Water Data Science for Action (WDSA)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/140564

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 57

Estimating water levels in reservoirs using Sentinel-2 derived time series of surface water areas: a case study of 20 reservoirs in Burkina Faso
(Journal Article, 2025-05) Codjia, Audrey Kantz Dossou; Akpoti, Komlavi; Dembélé, Moctar; Yonaba, R.; Fowe, T.; Sankande, S.; Koissi, Modeste G. Déo-Gratias; Zwart, Sander J.
Reservoirs play a significant role in the mobilization of water resources in Burkina Faso, contributing to the management and availability of water for various purposes. Operational management of reservoirs requires accurate and timely water level information, which remote sensing can provide cost-effectively and with limited resources. In this study, the surface area of 20 reservoirs is first determined using a Random Forest classifier and Sentinel-2 images acquired between 2015 and 2022. The accuracy of the classified surface water areas is evaluated by calculating 5 accuracy assessment metrics. The classifications were validated using manually digitized water areas from high-resolution Google Earth images and compared to the Dynamic World (DW) land cover dataset. Afterward, the spatial variation in the areal extent of the reservoirs is analyzed over time. A linear relationship is established between the estimated surface area and the corresponding observed water level of the reservoirs. The results indicate that reservoir surface areas were accurately classified with Sentinel-2 images (Kappa above 90.35%) for all dates. Moreover, validation with high-resolution images provided an R2 of 0.99 and a Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 3.53%. Smaller reservoirs exhibit significant variations in surface areas over time as compared to larger ones, which are more stable. The relationship between surface area and water level is satisfactory (R2 ranging from 0.76 to 0.97) for 14 of the 20 analyzed reservoirs. The remaining six reservoirs are affected by aquatic plant intrusion which leads to an underestimation of the surface area. The high accuracy and operational feasibility of the proposed approach demonstrate that Sentinel-2 imagery and machine learning techniques can be recommended for reservoir mapping within the framework of water level monitoring in Burkina Faso.
Bridging scales and borders on water availability and use in the transboundary Volta River Basin: a water accounting approach
(Journal Article, 2025-06) Owusu, Afua; Akpoti, Komlavi; Leh, Mansoor; Perera, Tharindu; Madushanka, Lahiru; Mekonnen, Kirubel; Tinonetsana, Primrose; Tayebi, N.; Escalera-Rodriguez, A. C.; Fofana, R.; Velpuri, Naga Manohar
Study region: Volta Basin Study focus: Water management in transboundary basins is challenging due to the interaction of natural and human factors across political borders. The Volta River Basin, shared by six West African countries, exemplifies this with variable water distribution and socio-economic pressures. This study presents a comprehensive multi-scale water accounting of the basin, assessing water flows and usage at basin-wide, sub-basin, and riparian country scales from 2003 to 2021. New hydrological insights for the region: The results reveal average basin closure is 55 % with room for additional water allocation given that utilizable water in the basin is 20 km3 /year and almost 25 % of the basin’s exploitable water is non-recoverable water (wastewater). Sub-basin analysis showed variations in average annual rainfall, ranging from 940 to 1250 mm/year, and groundwater recharge rates (18–64 mm/year), with southern sub-basins receiving more rainfall and having higher recharge rates. Similarly at the country level, variability in rainfall (630–1220 mm/ year) and recharge rates (20–280 mm/year) were noted, with downstream countries benefiting from higher rainfall and significant inflows from upstream countries. The analysis underscored the interconnectedness of water use across the basin’s riparian countries. The study’s findings give insights for the strategic management of water resources and the crucial need for enhanced cooperation among riparian countries to address shared challenges and opportunities in the Volta Basin.
Pathway from water-conflict to water-peace in the Middle East and North Africa
(Journal Article, 2025-03) Khalifa, Muhammad; Al-Zu’bi, Maha; Brouziyne, Youssef
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with its arid and semi-arid climate, faces profound challenges in managing limited water resources. These challenges are further intensified by political tensions and socioeconomic inequalities, often resulting in water being an essential element in conflicts and tensions. Particularly during the last decade, the number of conflicts involving water has increased dramatically in MENA. This research explores the dynamics of water’s role in conflicts, actors and scales of conflict across five fragile MENA countries, where it serves as a weapon, a catalyst, and a casualty. The analysis revealed a significant increase in the number of water-related incidents during the last two decades in these countries, with devastating implications on multiple social, economic, and security dimensions. The study suggests a concentric circle transformation (CCT) framework with three tiers of strategies: foundational, supportive, and expansive to help move from water-conflict to water-peace in MENA. These strategies, with examples of interventions, support transformation to water-peace by integrating soft interventions like empowering local communities, raising awareness, with hard interventions such as building resilient infrastructures and leveraging the power of innovative technological solutions. The framework offers scalable and adaptable solutions for regions facing similar challenges globally.
Souss-Massa Online Water Accounting Dashboard: Innovation Package and Scaling Readiness (IPSR) Report
(Report, 2024-12-30) Al-Zu’bi, Maha; Akpoti, Komlavi; Brouziyne, Youssef
Future land use simulation modeling for sustainable urban development under the shared socioeconomic pathways in West African megacities: insights from Greater Accra Region
(Journal Article, 2025-03) Siabi, E. K.; Kabo-bah, A. T.; Anornu, G.; Akpoti, Komlavi; Mortey, E. M.; Incoom, A. B. M.; Yeboah, K. A.
The study explores the evolving land use patterns and their implications for sustainable development in Ghana and neighboring megacities. Using 15 years of historical Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) data combined with Land-Use Harmonization datasets, the study applies the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model to project future LULC dynamics under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios in the densely urbanized Greater Accra Region (GAR) of West Africa. Analyzing historical and current land use dynamics in the GAR revealed notable shifts, notably a decrease in Rangeland and an increase in Built-up areas. Future projections of LULC under SSP scenarios show continuous expansion of Built-up areas, particularly under SSP245 (middle of the road scenario) and SSP370 (Regional Rivalry scenario). This is consistent with results from the urban growth analysis using Urban Expansion Intensity Index (UEII), indicating high-speed expansion in baseline periods and shifts towards medium to high-speed expansion under SSP245 and SSP370 with low-speed expansion under the SSP126 (Sustainability scenario). Shannon entropy analysis shows dispersed urban sprawl, especially under SSP245 and SSP370, with rapid increases in Built-up areas and declines in green areas. For instance, the analysis of the landscape metrics reveal that built-up and green areas are projected to increase and decrease up to 87% and 12% respectively, under these scenarios. The decline in urban green areas was significantly influenced by proximity to the central business district (CBD), with green spaces diminishing more as distance to the CBD decreased. Therefore, relevant local legislation, such as the 2016 Land Use and Spatial Planning Act (Act 925) must be enforced, along with integrating urban initiatives and policies that promote green areas, is essential for ensuring the sustainability of urban ecosystems for the well-being of both humans and the environment. This enables West Africa to achieve its Global commitments as reflected in the UN SDGs, towards the New Urban Agenda (NUA) and the Africa Urban Agenda 2063.
First-ever community-level anticipatory action simulation for drought hazard in Sri Lanka
(Report, 2024-12-31) Alahacoon, Niranga; Amarnath, Giriraj
The Drought Anticipatory Action (AA) Simulation was conducted in Ellawewa Grama Niladhari Division (GND) within the Anuradhapura district of Sri Lanka to enhance community preparedness and resilience against drought hazards. This simulation aimed to equip communities with an AA framework for mitigating the adverse effects of drought through structured preparedness, readiness, and activation phases. Key objectives included improving existing drought management systems, fostering long-term adaptability, and raising awareness of disaster risk reduction strategies. The simulation activities were designed around specific triggers derived from forecast and monitoring indicators, ensuring timely and effective responses tailored to the local context. The preparedness phase focused on water conservation, water infrastructure repair, and food preservation, while the readiness phase emphasized livestock management, adaptive agricultural practices, and resource stockpiling. The activation phase implemented immediate interventions, including livestock relocation, water distribution, and community health monitoring. The simulation employed inclusive criteria to prioritize vulnerable groups, adhering to principles of Gender Equality and Social Inclusion (GESI) and considering low-income households and families with disabilities. This targeted approach ensured equitable participation and addressed marginalized populations' unique challenges. The simulation provided a comprehensive platform to test and refine drought anticipatory action protocols by integrating proactive measures with community engagement. The AWARE initiative strengthened community readiness, promoted sustainable agricultural practices, and improved access to forecast data, enabling informed decision-making. The exercise highlighted the importance of timely interventions and a proactive approach to disaster mitigation.
Policy action plans for young entrepreneurs to increase economic water productivity in olive and milk value chains in Morocco
(Report, 2024-12-30) Amarasinghe, Upali; Ait El Mekki, Abdelkader; Amarnath, Giriraj
This report presents suggested action plans based on stakeholder consultations on investment and institutional strategies for assisting young entrepreneurs in increasing the economic water productivity, i.e., the value or profit of water consumed in the olive and milk value chains in Morocco. Key recommendations to implement in the short-term for a road map are: • Conduct awareness campaigns and training targeting young entrepreneurs on various investment opportunities in the olive and milk value chains and how economic water productivity can be enhanced by providing advisories and services on climate smart land and water management, and agronomic practices, and marketing. • Develop national, regional, and local-scale multisector Resilience Innovation Platforms (communities of practice) to facilitate young entrepreneurs to enhance knowledge in improving the economic water productivity of the two value chains. • Accelerate the expansion of drip irrigation with modernized irrigation infrastructure to address water scarcity., a necessary and urgent action to implement to enhance the olive crop sector's water use efficiency and resilience to climate change. • Pilot test young entrepreneurs business models to form production companies with a view to enhance water productivity of the olive and milk value chain.
Proceedings of the Capacity Sharing Workshop on Integrated Water Storage Assessment in India, November 2024
(Conference Proceedings, 2024-12-30) Amarnath, Giriraj; Bhatpuria, Dhyey; Bhaduri, Tanmoy; Sikka, Alok
Atelier de lancement du tableau de bord de gouvernance intelligente de l’adaptation et d’échanges sur les applications de l’outil pour renforcer la planification de l’adaptation et l’investissement climatique au Sénégal
(Report, 2024-12-30) Direction du Changement climatique, de la Transition écologique et des Financements verts (DCCTEFV)
National launch of Climate Smart Governance (CSG) Dashboard and strengthening Multi-scale Polycentric Governance (MPG) Tool in Kenya
(Report, 2024-12-30) Alahacoon, Niranga; Amarasinghe, Upali; Amarnath, Giriraj
Kenya’s climate, influenced by topography, varies from tropical along the coast to semi-arid and arid in the interior. The country experiences bimodal rainfall patterns, with long rains from March to May and short rains from October to December. However, climate change has disrupted these patterns, increasing the prevalence of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, landslides, and cyclones. Rainfall variability has intensified, with wetter northern regions contrasting sharply with drier southern areas. This heightened variability and Kenya's reliance on rainfed agriculture underscore its vulnerability to climate hazards, which have far-reaching impacts on its economy, environment, and population. The Kenyan government has implemented strategic frameworks such as the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2015– 2030 and the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) 2018–2022 to address these challenges. Recognizing the need for robust tools to guide decision-making, Kenya has introduced the Climate Smart Governance (CSG) Dashboard and the Multiscale Polycentric Governance (MPG) Tool guide. These platforms support data-driven decision-making, project tracking, and investment planning, aligning with Kenya’s sustainable development objectives. The launch of the CSG Dashboard marked a significant milestone in Kenya’s climate resilience journey. During the event, officials from the State Department for Forestry, the National Environment Management Authority, the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, and the International Water Management Institute actively participated. In his welcome address, Dr Joshua highlighted Kenya’s strides in climate resilience and expressed confidence in the CSG Dashboard’s potential to address emerging challenges. Dr Niranga emphasized the importance of data-driven decision-making and introduced the CSG Dashboard’s modules, including Country Overview, Climate Outlook, Project Tracker, and Geo-Intelligence Tools. He demonstrated the Dashboard’s role in supporting climate mitigation and adaptation efforts through a detailed presentation. Dr Upali Amarsinghe introduced the CGIAR Research Initiative on Climate Resilience (ClimBeR) program, highlighting the Governance for Resilience (G4R) workstream, reinforcing the commitment to advancing climate resilience through innovative tools and collaborative approaches.
Building Systemic Resilience against Climate Variability and Extremes (ClimBeR) program: towards outcome monitoring in Morocco
(Report, 2024-12-30) Ait El Mekki, Abdelkader; Brouziyne, Youssef
This report presents the monitoring approaches discussed with the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture for outcome reporting of the policy research conducted under Work Package 4 of the CGIARs “Building Systemic Resilience against Climate Variability and Extremes (ClimBeR)” initiative in the country. Key approaches suggested for facilitating and monitoring outcomes towards climate resilience are: • Establishment of multi-sectoral innovation communities for resilience (Communities of practice) by providing technical expertise on water and climate systems, promoting collaboration, and sharing national, regional, and international best practices, • Development of a platform to support the dissemination of information on climate (using in particular, data from the Digital and Drought Hub and those from the Meteorology Directorate), the market, health, nutrition, and potential displacement of rural populations, in order to promote the collaborative efforts of multiple partners at local and national levels, • Using satellite data, advanced modeling, and dashboards to inform sustainable drip conversion programs, and • Promoting agricultural entrepreneurship and supporting incubation and acceleration programs for small and medium-sized enterprises working to optimize the physical, social, and economic productivity of agricultural water.
Evaluating the impact of canal restoration in Kotagala, Nuwara Eliya District, Sri Lanka
(Report, 2024-12-30) Herath, H. M. M.; Alahacoon, Niranga; Sivananthan, Piriyanka; Attoh, Emmanuel; Amarnath, Giriraj
The impact evaluation of the canal restoration project in Kotagala, Nuwara Eliya District, Sri Lanka, highlights the significant benefits of locally led adaptation measures in addressing climate risks, particularly flooding. The restoration, completed in 2023 by International Water Management Institute supported through the CGIAR initiatives on Climate Resilience “ClimBeR” ACTION grant and supported by Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, focused on rehabilitating a 2 km stretch of the canal running through the. Chrystler's Farm The initiative aimed to improve water flow, reduce flood risks, and enhance the resilience of the local community, which had faced recurring floods due to heavy rainfall, sedimentation, and waste mismanagement. The project resulted in a substantial reduction in flood vulnerability. In the year following its completion, no flood events were recorded, marking a transformative change for the community. Improved water drainage, enhanced canal capacity, and reduced sedimentation significantly mitigated the impact of heavy rains. Social and economic benefits were notable, with fewer disruptions to tea estate operations, increased school attendance, and reduced damage to homes and infrastructure. Community-led efforts also contributed to the project's success, with active participation in canal maintenance and waste management fostering a sense of ownership and accountability. Environmental gains were another critical outcome of the restoration. Water quality in the canal improved, and soil erosion was minimized due to enhanced water flow and sediment control. Awareness campaigns and monitoring initiatives effectively reduced waste dumping into the canal, promoting a healthier local ecosystem. These immediate outcomes underscore the success of the restoration in addressing key environmental and social challenges. Despite these successes, long-term sustainability remains a concern. The evaluation revealed gaps in maintenance mechanisms, financial sustainability, and consistent stakeholder collaboration. While subcommittees for maintenance and waste management were formed, ensuring their continued activity requires stronger financial and institutional support. A robust maintenance fund, supported by estate management and community contributions, is essential to preserve the project’s benefits over time. Key lessons from the locally led adaptation include the importance of community-centered approaches, integrated governance, and anticipatory actions. Active involvement of local communities, from planning to implementation, proved essential in aligning the project with local needs. Strengthening communication between stakeholders and implementing early warning systems are also critical for enhancing climate resilience. Additionally, the project successfully promoted gender-inclusive practices, ensuring equitable benefits for all community members. This canal restoration initiative serves as a model for locally led climate adaptation, showcasing the potential for collaborative, inclusive, and sustainable development. However, continuous efforts in maintenance, capacity building, and stakeholder engagement will be critical to sustaining and scaling its positive impacts.
Co-design and implementation of Index Based Flood Insurance (IBFI) in flood proofing communities of Mazabuka District, southern Zambia
(Report, 2024-12-30) Umer, Yakob; Makungwe, Mirriam; Amarnath, Giriraj; Jacobs-Mata, Inga; Banda, N.; Njoroge, M.
The Magoye River, a vital resource for communities in Zambia's Southern Province, has a history of seasonal flooding with severe consequences. During the rainy season, the river often overflows, inundating surrounding areas and causing widespread crop and infrastructure damages. Factors such as deforestation and climate change exacerbate this natural phenomenon, leading to loss of lives, displacement, and destruction of infrastructure, farmlands, and livelihoods. An innovative insurance solution has been developed to address these challenges, compensating affected communities for losses incurred during flood events. The CGIAR Initiative on Diversification in East and Southern Africa, Ukama-Ustawi (UU), identified the bundling of climate insurance as an innovative climate risk management solution for smallholder farmers in Southern and Eastern Africa. This innovation involved mapping flood-prone agricultural areas near the river, ensuring tailored support for those most vulnerable. The innovation was aimed to mitigate the financial risks associated with recurrent flooding by providing timely insurance payouts to farmers while promoting climate resilience. The International Water Management Institute (IWMI) in collaboration with Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise (ACRE Africa) and Professional Insurance Company piloted the Index Based Flood Insurance (IBFI) among smallholder farmers residing along the Magoye River, Mazabuka District, Southern Province, Zambia. IWMI has developed the IBFI concept in South Asia covering India and Bangladesh using an integrated approach of combining flood model and earth observation data to flood proofing among vulnerable populations (Amarnath et al. 2024). A similar concept was scaled out for IBFI product covering three villages at the lower Magoye Catchment and first of its kind in Zambia. To build trust and enhance resilience within affected communities, a robust flood index insurance product that is flexible, transparent, and closely aligned with ground-level realities was developed. It minimizes spatial, temporal as well as design-related basis risks, ensuring payouts accurately reflect actual losses. During the development of the IBFI product, the experts from the Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA), Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Community Development, Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) in co-designing and implementing with the pilot villages. The IBFI pilot was conducted for the 2024-2025 rainy season in the Mogoye Catchment, Southern Province, Zambia. The product targets 250 households in the Magoye Catchment of Zambia's Southern Province. Coverage focuses on flood risk, measured via in-situ gauges and satellitemonitored flood depth along the Magoye River. Insurance applies to individual pixels along the river, with each participating farmer receiving about K 1786 equivalent to about USD 64 as the sum insured. The 150-day cover period (November 1, 2024 – March 30, 2025) uses a 10-day observation period for flood events. Payouts are tiered based on flood depth percentiles: minor flooding (80th percentile trigger, 25% coverage), moderate (85th percentile, 50% coverage), major (95th percentile, 75% coverage), and catastrophic (99th percentile, 100% coverage). In summary, the IBFI pilot represents a vital step forward in addressing the twin challenges of climate change and poverty. Its success could herald a transformative approach to flood risk management, offering a lifeline to vulnerable farmers and contributing to sustainable development in the region. Through innovation and collaboration, this initiative underscores the potential of insurance-based solutions in building climate resilience and securing livelihoods.
Using machine learning tools for salinity forecasting to support irrigation management and decision-making in a polder of coastal Bangladesh
(Brief, 2024-12-30) Behera, Abhijit; Sena, Dipaka Ranjan; Matheswaran, Karthikeyan; Jampani, Mahesh; Hasib, Md. R.; Mondal, M. K.
Water-salinity dynamics and stakeholder perceptions of a polder in coastal Bangladesh: a socio-hydrological perspective
(Brief, 2024-12-30) Jampani, Mahesh; Hasib, Md. Raqubul; Mizan, Syed Adil; Md, Nesaruddin; Mondal, M. K.; Sena, Dipaka Ranjan; Alam, Rubayat; Joshi, Deepa; Matheswaran, Karthikeyan
Leveraging satellite-based evapotranspiration monitoring to unlock agricultural water use insights in the Ganges and Mekong deltas
(Brief, 2024-12-30) Puvanenthirarajah, Suvasthiga; Matheswaran, Karthikeyan; Jampani, Mahesh
Nature-based solutions for river restoration and flow management: the case of Kitwe City, Zambia
(Book Chapter, 2025-01-30) Umer, Yakob; Debele, S. E.; Mvula, C.; Amarnath, Giriraj; Chisola, M. N.; Marti-Cardona, B.
River systems worldwide are under significant anthropogenic pressures and climate-related challenges, leading to ecosystem degradation and increased flood risk. This chapter demonstrates how Nature Based Solutions (NbS) can contribute to river restoration while reducing flood risk, supporting wider sustainable goals. To this end, this chapter evaluates the effectiveness of NbS interventions in river restoration and flood risk management in the Kitwe City, Zambia. The methodology involves using a hydraulic model to simulate river flow under different NbS scenarios (retention ponds and woodland reforestation), and to compare the simulated flood depth and flow velocity in pre- and post-intervention conditions. The findings indicate that the presence of NbS significantly reduces flood risks, with retention ponds and woodlands leading to flood depth reductions ranging from 0.09 m to 0.18 m and 0.06 m to 0.11 m, respectively. Regarding flow velocities, retention ponds reduced them by an average of 0.11m/s, and woodlands, by 0.07 m/s. These results indicate that both NbS types reduce flood depth and velocity, with ponds being slightly more effective than woodland in the particular setting of the Kitwe District. The findings suggest that integrating NbS into river restoration can mitigate flood risks, improve ecosystem resilience, and contribute to long-term sustainability. These results inform risk management policies and emphasise the need for interdisciplinary collaboration to upscale NbS for maximum ecological and societal benefits.
Sri Lanka's Climate Smart Governance Dashboard: training manual
(Training Material, 2024-12-30) Alahacoon, Niranga; Amarnath, Giriraj; Sivananthan, Piriyanka
Sri Lanka’s geographical and climatic conditions expose it to significant natural disaster risks, including floods, droughts, landslides, and cyclones. These recurring hazards disrupt socio-economic stability, causing loss of life, displacement, and environmental degradation. To combat these challenges, Sri Lanka emphasizes sustainable development and disaster preparedness. The Climate-Smart Governance (CSG) Dashboard enhances Sri Lanka’s capacity to address climate challenges effectively by streamlining data, fostering collaboration, and supporting evidence-based strategies. Its user-friendly interface, robust functionalities, and global adaptability make it vital to building climate resilience and advancing national and international sustainable development. The Climate-Smart Governance (CSG) Dashboard is an innovative platform providing data on climate-related hazards, vulnerability, scenarios, and sector-specific information. Developed as part of the CGIAR initiative on Climate Resilience (ClimBeR), the CSG Dashboard is crucial in supporting nations undertaking the UNFCCC National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process. Aligned with the iterative nature of the NAP process, the CSG Dashboard enhances adaptive capacity and resilience, minimizing vulnerability to climate change impacts. The training manual aims to guide users through the platform, ensuring ease of use and a clear understanding of its functionalities.
Strengthening anticipatory action in Zambia: a practical workshop on utilizing CGIAR and Zambia Red Cross Society solutions
(Report, 2024-12-30) Jeya Raj, Renuka; Alahacoon, Niranga; Amarnath, Giriraj; Wina, W.
Zambia, a country rich in natural resources and biodiversity, is increasingly vulnerable to the escalating threat of climate-related shocks, particularly droughts and floods. These extreme weather events have far-reaching consequences, disrupting livelihoods and severely undermining food security nationwide. In this context, traditional reactive disaster response methods are inadequate, often arriving too late to prevent significant humanitarian crises. To address this, Anticipatory Action (AA) has emerged as a forward-thinking strategy that harnesses the power of scientific forecasts and early warning systems. By triggering pre-agreed, evidence-based interventions before a climate disaster unfolds, AA aims to minimize the destructive impacts of such events, protecting both lives and livelihoods. This proactive approach represents a paradigm shift in disaster management, moving from a reactive to a preventive model. Central to the success of AA in Zambia is the integration of cutting-edge tools and platforms. The CGIAR AWARE (Early Warning, Early Action, Early Finance) platform is a crucial resource, offering advanced predictive analytics and climate modeling. The Zambia Red Cross Society (ZRCS) has also developed tools designed to operationalize AA on the ground. Leveraging these resources, Zambia can significantly bolster its resilience against extreme weather events. By embedding AA into national and local disaster risk management frameworks, the country can both reduce the humanitarian toll of disasters as well as safeguard its developmental gains. This approach, however, requires concerted efforts and collaboration among the various stakeholders, including government agencies, international partners, and local communities, to ensure that the benefits of AA are fully realized.
Dynamic and scalable framework for flood early warning: Zambia case study
(Brief, 2024-01-25) Padhee, Suman Kumar; Alahacoon, Niranga; Amarnath, Giriraj
Flood forecasting and early warning systems (FFEWS) are vital for safeguarding vulnerable communities, enabling anticipatory action to mitigate livelihood and income losses before the disaster strikes. This study introduces a dynamic, and scalable framework for flood indicators in Zambia using Global Precipitation Measurement GPM-IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) satellite rainfall data, Global Forecast SystemGFS global weather forecast data, and a GIS-based basin network database (BND). The framework is designed to enhance FFEWS through the CGIAR AWARE platform, strengthening anticipatory action mechanisms. Evaluation of the GPM-IMERG data reveals a strong correlation with ground-based station observations and reliable performance metrics, confirming its suitability for real-time rainfall monitoring. To address limitations in ground data, the framework incorporates intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves across various return periods to generate flood early warning indicators. The BND ensures that flood warnings work for both individual sub-basins and their combined runoff responses. A Comparison of three historical flooding events in Zambia as documented by EM-DAT, demonstrates the reliable performance of GPM-IMERG in identifying floods. A recent flooding event in the Southern province was analysed using GPM-IMERG and GFS data, showing reasonable forecasting of sub-basin level rainfall intensity and accumulation up to 10 days in advance, with accuracy improving closer to the event. This framework aims to bolster resilience and promote proactive disaster management through the AWARE platform, with the potential scalability across Africa and Asia.

Browse

Recent Submissions