CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/128444

Part of the CGIAR Action Area on Systems Transformation

https://www.cgiar.org/initiative/fragility-conflict-and-migration

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Local solutions for transformative development and sustainable futures
(Blog, 2025-04-24) Gadu, Siyaxola; Maviza, Gracsious; Maphosa, Mandlenkosi
Members of the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Team in Southern Africa attended the 2025 NUST-WFP National Symposium in Zimbabwe, themed “Building Resilient Communities for Sustainable Futures.”. The symposium brought together officials from various government ministries, academia, development partners, and civil society organisations.
Implications of climate crisis in Southern Africa
(Book Chapter, 2025-04-11) Maviza, Gracsious; Nzima, Divane; Gadu, Ernest Siyaxola; Ndlovu, Ntobeko
This chapter discusses climate crisis within the framework of climate capitalism. Contrary to the conventional understanding of climate from an anthropocentric perspective, the discussion here emphasises fairness, equity, and inclusivity in crafting solutions that recognise the role of the history of colonialism and imperialism perpetuated by powerful countries and multinational corporations. Chapter concludes that only comprehensive strategies prioritising sustainability and inclusivity, beyond market-driven approaches will help build a more just and resilient future for Africa.
User-centered water and pasture monitoring and early warning system for conflict management in pastoral areas of Ethiopia
(Report, 2025-03) Dejene, Sintayehu W.; Alemayehu, Sintayehu; Tegegne, Getachew; Yodit, Y.; Tesfaye, Lidiya; Terefe, Tadesse; Gebre, Liyuneh
The Livestock Water Monitoring and Risk Management System (LWMRMS) Project, implemented by the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT in collaboration with various Ethiopian institutions and supported by the Gates Foundation, addresses challenges in sustainable pastoral development, climate change-induced risks, and resource-based conflicts. The project developed the ET-Monitoring platform, a web-based digital tool providing real-time water and pasture data in multiple languages. This platform helps pastoralists and stakeholders make informed decisions on livestock movement, reducing competition over resources and minimizing conflict risks. ET-Monitoring promotes sustainable resource use by guiding strategic grazing and watering practices, preventing overgrazing, and ensuring ecosystem health. It also supports data-driven conflict prevention and mediation by empowering local authorities and communities with evidence-based tools. The system contributes to peacebuilding, enhances cooperation, and aids crisis response planning for humanitarian agencies. Expanding ET-Monitoring to other pastoral regions will further strengthen pastoral resilience, reduce climate and resource-induced conflicts, and promote sustainable resource management across Ethiopia.
Who talks about climate, peace and security? A social media analysis to identify key actors
(Journal Article, 2025-01-29) Tucci, Giulia; Carneiro, Bia; Caroli, Giulia; Pacillo, Grazia
Uncovering key actors within a policy network provides pathways for engagement, consensus-building, partnership development, and understanding the diffusion of knowledge in a given debate. Given the unprecedented scale of the climate emergency, the emerging field of climate security has rapidly gained centrality in academic and policy fora, as well as in the public debate. Yet, a systematic analysis of the main actors engaged in this space is missing. This study draws from digital methods and network analysis techniques to employ a method for identifying relevant actors, focusing on Twitter (now X) from 2014 to 2022, with the objective of spotting the major actors driving public discussions around climate security. The research also demonstrates how institutions can position themselves within such issue networks through a case study of the Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research (CGIAR), a global research-for-development organization that has recently positioned itself in the climate security community. Results reveal that the climate security debate on social media is predominantly institutional, with research bodies and international organizations as central elements. While CGIAR is a relatively new actor, it is already centrally located in the network, maintaining strong connections with other major players, which places it in a strategic position to enhance its influence and reach. Understanding this discursive landscape is crucial for identifying opportunities for effective engagement, partnership, and positioning in such an increasingly salient field of research and practice.
Irrigated vegetable production interventions in humanitarian emergencies: Mali country deep dive
(Report, 2024-12-30) Singh, Radhika; Minh, Thai Thi; Schmitter, Petra
In the context of Mali, a Sahelian country facing challenges of insecurity, political instability, and climate change, irrigated vegetable production (IVP) interventions have the potential to enhance resilience outcomes and reduce the vulnerabilities of households and communities by increasing incomes and improving nutritional outcomes. The recommendations for IVP interventions presented in this document are informed by an understanding of the complex sociopolitical landscape of Mali and address both challenges and opportunities. For this study, a comprehensive research process was undertaken involving 19 key informant interviews with humanitarian organizations working in the country. These interviews were supplemented with insights from a wide range of secondary sources including journal articles and project reports. A rigorous approach was adopted to ensure the validity and reliability of the findings and recommendations. The key recommendations presented here have been carefully crafted to improve the design and implementation of IVP interventions undertaken by humanitarian organizations in emergency contexts in Mali. These recommendations align with the SEADS (Standards for Supporting Crop-related Livelihoods in Emergencies) minimum standards and are intended to complement the SEADS guidance on tools, equipment, and other non-seed inputs as well as impact monitoring and evaluation, thus providing an assurance of quality and relevance. First, it is important to ensure that the design, planning, and implementation of IVP interventions are contextually relevant while being focused on the unique needs of vulnerable communities. Interventions should be designed to address land access issues, especially for women and internally displaced persons. Security levels (safety risks, political instability, and conflict) should be considered when choosing water-lifting technologies, and interventions must be informed by a gender-sensitive approach. Second, mobilizing resources and investments is crucial to complement funding shortages for IVP interventions. This can involve measures like promoting space-efficient vertical gardening, supporting domestic vegetable production to procure less expensive and more suitable seeds for local conditions, and strengthening IVP value chains by linking farmers with local seed suppliers. Third, strengthening organizational capacity for resilience and long-term learning is recommended to enhance the delivery of impactful emergency assistance. This includes adopting a systems approach that considers the socioeconomic and environmental context of the intended intervention and sharing findings among humanitarian actors to foster a learning culture. Finally, improving data and knowledge management is advised for impactful IVP interventions. This could involve housing all groundwater data within an NGO, promoting the ongoing mapping of suitable irrigation technologies, and ensuring that data is freely accessible to all organizations involved in agricultural interventions. These recommendations offer a roadmap for humanitarian organizations, donors, and policymakers who aim to enhance the effectiveness and sustainability of IVP interventions in emergency contexts within Mali. They provide a framework for engaging with existing policies and governance structures and contribute to creating an enabling environment for effective interventions.
Strengthening Guatemala’s institutional response to climate-induced human mobility through capacity building and policy action
(Case Study, 2025-03-17) Pacillo, Grazia; Madurga Lopez, Ignacio
The Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT, through the CGIAR Research Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration (FCM), has strengthened Guatemala’s capacity to address climate-induced migration. By organizing national forums and training 54 civil servants, FCM improved inter-institutional coordination and stakeholders' understanding of climate, human mobility, and security. As a result, the Ministry of Environment (MARN) is co-developing a proposal with FCM to investigate drought‒migration linkages and identify integrated solutions to address the issue. The findings will inform policies to counter land degradation, enhance resilience, and improve food security and livelihoods, tackling key migration drivers.
Insights on climate peace, social cohesion and mobility in Namibia
(Brief, 2025-02) Sigopi, Maria; Makanda, Joseph; Maviza, Gracsious; Tarusarira, Joram; Amutenya, Klaudia; Thompson, Sylvia; Joao, Baptista; Hamukwaya, Panduleni
Climate change is having alarming effects on societies and ecosystems. There is also growing evidence of its impacts transforming and redefining the global peace and security landscape across local, national, and international levels. These impacts are triggering competition over natural resources, compromising livelihoods, and causing displacement, thereby increasing the risk of social tensions and instability
Assessing the integration of peace and security into climate change policies in Southern Africa
(Working Paper, 2025-02-25) Mandlenkosi, Maphosa; Synnestvedt, Thea; Gadu, Siyaxola; Campbell, Raramai; Maviza, Gracsious
Southern Africa is among the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions. The interrelated risks that climate impacts impose on food, land and water systems and the livelihoods of the people directly depending on them have been found to undermine social cohesion and increase human security risks across Southern Africa. In response, there is a need for governments in the region to acknowledge the specific risks that climate change and variability pose to their social systems and vulnerable populations and find suitable mechanisms to address the compounding risks of climate, peace and security. This paper aims to assess the extent to which climate, peace and security are provisioned for within existing climate-responsive policies in selected Southern African countries.
Cost effectiveness of anticipatory action: Lesotho, Madagascar, and Mozambique
(Report, 2025-02-24) de Brauw, Alan
An important question when conducting anticipatory action programs relates to its cost-effectiveness. By cost effectiveness, we refer to the relative costs and benefits of anticipatory action in general relative to a more standard approach to post-shock aid. In this context, we largely want to know what would happen to potential beneficiary households in two different scenarios: 1) if they receive anticipatory action transfers, and 2) if they instead receive unconditional post-shock transfers of the same size. The idea is that we assume there is a fixed budget envelope, and the same amount of assistance could be provided as either anticipatory action or as post-shock transfers. The resulting measurement estimates the difference in benefits and losses to providing anticipatory action relative to post-shock assistance, providing a conclusion on the overall net benefits or losses of this approach. Since we assume a fixed budget envelope, we invert the process of measuring cost effectiveness by measuring the net benefits of anticipatory action relative to post-shock transfers. This analysis uses the conceptual framework developed by de Brauw and Bloem (2024) to identify classes of potential benefits and costs for anticipatory action relative to unconditional post-shock transfers. The model suggests the main benefit to anticipatory action is that households can better protect their productive asset holdings, whether livestock or other farm implements, which implies their future incomes will be higher than they would be otherwise. There are also potential gains for households during the negative shock, implying those households may be less food insecure, for example, while the shock is occurring.1 On the other hand, the framework suggests that a specific cost to anticipatory action is the cost of getting it wrong (i.e., giving people benefits when the shock does not materialize for those people).
Retrospective analysis of the 2018-2020 humanitarian food and water crisis in Western Province, Zambia
(Photo Report, 2024-12-30) Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre; International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
Koolboks off-grid refrigeration solution in Nigeria: Innovation Package and Scaling Readiness (IPSR) Report
(Report, 2024-12-30) Quadri, S.; Luwa, S.; Michalscheck, Mirja; Kamanda, Josey
Barriers to an enabling environment in start-up acceleration in fragile and conflict-affected settings in Jordan and Nigeria
(Report, 2024-12-30) Ires, Idil
The enabling environment is a critical driver of business acceleration, particularly in sectors essential for sustainable development, such as agriculture, food, and water security. In Africa and the Middle East, these sectors underpin economic stability and livelihoods, yet businesses face numerous challenges that impede their ability to scale and innovate. A supportive enabling environment—comprising policy frameworks, institutional structures, access to finance, infrastructure, and market systems—plays a decisive role in overcoming systemic barriers such as food insecurity, climate change, and resource scarcity. However, structural weaknesses, fragmented markets, limited access to capital, and governance challenges continue to hinder the scaling of sustainable enterprises in these regions. This paper examines the enabling environment for business growth in fragile and conflict-affected contexts through the lens of three enterprises: AquaPoro (Jordan), iPlant (Jordan), and Koolboks (Nigeria). These SMEs, selected under the Stability-and-Peace Accelerator Program run by the World Food Programme in partnership with CGIAR’s Fragility, Conflict, Migration Initiative, are pioneering innovative solutions in water harvesting, vertical farming, and solar-powered refrigeration, respectively. Despite their potential to drive transformative change, they face significant regulatory, financial, and operational barriers that limit their ability to expand. Key findings reveal that AquaPoro encounters bureaucratic inefficiencies, regulatory opacity, and reliance on informal networks (wasta) in Jordan’s water sector. Policy reforms promoting transparency, financial incentives for water technology, and improved regulatory clarity could facilitate its growth. iPlant highlights the need for updated agricultural policies that recognize agritech innovations. High import tariffs and energy costs challenge its expansion, necessitating tax benefits, streamlined customs procedures, and enhanced financing mechanisms. Meanwhile, Koolboks in Nigeria struggles with various challenges, including customs delays, limited financing options, and security concerns in fragile regions. Addressing these issues through regulatory simplifications, targeted financial incentives, and strategic partnerships could enhance its market penetration and impact. To create a more conducive business environment, policymakers must prioritize regulatory transparency and reform, financial incentives and access to capital, market and infrastructure development, and public-private partnerships (PPPs). Reducing bureaucratic barriers, expanding funding opportunities for SMEs, strengthening distribution networks, and fostering collaboration between governments, international organizations, and the private sector are essential strategies for enabling sustainable enterprises to scale. By addressing these systemic challenges, African and Middle Eastern economies can unlock the full potential of sustainable enterprises, fostering economic inclusion, climate resilience, and long-term food and water security. This paper underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions that bridge policy-practice gaps and catalyze innovation in fragile and conflict-affected settings.
Innovation Showcase Meeting Report of the Stability-and-Peace Accelerator Program in Nigeria, Kenya and Jordan
(Report, 2024-12-30) Ahmed, D.; Kamanda, Josey; Nkosi, Mahlatse
Summary report of the Stability-and-Peace Accelerator Program in Nigeria, Kenya and Jordan
(Report, 2024-12-30) Ahmed, D.; Karunakaran, K.; Qiu, Z.; Al-Zu'bi, Maha; Michalscheck, Mirja; Kamanda, Josey; Quadri, S.; Nkosi, Mahlatse; Craparo, A.
Stability-and-Peace Accelerator: country cases for Nigeria, Kenya and Jordan
(Report, 2024-12-30) Ahmed, D.; Karunakaran, K.; Qiu, Z.; Al-Zu'bi, Maha; Michalscheck, Mirja; Kamanda, Josey; Quadri, S.; Nkosi, Mahlatse; Craparo, A.
The Stability and Peace Accelerator (SAPA) Program was implemented by the World Food Programme’s Innovation Accelerator and in collaboration with International Water Management Institute (IWMI), the Alliance of Biodiversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), and the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA), with support from the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration1 . The SAPA program focused on identifying and supporting the scaling of potentially high-impact innovations that bolster resilience of food, land, and water systems (FLWS) in Fragile and Conflict Affects (FCA) settings. The WFP Innovation Accelerator and CGIAR selected enterprises through a comprehensive multi-step sourcing and evaluation process. The program sought both low and high-tech solutions tailored to meet the distinct challenges present in FCAs, specifically in Jordan, Kenya, and Nigeria. The sourcing strategy was informed by an Ecosystem Assessment of Food, Land, Water Actors in the Humanitarian, Development, and Peace Nexus2 , which helped identify the following innovation priorities per country: • Jordan: Water and resilience in refugee and host communities • Kenya: Digital solutions for climate security and migration • Nigeria: Resilient food systems and nutrition The program provided financial, technical and venture coaching support to the four innovations over the course of 6 months, beginning in June 2024, and lasting until early December 2024, comprising a scoping, acceleration and closure phase. The country cases presented in this report provide a detailed examination of the project's context, innovation overview, and the specific challenges addressed. The cases also highlight the implementation process, the next steps and potential for scalability of the innovations in their respective settings.
Food and water security, early warning, early action and response in Western Province, Zambia: retrospective analysis of the 2018-2020 humanitarian food and water crisis in Western Province, Zambia
(Report, 2024-12-30) de Boer, T.; Mutenje, Munyaradzi; Nohayi, Ngowenani; Kasoma-Pele, Winnie; Arretche, C.; Jaime, C.
The food and water crisis that affected Zambia due to prolonged dry spells between 2018 and 2020 is an example of how natural, socioeconomic, and political drivers can produce compounding impacts with long-lasting implications for development. This retrospective disaster analysis explores the risk interactions and early warning early action functioning before and during the event, to draw lessons for anticipation and response to future crises of a similar nature. Combined, the findings feed into the understanding of risk and impacts, which is crucial for improving impact-focused early warning and implementation of early actions. The Government of Zambia’s Disaster Management and Mitigation Unity (DMMU) and Zambia Red Cross Society (ZRCS), key stakeholders in the research, indicated a gap in knowledge of the drivers and impacts of the food and water crisis in Western Province and EWEA functioning at the time, especially the more remote border areas located near the border with Angola and Namibia. No retrospective analysis of the 2018-2020 crisis event has so far included a review of the functioning of the EWEA components at the time at the national and local levels. Therefore, this analysis focuses on Western Province of Zambia, specifically the Sioma, Sesheke and Shang’ombo border districts. The research provides an in-depth perspective on one of the most recent food security crises in Zambia to inform localization and strengthen early warning and early action efforts at the national and community levels. The 2023 drought event in Zambia underscores the critical need for enhanced preparedness for similar crises. This research complements ongoing initiatives for early warning for drought (e.g. through the AWARE project) and efforts within the National Technical Working Group for Forecast-Based Financing, chaired by DMMU, on drought trigger and early action protocol development. This research's focus on hazard and vulnerability interactions aligns with the move to multi-hazard contingency planning in Zambia, led by DMMU. The mixed-methods forensic analysis builds on key informant interviews, focus group discussions, peer-reviewed literature, publicly accessible data and geospatial analysis to consider compounding and cascading risk interactions in 2018–2020 in Zambia, their attendant impacts and risk drivers, and available warnings as well as the communication and early actions associated with them. Complementing ongoing initiatives to strengthen EWEA activities in Zambia for food- and water-related impacts, this study provides contextual information that can support improved targeting, early action selection, warning system design and coordination.
Conflict forecast for digital solutions for climate security & migration in Kenya: Innovation Package and Scaling Readiness (IPSR) Report
(Report, 2024-12-30) Nkosi, Mahlatse; Michalscheck, Mirja; Kangethe, E.; Jacobs-Mata, Inga; Lepariyo, W.
Implementing anticipatory actions in fragile, conflict, and migration contexts: a review of global lessons
(Brief, 2024-12-30) Nohayi, Ngowenani; Ruckstuhl, Sandra; Hanke-Louw, Nora
Toolkit for anticipatory action in fragile, conflict- and violence-affected settings
(Training Material, 2024-12-30) Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre; Anticipation Hub; International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
The nexus between climate change, mobility, and conflict in Somalia
(Working Paper, 2025-03) Abdullahi, Said; Singh, Radhika; Takaindisa, Joyce; Giacomelli, Camilla; Sax, Niklas; Carneiro, Bia; Pacillo, Grazia
This study explored the interplay between the climate, mobility, peace, and security (CMPS) nexus in Somalia, a country that has faced both climate extremes and protracted conflict in the past decades. It examined how climate change and variability impacted livelihoods, particularly through their effects on food, land, and water systems, and how these changes influenced social responses towards patterns of mobility, cooperation, and/or conflict. The study also analyzed how climate and conflict interact to drive displacement and the multifaceted challenges faced by displaced populations in the country. Regarding the methodology, search queries were formulated using terms related to climate, mobility, peace, and security, and were run on the Web of Science and Google Scholar databases, capturing a wide range of peer- reviewed papers. Results from both platforms were then merged to eliminate duplications. In addition, grey literature, including reports, briefs, and policy papers from climate security and migration research institutes, along with information from local and international news organizations, was incorporated to ensure an updated analysis. The study found that climate-related impacts contribute to economic hardship, poverty, and increased dependency on humanitarian aid in Somalia, eroding societal resilience. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and droughts have disrupted pastoral and agricultural livelihoods, driving migration from rural areas and leading to one of the highest urbanization rates in the region. In addition, the study revealed that the convergent crises, namely climate and conflict, interact to drive displacement in the country. Displaced populations, particularly women and children, face increased vulnerability to gender-based violence and poor living conditions in overcrowded IDP camps. These populations strain urban infrastructure and disrupt established local clan dynamics and composition in the receiving areas, fueling tensions. Additionally, frequent and severe droughts have depleted pasture and created water stress, leading to deadly disputes over scarce resources among nomadic pastoralist clans. Finally, the study revealed how Al- Shabaab exploited and exacerbated climate- induced vulnerabilities, using blockades, taxation, and violence to control rural populations in regions already suffering from climate shocks. The study calls for targeted and context-specific interventions. It advocates for integrated strategies to bolster climate resilience through sustainable agricultural practices, urban planning for IDPs, and community-based conflict resolution mechanisms, particularly among nomadic pastoralists. By addressing these interconnected vulnerabilities, the study provides actionable insights for policymakers to mitigate the dual threats of climate change and conflict in Somalia.

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