials, and policymakers to (re)design and implement broader measures targeting secondary school students’ dietary practices to increase their F&V consumption.
Accuracy of using weight and length in children under 24 months to screen for early childhood obesity: A systematic review
(Journal Article, 2025) Boncyk, Morgan; Leroy, Jef L.; Brander, Rebecca L.; Larson, Leila M.; Ruel, Marie T.; Frongillo, Edward A.
The global increase in early childhood overweight and obesity has prompted interest in early prediction of overweight and obesity to allow timely intervention and prevent lifelong consequences. A systematic review was conducted to assess the accuracy and feasibility of predicting overweight and obesity in individual three to seven-year-old children using data available in healthcare and community settings on children under 24 months of age. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42024509603) and followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. From 7,943 unique articles identified through PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, and Google Scholar, 14 studies met the inclusion criteria, 13 from high-income countries and one from a middle-income country. These studies evaluated the accuracy of predicting childhood overweight or obesity in individual children using anthropometrics-alone or multiple-predictor models. Anthropometrics-alone models yielded areas under the curve (AUCs) ≥0.56 with expert guidance and ≥0.77 with machine learning. Multiple-predictor models yielded AUC ≥0.68 with expert guidance and ≥0.76 with machine learning. The inclusion of child, parental, and community predictors improved predictive accuracy but led to greater variation in performance across models. Models were more accurate when children were older at the initial assessment, multiple assessments were made, and the time between assessment and outcome prediction was shorter. Prediction models with an AUC ≥0.70 used machine learning to optimize variable selection, limiting their practicality for broad-scale implementation in healthcare or community settings. There is insufficient evidence on the accuracy of overweight and obesity prediction models for children in low- and middle-income countries. Existing prediction models are not well-suited for broad-scale screening of individual children for risk of early childhood overweight or obesity.
Urbanization shapes West African diets throughout the rural-urban continuum
(Journal Article, 2025-06) Cockx, Lara; Boti, Bolou Bi David
Our understanding of how urbanization interacts with food consumption has been hindered by the lack of a unified definition of what constitutes an “urban” area. The use of a binary designation also fails to capture the complexity and diversity of settlement types and results in a focus on the “rural-urban divide”. This study combines nationally representative survey data on household food consumption from eight West African countries with geospatial data capturing the urbanization gradient following the global definition of the Degree or Urbanization. This allows us to analyse consumption of different food groups, diet quality, and macronutrient intakes throughout the rural-urban continuum. We find robust evidence of an increasing rural-urban gradient in total food consumption, as well as a gradual shift away from traditional staple foods, towards increased consumption of foods that require less or no preparation. Residing in more urbanized areas is associated with greater diet diversity and increased consumption of vegetables and animal-source foods. Yet, rising intakes of unhealthy foods and fats in particular along the rural-urban continuum contribute to a deterioration of diet quality. While the estimated effects are strongest in cities, these diet transitions also take place in peri-urban areas and rural areas. This confirms the importance of moving beyond a simple rural-urban dichotomy in research and policy related to food consumption. The demonstrated importance of foods eaten away from home across the entire rural-urban continuum further underscores the need for more research to better understand this sector and explore how it can contribute to both employment and food security.
Reshaping Chinese agrifood systems to enhance human nutrition: A scoping review of research
(Journal Article, 2025) Meng, Ting; Wang, Jingjing; Headey, Derek D.; Fan, Shenggen
From bargaining power to empowerment: Measuring the unmeasurable
(Journal Article, 2025-05) Quisumbing, Agnes R.
Measuring power is central to empirical work on intrahousehold and gender relations. This paper reviews how progress in the measurement of power within households has facilitated our understanding of household decision-making and creates new opportunities for programs and policy. Early efforts to test household models focused on measuring spousal bargaining power, usually in models featuring two decision-makers within the household. Proxy measures for bargaining power included age, education, assets, and “outside options” that could affect spouses’ threat points within marriage. Evidence rejecting the collective model of the household has influenced the design of policies and programs, notably conditional cash transfer programs. Efforts have since shifted to measuring empowerment, drawing on theories of agency and power. Since 2010, several measures of women's empowerment have been developed, including the Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) and its variants. A distinct feature of the WEAI, like other counting-based measures, is its decomposability into its component indicators, which makes identifying sources of disempowerment possible. The WEAI indicators also embody jointness of decision-making or ownership, which better reflects actual decision-making within households compared to 2-person bargaining models. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research. This paper was presented at a Plenary Session of the 32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE) 2024, held from 2–7 August, 2024 in New Delhi, India.

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