IWMI Book / Report Chapters

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Irrigation development and agricultural water management in Rwanda: a systematic review
(Book Chapter, 2025-04-13) Mabhaudhi, T.; Dirwai, Tinashe L.; Taguta, C.; Kanda, E. K.; Nhamo, L.; Cofie, Olufunke
Most African countries rely on food imports and cannot feed their populations. The most vulnerable region to chronic food insecurity is sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where agriculture is mainly rainfed and therefore threatened by climate change and variability. Irrigation is one of the main solutions for stabilizing yields and reinforcing food security, yet it is underdeveloped in most parts of Africa. However, irrigation consumes the largest amount of water than the other sectors; thus, exploring and implementing ways of producing more yield per unit volume of water is necessary. To counter food insecurity and improve agricultural water management, the African Union (AU) developed a framework for irrigation development and agricultural water management (IDAWM) to be adopted in all the member states in the continent. This framework is premised on four development pathways, namely, improved water control and watershed management in rainfed farming, farmer-led irrigation development (FLID), irrigation scheme development and modernization and the use of unconventional water for irrigation. Therefore, this review sought to assess the status, challenges, and opportunities of IDAWM in Rwanda. The systematic review adopted the PRISMA-P (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols). The results indicated that Rwanda has adopted various strategies such as terraces, contour bunds, and water harvesting to address soil erosion and improve water storage. Irrigation is practised in three ways: marshland, hillside, and small-scale irrigation technologies, which are faced with several challenges, such as land use policy and inadequate participation, which hinder progress in FLID. Inadequate private sector involvement hinders investment in the modernization of irrigation schemes in Rwanda. Inadequate sewerage and wastewater treatment infrastructure limits wastewater reuse in irrigation. The bright spots are anchored in sound and progressive agricultural policy, abundant water resources, favourable climatic and ecological conditions and a ready regional market.
Opportunities to improve water productivity in farmer-led irrigation: a case study of Ethiopia
(Book Chapter, 2025-04-13) Tegegne, Desalegn
To construct economic growth and poverty reduction, farmer-led irrigation is increasing nowadays in many African, South Asian, and Latin American countries. Smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate shocks due to rainfall variability, frequent droughts, and inadequate water resources, which threaten agricultural productivity and food security is known. Understanding the current and future crop water demand is key for improving agricultural productivity, and bringing food security, especially in arid and semi-arid areas where irrigation is needed to overwhelm shortage and rainfall variability. Water productivity (WP) is to produce more yield with less water use, increase income, improve livelihoods, and bring ecological benefits at less social and environmental costs per unit of water used. Some of the approaches for increasing WP include more yield with proper water use, changing the cropping pattern from low to high-value crops, decreasing costs related to social, health, and environmental aspects, and achieving more livelihood support such as more job opportunities, diversified nutritious food, and income for the same amount of water. Potential opportunities are vastly needed to achieve the productivity of irrigated agricultural systems around the globe through the full engagement of smallholder farmers, public-private sectors, government entities, and potential water resource management stakeholders. This chapter will briefly discuss opportunities for improving WP about farmer-led irrigation, focussing on smart utilization of water resources and agronomic practices to achieve higher yields using less water. Using the available water sources and low-cost water-lifting alternative technology options, implementing efficient irrigation water application methods, practicing deficit and supplemental irrigation techniques, and adopting climate-smart on-farm water management techniques and technologies are potential opportunities for improving WP in farmer-led irrigation areas.
A systematic review of irrigation development and agricultural water management in Mali
(Book Chapter, 2025-04-13) Mabhaudhi, T.; Dirwai, Tinashe L.; Taguta, C.; Kanda, E. K.; Nhamo, L.; Cofie, Olufunke
Rain-fed and irrigated agriculture are key to economic growth, job creation, food security, and livelihoods across Africa. Agriculture in Mali is mainly rain-fed and thus vulnerable to the country’s fluctuating climate, which undermines crop production and productivity. The PRISMA protocol and SPIDER framework were used to systematically review Mali’s irrigation development and agricultural water management. Mali invested in irrigated agriculture across scales to decouple agriculture from unreliable rainfall, but the potential for expansion still exists. The Malian government also developed several policies to create an enabling environment that promotes agricultural water management (AWM). Farmers employ various agricultural water management practices to control and conserve water and soil. In line with the African Union irrigation development and agricultural water management (AU-IDAWM) framework, there exists operationalization challenges in Mali. These challenges include weak implementation of policies by authorities and lack of awareness among farmers, to mention a few. Farmers lack access to inputs, technology, extension services and credit. The government lacks the financial capacity to rehabilitate irrigation schemes such as Office du Niger, wherein it politically allocated land to foreign large-scale investors without the involvement of the farmers and the management agency, and this may affect the sustainability of irrigated agriculture. Wastewater irrigation suffers from non-recognition, lack of support from all spheres, and risks to human health and the environment. Thus, the government must revamp policy implementation and utilize alternative financing models to rehabilitate irrigation infrastructure, such as private–public partnerships (PPPs). There is a need to minimize political interference in the allocation of agricultural land in the Office du Niger. Subsidies are needed to support farmers with technology and inputs for irrigation and AWM. Farmers, extension workers, and equipment suppliers must be trained to build their capacity. Wastewater irrigation contributes to food supply, income generation, and livelihoods in peri-urban and urban areas. Thus, this practice must be formalized and supported by policies, guidelines, regulations, standards, and technologies for on-site water treatment and safer irrigation practices.
A systematic scoping review of irrigation development and agricultural water management in South Africa
(Book Chapter, 2025-04-13) Mabhaudhi, T.; Dirwai, Tinashe L.; Taguta, C.; Kanda, E. K.; Nhamo, L.; Cofie, Olufunke
An estimated 80% of Africa’s population depends on agriculture; hence, efficient agricultural water management (AWM) is crucial for enhancing agricultural and water productivity and building climate resilience across different farming scales to ensure food security. Approximately 90% of sub-Saharan Africa’s agriculture is rain-fed, and the bulk of the farmers are classified as smallholder farmers, constituting 70% of the continent’s population. Climate change (CC) and climate variability (CV) have increasingly imposed yield penalties on Africa’s irrigated and non-irrigated farming sectors. This has put significant pressure on the African farmer to produce more on less water. As such, the African Union (AU), through the AU-Irrigation Development and Agricultural Water Management (AU-IDAWM) framework, proposed four IDAWM pathways as potential countermeasures to yield penalties. Despite inroads made to equip the African farmer with extension services, a dearth of information related to performance challenges faced in the continent’s irrigation fraternity exists. This information is vital as a feedback loop to identify opportunities, challenges, and potential investment gaps to boost irrigation development in the continent. Therefore, using a South African case study, this research sought to assess the existing knowledge, gaps, challenges, and opportunities related to irrigation development and agricultural water management. PRISMA-P protocols guided the study. The SPIDER (Sample, Phenomenon of Interest, Design, Evaluation, and Research type) framework informed the eligibility criteria, which we used to formulate the inclusion–exclusion criteria. The different AU-IDAWM exhibited varied developments in infrastructural and governance structures. The AWM practices exhibited overlaps than variances under the rain-fed, FLID, and modernisation pathways.
Scaling resource recovery and reuse (RRR) innovations in low- and middle-income countries for climate change adaptation and mitigation
(Book Chapter, 2025-04-13) Danso, G.; Cofie, Olufunke; Okem, Andrew Emmanuel; Drechsel, Pay
Wastes, including biomass and wastewater, have valuable resource recovery and reuse (RRR) potential. However, previous work has paid limited attention to the climate change adaptation and mitigation potential of RRR. This chapter reviews the linkages between climate change and business models of RRR innovations in building sustainable food systems. The review demonstrates that RRR can help societies adapt to climate change mitigation strategies by providing an additional value and sustainable source of nutrients—food, water, and energy. Water reuse as a mitigation strategy has demonstrated resource recovery more than technical challenges. Engineered but simple treatment systems with great cost-effectiveness and higher change of cost recovery, if integrated into an RRR concept, can help mitigate climate change. Effective adaptive measures require nature-based solutions to treat wastewater. The International Water Management Institute (IWMI) documented innovative business models with a focus on circular economy principles and sustainable food systems and has the potential to mitigate climate change impacts. Policies on reducing GHG emissions and achieving a more circular economy with wastewater use options that can mitigate negative climate change impacts are discussed in this chapter.
Water productivity in South Asia: spatial and temporal variations
(Book Chapter, 2025-04-13) Amarasinghe, Upali; Sikka, Alok; Perera, Madhusha; Alahacoon, Niranga
This chapter assesses the variations and options for improving water productivity to address water risks and insecurity in South Asian countries. The water productivity indicators of focus are physical water productivity (PWP)—the production per unit of water use, and economic water productivity (EWP), the value of production per unit of water use. A significant potential exists to increase PWP in many South Asian countries and regions with no water scarcity. These regions require increased access to water. However, increasing EWP should take precedence under water-scarce conditions. The latter may require reducing water-intensive crop areas and diversifying to less water-intensive crops.
The crop–livestock–soil nutrient–water nexus in mixed farming system: a research gap in West Africa Region
(Book Chapter, 2025-04-13) Igbadun, H. E.; Ojeleye, O. A.; Mabhaudhi, T.; Cofie, Olufunke
Mixed farming systems are a sustainable closed-loop model for crop–livestock systems, focusing on structure, practices, logic, social, cultural, economic, climatic, and institutional capital interactions. However, literature on crop–livestock–soil–water interactions is scarce, with few separating crop and livestock water productivity in mixed systems. Crop–livestock water productivity is influenced by land management, biophysical, and socioeconomic factors. Integrating thinking in space and time can help understand these interrelationships and analyse their influence on crop–livestock production. Improving livestock water productivity (LWP) is crucial due to rising consumer demand, competition for global freshwater, and water rivalry. Strategies include promoting livestock production, managing grazing, water, livestock marketing, animal health, and minimizing environmental effects.
Sustainable intensification of mixed farming system in West Africa: concepts, practices, and challenges
(Book Chapter, 2025-04-13) Igbadun, H. E.; Ojeleye, O. A.; Mabhaudhi, T.; Cofie, Olufunke
Sustainable intensification (SI) is a system of production that increases output without causing significant environmental damage. It focusses on enhancing agricultural land production while managing its environmental impact. Evaluation frameworks have evolved to include non-environmental aspects, such as social concerns, economics, and the human condition. Agricultural sustainability assessment now uses indicator frameworks, which are structured into five domains: productivity, economic, environment, the human condition, and social domains. Mixed farming systems (MFS) is an approach to sustainable agriculture where farmers produce crops and animals in the same location under the same ownership. MFS provides enough food for consumers and income for farmers while ensuring soil fertility, biodiversity, and pest control. Several characterizations and typologies of MFS in West Africa have been identified, but the level of development varies due to farmers’ preferences. Despite the benefits of MFS, socio-economic factors, such as skills and competencies, the role of the agricultural knowledge and innovation system, the economy, and the policy environment, pose major challenges and obstacles to its growth in West Africa.
Management and agricultural water productivity improvement in India and the Ganges Basin
(Book Chapter, 2025-04-13) Sharma, Bharat; Sikka, Alok; Lautze, Jonathan; Mabhaudhi, T.
The fast transition of India from a water-stressed to a water-scarce country has provided additional impetus for the search for interventions and decision support systems (DSSs) for solutions to problems arising from a mismatch between demand and supply and competing demands of economic and environmental sectors. Agriculture is the largest user of freshwater and increasing water productivity in agriculture is a national challenge requiring urgent attention. Globally, DSSs have gained immense popularity in various domains and, more recently, in agriculture and water resources management but are still limited in developing countries like India. This chapter presents a comprehensive compilation and stocktake of the DSSs developed at various scales in India and specific to the Ganges Basin, aimed at serving as a foundation for future work in this direction. After the criteria-based screening of the literature and reports, each selected DSS was analysed in the context of the aspects covered, key criteria, and the parameters such as relevance, applicability, focus, and scale of application. To reinforce the recommendations, KIIs were held with selected experts and stakeholders. A matrix approach was employed to compile and review the DSS with broader segregation under (i) crop and farm-based decision support systems, (ii) DSS based on artificial intelligence, enhanced machine learning, fuzzy multi-criteria decision making, and knowledge systems, (iii) DSS for real-time operation of micro-irrigation systems, (iv) DSS for management of tanks and reservoirs for water-deficit regions, and (v) DSS for improving water productivity under canal commands and conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources. The selected DSSs were then analysed for focus, key findings, relevance, applicability, and scale of application of the DSS.
Nature-based solutions for river restoration and flow management: the case of Kitwe City, Zambia
(Book Chapter, 2025-01-30) Umer, Yakob; Debele, S. E.; Mvula, C.; Amarnath, Giriraj; Chisola, M. N.; Marti-Cardona, B.
River systems worldwide are under significant anthropogenic pressures and climate-related challenges, leading to ecosystem degradation and increased flood risk. This chapter demonstrates how Nature Based Solutions (NbS) can contribute to river restoration while reducing flood risk, supporting wider sustainable goals. To this end, this chapter evaluates the effectiveness of NbS interventions in river restoration and flood risk management in the Kitwe City, Zambia. The methodology involves using a hydraulic model to simulate river flow under different NbS scenarios (retention ponds and woodland reforestation), and to compare the simulated flood depth and flow velocity in pre- and post-intervention conditions. The findings indicate that the presence of NbS significantly reduces flood risks, with retention ponds and woodlands leading to flood depth reductions ranging from 0.09 m to 0.18 m and 0.06 m to 0.11 m, respectively. Regarding flow velocities, retention ponds reduced them by an average of 0.11m/s, and woodlands, by 0.07 m/s. These results indicate that both NbS types reduce flood depth and velocity, with ponds being slightly more effective than woodland in the particular setting of the Kitwe District. The findings suggest that integrating NbS into river restoration can mitigate flood risks, improve ecosystem resilience, and contribute to long-term sustainability. These results inform risk management policies and emphasise the need for interdisciplinary collaboration to upscale NbS for maximum ecological and societal benefits.
Sustainable Development Goal 6: ensuring the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
(Book Chapter, 2024-04-19) van Koppen, Barbara
Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG6) seeks to ‘ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all’, and addresses the pathways to health, hygiene and ending hunger. This chapter highlights how reliable, weather-proof access to water is key for drinking, domestic uses, hygiene, and food preparation and processing from household to industrial scales. Further, agricultural water management and irrigation improve crop yields and can extend cropping into the ‘hunger’ season, also overcoming unexpected droughts. Moreover, water security stimulates investments in higher-value seeds and other inputs. Livestock, fisheries and aquaculture also depend on water availability. These pathways contribute to higher dietary diversity of micro-nutrient and protein-rich vegetables, meat, eggs, and other food for own consumption or sale. Water availability for multiple uses at homesteads is particularly effective for ending child malnutrition. However, food systems also risk polluting water. Therefore, SDG6 also envisages water quality control and resource recovery.
Links between water resources and infrastructure in water tenure
(Book Chapter, 2024-11-28) van Koppen, Barbara
Water tenure: integrity at the interface between statutory and customary law in Africa
(Book Chapter, 2024-11-28) Schreiner, B.; van Koppen, Barbara
Irrigation, collective action, and property rights
(Brief, 2004) Vermillion, Douglas L.
Governments are now shifting their role from direct management of irrigation systems to regulation of the water sector, provision of support services to water user associations, and capacity building among water user associations and irrigation service providers.... International experience suggests that successful irrigation sector reform programs establish both a policy working group and a national secretariat that help to guide and coordinate the planning and implementation of the reform process. The process should include: strategic, participatory planning; research and stakeholder consultations; mobilization of political support; design and adoption of an appropriate policy, legal, institutional, and regulatory framework; strategy to coordinate lending and technical assistance; public awareness campaigns; and monitoring, evaluations, and course corrections. -- from Text.
Protecting vulnerable communities: a case study of index-based flood insurance in India, powered by flood modeling and remotely sensed rainfall
(Book Chapter, 2025-01) Amarnath, Giriraj; Ghosh, Surajit; Alahacoon, Niranga; Sikka, Alok; Brahmanand, P. S.
The poor across the world is vulnerable to floods and drought disasters, which have a detrimental effect on the lives and livelihoods of the poor. Weather-based index insurance is one of the ways of dealing with these disasters. Protecting against floods and providing risk cover against losses due to floods has been a major area of concern for any government. Risk transfer through insurance is an important component in managing agricultural risks from extreme flood events. The study developed the first of its kind of design and implementation of an index-based flood insurance (IBFI) product with the advanced use of satellite data and flood models to estimate crop losses due to floods. IBFI insurance product uses two different data elements, and the first one is based on the flood model using HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS that uses inputs from NASA GPM bias-corrected satellite rainfall estimates, observed water level and discharge data, river characteristics, and digital elevation model to generate flood depth and flood duration to develop predetermined thresholds based on the historical flood events between 1991 and 2015 and the second IBFI product uses only satellite data from NASA MODIS Terra and Aqua satellite data and the Copernicus Sentinel-1 SAR data to generate flood depth and flood duration to develop predetermined thresholds based on the historical flood events and economic losses. More than 7000 farming households in Bihar (India) and northern Bangladesh have signed up for a pilot IBFI scheme, which went live in 2017. The participating farmers have received insurance compensation for crop losses of over $US160,000. In addition to the insurance product implementation, the research evaluated the farming willingness to pay, developing business models for scaling, social equity, and economic benefits of derisk disasters. IBFI initiative promotes a closer linkage between risk transfer and risk reduction that could make this a more sustainable and robust financial instrument for flood-affected communities and reduce the burden of postdisaster relief funds for the government. In summary, index insurance using open-access satellite imagery is a win-win opportunity as it brings down the data development cost, lower insurance premiums, quick settlement, and greater transparency among various users.
Enhancing transboundary flood forecasting for early warnings in the Gash River Basin
(Book Chapter, 2025-01) Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Gismalla, Y.; Mohammed, Y.; Sharma, Bharat R.; Smakhtin, Vladimir
Historically, flooding is the most common environmental hazard worldwide, and also one of the most threatening to communities. Hydrological modeling of large river catchments has become a challenging task for water resources engineers due to the complexity of collecting and handling both spatial and nonspatial data, such as rainfall, gauge-discharge data, and topographic and hydraulic parameters. The Gash is a transboundary river which originates from the Eritrean Highlands and Ethiopian Plateau and ends up in Sudan. It is unique in its discharge flows with torrential rain between Jul. and Oct. while being dry for the rest of the year. Despite this characteristic, the river is the main source of water for domestic and agricultural use in Kassala City, Sudan. In this chapter we briefly present the potential application of satellite-based rainfall estimates and develop a flood forecasting model for the Gash River Basin, Sudan, through a distributed modeling approach using remote sensing data. The approach includes rainfall-runoff modeling, hydrodynamic flow routing, and calibration and validation of the model with field discharge data. The study area is divided into 25 subbasins to improve model accuracy. To generate relevant parameters for modeling, GlobCover land cover data (1000 m), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) at 90 m, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) soil grid data using freely available datasets were used for the Gash River in Eastern Sudan. Based on several studies in Eastern Africa on the choice of satellite-based rainfall estimates, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was used to represent the actual rainfall pattern and intensity of the basin. Model simulations were carried out using the HEC-HMS model. From 6 years (2007–12) of available discharge data for five stations, the period 2008–11 was considered for calibration with 2008 as the warming-up period, and data from 2007 and 2012 were used for validation. The model was tested during the 2013 floods at real-time, 3-h intervals. The accuracy of the estimated peak flood discharge and lag time was found to be good with reference to field observation data. Flood forecasting lead time is increased by 12 h compared to conventional methods of forecasting.
Development of an operational flood early warning system for Black Volta River Basin, West Africa
(Book Chapter, 2025-01) Padhee, Suman Kumar; Amarnath, Giriraj; Umer, Yakob
Floods are the most frequent disaster causing global economic losses in billions and pose a significant threat to modern civilization. The UNDRR strongly advocates for flood early warning system (FEWS) with scientific rationale for all nations by 2027, acknowledging that developing countries face financial and human resource challenges in adopting advanced FEWS infrastructure. This study is focused on the development of a FEWS for the Black Volta Basin (BVB) in West Africa with free data resources and open-source modeling infrastructure. It is based on the approach of integrating the Deltares wflow_sbm hydrologic model and the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model for forecasting flood and inundation maps. The wflow_sbm is calibrated (1990–1997, NSE value = 0.71) and validated (1998–2007, NSE value = 0.72) by using station-based gridded rainfall from the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) and discharge time series from Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) portals. Based on the calibrated parameters, wflow_sbm model is utilized to produce hydrograph for the years 2001–2022 with raw and bias-corrected GPM-IMERG rainfall inputs, where the discharge with the latter is found to outperform that from the former. The peak flood event from the produced hydrograph by the wflow model is fed into a 2D hydraulic model, LISFLOOD-FP model, to simulate the flood extent. Evaluation of modeled inundation modeling by comparing with satellite inundation observation during flood 2022 case resulted in an acceptable range (F = 0.527). Hydrograph for the flood 2022 case is overlapped with hydrographs from GEFSv12 weather forecast inputs in 1 day, 2 days, and 3 days. It is found that the absolute error percentage for 1 day throughout most of the season is forecasted under 10% including the peak of the flood. Forecasts lead time of 2 and 3 days are observed to have degraded accuracy as compared to 1-day forecasts due to higher uncertainties. Identification of the onset of hydrograph inclination is also found to underperform by GEFSv12 inputs and possible causes are discussed. The aim of this work is to promote FEWS with limited resources in African river basins, considering the problem of data scarcity.
Water for sustainable development: examining the water–energy–food–society nexus (SDG 17)
(Book Chapter, 2024-09-06) Pavelic, Paul; Magombeyi, Manuel; Schmitter, Petra; Jacobs-Mata, Inga
SDG 17 underscores the pivotal and interconnected role of water, including its energy implications, in addressing challenges related to human well-being and sustainable development. Solar water pumps (SWPs) offer an important technological innovation exemplifying this water–energy–food–society nexus. As a comparatively new and eco-friendly approach to irrigation, SWPs have the potential to substantially benefit millions of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). With costs for solar products steadily reducing, the small-scale SWP market is expected to grow in sales and expand into new territories. Overall, the region’s groundwater resources are known to be greatly underutilized and hence enable greater SWP adoption. This study assesses the possible risks to groundwater resources from SWP expansion to the year 2030. The current market environment is extremely heterogeneous across regions and countries. It is conservatively estimated that up to 10,000 units are sold each year, with the strongest markets found in East Africa. Around 100,000 SWP units are estimated to be in operation. For projected rates of annual growth spanning from 6% to 18%, along with intentionally high estimates of groundwater pumping, the upper limit on the quantity of available groundwater pumped by small SWP development to 2030 would vary from 0.4% to 0.6% at the SSA scale. Values in the regions vary from a low of <0.1% for Central Africa through to a high of 1.6%–2.1% for Southern Africa. Specific countries may generally support additional SWPs ranging from tens of thousands up to millions of units without negatively impacting on groundwater availability. Countries characterized by greater recharge and lower current groundwater use can accommodate greater numbers of SWP systems. Short-term threats to the availability of groundwater are assessed to be low over the short and medium terms. Over the long term, risks to groundwater may be greater than evaluated in this study should SWP growth rates exceed the projected range or if improvements in technology allow for stronger, small-capacity pumps to flood the market. To address long-term groundwater management challenges, key action areas have been defined that recognize the diverse conditions across the regions.
Intra-African trade in virtual water: Trends and drivers
(Book Chapter, 2024-08-29) Matchaya, Greenwell; Odjo, Sunday; Collins, Julia
Increasing intra-African trade is expected to have a wide range of benefits, including contributing to increased economic growth, employment, and food security. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), launched in 2021, will have potentially significant impacts on economic output and incomes when fully implemented. A recent study suggests that AfCFTA implementation will drive substantial employment growth, generating more than 7 million new jobs in manufacturing, public services, trade, and other services (World Bank 2020). Bouët, Laborde, and Traoré (2022) estimate that an ambitious implementation of the AfCFTA, which eliminates tariffs and significantly reduces nontariff measures, would increase Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.2 percent compared to baseline trends in the absence of the AfCFTA by 2035. Increased intra-African trade in agriculture could also contribute significantly to improving food security and nutrition, including by increasing dietary diversity, promoting food price stability, and boosting the availability of key micronutrients (Bonuedi, Kamasa, and Opeku 2020; Makochekanwa and Matchaya 2019; Odjo and Badiane 2018; Olivetti et al. 2023). A further potential benefit of increased intra-African trade is its contribution to environmental sustainability and efficient use of scarce natural resources. The impacts of trade on the environment are complex. Although trade expends resources and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, it could also contribute to sustainable resource use if it allows countries to specialize in production patterns according to their resource endowments and comparative advantage (Odjo, Traoré, and Zaki 2023). In the context of climate variability and water scarcity, trade could potentially help to minimize the negative impacts by moving commodities from areas with high water availability to water-scarce areas (Matchaya, Garcia, and Traoré 2023). This chapter reviews overall trends in intra-African agricultural trade and, to assess the contribution of this trade to sustainability, takes a close look at its potential to address issues of water scarcity and contribute to efficient use of water resources. The chapter examines intra African agricultural trade in virtual water—that is, the water content embedded in trade flows of agricultural products. Trade is most commonly measured in value terms, but the monetary value of a product does not always reflect the resources used to produce it. Trade flows expressed as virtual water trade (VWT) reflect both the specific water requirements of different crops and the varying crop yields obtained in different countries. Examining intra-African trade in virtual water terms and identifying the impact of countries’ resource endowments and water productivity levels on VWT helps us to assess the contribution of intra-African trade to addressing water stress and scarcity in African countries and contributing to more efficient water use.
Forecasting future global agricultural water demand: current projections and future challenges
(Book Chapter, 2024-06-10) Amarasinghe, Upali A.; Amarnath, Giriraj; Sikka, Alok
Population and economic growth, urbanization, and lifestyle changes are key drivers of water demand estimation. Climatic change and risks add another dimension to the calculus. However, unreliable baseline information and future uncertainties of many drivers are barriers to accurate demand projections, which are essential for future planning. This chapter re-looks at the current global agricultural water demand estimations and challenges for making reliable future projections, which are crucial for two reasons. First is the large share of the water withdrawals and the population that depend on direct and indirect livelihoods at present in the agricultural sector in developing countries. Second, the emerging climatic risks with variable temperatures and rainfall frequently affect agriculture production globally. Because of interlinkages with international trade, accurate global water and food demand productions will be critical for planning food, water, and nutritional security, national climate adaptation actions, and achieving sustainable development targets in many developing countries.

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