IFPRI Project Papers

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/129232

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 3010

Community and household shocks and coping strategies: Findings from the eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (July – December 2024)
(Working Paper, 2025-06-12) van Asselt, Joanna; Aung, Zin Wai
The eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was conducted between October and December 2024. This round follows seven previous rounds carried out since December 2021 and reflects conditions during July – December 2024. This report presents updated insights on the conflict, climatic, service, and economic shocks households faced, as well as the coping mechanisms they employ in response. Security conditions were difficult throughout the recall period. Seventeen percent of households reported feeling insecure in their communities, while 19 percent reported low levels of trust. Crime and violence affected 17 percent and 8 percent of communities, respectively. Insecurity remained highest in Kayah, Chin, and Kachin, while Rakhine became more insecure and isolated. Lawlessness was also widespread: 17 percent of households reported gambling and 14 percent reported drug use in their communities, especially in urban areas. Thirty-five percent of households express concerns over conscription, particularly in urban centers like Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw, as well as states like Shan and Rakhine. Additionally, 13 percent of respondents reported feeling unsafe while moving around and carrying out everyday tasks in their communities, and 3 percent reported risks of kidnapping. Climatic shocks further compounded hardship. Nineteen percent of farming households experienced climatic shocks, with severe flooding reported by 45 percent of households in Kayin, 35 percent in Kayah, and 36 percent in Rakhine. Intense winds affected 14 percent of households in Chin. These events, like conflict, have contributed to the destruction of homes, infrastructure, and services, further deepening vulnerability. Service disruptions further undermine wellbeing. Among households connected to the national power grid, 78 percent experienced daily power cuts lasting at least one hour. In urban Rakhine, households face up to 16 hours of outages daily. Internet access was limited for 55 percent of households, with near-total internet blackouts in Rakhine and Kachin, and over 30 percent without access in Sagaing and Kayah. Although school enrollment and access to medical services rose modestly, it remained low in conflict-affected areas, especially in Rakhine. Economic pressures continue to mount. Food inflation reached 39 percent between September and December 2024. Prices rose sharply for leafy greens, potatoes, and chicken. Although rice prices also increased, their contribution to overall food inflation was the lowest since 2022, at 19 percent. Petrol prices rose by 7 percent in the quarter and 54 percent year-on-year. Non-food essentials such as soap (25 percent increase), paracetamol (26 percent), and toothpaste (128 percent) also saw steep price increases. Households have resorted to increasingly desperate measures to cope. By late 2024, only 20 percent of households had any cash savings or bank deposits – just 7 percent in Kayah. Migration remains a key strategy, with about 10 percent of households reporting a migrant in Q4 2024. Borrowing played a central role: 64 percent of loans came from informal sources like friends and relatives, and were largely used to cover food, health, and daily expenses. Amid these challenges, 52 percent of households reported giving to social services and one in four provided direct assistance to vulnerable neighbors or local food initiatives. However, if shocks continue to intensify, households’ ability to cope may further erode, leaving many without the resources needed to meet even basic needs.
Tanzania: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development
(Brief, 2025-06-09) Aragie, Emerta; Thurlow, James; Xu, Valencia Wenqian; Jones, Eleanor
In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Tanzania’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in extension and advisory services on livestock are shown to be the most cost-effective in expanding agrifood GDP and jobs. We also find that targeting SME processors generates stronger impacts on jobs, while extension services in agronomy are particularly cost-effective in fostering growth. Similarly, investing in extension services in agronomy and livestock, along with support to SME processors, yields significant gains in social outcomes, though with varying effects on poverty, hunger, and diet quality. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when extreme production shocks occur.
IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, May 2025
(Report, 2025-06-05) International Food Policy Research Institute; Benson, Anderson
Highlights Retail prices of maize bottomed out in May. Prices rose in southern Malawi despite continued imports. Maize retailed below the government-mandated price in 25 out of 26 monitored markets.
Country profile – Ethiopia: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages
(Brief, 2025-06-02) Bealem, Tigist Endashaw; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Thomas, Timothy S.; Zerfu, Taddese Alemu; Bryan, Elizabeth
This brief provides an overview of Ethiopia’s climate risks, gender dynamics, and nutrition challenges and includes discussion of how these issues are intertwined, an overview of the policy landscape, and recommendations for strengthening the integration of gender, climate change and nutrition in the country. With a population of approximately 126.5 million people as of 2023, Ethiopia ranks as the second most populous country in Africa and stands out as one of the region's fastest-growing economies, with an economic growth rate of almost 10% per year over the last 15 years (World Bank, 2024). Ethiopia’s agrifood system accounted for 48% of Ethiopia’s national GDP and 77.2% of employment in 2019. Pri mary agriculture alone contributed more than 1/3 of GDP and 2/3 of employment, while other parts of the agrifood system such as processing, trade, and input supply contributed 12.8 percent to GDP and 9.4 percent to employment (Diao et al., 2023). The sector is dominated by smallholder farmers who cultivate a diverse array of crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, fruits, and vegetables (Dawid & Mohammed, 2021). Women make up more than 40% of the agriculture labor force and head approximately 25% of all farming households in the country (World Bank, 2019).
Restoring livelihoods after the 2025 Myanmar earthquake: Pre-crisis baseline for recovery planning
(Working Paper, 2025-05-30) Masias, Ian; van Asselt, Joanna; Minten, Bart
On March 28, 2025, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar, causing extensive destruction and compounding an already fragile humanitarian situation driven by conflict, economic instability, and prior natural disasters. This assessment examines pre-earthquake livelihood conditions across the most severely affected areas—Mandalay, Sagaing, Bago, Nay Pyi Taw, and Shan State—to provide a baseline for recovery planning focused on restoring economic resilience. Prior to the earthquake, household livelihoods varied significantly across the earthquake hit regions. Farming and livestock production dominated in Shan and Sagaing, where the earthquake primarily affected rural areas, whereas non-farm businesses and salaried employment were more common in Mandalay and Nay Pyi Taw, where the earthquake impacted predominately urban areas. Wage labor, both farm and non-farm, supported a significant share of households, but was associated with the highest rates of income-based poverty, reflecting the insecurity of casual and seasonal employment. Income-based poverty was widespread, affecting 69 percent of households in earthquake-affected areas.
Country profile – Nigeria: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages
(Brief, 2025-05-21) Iraoya, Augustine Okhale; Balana, Bedru; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Bryan, Elizabeth
This country brief supports GCAN's goal of integrating gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policy by providing policymakers, program officers, and researchers with an analysis of Nige ria’s current situation and policy objectives in these areas. A recent study from Andam et al. (2023) underscores the vital role of Nigeria’s agrifood system in the country's economy. In 2019, Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at $469.3 billion, supported by a workforce of 66.8 million people (Andam et al. 2023). The agrifood sector made a substantial contribution, generating $175.3 billion in GDP and providing employment for 41.9 million individuals. This sector encompasses both primary agriculture and off-farm activities, including processing, trade, transport, food services, and input supply. Primary agriculture alone contributed $103.3 billion to GDP and employed 32.2 million people. Off-farm agrifood activities contributed approximately 40 percent of the agrifood GDP and 20 percent of agrifood employment (Andam et al. 2023).
Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: April 2025
(Report, 2025-05-20) Siddig, Khalid; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala; Rakhy, Tarig
This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities in Sudan during February, March, and April 2025. It covers cereals, vegetables, animal products, and essential goods such as cooking oil, sugar, agricultural inputs (fertilizers and seeds), fuels, and exchange rates. The analysis reveals notable spatial and temporal disparities in prices, availability, and quality across Sudan’s 18 states. Cereal prices showed mixed patterns: wheat prices rose from February to March before declining in April, while sorghum and millet prices fluctuated. Wheat flour prices remained relatively stable. Spatial disparities were particularly evident for wheat and wheat flour. Traders consistently reported stable availability and quality for most cereals. Vegetable prices varied significantly. Tomato prices remained stable, potato prices were consistently higher than other vegetables, and onion prices declined steadily before rising slightly at the end of April. Spatial and temporal differences in prices were also prominent. Meat prices continued to increase steadily, while fish prices fluctuated in line with availability. Egg prices rose gradually, while milk prices, after some initial fluctuations, declined steadily in March and April. Among agricultural inputs, wheat seed prices remained stable, whereas local sorghum seed prices rose consistently. Fertilizer prices fluctuated: urea prices experienced a modest increase fol lowed by a decline, while DAP prices rose sharply in April. Fuel prices demonstrated both temporal and spatial variability. Prices were notably higher in the parallel market, while diesel and petrol prices in the regular market were more stable, though regional differences persisted. Finally, the exchange rate analysis showed a continued premium in the parallel market, underscoring persistent foreign currency supply constraints.
Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: March 2025
(Report, 2025-05-19) Siddig, Khalid; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala
Sudan’s market systems continue to face severe disruptions due to ongoing conflict, political instability, and economic disruptions. These challenges have led to volatile prices, limited availability of essential commodities, and rising food and fuel costs, especially in conflict-affected areas. Insecurity, infrastructure damage, and transport disruptions further exacerbate price disparities, making key goods increasingly unaffordable for vulnerable populations. To monitor these dynamics, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is implementing a nationwide market monitoring initiative covering 36 markets, two in each of Sudan’s 18 states. The initiative tracks prices, availability, and quality of essential commodities, monitors exchange rate movements, and gathers qualitative insights from market actors. Each month, data is collected in two rounds: the first during the first two weeks, and the second during the last two weeks. In each round, five merchants per market are interviewed using structured questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. This fortnightly approach enables timely and consistent tracking of market trends.
Synopsis: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development in Rwanda
(Brief, 2025-05-16) Aragie, Emerta A.; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Xu, Valencia Wenqian
The study systematically ranks investment options in the agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness across multiple development outcomes. Investments in SME processors and traders and livestock extension are the most cost-effective for promoting agrifood GDP growth and employment. SMEs and livestock services together with seed systems and credit access contribute positively to social outcomes (poverty, undernourishment, and diet). The analysis finds a trade-off between economic gains and environmental outcomes— higher GDP effects often come with greater environmental costs. The Rwandan case demonstrates a slight shift in the relative cost-effectiveness of investments when accounting for historical climatic risks. The study emphasizes the need for data-driven investment planning, climate-aware policies, and balancing short-term gains with long-term sustainability objectives.
Khatlon region’s agriculture sector development trends
(Working Paper, 2025-05-14) Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur
This study examines recent agriculture sector development trends in Khatlon region of Tajikistan and its contribution to development of the sector between 2010 and 2021. The findings of the study show that the development of the crops sector in the region was strongly intensive, except sluggish intensive growth for cotton and extensive growth for potato. Further deep dive is needed to figure out the source of growth, however, lack of disaggregated data prevents us from doing so in this analysis. To understand the drivers of recent growth the farmers survey needs to be conducted. Unlike the crop sector, the livestock sector in Khatlon region has experienced mainly extensive growth, with surge up in cattle and small ruminants’ population rather than productivity increase. The livestock sector faces several challenges such as severe degradation of pastures due to poor pasture management system, and increased pressure on pasture due to rapidly growing livestock numbers. In addition, the sector is affected by climate change and at the same time accelerates the ongoing process of climate change due to greenhouse gases, especially methane emissions. In sum, the region now plays a vital role in meeting Tajikistan's food security needs and income generation for rural households, however, further sustainable growth of the sector requires addressing challenges, increasing investments into the sector and promoting CSA practices (Table 1A in Appendix).
Unlocking agricultural efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis of smallholder farmers in Rwanda
(Working Paper, 2025-05-12) Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Warner, James; Missiame, Arnold Kwesi
Agriculture is central to Rwanda's economy, supporting the livelihood of about 70% of the population and contributing significantly to GDP. Smallholder farmers face many production challenges such as limited use of modern inputs, low productivity, and vulnerability to climate change. Despite efforts like the Crop Intensification Program and the Smart Nkunganire System, which aim to en hance access to resources, agricultural productivity remains suboptimal for Rwanda smallholder farmers. This study seeks to identify specific sources of technical inefficiencies among smallholder farmers, focusing on the total value of farmer’s crop output. By using stochastic frontier analysis, a robust quantitative method for separating inefficiencies and random shocks, the study assessed the overall technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda and identified the key factors influencing crop output value. The analysis reveals that fertilizer use, pesticide application, labor, seed use, and land size are key drivers of crop output value. This research further indicates that farmers operate at only 45% of their potential productivity, given the same level of input and technology, highlighting substantial room for efficiency improvements to reach the optimal output value frontier. Furthermore, additional analysis emphasizes the critical role of socioeconomic factors in shaping technical efficiency. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to optimize resource utilization, streamline labor allocation and strengthen access to extension services and government initiatives aimed at boosting agricultural production value. These strategies can substantially improve technical efficiency, enabling farmers to achieve optimal crop output values and advancing Rwanda's agricultural development objectives.
Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: April 2025
(Brief, 2025-05-12) International Food Policy Research Institute; Hayoge, Glen; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu
Download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/fresh-food-price-analysis-papua-new-guinea Compared to Q4 2024, average prices of staples across the PNG markets decreased by 15 percent from January to March 2025 The price of a 1-kilogram bag of imported rice remained relatively stable between January and February 2025. Compared to Q4 2024, the average 1-kg bag of rice price increased by 6 percent in the first quarter of 2025. Compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 price trends of fresh vegetables were mixed across commodities. In Port Moresby, prices of English cabbage, carrot and choko-tips were 12 percent lower, while aibika and capsicum were 24 percent higher than January and February 2024. Compared to Q4 2024, prices of lemon, orange, pawpaw and pineapple in Goroka and Kokopo decreased on average by 15 percent in Q1 2025.
IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, April 2025
(Report, 2025-04) International Food Policy Research Institute; Benson, Anderson
Retail prices of maize fell by 21% in April due to the arrival of newly harvested maize on the market. Relatively cheap imports from all three neighboring countries contributed to the decline in maize prices. Maize retailed below the government-mandated price in 21 out of 26 monitored markets.
Understanding women’s time use in farming communities: Insights from the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index
(Brief, 2025-05-06) Abdu, Aishat; Malapit, Hazel J.; Go, Ara
Agricultural programs targeting women may increase women’s work burdens and shift the distribution of work between productive and reproductive tasks. Complementary information on women’s sense of control over their time highlights additional benefits of agricultural programs beyond changes in women’s workloads. Despite program interventions, gender norms often persist, affecting how communities perceive work intensity and division of responsibilities between men and women. The relationship between women’s time use and nutrition is complex and interacts with mediating factors, requiring a multifaceted approach to program design and evaluation. Evidence linking time use data to nonfarm work is lacking, highlighting the need to leverage WEAI time use data to fill this critical gap.
Understanding the gender gap in the Colombian agricultural sector
(Working Paper, 2025-04-30) Rueda-Gallardo, Jorge; Mateus, Daniel Vergara; Piñeiro, Valeria; Escalante, Luis Enrique
We live in a complex world facing uncertainties, crises-including conflict and extreme weather- and a global economic slowdown. These challenges highlight the importance of understanding the agricultural sector's contributions to the economy and designing effective policies to support its resilience and growth. Within this context, examining the gender gap in the Colombian agricultural sector takes on even greater relevance. The sector plays a crucial role in the country’s economy, contributing 6.4% of the total value-added in 2019 and providing 82.1% of agricultural employment in rural areas. However, a significant gender gap exists, with women facing disadvantages in terms of participation, wages, and income generation. Women's participation in the agricultural workforce is significantly lower than men's. In 2019, only 6.1% of employed women worked in agriculture, compared to 21.6% of men, creating a gap of 15.4 percentage points. This disparity is the largest among all the economic sectors analyzed. This lower participation translates into an unequal distribution of labor income. While the agricultural sector accounts for 11.3% of the total labor income for men, it contributes only 2.6% for women. Women in agriculture also earn considerably less than men. The average salary for women in the sector was USD 117.4, while men earned USD 168.7, a 43.7% difference. These disparities are persistent across different areas and qualification levels. To promote a more equitable and resilient agricultural sector, it is essential to understand and address the underlying causes of this gender gap. This paper aims to comprehensively analyze the gender gap in Colombian agriculture by examining its various dimensions and identifying potential solutions. By highlighting the disparities in participation, wages, and income generation across different areas and qualification levels, this paper aims to inform the design of policies and interventions that promote gender equality, empower women in agriculture, and enhance the sector's overall contribution to the country's social and economic development.
Excessive food price variability early warning system: Incorporating fertilizer prices
(Brief, 2025-04-28) Yao, Feng; Hernandez, Manuel A.
Low adoption of improved land management practices, including fertilizer use, is one of the main factors for low agricultural productivity in many developing countries. Rising agricultural productivity in many countries has been accompanied by greater fertilizer use. For example, sub-Saharan African countries, characterized by low agricultural productivity, have a very low fertilizer application rate, averaging 10 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) of nutrients of arable land, compared to 288 kg/ha in a high-income country (Hernandez and Torero, 2011). Considering the essential role that agriculture plays in the rural economy of many developing countries, many policies have been implemented to encourage sustainable fertilizer adoption. The effectiveness of different mechanisms remains though a topic of discussion. Hernandez and Torero (2013) and Hernandez and Torero (2018), for instance, note that fertilizer prices are generally higher in more concentrated markets at the global and local level. The authors argue that better understanding the dynamics of fertilizer prices in international markets can help in designing policies that promote sustainable fertilizer use in developing countries, which are increasingly dependent on imported fertilizer.
Assessing agrifood system growth outcomes in Tajikistan
(Brief, 2025-04-25) Khakimov, Parviz; Diao, Xinshen; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur
On March 1, 2023, the Government of Tajikistan adopted a new sectoral program, “Agrifood System and Sustainable Development Program,” for the period up to 2030. The program defined six priorities, namely (1) strengthening institutions, (2) enabling physical infrastructure, (3) creating an agriculture extension system, (4) ensuring food and nutrition security, (5) ensuring food safety and, veterinary and plant protection, and (6) establishing effectively functioning value chains. The Program aims to ensure sustainable development of the sector and enhance its competitiveness through structural and institutional reforms, by boosting sector productivity, creating new jobs, and ensuring food security. To inform the policy by providing empirical evidence, in this brief, first we assess and compare diverse contributions of different agrifood value chains to broad development outcomes, second, we assess the effectiveness of agricultural productivity-led growth across agrifood value chain groups for achieving multiple development outcomes (economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets) and inclusive agrifood system transformation in Tajikistan.
Structural changes and drivers of agrifood system growth in Tajikistan
(Brief, 2025-04-25) Khakimov, Parviz; Diao, Xinshen; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur
The agricultural sector accounted for one-third and one-fourth of total GDP in 2011 in 2022, respectively. In 2022 compared to 2011, both primary and off farm agricultural GDPs dropped, respectively by 13.2 and 3 percentage points, while primary agriculture employment share fell by 10.4 percentage points. The domestic market played a vital role in the recent agrifood system (AFS) growth, and a sizable portion of locally produced agrifood products was able to meet domestic demand. Though agroprocessing an important off-farm component of the AFS, grew more rapidly and thus contributed the most to off farm AFS growth, the aggregate size of off-farm components of the AFS did not increase to match with the structural change in the broader economy.
Tajikistan’s agrifood system structure
(Brief, 2025-04-25) Khakimov, Parviz; Diao, Xinshen; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur
Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS) accounted for 34.7 percent of Tajikistan’s national GDP and 58 percent of employment in 2022. Primary agriculture alone contributed one-quarter of total GDP and 54.9 percent of employment, while the four off-farm components of the AFS contributed about 10 percent of GDP and 3.2 percent of employment. The share of employment in primary agriculture in total employment in AFS (AgEmp+) is huge, 94 percent. The off-farm components of the AFS therefore accounted for close to 30 percent of AgGDP+ and only 5 percent of AgEMP+. Though Tajikistan is an agrarian economy, it imports a lot of foods, and the shares of imports in the country’s total merchandise imports are consistently high, around 22 percent between 2016 and 2022. For the same period, food exports as a percentage of total merchandise exports were just 3 percent (World Bank 2023). Agrifood imports also grew more rapidly, increasing by a multiple of 16 between 2000 and 2023, while exports only doubled over the same period (Khakimov, et al. 2024).
IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, March 2025
(Report, 2025-03) International Food Policy Research Institute
Highlights MARCH 2025 Retail prices of maize declined on average by 25 percent in March thanks to the arrival of newly harvested maize on the market. The depreciation of the Malawi kwacha against neighboring currencies at the informal exchange rates used for most cross-border maize trade slowed down in March, which further eased pressure on prices. Imports of old maize from Tanzania were increasingly complemented by new maize coming in from Mozambique and southern Zambia. By the end of March, imports dominated exports at nearly all border crossings.

Browse

Recent Submissions