IFPRI Project Papers

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/129232

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Unique datasets on shocks, food security, and household coping strategies: Creating new analytical playgrounds to study coping behavior in the multi-shock environments of Mali, Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso (2018-2023)
(Working Paper, 2025-02-13) Marivoet, Wim; Sib, Ollo; Samake, Aliou Badara; Dieme, Ndeye Fatou; Hema, Aboubacar; Doehnert, Federico; Suzuki, Mina
To inform the Cadre Harmonisé process in West Africa, large-scale national household surveys are usually implemented twice a year to capture data on household food security and several forms of consumption- and livelihood-based coping strategies. These cross-sectional surveys typically take place around February-March (before the start of the lean season) and September-October (at the end of the lean season or beginning of the harvesting period), and they are generally representative at the second-tier administrative level. Despite their different names (that is, ENSAN in Mali, ENSA in Chad, EVIAM in Niger, and ENISAN in Burkina Faso) and the methodological revisions introduced over the years, these surveys have a large common set of variables that were pooled together by standardizing the modalities of all common variables found across the multiple survey waves between 2018 and 2023. Apart from reconsolidation and reprocessing of initial data files, this process also involved the re-computation of several key indicators on food security and household coping as to assure maximum methodological consistency over time.
IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, January 2025
(Report, 2025-02-11) International Food Policy Research Institute; Banda, Chimwemwe
Highlights  Retail prices of maize increased by 21 percent in January.  Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania and northern Zambia enter the country, and increased southward.  Some maize was exported to southern Zambia, but high prices in southern Malawi attracted imports from Mozambique.  At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and lower than in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.
PEDAL Country Snapshot: Madagascar
(Brief, 2025) Resnick, Danielle
Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) helps combat micronutrient deficiencies by adding essential vitamins and minerals to staple foods. This PEDAL assessment identifies key priorities for Madagascar by evaluating its political will and implementation capacity for LSFF. For more information about PEDAL and the detailed Madagascar case study, please see PEDAL for Madagascar brief.
Conditional contracts in indirect local procurement of maize from smallholder farmers in Uganda: A study design to assess impacts
(Brief, 2025-02) Raghunathan, Kalyani; Abate, Gashaw T.; Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia; Mukangabo, Emerence; Mugabo, Serge; Benin, Samuel
Improving smallholder farmers’ access to reliable markets can have significant impacts on their wellbeing, income, poverty reduction, dietary diversity, and rural economic growth. As the choice of marketing channels may influence outcomes differently depending on the context, a key issue is understanding the effectiveness of different marketing instruments. One such modality is a conditional contract between a buyer and the traders supplying it. Such a contract requires traders to source a certain percentage of their supplies directly from smallholder farmers. This raises the question of whether conditional contracts create access to reliable markets for smallholder farmers, result in value chain transformation, and sustain market engagement between traders and smallholder farmers.
Methodology [of the PEDAL project]
(Brief, 2025-02) Resnick, Danielle
Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) is considered one of the most cost-effective ways of addressing micronutrient deficiencies. The intervention involves adding essential minerals and vitamins to widely consumed foods and requires minimal changes to consumption patterns while relying on existing food delivery systems. However, there is a lot of variability across countries in the adoption of mandatory and voluntary LSFF standards, that is, the government legislation requiring that specific staple foods or condiments be fortified. In fact, there are more than 80 countries where micronutrient deficiencies are widespread but a mandatory fortification standard has not been adopted. Even in countries where standards have been adopted, implementation could not be financially sustained over the years or laboratory tests revealed that designated food vehicles lacked the stipulated micronutrients. The Political Economy Diagnostic for Assessing Large-Scale Food Fortification (PEDAL) is designed to identify the ways in which political and institutional factors may contribute to differences in the uptake and implementation of LSFF standards. While political economy is acknowledged to be an important factor underlying the success or failure of LSFF, few studies on LSFF explicitly incorporate it into their analyses. By reducing LSFF to a purely technical intervention, bottlenecks to policy traction can worsen and derail uptake. In contrast, PEDAL offers a systematic diagnostic of the political economy environment for LSFF to identify these bottlenecks ex ante and to calibrate policy interventions accordingly. In doing so, PEDAL aims to help countries advance toward achieving healthier diets and reducing micronutrient deficiencies. PEDAL focuses on two core elements of the enabling environment: political will and implementation capacity (see Figure 1). Political will consists of the range of interests that motivate different stakeholders, the ideational goals that underlie their policy preferences, and their degree of leverage to exert their preferences. Implementation capacity consists of both the institutional architecture established to make continuous decisions related to LSFF policy and the technical capacity to ensure regulations are adhered to at the processing and retail levels. Across both dimensions, the diagnostic examines three sets of actors: the public sector (including government ministries, agencies, executives, legislators, and bureaucrats), the private sector (such as food producers, processors, and retailers) and civil society (including consumers, research institutes, universities, journalists, and nongovernmental organizations). The remainder of this brief examines these components in more detail and highlights how they can be assessed by researchers and practitioners.
Madagascar assessment
(Brief, 2025-02) Resnick, Danielle
Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) presents a promising intervention in Madagascar, where approximately 75% of the population lives below the poverty line and faces multiple malnutrition burdens. For instance, 39.8% of children under age five are stunted, and 37.8% of reproductive age women suffer from anemia (Development Initiatives 2022). These trends persist despite a long history of nutrition programs and alliances, including the introduction of a mandatory salt iodization program in 1995, several national nutrition policies and action plans since 2004, and the country’s participation in the Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) movement since 2021. Moreover, despite several voluntary standards in place, progress in implementing mandatory LSFF for widely consumed foods remains stalled, lagging behind LSFF in many other African countries.
Real-time media analysis using large language model (LLM) for the top 5 prioritized pests and diseases
(Report, 2024-12-31) Kim, Soonho; Song, Xingyi; Park, Boyeong; Ko, Daeun; Liu, Yanyan
This report presents a comprehensive overview of the real-time media analysis system developed to assess risks associated with the top five prioritized pests and diseases affecting crops. The activity, under Work Package 2 of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Plant Health, utilizes advanced text mining and machine learning techniques, including a Large Language Model (LLM), to process and analyze media articles. Key achievements include the development of an automated media analysis pipeline to monitor pests and diseases globally, the integration of GPT-4 to classify and extract detailed information from news articles, the creation of a public, interactive Crop Disease Dashboard providing real-time insights, the implementation of a cloud-based interface and REST API for user-friendly interaction and integration, and the ongoing refinement of the system based on human verification and feedback. This innovative approach aims to strengthen crop health monitoring and support policymakers and researchers in mitigating the risks posed by crop diseases and pests.
Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: January 2025
(Brief, 2025-01-31) International Food Policy Research Institute; Schmidt, Emily; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu
Download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/fresh-food-price-analysis-papua-new-guinea/ Price trends: Quarterly comparisons (Q4 2024 vs. Q4 2023 and Q4 2022) Sweet potato prices in Q4 of 2024 were 20.4 percent higher in all markets compared to Q4 of 2023 (averaging 1.64 PGK/kg in Q4 of 2023, and 1.79 PGK/kg in 2024). However, sweet potato prices in Kokopo were 13 percent lower in 2024 (1.35 PGK/kg) compared to 2023 Q4 price (1.55/PGK/kg) Rice prices have increased slowly (but remained stable) since 2022. Compared to Q4 2023, rice prices in 2024 were 14 percent higher in Kokopo, Lae and Port Moresby. Vegetable prices, on average, in Q4 of 2024 were 23.6 lower in Goroka compared to Q4 of 2023. Compared to Q4 2022, the price of vegetables, on average, in 2024 were 22.1 percent lower in highland markets. Fruits saw mixed price movements between 2023 and 2024: lemon prices in Q4 2024 were 28.4 percent lower, on average, across all markets.
Capabilities assessment to support food systems transformation towards sustainable healthy diets in Ethiopia
(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Namugumya, Brenda S.; Mengesha, Belay Terefe; Pittore, Katherine; Herens, Marion
Collaborative governance processes are increasingly recognized as critical for normative food systems transformation (FST) globally. For instance, collective action and multistakeholder partnerships is one of the main levers of change stated in Ethiopia’s Food Systems Roadmap. The collaborative processes bring together government, private actors, and citizens in collective forums and networks to engage in long-term, goal-oriented decision making and implementation (Ansell and Gash 2008), for example, change towards sustainable healthy diets and better planetary health for all populations. Forming and maintaining collaborative governance processes entail navigating different challenges attributed to the inherently dynamic nature of such partnerships.
Capabilities assessment to support food systems transformation towards sustainable healthy diets in Viet Nam
(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Namugumya, Brenda S.; Herens, Marion; Kruft, Krista; de Groote, Bram; Tuyen, Huynh Thi Thanh; Huong, Pham Thi Mai; Thanh, Duong Thi
Collaborative governance processes are increasingly recognized as critical for normative food systems transformation (FST) globally. For instance, collective action and multistakeholder partnerships is one of the main levers of change stated in Viet Nam’s “National Action Plan on Food Systems Transformation in Viet Nam towards Transparency, Responsibility, and Sustainability by 2030” (FST-NAP). The collaborative processes bring together government, private actors and citizens in collective forums and networks to engage in long-term goal-oriented decision making and implementation, for example, change towards sustainable healthy diets and better planetary health for all populations (Ansell and Gash 2008). Forming and maintaining collaborative governance processes entail navigating different challenges attributed to the inherently dynamic nature of such partnerships.
Capacity assessment to support food systems transformation towards sustainable healthy diets in Bangladesh: Exploring the capabilities of the SHiFT strategic partners
(Report, 2024-12-31) Namugumya, Brenda S.; Abedin, Jainal; Herens, Marion
Strengthening the multidisciplinary capabilities necessary to accelerate food systems transformation has garnered increased interest over the past decade. A capabilities assessment was done with the Strategic Partners of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation in Bangladesh to understand their abilities to facilitate transformative changes towards sustainable healthy diets. Both Strategic Partners, the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU) and the Bangladesh National Nutrition Council (BNNC), have long histories and well-established structures for collaboration and coordination with diverse stakeholders to realize the nutrition-focused (BNNC) and the food-related (FPMU) ambitions of the Government of Bangladesh. They are engaged in food and/or nutrition policy development, governance of the sectors, and monitoring progress at both national and sub-national levels. Using a capability assessment tool tailored to capturing food systems transformation capabilities at organizational level, the capabilities to deliver results and adapt and self-renew were the highest scored for FPMU. BNNC scored more on the capabilities to achieve coherence and to relate to support food systems transformation higher. However, food systems transformation and sustainable healthy diets emerged as relatively new concepts in both organizations. It was acknowledged that whereas the current mandates of BNNC and FPMU may address issues relevant for sustainable healthy diets, to date this still lacks adequate translation into the current policy development and planning operations and has no intentional prioritization. Both teams underscored the urgency to invest in human resources and institutional capacity strengthening as well as earmarking finances to pursue food systems transformation agendas. Becoming more articulated and explicit about what comprises food systems change, what are sustainable healthy diets and what could be monitored is crucial to support the Strategic Partners to have tangible actions to track. Moving from food system narratives to specific actions will facilitate understanding of what is, or needs to be, monitored.
Measuring employment and job quality in agrifood systems: A comprehensive approach
(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Corong, Erwin; Gautam, Madhur; Martin, Will; Vos, Rob
As the agricultural transformation associated with economic development proceeds, the economic fulcrum of the agrifood system moves from on-farm, or primary, production activities to activities that are increasingly non-farm sector based, such as agro-processing, food services, wholesale and retail trade, etc. Therefore, the traditional measures of farm employment and value-addition (or GDP) come to represent a smaller and smaller share of the total contribution of the agrifood system. Better quantification is important not only to appreciate the transformation within the agrifood system with economic development, but also to inform better policies and strategies to create more and better-quality jobs and accelerate structural transformation in developing economies. There are two broad approaches to measuring the size of the agrifood sector—tracking activity in agrifood sectors; and exploiting the full structure of the economy to assess the direct and indirect employment required to meet final demand for agrifood products. Both approaches are used in an analysis based on the global GTAP database and their results compared. The findings suggest that the final demand approach provides a more comprehensive assessment of the economic activities needed to meet final demand, with agrifood sector accounting for a much larger share of GDP, and the broader agrifood sector generating more and better-quality skilled jobs for both male and female workers. Another key aspect of the relationship is the resources needed to produce non-food products such as biofuels, clothing and leather products that rely on agricultural inputs. Including the resources needed to produce non-food agrifood outputs substantially increases the importance of the agrifood sector in overall activity and employment.
Impact of conflict on employment, income, and household welfare in Sudan
(Brief, 2024-12-31) Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid
Sudan has been embroiled in a high-intensity conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, leading to widespread displacement and an escalating humanitarian crisis. This conflict, centered on Khartoum, an economic hub contributing nearly one-third of Sudan's GDP, has caused unprecedented economic and social upheaval. As of December 2024, over 12 million1 people have been displaced, and fatalities have exceeded 29,6002. Sudan's GDP has contracted sharply, with estimates from the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank projecting declines of 18.3% to 37.5% in 2023 alone, compounded by further drops in 2024. Unemployment has surged from 32% in 2022 to 46% in 2023, with household incomes declining nearly 50% relative to pre-conflict levels. Urban households, especially in Khartoum, have been disproportionately affected due to the destruction of infrastructure and loss of industrial jobs, while rural households face severe disruptions in agriculture and access to essential inputs. The conflict has strained household welfare systems and exacerbated food insecurity, with many families increasingly reliant on remittances and humanitarian aid to meet basic needs. These dynamics underscore the urgent need for effective policy interventions to address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term recovery challenges.
Integrating surface water games into community water management toolkits: A reflection from practitioners in Odisha, India
(Brief, 2024-12-31) Melesse, Mequanint B.; Duche, Vishwambhar; Guvvalavenkata, Anupama; Kumar, Dron; Sanil, Richu; Falk, Thomas; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S.
Water is a vital resource for agricultural production, sustaining ecosystem services, and supporting livelihoods of communities. However, population growth and climate change coupled with unsustainable water use and management are increasingly pushing the limits of water resources. In many parts of India, water scarcity is already posing a threat to agricultural systems and livelihoods due to prolonged droughts and climate variability. Water scarcity is more pronounced in semi-arid and arid dryland regions of India, where the majority of these regions are characterized as high to extreme water stress areas. Effective management and governance of water resources is crucial to sustain productivity of dryland agricultural systems and livelihoods in these regions.
IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, December 2024
(Report, 2025-01-08) International Food Policy Research Institute; Banda, Chimwemwe
Highlights Retail prices of maize increased by 15 percent in December. Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania enter the country, and increased southward. At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and lower than in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.
Increasing retail sales of healthy foods in Ethiopia: Lessons from MSME surveys in two urban areas
(Brief, 2024-11) de Brauw, Alan; Hirvonen, Kalle; Mekonnen, Daniel Ayalew
The food environment represents the place in which demand for food meets supply—consumers purchase foods in the food environment, while retailers of the food consumers purchase represent the end of the value chain. In many countries, the food environment is characterized by a large number of micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) who sell the majority of healthy foods. Ethiopia fits this description; among healthy food groups purchased by at least one-third of customers within a given week, at least 88 percent of consumers making purchases by them from MSMEs (de Brauw and Hirvonen 2024). This note summarizes lessons from a set of surveys conducted among 1686 MSMEs likely to sell healthy foods in woreda 8 of Kolfe Keranyo in Addis Ababa and in Butajira town in central Ethiopia in late 2023. The first survey concentrated on listing all businesses selling food in selected areas of the two sample locations; the second survey then asked detailed questions about the business environment and practices of selected MSMEs. The majority of surveyed MSMEs can be characterized as either kiosks or small shops; the next most common were restaurants, followed by street vendors and juice shops (de Brauw et al. 2024).
Small groceries in Viet Nam
(Brief, 2024-12-31) de Brauw, Alan; The Anh, Dao; Tho, Pham Thi Hanh
The food environment represents the place in which demand for food meets supply—consumers purchase foods in the food environment, while retailers of the food consumers purchase represent the end of the value chain. In many countries, the food environment is undergoing rapid change as economies grow and populations urbanize; a consequence is that a larger share of food consumed is purchased by the end consumer (de Bruin and Holleman 2023). Viet Nam is no different. Viet Nam’s growing and urbanizing economy has, over time, led to a changing food environment. This note focuses on one type of retailer in Viet Nam’s food environment: the small grocery. We define small groceries as stores that are not supermarkets, are not part of a chain, and have a fixed storefront from which they do business on a daily or near daily basis. These stores play a small but important role in Viet Nam’s food environment, particularly in rural areas, and as we will demonstrate, almost all these groceries sell at least one component of a sustainable healthy diet. As a result, what they sell could help play a role in improving the diets of Viet Nam’s population. To focus on learning more about small groceries, this note makes use of two datasets. One is a listing exercise that enumerated all the businesses selling food in sampled wards of three districts: Dong Da, in urban Ha Noi; Dong Anh, which is in peri-urban Ha Noi; and Moc Chau, which is a rural district northwest of Ha Noi. The second survey used the first survey as a sample frame, and was specifically designed to learn about the constraints and opportunities that micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) face in considering selling more healthy foods (Ceballos et al. 2023). Small groceries are one type of business in the food environment, and all can be considered MSMEs.
Impact of a slaughterhouse hygiene intervention in western Kenya
(Brief, 2024-12-31) Ambler, Kate; Cook, Elizabeth A.J.; Hoffmann, Vivian; Kiarie, Alice; Otoigo, Lilian; Wagner, Julia
Adherence to strict hygiene standards in slaughterhouses is critical for ensuring food safety and protecting workers from zoonotic disease. The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) conducted a study to evaluate the impact of low-cost interventions on hygiene practices in slaughterhouses in western Kenya.
Stakeholder feedback on a slaughterhouse hygiene intervention in western Kenya
(Brief, 2024-12-31) Otoigo, Lilian; Jasada, Ijudai; Hoffmann, Vivian; Ambler, Kate; Kiarie, Alice; Cook, Elizabeth A.J.
The intervention implemented evaluated through the Improving Hygiene Practices in Slaughterhouses in Western Kenya study (Ambler, et al., 2024) aimed to address poor hygiene practices in slaughterhouses, which contribute to foodborne illnesses and unsafe meat. Conducted in 140 slaughterhouses across 6 counties in Western Kenya, the intervention focused on training workers, provision of basic hygiene equipment, and the use of monetary incentives to improve compliance with recommended hygiene practices. After the intervention period, key informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted with stakeholders including six County Directors of Veterinary Services (CDVSs), nine sub-county veterinary Officers (SCVOs), one Public Health Officer (PHO), and ten meat inspectors (MIs). This report summarizes findings from the KIIs regarding perspectives on the intervention, sustainability, challenges with implementation, and provides a basis for recommendations on refining and scaling up or this approach.
Assessing the role of food MSMEs in providing employment for women and youth in Ethiopia
(Working Paper, 2024-11) Mekonnen, Daniel Ayalew; de Brauw, Alan
This paper analyzes the employment characteristics of food micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), using survey data collected from 1,686 food vendors in Addis Ababa and Butajira, Ethiopia. The data suggest that 74 percent of the enterprises were formal or had a tax identification number. The average number of workers across enterprises was 2.3, which varies between 1.2 as in the case of street sellers and 5.3 as in the case of restaurants. Among enterprises with an additional worker besides the owner, only about 32 percent of them had part-time workers. The share of youth in part-time and full-time employment was 43 percent and 28 percent, respectively. Adults especially women constituted the majority of both full-time and part-time workers. More than 53 percent of the enterprises were owned and operated by women, but the significant majority of them were one-person enterprises, suggesting that women-owned enterprises are less likely to create additional jobs. In fact, results from the logistic regressions suggest that the odds of women-owned enterprises employing anyone were between 0.53 to 0.62 times the odds of men-owned enterprises. Only 17 percent of the enterprises had outstanding loans at the time of the survey. However, the relationship between loan uptake status and the number of workers was not strong. Results also indicate that the number of workers was positively and significantly associated with the size of enterprise revenue but the relationship with profitability was not strong, possibly because the size of profits per worker was quite low. To put this in perspective, the size of profits per worker (for example, for street sellers who are mostly self-employed and rarely take their wages into account during cost calculations) was less than the cost of a healthy diet. Overall, while the food MSMEs in the study sites may have the potential to deliver food at lower cost and contribute to gender and social inclusion through self-employment, the scope of food MSMEs, especially those run by women, to generate additional employment appears to be limited.

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