CGIAR Policy Innovations science program

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/163090

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Links between protein-source diversity, household behavior, and protein consumption inadequacy in the Indian rural semi-arid tropics
(Journal Article, 2025-02-04) Kumar, Shalander; Pramanik, Soumitra; Reardon, Thomas; Ellanki, Revathi
Our study analyzes the determinants, sources, and levels of protein consumption among 785 households across nine districts in six Indian states in the semi-arid tropics. We found that 80% of these households consumed less protein than recommended and relied on cereals for 60–75% of their protein intake. Notably, even when protein-rich foods are accessible to households, they still consume them insufficiently. We found that their protein intake deficiency is driven by a lack of diversity of protein sources (in particular, legumes, millets, and livestock), as well as by a dearth of women's education and role in household decision-making and low incomes and assets. We advocate for initiatives to raise nutrition awareness, empower women, and adopt a nutrition-centric farming approach.
Mapping of National Climate Change Policies and Stakeholders in Cambodia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam
(Report, 2025-01) Mirzabaev, Alisher; Gonzalez, Tobiah; Pajadan, Karen; Dohrmann, Christian; Sander, Bjoern Ole
This report is a compilation of the national policies, GHG emission reduction targets, identification of key stakeholders and of their roles, and decision-making structures governing climate change mitigation under the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in Cambodia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam.
Governing informality: Drivers of service provision in Nigeria's food wholesale markets
(Preprint, 2025-04-29) Resnick, Danielle; Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.; Chugh, Aditi
How does governance affect service provision in Nigeria's wholesale food markets? Sufficient services, such as water, waste collection, and toilet access, are essential for enhancing the safety of healthy and nutritious foods, such as vegetables and fish, and improving the welfare of those who depend on informal trade for their livelihoods. However, these are often substandard in many informal markets, exposing traders and consumers who rely on such markets to higher levels of foodborne hazards and undermining the efficacy of other food safety interventions. Using data from 299 wholesale markets across seven states and the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria, this paper examines how four governance mechanisms-incentives, information, authority, and capacity-are associated with five services: waste collection, market toilet access, water provision, electricity, and security. We find that having an elected, rather than appointed, market chairperson positively influences waste collection and provision of security. By contrast, larger utility investments, such as water and electricity, are less influenced by governance structures within the markets. Markets located in local government areas (LGAs) under appointed rather than elected governments are associated with worse performance across all services, demonstrating that efforts to address market service delivery need to be embedded in a holistic understanding of multi-level governance dynamics. The findings emphasize that improving food safety and traders' welfare via better service delivery requires empowering stakeholders in informal market governance who not only hold the authority to deliver a diverse set of services but also possess the political incentives to do so.
Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04) Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are national economy and population of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to PNG’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?
Economic and welfare implications of the reduction of US foreign assistance in Malawi
(Brief, 2025-04-15) Cockx, Lara; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Jamali, Andrew; Nagoli, Joseph; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
For over a decade, the US has consistently ranked as either the largest or second-largest donor to Malawi. Annual foreign assistance disbursements have averaged over $360 million between 2020 and 2023. In January 2025 the US government suspended all US-funded foreign aid programs. As of April 2025, the available information suggests that funding for many of these programs in Malawi has been withdrawn, resulting in an estimated decline in US foreign assistance to Malawi of around 59% for 2025. As a result, Malawi faces a potential decline in foreign exchange inflows of around $177 million in 2025, a loss equivalent to approximately 6.3% of the annual merchandise import bill. With Malawi’s economy currently highly vulnerable, lacking the buffers needed to absorb shocks, the eco nomic and welfare implications of these recent events are concerning. The suspensions may lead to an economic contraction from reduced activities by US implementing partners, immediate pressure on the exchange rate (endangering the affordability or availability of critical imports) and declining productivity in key sectors such as agriculture. Deteriorating health and education outcomes could further affect the productivity of workers in the longer run. In this policy note we combine qualitative and quantitative information gathered in-country with modeled results of the possible economywide impacts of the reduction of US foreign assistance on key economic and welfare indicators over the next six years. We also discuss policy options that could help mitigate some of the adverse impacts.
Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04-11) Mukashov, Askar; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Uganda’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources: 1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and 2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Uganda economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather. The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment. The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Uganda. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors. The results suggest that domestic production volatility is the primary risk factor affecting GDP and poverty in Uganda, whereas world markets and domestic risks are equally important for household consumption and undernourishment. Individually, the most critical risk factors identified include production volatility in root crops, volatility in foreign capital flows, and volatility in fishery production, with the latter being particularly significant for rural low-income households. Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.
Ghana: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04-11) Mukashov, Askar; Pauw, Karl; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Ghana’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources: 1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and 2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Ghanaian economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather. The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment. The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Ghana. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors. The results suggest that Ghana’s trade-oriented economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with fluctuations in world prices of key exports—particularly energy and metals—significantly influencing eco nomic activity and the country’s ability to finance imports. Poverty and undernourishment risks present a more complex picture, with a significant difference between urban and rural risk factors. Rural households, which are generally poorer than urban households and constitute the majority of the poor and undernourished population, are more exposed to domestic production volatility factors. Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.
The unmet financial needs of intermediary firms within agri-food value chains in Uganda and Bangladesh
(Journal Article, 2025-04) Adong, Annet; Ambler, Kate; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; de Brauw, Alan; Herskowitz, Sylvan; Islam, A.H.M. Saiful; Wagner, Julia
JEL Codes: L14, L81, O13, Q13
Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges
(Working Paper, 2025-03-18) Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
This study analyzes the past performance and future opportunities and challenges of Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS). The study measures the current size and structure of AFS and its historical contribution to economic growth and transformation through a data-driven exercise. A forward-looking economywide model is used to assess the effectiveness of future AFS growth (led by agricultural productivity gains in different value chains) in promoting multiple development outcomes. The findings of the study indicate that AFS transformation is an important part of Tajikistan’s economic transformation and structural change. Because of lower growth contributions from AFS’s off-farm components as well as fewer farm workers moving from primary agriculture to off-farm activities within AFS, Tajikistan’s AFS did not grow as quickly as the broader economy. Expanding off-farm activities to boost on-farm productivity growth remains a challenge for sustainable transformation of Tajikistan’s AFS. Using an economywide model, we find that there is no single value chain group that would most effectively achieve all desired development outcomes including broad economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets. Livestock value chains, however, have the most potential to contribute to multiple development outcomes, particularly to dietary improvement, and these value chains also performed impressively during the study period. Moreover, most cattle and ruminants are owned by household farms, and their growth could contribute to broader agricultural transformation. The maize value chain also ranks high in the model-based comparison, but it seems to only modestly contribute to job creation and diet quality and had performed disappointingly during the study period. While growth in livestock and maize value chains face a series of challenges and constraints, promoting them together seems to offer an effective way to broadly achieve important development outcomes.
Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea
(Brief, 2025-03) Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D.
In this paper we present a brief summary of recent historical climate of Papua New Guinea (PNG), finding that rainfall has been increasing greatly compared to pre-1995 levels, but that temperature has only been rising at a moderate rate. We then examine the 5 climate models used in this study from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) / ISIMIP / CMIP3b, discovering one – IPSL – which best reflects the climate trends noted in PNG since 1995. The climate model projections show that temperature changes in PNG are expected to be less than most other places in the world and precipitation changes in PNG are projected to be higher than most other places in the world. Despite noting that IPSL seems to best represent climate changes observed thus far, we use all 5 climate models in the DSSAT crop model for taro, investigating how each climate model will lead to changes in taro yields at each half-degree pixel. In the aggregate, we find that the IPSL model leads to the greatest projected reduction in taro yield at -6.4% for the nation, with Southern region projected to have greater than 10% yield reduction for taro. Across the 5 climate models, the median across model results suggest only a 1.6% yield reduction, while the most optimistic model projects a 4.4% gain. Because of uncertainty across climate models and different impacts across regions, as well as potentially increasing climate variability which would lead to more extreme events including droughts and floods, we recommend developing a suite of options to help farmers navigate future climate uncertainty. For example, developing and testing crop varieties that would offer better yields whether the future is wetter or drier, as well as varieties that are less sensitive to temperature extremes. These could include new varieties of taro but might also include alternative crops and farming techniques designed to protect the plants during ad-verse climate events.
Potential decarbonization for balancing local and non-local perishable food supply in megacities
(Journal Article, 2025-06) Lin, Xintao; Qian, Jianping; Chen, Jian; Yu, Qiangyi; You, Liangzhi; Chen, Qian; Li, Jiali; Xiao, Pengnan; Jiang, Jingyi
Ensuring urban food security while reducing carbon emissions from food systems is a key challenge. Food localization can reduce transport emissions; however, its role in agricultural production emissions reductions is unclear. Here, we explored the effects of localization of seven perishables, incorporating emissions from production and cold-chain logistics, in Beijing and Shanghai, China; determined decarbonization under different scenarios by increasing or decreasing the localization, with or without constrains, of each food category (balancing strategy). The results show that every 1% increase in the localization of vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products decreased 2020 emissions by 0.4–1.9 tCO2e, but for beef and lamb, it increased emissions by 0.2–2.9 tCO2e. Localization decreased cold-chain emission shares for all foods. The balancing strategy with constraints reduced emissions by 0.76 MtCO2e (5%) and 0.44 MtCO2e (2%) in 2020 in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively. Utilizing urban agriculture at all costs (i.e., without constraints) further reduced emissions by a factor of 3–4. Over 90% of Beijing’s emissions added by 2035 under the business-as-usual scenario were projected to be offset by the strategy. In Shanghai, the strategy could reduce emissions by an additional 0.44 MtCO2e. The results indicate that expanding imports of carbon-intensive ruminant meat to replace local production and reallocating urban resources to vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products could lead to more sustainable food supplies in megacities. Further development of cold-chain logistics is expected to reduce emissions in synergy with the balancing strategy. Our results could help inform better food system planning in megacities.
A band selection method for consumer-grade camera modification for UAV-based rapeseed growth monitoring
(Journal Article, 2025-03) Wang, Chufeng; Zhang, Jian; Wu, Hao; Liu, Bin; Wang, Botao; You, Yunhao; Tan, Zuojun; Xie, Jing; You, Liangzhi; Zhang, Junqiang; Wen, Ping
Near-infrared (NIR) modification of low-cost cameras is considered an important method to acquire high-resolution NIR images on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform. However, few studies have examined filter selection methods to modify consumer-grade cameras for UAV-based agricultural crop monitoring. This study addresses a key challenge: how to balance imaging quality with spectral sensitivity when selecting filters for the modification of consumer-grade cameras. To this end, the normalized difference spectral index (NDSI) and the ratio spectral index (RSI) formulations were used to calculate the spectral indices (SIs) from all possible combinations of any two center wavelengths in UAV hyperspectral data. The contour maps of the coefficient of determination (R2) between the SIs and ground-measured rapeseed LAI were then computed to automatically generate the broadband combinations with optimized center wavelengths and effective bandwidths for selecting filters on camera modification. Results showed that a consumer-grade camera (Nikon D7000) modified by the selected filters had performance comparable with a multispectral camera (RedEdge Micasense 3), but slightly worse than a research-grade hyperspectral camera (Nano-Hyperspec®) in terms of SIs for LAI estimation. In addition, the high-resolution images from the modified camera were processed to obtain accurate crop plant height information. The SIs coupled with plant height from the modified camera (rRMSE = 18.1 % for field 1 and 14.3 % for field 2) was found to perform similar to, and in some cases even better than, those from the research-grade multispectral (rRMSE = 17.9 % and 16.7 % for the respective fields) and hyperspectral (rRMSE = 18.8 % for field 1) cameras for UAV-based LAI estimation. The findings from this study indicate that the proposed camera modification method is feasible and adaptable to agricultural crop monitoring. Thus, appropriately modified consumer-grade cameras can be a cost-effective replacement for research-grade sensors to rapidly and accurately assess crop growth status.
Global analysis reveals persistent shortfalls and regional differences in availability of foods needed for health
(Journal Article, 2025-03) Costlow, Leah; Herforth, Anna; Sulser, Timothy B.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Masters, William A.
Sufficient food is available in the world for all people to consume sufficient calories, but not healthy diets. This study traces historical and projected changes in global food systems toward alignment with the new Healthy Diet Basket (HDB) used by UN agencies and the World Bank to monitor the cost and affordability of healthy diets worldwide. Using the HDB as a standard to measure adequacy of national, regional and global supply-demand balances, we find substantial but inconsistent progress toward closer alignment with dietary guidelines, with large global shortfalls in fruits, vegetables, and legumes, nuts, and seeds, and large disparities among regions in use of animal source foods. Projections show that additional investments aimed at reducing chronic hunger would modestly accelerate improvements in adequacy where shortfalls are greatest, revealing the need for complementary investments to increase access to under-consumed food groups especially in low-income countries.
Strategic modeling for future agriculture in Asia
(Report, 2025) Cenacchi, Nicola; Sulser, Timothy B.
This APO report pinpoints the declining agricultural productivity situation in APO economies since 2019 and explores how key measures could accelerate progress achieving food security and mitigating undernourishment by improving calorie availability per person. Key challenges include slowed agricultural productivity, climate change, land degradation, insufficient R&D investment, water scarcity, and inefficiencies in markets. The report examines measures such as policy interventions and investments in R&D, irrigation, and water use efficiency to enhance productivity, food security, and sustainable resource use. Such measures could accelerate progress toward achieving food security and mitigating undernourishment by improving calorie availability per person.
Agrifood value chains in India: A state-level analysis using a social accounting matrix
(Working Paper, 2025-01-27) Pal, Barun Deb; Thurlow, James; Pauw, Karl; Diao, Xinshen; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh
This study describes disparities in per capita income, in the structure of the economy, and in agrifood systems (AFS) across states in India. We use the gross value added (GVA) obtained from state-specific agrifood value chains (AVCs) to describe the size and structure of the AFS in each state of India. This study also presents the size of employment and variability in labor productivity within the AFS across states. A special focus is given to female and youth employment in the state specific AVCs. The 2017/18 state-level social accounting matrix (SAM) for India is the primary data source for estimating statewise GVA from the AFS. Periodic Labor Force Survey data are used to estimate the size of AFS employment. Our results reveal that the bottom half of the Indian population has an average per capita income of US$1,019, 2.5 times lower than that of the top half. India’s AFS is valued at $756 billion, or 31 percent of its GVA. Primary agriculture comprises 59 percent of the AFS, and off-farm activities the rest. The share of off-farm activities in the AFS rises moving from lower-income states to higher-income states, corroborating the theory of structural transformation. The national average share of female workers in total employment is 23 percent and the majority of women who do work are engaged in primary agriculture. The share of women employed in the primary agriculture sector does not change between low- and high-income states in India. In contrast, the share of youth in primary agriculture declines between lower- and higher-income states. Since state governments in India are empowered to design their own policy and development strategies, this study provides an important policy insight to both the federal (central) and state governments.
Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change
(Journal Article, 2025-03) Murgatroyd, Anna; Thomas, Timothy S.; Koo, Jawoo; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Hall, Jim
Historically Ethiopia's food security has been sensitive to climatic variability, but changes in future weather and climate could lead to overall reductions and increased variability in agricultural production, without further adaptation. We present an integrated modelling assessment framework which combines climate, crop, and hydrological modelling to quantify future risks to Ethiopia's food security. We explore the impacts of 2°C and higher climate change scenarios on water availability and crop yields and simulate how future climate shocks may impact Ethiopia's food. We consider three adaptations to agricultural management practices (improved seed varieties, increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and supplementary irrigation) and quantify their effectiveness in enhancing the resilience of Ethiopia's food system to climate and hydrological change by 2050. Results show that, without policy intervention, climate change creates a risk of declining Meher season crop yields across Ethiopia. Under the worst climate change scenario, teff (−12.0%), barley (−6.7%), and wheat (−4.4%) are projected to have the largest decline in average yields, whilst maize (−0.1%) and sorghum (+0.9%) yields are less impacted thanks to more favourable growing conditions. However, the results also indicate that the adaptation options have a bigger beneficial effect than the climate impact. Of the policies evaluated, improved seeds have a relatively greater effect than increased fertilizer use. Supplementary irrigation could help to mitigate increases in crop water requirements under warmer climate conditions and is most effective in drought prone basins and for drought-vulnerable crops. Overall, the results show that locally relevant agricultural policies are necessary to build Ethiopia's food system resilience to climate and hydrological change by the mid-century.
Policy Innovations Program: Full design document
(Report, 2024-11-15) CGIAR Policy Innovations Science Program

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