IWMI Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/36185

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Clarity tubes as effective citizen science tools for monitoring wastewater treatment works and rivers
(Journal Article, 2024-09) Graham, P. M.; Pattinson, N. B.; Lepheana, A. T.; Taylor, R. J.
Improved freshwater resource management requires the implementation of widespread, effective, and timely water quality monitoring. Conventional monitoring methods are often inhibited by financial, infrastructural, and human capacity limitations, especially in developing regions. This study aimed to validate the citizen-scientist-operated transparency or clarity tube (hereafter “clarity tube”) for measuring water clarity as a proxy for total suspended solids (TSS) concentration, a critical quality metric in river systems and wastewater treatment works (WWTW) effluent in Southern Africa. Clarity tubes provided a relatively accurate and precise proxy for TSS in riverine lotic systems and WWTW effluent, revealing significant inverse log- linear relationships between clarity and TSS with r 2 = 0.715 and 0.503, respectively. We demonstrate that clarity-derived estimates of TSS concentration (TSScde) can be used to estimate WWTW compliance with WWTW effluent TSS concentration regulations. The measurements can then be used to engage with WWTW management, potentially affecting WWTW performance. Overall, these findings demonstrate the usefulness of clarity tubes as low-cost, accessible, and easy-to-use citizen science tools for high spatial and temporal resolution water quality monitoring, not only in rivers in Southern Africa but also in WWTW effluent for estimating compliance, with strong global relevance to the sustainable development goals (SDGs).
Does a citizen science approach enhance the effectiveness of flood early warning systems? Evidence from the Akaki Catchment, Ethiopia
(Journal Article, 2025-02) Nigussie, Likimyelesh; Bekele, Tilaye Worku; Haile, Alemseged Tamiru; Mdee, A.; Nicol, Alan; Cohen, J.; Osei-Amponsah, Charity; Tedla, H. Z.; Demissie, Kirubel
Flooding has emerged as a significant concern in the Akaki catchment area of Ethiopia, affecting settlements and properties. Early warning systems (EWSs) are implemented to reduce flood risks, but power dynamics among at-risk communities and stakeholders have raised concerns about the reliable accessibility of warning information. We integrated a citizen science approach into existing flood EWSs to promote inclusivity, local perspectives, and equitable expertise distribution in flood early warning. It draws on primary data collected through diverse methods, alongside an extensive review of documents from the years 2021 to 2022. The analysis of qualitative data indicates the integration of citizen science into a flood EWSs delivers dependable early warning information and encourages the establishment of networks. This approach reduces dependence on external entities, enhances local decision-making capabilities, and promotes a sense of ownership, empowerment, and trust. This can transform the dynamics and responsibilities linked to flood management. However, the longer-term participation of citizen scientists in flood EWSs is challenging due to the disparity between commitment levels and benefits, lack of legal frameworks, and insufficient recognition of community diversity within policy frameworks. The research herein emphasizes the significance of understanding power dynamics and institutional capacities in integrating citizen science into flood EWSs. It offers valuable perspectives for policymakers, practitioners, and communities on participatory governance, social equity, and the resilience of communities in the face of environmental challenges.
Improving smallholder farmers’ access to and utilization of climate information services in sub-Saharan Africa through social networks: a systematic review
(Journal Article, 2025-01) Appiah, Collins E.; Quarmine, William; Osei-Amponsah, Charity; Okem, Andrew E.; Sarpong, D. B.
The timely availability, access to, and utilisation of actionable climate information services (CIS) serve as an effective mechanism to address the impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Scholarly work from diverse contexts reveals that farmers’ social networks can be leveraged to promote access to CIS to mitigate climate risk. However, there is no synthesised information on the different insights that comprehensively demonstrate how social networks improve access to and utilisation of CIS among smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper employed a systematic literature review methodology to fill this knowledge gap. A stringent inclusion criterion was used to select 32 relevant peer-reviewed papers from an initial pool of 648 for analysis. Our study found farmers’ social networks to effectively promote CIS access and utilisation among smallholders in Sub-Saharan Africa. This was mainly as a result of the use of relatable local languages and the opportunity it provided for direct interaction during information flow. Smallholder farmers in big networks with stronger linkages, higher levels of participation, and a greater degree of trust, were identified to be more likely to utilise CIS to improve their livelihoods. Such farmers tend to have higher technical efficiency, productivity, and incomes. To harness social networks to scale up CIS access and utilisation, innovative platforms that can enhance social networking among farmers must be promoted and strengthened by agricultural devel opment stakeholders.
A framework for addressing the interconnectedness of early warning to action and finance to strengthen multiscale institutional responses to climate shocks and disasters
(Journal Article, 2025-01) Attoh, Emmanuel M. N. A. N.; Amarnath, Giriraj
Early warning systems (EWS) inform decision making and planning in response to climate shocks and catastrophic disasters. However, the current disaster response mechanism falls short due to the fragmented warning, action, and finance systems, coupled with inadequate institutional collaboration, coordination and inclusive engagement for effective anticipatory action. This study addresses this challenge by introducing an Early Warning, Action and Finance (AWARE) platform to promote anticipatory action through multistakeholder engagement. Data from literature re views, expert surveys, and stakeholder workshops in Senegal, Zambia and Sri Lanka helped identify the platform’s needs and priorities. The study draws upon theories of technological frames, interpretative flexibility, boundary objects, social learning, collaborative governance and adaptive co-management to conceptualize a framework for AWARE. Results demonstrate the potential of AWARE as a boundary object that fosters social engagement, active involvement, open communication, collaboration, and shared commitment to safeguarding lives and liveli hoods. Analysis of technological frames and interpretative flexibility underscores the role of social learning in shaping the design and user features that promote multiscale institutional responses to disasters. AWARE aligns with the priorities of the Sendai Framework and emphasizes system thinking, co-production of knowledge, and the need for context-specific solutions to enhance anticipatory action. Recognizing the limitations of one-size-fits-all EWS, the AWARE framework acknowledges contextual factors as barriers to implementation. The study underscores the importance of integrated EWS and collaborative efforts to overcome implementation barriers and improve anticipatory action outcomes.
Role of livestock sector in bridging income inequality among agricultural households in India [An abstract]
(Abstract, 2024-10) Jagadeesh, M. S.; Kuriachen, Philip; Vinay, H. T.; Kumar, S.
Income inequality in India poses significant challenges, particularly within agricultural households. This study examines the role of livestock in reducing income inequality among these households by using data from the ‘Situation Assessment Survey of Agricultural Households’ (NSSO 77th round, 2019). The Gini coefficient was used to measures income inequality, and regression-based decomposition analysis to identify the contribution of different income sources to overall inequality. The findings highlight that livestock income plays a crucial role in mitigating income inequality. Crop income constitutes the largest share of total revenue but also shows high inequality, especially in South India. Livestock income, despite regional disparities, emerges as a significant equalizer, particularly in reducing inequality in lower-income households. The study underscores the potential of livestock to enhance rural livelihoods, with states like Chhattisgarh and Kerala exhibiting notable disparities in livestock income distribution. Inequality decomposition reveals that one percent increase in the livestock share in total income can reduce inequality by 1.24 per cent. Moreover, increasing livestock productivity and income can significantly bridge the income gap, fostering equitable growth in rural communities. Policies targeting livestock sector enhancement are essential for reducing poverty, improving resilience, and combating food insecurity. This research highlights the importance of integrating livestock development into broader economic strategies to achieve sustainable and inclusive rural development. The findings contribute to understanding how targeted interventions in the livestock sector can address income inequality among agricultural households in India.
Determinants of lease rents of village ponds for aquaculture: evidence from Central Gujarat [An abstract]
(Abstract, 2024-10) Kuriachen, Philip; Basu, S.; Choudhury, A. P.; Verma, Shilp; Shah, Tushaar
The fishery sector in the country is undergoing a remarkable transformation, with India now being the second-largest fish producer in the world, and fish becoming the highest-exported item from India. Despite the sector’s growth, challenges persist for smallholders, limiting their productivity and curbing livelihood opportunities. Maximizing profitability is imperative amidst rising input costs. One key factor identified in this study is the lease rent paid for community ponds allocated to farmers. By focusing on Central Gujarat’s village pond leasing policy, the study examines the dynamics surrounding the auctioning of village ponds and the factors influencing them. Contrary to other states, Gujarat employs an open auction policy for village ponds to encourage competitive bidding among interested parties. However, the prevalence of information asymmetry on pond values among bidders hinders auction efficacy, leading to inefficient allocation. The study hypothesizes that auctions for village ponds resemble common value auctions, where bidders face uncertainty regarding the true value of the asset. Identifying the determinants of bidder valuation and integrating them into the determination of upset prices can mitigate information asymmetry, enhance auction efficacy, and reduce adverse selection. The study also identified considerable variance between the bid values of different ponds. On average, the bid value comprises 25 per cent of the total cost for a fish farmer in Anand district of Gujarat, with a tremendous difference between the highest and lowest bid values per hectare. While the highest bid value of the surveyed pond was Rs 1.7 lakh/hectare, the lowest bid value was recorded at Rs 900/hectare. This huge variance in bid value data and contributing factors was considered a crucial area of exploration. The study deployed Directed Acyclic Graphs and Linear Regression methodologies to identify the extent of this influence. The key findings could inform strategies to address such cost constraints, ultimately empowering smallholders to capitalize on opportunities within this rapidly evolving sector. By optimizing the auction process, stakeholders can unlock the full potential of village ponds, driving inclusive growth and sustainable development in India’s fisheries sector.
Investigating differential nutritional and productivity impacts of improved data, policy and accountability mechanisms in Africa’s middle and low-income countries
(Journal Article, 2025-01) Matchaya, Greenwell Collins; Greffiths, Ikhothatseng Jacob
Africa’s agricultural transformation is on-going but its pace is slow, which is why African Heads of State launched the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) in 2003 to speed up agricultural transformation. This study examines the differential effects of improved data and accountability systems under the CAADP program in 40 African countries over the period 2008–2021 on reported mortalities attributable to poor nutrition and productivity. The paper uses a relatively larger sample size of countries and longer periods, thereby providing better clarity on the issues as compared to previous studies Using econometric analysis techniques, the results revealed that nutrition related mortality is significantly negatively related to productivity measures, good policy implementation and evidence reliance scores implying that improvements in these variables improve nutritional outcomes. Mutual accountability processes significantly influence investment decisions,which in turn affect productivity and nutritional outcomes. The results also indicated that a 1% increase in the mutual accountability scores is associated with a 0.5% increase in the size of the agriculture sector for the low-income countries and it is also associated with a 0.3% increase in the share of agriculture employment in the middle-income countries. This paper provides useful information to stakeholders who are currently supporting the CAADP to achieve food security and nutrition. There is a need to improve data systems and accountability mechanisms further in order to promote evidence-based decision-making, improve productivity, and benefit nutritional goals. Policy analysis in this area must disaggregate countries by income group to ensure correct advice is generated for the right set of countries. The paper therefore generates important insights related to investment, nutrition, productivity, mutual accountability and availability of data. Contrary to the sentiments that public investments in agricultural sectors are a waste, we call for an increase in public spending to the sector as it improves both the agriculture sector and health outcomes.
New Information and Communication Technologies for climate services: evidence from farmers in Ada East District, Ghana
(Journal Article, 2025-01) Sarku, R.; Addi, F.; Attoh, Emmanuel M. N. A. N.
How people respond to climate information service (CIS) depends on how information is designed and communicated. While the introduction of new information and communication technologies (ICTs) has improved the delivery of CIS, there are persistent usability challenges, especially among smallholder farmers. This study examined the usability of new ICTs in delivering CIS for farming in Ada East District, Ghana. The research addressed the question, how do smallholder farmers respond to CIS delivered through new ICTs, and what are the usability challenges of these technologies. Using data from document reviews, interviews, and focus group discussions, findings show that farmers predominantly rely on local or indigenous knowledge and traditional ICTs like radio and television for CIS, 7 New ICTs including: Website on weather information, Bulletin on social media: Facebook, WhatsApp weather forecast presented as a flyer, YouTube video on weather information, Short message service (SMS), Audio WhatsApp weather forecast and Weather apps were identified, providing daily, weekly and seasonal forecasts outlooks. However, the utilisation of these new ICTs is relatively limited. Only a few farmers were aware of the delivery of CIS through these new ICTs. Farmers with smartphones are mainly those who access daily and seasonal forecast outlooks using new ICTs, while face-to-face interactions remain the common mode for disseminating information among farmers. Although new ICTs offer forecasts, usability is influenced by the relevance and comprehension of the content, location success and time, typography, symbols and graphics, language clarity, feedback and interactivity and ability to use the new ICT tools. The findings of the study have implications for CIS developers and providers to incorporate design principles such as revision of text structure, font style and size, symbols, wording pattern and word counts. It shed light on the evolving landscape of CIS delivery in farming communities, where traditional methods coexist with emerging digital platforms and provided knowledge on the need to raise awareness on the use of new ICTs with CIS among farmers.
More food, but less land and water for nature: why agricultural productivity gains did not materialize
(Journal Article, 2025-02-01) Seijger, C.; Urfels, A.; Christoforidou, M.; Hellegers, P.; Borghuis, G.; Langan, Simon; van Halsema, G.
Realism about productivity gains in agriculture and water is critical to understand if the world can feed itself while protecting nature. We use government-reported data to review progress over 2000–2020 compared to projections for irrigated and rainfed agriculture and trade. Our results over the period 2000–2020 show that productivity gains largely did not materialize. Instead of consolidating cereal production and trade in favourable regions like North America, Europe and Russia, their arable land declined by 35 million hectares, while arable land expanded by 74 million hectares in Africa, Latin America and Eastern Asia. Likewise, water productivity gains did not materialize, as photosynthesis breakthroughs did not occur. Land productivity (yield) gains were projected to rise 21–61 %, making the observed increase in cereal yields of 31 % a slight one. This puts the world on the path of using steadily more land and water to produce food and feed, at the expense of nature. Solutions to veer off this path include reducing food demand (including dietary change), stabilising rainfed agriculture and broadening the crop genetic resources base.
Realizing collective action in agency-constrained contexts: the case of the Community Fish Refuges in Cambodia
(Journal Article, 2025-01) Baldivieso Soruco, C. R.; De Silva, Sanjiv; Gleich, P.; Yan, Y.; Dubois, Mark; Sieber, S.; Bonatti, M.
In rural Cambodia, inland freshwater and rice field fisheries are key sources of income, animal protein, and important ecosystem services. As the flood pulse in the Tonlé Sap floodplain recedes post-monsoon, leaving rice fields and local water bodies dry, Community Fish Refuges (CFRs) offer a promising path to sustain dry season fish stocks, aquatic biodiversity, and secure water for agriculture and husbandry. Their sustained physical integrity and productivity as multiple-use systems hinge on communities’ ability to manage these systems collectively. To explore whether the studied communities have been able to respond to the challenge of collectively governing CFR, we investigate two CFR sites that were established in 2016 by local and international organizations alongside State authorities. Our aim is to investigate two key aspects: 1) the presence, extent, and efficacy of community-level collective action (CA) for managing CFRs; and 2) the factors that either facilitate or inhibit CA regarding CFRs. We conducted a qualitative case study between March and May 2023 at two sites in Kampong Thom Province. These were selected because while they have similar ecological features, they show different management results according to the implementing international organization WorldFish. This paper delves into a process guided by external agents seeking to reshape local behavior and existing institutional frameworks. Results show how centralized power structures and entrenched rural patronage politics in villages limit villagers’ participation and agency in CFRs management. Villagers encounter constraints hindering their capacity to instigate change, prompting a re-evaluation of the CFR Committee’s composition and operation to ensure broader legitimacy among actors. While emphasizing extended project funding and informed external intervention strategies, the study underscores doubts about short-term CA feasibility. It highlights the critical influence of contextual factors and policymakers’ assumptions in achieving effective collective governance. Structural factors and the deeply human process of pulling together a plurality of stakeholders pose challenges to establishing community-based projects prioritizing diverse voices.
A comprehensive evaluation of satellite-based and reanalysis soil moisture products over the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
(Journal Article, 2024-12) Alaminie, A. A.; Annys, S.; Nyssen, J.; Jury, M. R.; Amarnath, Giriraj; Mekonnen, M. A.; Tilahun, Seifu A.
Soil moisture data is crucial for enhancing drought monitoring, optimizing water management, refining irriga tion schedules, forecasting floods, and understanding climate change impacts. Despite the existence of long-term global satellite and reanalysis products, the performance of global satellite products in Ethiopia is underexplored, highlighting a need for comprehensive assessments to effectively utilize these resources and address critical environmental challenges. This research evaluates various operational satellites and reanalysis soil moisture datasets over the Gilgel Abay watershed. The datasets include the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture (ESA-CCI SM), Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive mission (SMAP Enhanced), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Fifth Generation Reanalysis (ECMWF ERA5), Climate Forecast System reanalysis (CFSRv2), NASA’s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center - Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS), and NASA’s Global Land Data Assimi lation System (GLDAS). After applying bias correction, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov two-sample t-tests, Bonferroni correction, and statistical error metrics, the evaluation reveals that all products, except NASA-GLDAS, effectively capture soil moisture dynamics. SMAP shows superior temporal dynamics, followed by SMOS, ESA-CCI, CFSRv2, LIS and ERA5. Using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (rs), SMAP (rs = 0.68) and SMOS (rs = 0.67) identified as the most accurate soil moisture products, with SMOS excelling in spatial representation and closely aligning with the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI). However, the lack of sufficient in situ monitoring networks limits the ability to perform a thorough evaluation. Establishing these networks is essential for improving sat ellite retrievals and modelling in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia.
Footprints of drought risk on Africa’s agricultural, water and nutritional security
(Journal Article, 2024-09) Sharma, Tarul; Amarnath, Giriraj; Amarasinghe, Upali; Seid, Abdulkarim
Prolonged and recurrent droughts seriously threaten Africa’s food and water security. This threat frequently coexists with human-induced calamities, such as domestic and international conflicts and civil unrest, which could exacerbate the socio-economic instability already present in the region. Using a novel data-driven approach, we evaluated how drought risk in Africa affects the security of various crucial sectors of sustainable development, such as agriculture, water, and food nutrition/health (referred here as ‘nutritional’). Our findings show that different sectors and geographical areas exhibit distinct risk footprints. In Central African countries, for instance, we found that social instability linked to higher nutritional risk is more prevalent than that resulting from the agriculture and water sectors. Socio-economic volatility rather than uncertainty in the climate is the primary driver of this elevated nutritional risk. However, most Northern African countries are at risk of considerable agriculture and water insecurity because of extreme water stress and unstable climate trends. We indicate that the risk is majorly driven by recurrent drought events in Southern Africa, which significantly affect inclusive sectoral securities. The cause of higher risks in Eastern and Western Africa has been found to be an unfavorable interaction of all the risk components—vulnerability, exposure, and hazard. Notably, basic amenities, climate stability, and access to sustainable and renewable water sources are often missing from Africa’s sectoral risk hotspots. Our results emphasize the necessity of maximizing the efficacy of bottom-up initiatives to achieve sustainable food and water security, by integrating socio-economic policies and climate change at the granular level through observation.
Mapping the potential of managed aquifer recharge in Africa: GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis approach
(Journal Article, 2024-11) Ebrahim, Girma Yimer; Stefan, C.; Sallwey, J.; Lautze, Jonathan
Africa faces numerous challenges related to rainfall variability, droughts, water scarcity, and climate change. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR)- groundwater recharge and underground water storage for later use or environmental support presents a viable alternative for water storage and may provide an effective tool for coping with such challenges. However, the potential area where MAR can be feasibly implemented has not been identified. This study mapped MAR feasibility using a Geographic Information System-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (GIS-MCDA) and assessed MAR potential in Africa. The methodology focused on three key pillars of MAR feasibility: intrinsic suitability based on biophysical parameters, water source availability, and water demand. Maps responding to these pillars were developed and combined to create a composite MAR feasibility map. Results show that 18% of the continental area falls into the low feasibility class, 73% into the moderate feasibility class, and 7% into the high feasibility class. The feasibility map was validated against 17 existing MAR schemes in Africa, demonstrating a good correlation between their locations and areas with MAR potential. Results of sensitivity analysis of criteria weights of the biophysical parameters show that geology is the most influential criterion, followed by slope. In general, this first feasibility assessment shows good potential for MAR implementation in Africa. Therefore, MAR should be considered prominently among other water storage options for resilience building in Africa and policymakers should ensure adequate resource allocation for its implementation. The feasibility map can be used to guide MAR planning and investment decisions.
Enhancing smallholder agricultural production through sustainable use of shallow groundwater in the Borkena Catchment, Awash River Basin, Ethiopia
(Journal Article, 2024-10-01) Ebrahim, Girma Yimer; Taye, Meron Teferi; Seid, Abdulkarim; Tekleab, S.
With increasing shallow groundwater use for agricultural purposes, understanding the spatiotemporal variability in recharge rates, storage capacity, and its interaction with surface waters becomes crucial for its sustainable management. An integrated SWAT–MODFLOW model is developed to assess shallow groundwater availability in the Borkena catchment. The model is calibrated using streamflow and static groundwater level data. Results show that groundwater recharge in the catchment is 85 mm/a, representing 11% of the mean annual rainfall. Shallow groundwater resources exist across nearly 42% of the Borkena catchment. The percentage of shallow groundwater withdrawal to groundwater recharge is very low (0.1%), signifying the potential for increased shallow groundwater development. However, caution must be taken as its uncontrolled expansion may result in a high risk of depletion. This integrated modeling is one of the few efforts conducted to provide important information regarding shallow groundwater potential in the Borkena catchment, which is essential for the resilience of small-scale producers in the continued growing water demand and climate change.
Low-cost sensors and multitemporal remote sensing for operational turbidity monitoring in an East African wetland environment
(Journal Article, 2024-03) Steinbach, S.; Rienow, A.; Chege, M. W.; Dedring, N.; Kipkemboi, W.; Thiong’o, B. K.; Zwart, Sander Jaap; Nelson, A.
Many wetlands in East Africa are farmed and wetland reservoirs are used for irrigation, livestock, and fishing. Water quality and agriculture have a mutual influence on each other. Turbidity is a principal indicator of water quality and can be used for, otherwise, unmonitored water sources. Low-cost turbidity sensors improve in situ coverage and enable community engagement. The availability of high spatial resolution satellite images from the Sentinel-2 multispectral instrument and of bio-optical models, such as the Case 2 Regional CoastColor (C2RCC) processor, has fostered turbidity modeling. However, these models need local adjustment, and the quality of low-cost sensor measurements is debated. We tested the combination of both technologies to monitor turbidity in small wetland reservoirs in Kenya. We sampled ten reservoirs with low-cost sensors and a turbidimeter during five Sentinel-2 overpasses. Low-cost sensor calibration resulted in an R2 of 0.71. The models using the C2RCC C2X-COMPLEX (C2XC) neural nets with turbidimeter measurements (R2 =0.83) and with low-cost measurements (R2 = 0.62) performed better than the turbidimeter-based C2X model. The C2XC models showed similar patterns for a one-year time series, particularly around the turbidity limit set by Kenyan authorities. This shows that both the data from the commercial turbidimeter and the low-cost sensor setup, despite sensor uncertainties, could be used to validate the applicability of C2RCC in the study area, select the better-performing neural nets, and adapt the model to the study site. We conclude that combined monitoring with low-cost sensors and remote sensing can support wetland and water management while strengthening community-centered approaches.
Future research directions for understanding the interconnections between climate change, water scarcity, and mobility in rural Central Asia
(Journal Article, 2024-12) Hermans, K.; Djanibekov, N.; Abdullaev, Iskandar; Abduvalieva, N.; Assubayeva, A.; Blondin, S.; Bobojonov, I.; Conrad, C.; Herzfeld, T.; Kansiime, J.; Kimsanova, B.; Laldjebaev, M.; Mirkasimov, B.; Mirzabaev, A.; Murzakulova, A.; Rajabova, S.; Samakov, A.; Schraven, B.; Sterly, H.; Umirbekov, A.
Central Asia faces substantial water scarcity due to increasing water demand driven by rapid urbanization, population growth, economic development, and inefficiency of irrigated agriculture. These developments are compounded by the effects of climate change, such as rising temperatures, loss of glacier mass and increased frequency of extreme events, including droughts. The region’s escalating water scarcity is causing disputes and straining rural livelihoods. Moreover, these challenges drive migration, creating considerable societal impacts. However, these issues remain underexplored in climate change research, making the region a global blind spot in climate adaptation and migration studies. We advocate for innovative research pathways that scrutinize smallholder adaptation strategies, examine the nexus between climate change, water scarcity, and mobility, and investigate tensions and cooperation over water resources. We conclude by emphasizing that substantial investments in inter- and transdisciplinary collaboration, improved data availability and quality, and strengthening of research and institutional capacities are essential to advance interdisciplinary climate impact research in Central Asia. Such efforts are vital for addressing existing knowledge gaps and enhancing evidence-based policymaking to improve the region’s position in current and future debates on climate change and sustainable development.
Teal-WCA: a climate services platform for planning solar photovoltaic and wind energy resources in West and Central Africa in the context of climate change
(Journal Article, 2024-12) Obahoundje, Salomon; Diedhiou, A.; Troccoli, A.; Boorman, P.; Alabi, T. A. F.; Anquetin, S.; Crochemore, L.; Fassinou, W. F.; Hingray, B.; Koné, D.; Mamadou, C.; Sorho, F.
To address the growing electricity demand driven by population growth and economic development while mitigating climate change, West and Central African countries are increasingly prioritizing renewable energy as part of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This study evaluates the implications of climate change on renewable energy potential using ten downscaled and bias-adjusted CMIP6 models (CDFt method). Key climate variables—temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed—were analyzed and integrated into the Teal-WCA platform to aid in energy resource planning. Projected temperature increases of 0.5–2.7 C (2040–2069) and 0.7–5.2 C (2070–2099) relative to 1985–2014 underscore the need for strategies to manage the rising demand for cooling. Solar radiation reductions (~15 W/m2 ) may lower photovoltaic (PV) efficiency by 1–8.75%, particularly in high-emission scenarios, requiring a focus on system optimization and diversification. Conversely, wind speeds are expected to increase, especially in coastal regions, enhancing wind power potential by 12–50% across most countries and by 25–100% in coastal nations. These findings highlight the necessity of integrating climate-resilient energy policies that leverage wind energy growth while mitigating challenges posed by reduced solar radiation. By providing a nuanced understanding of the renewable energy potential under changing climatic conditions, this study offers actionable insights for sustainable energy planning in West and Central Africa.
Multimodel and multiconstituent scenario construction for future water quality
(Journal Article, 2024-12) Bouwman, A. F.; Bärlund, I.; Beusen, A. H. W.; Flörke, M.; Gramberger, M.; Rivera Cardona, J.; Podgorski, J.; van den Roovaart, J.; Grizzetti, B.; Janssen, A. B. G.; Kumar, R.; Langan, Simon; Poikane, S.; Spears, B. M.; Strokal, M.; Tang, T.; Troost, T. A.; Vigiak, O.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Vystavna, Y.; Wang, M.; Hofstra, N.
Freshwater pollution is, together with climate change, one of today’s most severe and pervasive threats to the global environment. Comprehensive and spatially explicit scenarios covering a wide range of constituents for freshwater quality are currently scarce. In this Global Perspective paper, we propose a novel model-based approach for five water quality constituents relevant for human and ecosystem health (nitrogen, biochemical oxygen demand, anthropogenic chemicals, fecal coliform, and arsenic). To project the driving forces and consequences for emissions and impacts, a set of common data based on the same assumptions was prepared and used in different large-scale water quality models including all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural changes, as well as threshold concentrations to determine the risk for human and ecosystem health. The analysis portrays the strong links among water quality, socio-economic development, and lifestyle. Internal consistency of assumptions and input data is a prerequisite for constructing comparable scenarios using different models to support targeted policy development.
Threshold-based flood early warning in an urbanizing catchment through multi-source data integration: satellite and citizen science contribution
(Journal Article, 2024-05) Tedla, H. Z.; Bekele, Tilaye Worku; Nigussie, Likimyelesh; Negash, E. D.; Walsh, C. L.; O'Donnell, G.; Haile, Alemseged Tamiru
An effective flood early warning system is vital to take action to save lives and protect properties in urban areas which are increasingly prone to flooding. Despite substantial progress in flood early warning systems, limited available and accessible data often impede their advancement and reliability. Engaging communities affected by flooding can help address data and information gaps in flood early warning systems, facilitated by appropriate methods. This study developed and evaluated a flood threshold combination method to support a community-based flood early warning system in the Akaki catchment, home to Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia. Various flood threshold combinations were formulated, calibrated and validated by integrating multiple sources of data: rainfall, antecedent precipitation index estimates, Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite time series of flood extent, long-term simulated streamflow, citizen science data, river water level and three days lead-time numerical weather prediction rainfall forecast. During validation, the rainfall and river water level threshold combination outperformed other threshold combinations with probability of detection, false alarm ratio, and critical success index estimates of 0.74, 0.18 and 0.63, respectively. The flood threshold combination showed high detection performance for most flooding conditions. Flood forecasts with a 1-day lead-time exhibited a high likelihood in detecting historical severe flood events. The study provides a tested methodology for selecting suitable flood threshold-combinations, enhance the engagement of citizen scientists in a community–based flood early warning system in urban communities.
Value of quality controlled citizen science data for rainfall-runoff characterization in a rapidly urbanizing catchment
(Journal Article, 2024-02) Mengistie, G. K.; Wondimagegnehu, Kirubel Demissie; Walker, D. W.; Haile, Alemseged Tamiru
The major concern of applying citizen science in water resources is the quality of the data. However, there are limited scientific studies addressing this concern and showing the data value. In this study, we established a citizen science program in the Akaki catchment which hosts Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Citizen scientists monitored river stage at multiple gauging sites for multiple years. We evaluated the quality of citizen science data through a systematic quality control. Reference data was obtained from neighboring stations of the citizen science program and professionals while the evaluation involved graphical inspections and statistical methods. The quality-controlled data were applied to evaluate the spatial and temporal variation of rainfall-runoff relationships. Initially, large numbers of suspicious data were detected using single station data but that was significantly reduced when the data of multiple sites were compared. Further comparison against professional data revealed excellent agreement with high correlation coefficient (r >0.95), and low centered root mean square error (RMSE) <0.03–0.08 mm. The citizen science data indicated a large difference in rainfall-runoff relationship over the dominantly urban and rural sub-catchments. The citizen science data allowed comparison of runoff coefficient and base flow index for recent and historical periods where recent streamflow data is unavailable from a formal data source. This study illustrates the immense value of (i) multiple data quality assessment steps for building confidence on the quality of citizen science data, and (ii) citizen science for enhancing our understanding of rainfall-runoff relationships and change in a rapidly urbanizing catchment.

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