CIP Science Goal: Crop Improvement
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Item Digital Revolution in Farmer Fields: VarScout Unveils Kenya's Varietal Landscape – The Case of Potato(Working Paper, 2025-01) Gatto, M.; Borus, D.; Malit, J.; Kihiu, E.; Barker, I.; Echessa, L.; Soto-Torres, J.; Meyer, A.This paper reports on data collected through VarScout, a digital crowdsourcing tool, to monitor varietal adoption, turnover, seed use, and yields. Key findings for the case of potato in Kenya include: (1) Shangi is the dominant variety, covering 73% of the area, followed by Steven (7%) and Sherekea (6%); (2) the weighted average varietal age is 9.3 years, with newer varieties performing better; (3) 19.5% of farmers use clean seed, with higher adoption in Nakuru (21.5%) compared to Bungoma (1.5%); (4) farmers using clean seed achieve 1.5 t/ha higher yields than those using saved seed. The study demonstrates the utility of VarScout for cost-effective data collection, while highlighting the need for further methodological improvements and ground-truthing. The findings underscore the significant impact of CIP's breeding efforts, with over 50% of the pedigree of key popular varieties linked to CIP's genebank. The paper provides insights to inform seed system interventions and guide future breeding priorities in Kenya.Item Effect of Vine Harvesting Frequency on Sweetpotato Root Yield Components and Gross Income in Southern Mozambique(Journal Article, 2025-01-13) Munda, E.; Muassabo, R.; Francisco, E.; Da Gloria Samuel, C.Sweetpotato is widely produced by smallholder farmers in Mozambique with average yield of 7.3 t/ha. One of the challenges in sweetpotato production system is inadequate seed during the rainy season resulting in low productivity. The few sweetpotato seed multipliers (Decentralized vine multipliers (DVMs)) resort to several vine harvesting frequency to meet farmers seed requirements at the peak of demand. Repeated vine harvesting contributes to sweetpotato root yield reduction. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effect of vine harvesting frequency on sweetpotato yield components. Three experiments were set up in three farmers’ fields in Vilankulos district inhambane province in Southern Mozambique in the 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 cropping seasons with a sweetpotato variety Esther. The experiments were set up in randomized complete block design with three replications in each farmer’s field. The treatments were no vine harvesting (control), harvesting only once at 8 weeks after planting (WAP), harvesting twice at 8 and 12 WAP, and harvesting three times at 8, 12, and 16WAP. Total storage root yield, number of roots per plant, root diameter, and root length were measured in each treatment. Results show that storage root yield was significantly higher in control (22.1 t/ha) and harvesting once (17.8 t/ha) compared to harvesting twice (11.8 t/ha) and three times (9 t/ha) (P < 0.05). Additional harvesting from one to two resulted in 33.7% yield decline. Vine harvesting twice resulted in 46.6% storage root yield decline compared to the control treatment. The same observation was noted for the number of roots per plant, where five roots per plant were observed both in no harvesting and harvesting once treatments. A 40% decline in the number of roots per plant was observed when vine harvesting frequency was increased from one to two. No treatment effect was observed on the root diameter. Increasing vine harvesting frequency from one to two or one to three resulted in a 14.7% income loss from sales of both vines and roots. Vine multipliers are recommended to harvest vines for use as planting material only once if they want to benefit from the roots for consumption or commercialization.Item Adoption of Orange-Fleshed Sweetpotato (OFSP) technologies in Southern Ethiopia(Journal Article, 2025-01-16) Tenaye, A.; Gebeyehu, S.; Cherinet, M.Addressing malnutrition and vitamin A deficiency in Ethiopia necessitates innovative, food-based solutions such as biofortified crops. This study assesses the adoption rates of Orange-Fleshed Sweetpotato (OFSP) and examines the factors influencing adoption among project participants, non-participants, and counterfactual households in the former Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ (SNNPs) region. Primary data were collected in 2023 through a survey of 990 households across six districts, and logistic regression was employed to identify key determinants of adoption. The findings reveal OFSP adoption rates of 53% among participants, 56% among non-participants, and 42% among counterfactual households, with significant variation across regions. Factors positively influencing adoption include household education, proximity to health centers and OFSP multiplication sites, frequent extension contact, and access to agricultural services. This study underscores the potential of newly released OFSP varieties to enhance food security and resilience in malnutrition-prone areas. The comparable adoption rates between participants and non-participants highlight significant spillover effects from long-term interventions, suggesting widespread community benefits. However, the limited adoption of complementary OFSP package components points to the need for enhanced training programs and streamlined technology dissemination strategies. These findings contribute to understanding how biofortified crops can be scaled effectively to improve food security and nutrition, offering valuable insights for policy and program design.Item Ny fisafidianana karazana vomanga sy ny toetra mampiavak azy(Manual, 2025-01) International Potato CenterItem The contribution of potato to food security, income generation, employment, and the national economy of Ethiopia(Report, 2025-01) Tadesse, B.; Gebeyehu, S.; Kirui, L.; Maru, J.Item Potato seed systems in Madagascar(Brief, 2025-02) Wauters, P.; Rasoloniaina, B.; Rukundo, P.Item Seed Requirement Estimation (SRE) Tool(Presentation, 2024-12) Rajendran, S.; Ogero, K.; Namanda, S.; Low, Jan W.; McEwan, M.Item A Machine Learning Approach for Estimating sweetpotato Cultivation Areas in Uganda(Brief, 2024-12) Rajendran, S.Item Enhancing the Seed Sector Decision-Making with the Business Investment Decision (BID) Tool – a brief on BID tool(Brief, 2024-12) International Potato CenterItem Analysis of return on investment of sweetpotato seed system interventions in Uganda(Working Paper, 2024-12) Feukeng, F.; Rajendran, S.; Otieno, D.; Okello, J.J.It is becoming increasingly important for researchers to document the economic and social benefits of new agricultural technologies and efforts made in the research and development of such technologies. This is necessitated by scarcity of financial resources and the increasing pressure from different stakeholders for research and development to generate welfare improvement changes at the smallholder farmer level in sub-Saharan Africa. The current study analyzed the economic impact of the seed system interventions implemented in Uganda by the International Potato Center through two projects: Development and Delivery of Biofortified Crops at scale (DDBIO) and Genetic Advances and Innovative Seed Systems for Sweetpotato (SWEETGAINS). The projects received US$1.463 million and US$ 15 million from the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development, the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The economic surplus and cost-benefit analysis approaches were utilized to estimate aggregate economic benefits and return on investment. Results revealed that during the 23-year lifespan, for every dollar invested, US$ 88.07 was generated for a 6% discount rate, while at a 12% discount rate, every dollar invested generated US$ 82.88 in return. Similarly, the net present value at 6% was US$ 1,626.38 million, while at 12%, it was US$ 1,729.78 million. The overall internal rate of return (IRR) was found to be 50%. Thus, the investments generated positive returns and should be upscaled.Item Machine Learning Approach for Prediction of Area Under Cultivation and Production for Vegetatively Propagated Crops(Working Paper, 2024-12) Ahishakiye, E.; Ogero, K.; Namada, S.; Rajendran, S.Vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs) such as cassava, sweet potatoes, and bananas, are a key component in ensuring food security for the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In agricultural planning and seed system management, it is essential to accurately predict the area under cultivation, production volumes, and yield rates of these crops. Traditional forecasting methods have fallen short in capturing the complexity of VPC production, as there are nonlinear relationships and dynamic environmental factors at play. This paper overcomes these shortcomings by using machine learning models to enhance the forecasting accuracy using data from the Seed Requirement Estimation (SRE) tool. We applied Random Forest, AdaBoost, and a Stacked Ensemble Model to forecast the area under cultivation and production volume in tons. After hyperparameter tuning, the Stacked Model performed better, yielding R² values of 0.8260 for area prediction and 0.7883 for production forecasting, outperforming the individual models. The results reflect the potential of the ensemble learning model to improve the accuracy of agricultural forecasts. The study emphasizes the role that advanced predictive models can play in enhancing agricultural policy decisions based on data, optimizing seed distribution, and ensuring food security in VPC-dependent regions.Item Sweetpotato and Cassava Seed Requirement Estimates (SRE) Workshop at Geita, Tanzania(Report, 2024-12) International Potato CenterItem Farmers’ demand for quality and nutritionally enhanced sweetpotato planting material: Evidence from experimental auctions in Rwanda(Working Paper, 2024-12) Okumu, B.; Rajendran, S.; Okello, J.J.; Maredia, M.; Ward, P.; Gatto, M.; Nshimiyimana, J.; Kilwinger, F.; Sindi, K.; David, S.In sub-Saharan Africa, most farmers source sweetpotato vines from neighboring farmers or their plots during the previous season. However, in the absence of “clean” vines produced with good agricultural 13 practices, farmer-to-farmer vine exchanges and own-saved vines tend to encourage the accumulation of pests and diseases that ultimately affect yields. Despite this, the demand for nutritionally rich variety and biofortified crop orange-fleshed sweetpotato (OFSP) is limited due to farmers’ unfamiliarity with the product and its novel attributes. In this study, we investigate demand for quality sweetpotato vine and 17 nutritional attributes of the crop using a second price experimental auction approach to determine the 18 premium price, farmers are willing to pay for these attributes and investigate drivers of market demand. 19 The study revealed that in the absence of information on the source of vines, maturity and resistance to 20 diseases, farmers are willing to pay a premium of about 35 Rwandan Francs for high-quality vines sourced 21 from the trained seed multipliers. However, with the provision of information on the source of vines, 22 maturity, and resistance to diseases of the vines, the premium price increases significantly to 133.71 23 Rwandan francs and to 107.22 Rwandan Francs after the provision of visual information depicting the 24 performance of the vines in demonstration plots. The premium price also increases significantly for vines 25 sourced from neighbors to about 74.35 Rwandan francs, which further increases to 151.53 Rwandan francs 26 when nutrition information is provided to the farmers. It is therefore evident that the provision of 27 information and demonstration of the performance of the crops is important for the adoption of improved 28 variety and increases the effective demand.Item Scenarios of seed purchase versus free sourcing and motivations for seed source choice. The case of sweetpotato in Uganda(Report, 2024-12) Namirumi, J.; Kilwinger, F.; Ynte van, D.; Rajendran, S.Farmers traditionally source sweetpotato planting materials from various outlets. Their decisions on sourcing and purchasing of sweetpotato planting materials are influenced by a complex interplay of factors that are important in the designing of effective seed system interventions. Nonetheless, most studies primarily focus on the adoption of improved seeds and use of formal seed systems. They often emphasize correlations and thereby overlook the broader goals and motivations driving farmers' choices. This study applied economic psychology principles through a means-end chain (MEC) analysis to investigate attributes farmers' associate with different sweetpotato seed sources, the perceived benefits of these attributes, and the personal values driving their decision-making processes. Data used was data collected using a combination of scenario elicitation, attribute elicitation, laddering interviews, and analyzed using descriptive and MEC analyses. Results reveal that compared to farmers who freely source sweetpotato seed, farmers who purchase sweetpotato seed are more involved in farmer groups and training programs. They source information from formal sources like research institutes unlike their counterparts who rely more on community networks and publicly accessible information. While introduction of new varieties is a common circumstance for purchasing seed, financial constraints lead many farmers to rely on free sources within their communities. The Hierarchical Value Map (HVM) reveals that farmers’ motivations for seed source choice are shaped by both immediate agricultural objectives and long-term aspirations for financial security, health and community cohesion. Farmers prioritize attributes such as “clean seed”, “vigorous vines”, and “timely delivery” linking these to immediate goals like achieving high yields, reducing costs and expanding farms. Consequently, contributing to economic benefits like increased income and financial stability and leading to essential outcomes such as health, food security and nutrition as well as strong social ties fostered by social practices like vine sharing. The sweetpotato seed business can therefore thrive by addressing core needs including high quality, accessibility and socially supportive seed systems delivering not only economic returns but also contributing to household nutrition, health and community resilience.Item Business Investment Decision (BID) Tool for strengthening seed business(Working Paper, 2024-12) Jayanth, R.; Rajendran, S.The seed sector is critical to agricultural productivity, yet entrepreneurs in this space face significant challenges, including limited financial management skills, operational inefficiencies, financial constraints, and lack of market reach. These issues are compounded by the reliance on ad-hoc, manual processes for decision-making. To address these challenges, this report introduces the Business Investment Decision (BID) tool, a comprehensive digital platform designed to empower seed-sector entrepreneurs and businesses. The BID tool offers structured formats for financial planning, investment analysis, and business growth, enabling users to make informed decisions. Currently available in Excel and web-based formats, with plans for a desktop version, the tool includes modules for business background, business environment, financial management, budgeting, valuation, risk management, and more. Its target users include small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the seed sector, as well as businesses in other industries at various stages of development. The tool has been validated through applications in diverse settings, including RTB EAGEL in Nairobi and Potato ARC Technology in India. Potential benefits of the BID tool include simplified business planning, ease of use for beginners, the ability to raise funds, and enhanced strategic decision-making. Future development plans include expanding the web version, integrating artificial intelligence for industry comparisons and strategy formulation, incorporating real-time data, and enabling seamless integration with accounting systems. Keywords Business Investment Decision (BID) tool, financial management, decision-making frameworks, business growth, investment analysis, digital platform, operational efficiency, financial planning, budgeting, risk management.Item Operational Business Plan for Root, Tuber and Banana East Africa Germplasm Exchange Laboratory (RTB EAGEL)(Working Paper, 2024-12) Jayanth, R.; Rajendran, S.Item Technical Report on Business Investment Decision (BID) Tool(Report, 2024-12) Jayanth, R.; Rajendran, S.The seed sector is critical to agricultural productivity, yet entrepreneurs in this space face significant challenges, including limited financial management skills, operational inefficiencies, financial constraints, and lack of market reach. These issues are compounded by the reliance on ad-hoc, manual processes for decision-making. To address these challenges, this report introduces the Business Investment Decision (BID) tool, a comprehensive digital platform designed to empower seed-sector entrepreneurs and businesses. The BID tool offers structured formats for financial planning, investment analysis, and business growth, enabling users to make informed decisions. Currently available in Excel and web-based formats, with plans for a desktop version, the tool includes modules for business background, business environment, financial management, budgeting, valuation, risk management, and more. Its target users include small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the seed sector, as well as businesses in other industries at various stages of development. The tool has been validated through applications in diverse settings, including RTB EAGEL in Nairobi and Potato ARC Technology in India. Potential benefits of the BID tool include simplified business planning, ease of use for beginners, the ability to raise funds, and enhanced strategic decision-making. Future development plans include expanding the web version, integrating artificial intelligence for industry comparisons and strategy formulation, incorporating real-time data, and enabling seamless integration with accounting systems.Item Assessment of the determinants and economic benefits of adoption of improved sweetpotato varieties in Uganda(Working Paper, 2024-12) Feukeng, F.; Otieno, D.; Okello, J.J.; Rajendran, S.Various efforts have been made in agricultural research in sub-Saharan Africa to improve productivity, access to markets and reduce household food insecurity. In the sweetpotato sector in Uganda, the government and its partners, notably the International Potato Center with financial support from the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, have been working to improve access to quality planting materials, access to knowledge and information related to potato production by farmers and other value chain actors. However, no empirical analysis has been done to understand the determinants of adoption of such varieties and their potential economic benefits to the Ugandan economy. This study addressed this gap by analyzing data from 942 smallholder farmers in Amuria district of Uganda using three approaches; probit model, endogenous switching regression and economic surplus model. The results showed that the farm size, soil fertility status, distance to the shopping centre, group membership and the number of adopters known by the farmer were key drivers of adoption of the improved sweetpotato varieties. Adoption positively affects farmer's yield and negatively affects the cost of production. The economic surplus estimates showed that adoption could generate between US$ 35.74 million to US$ 36 million for the Ugandan economy. In addition, adoption could lead to a reduction of poverty by 0.7% and 2.21% in Uganda as a whole and eastern Uganda, respectively. Based on these insights, the study recommends development of social capital by promoting farmer field schools, farmer groups and cooperatives. In addition, soil fertility management technologies and targeted support based on farmers' socio economic characteristics are necessary to increase adoption rate and improve welfare.Item Inspection and certification manual for cassava planting material in Uganda(Journal Article, 2024-12) Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, UgandaThe National Seed Certification Services (NSCS), Department of Crop Protection, Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry, and Fisheries (MAAIF) has designated inspectors of cassava planting material (seed) to use this handbook. The inspectors will guarantee that the produced cassava seed satisfies the necessary requirements. It will also be utilized by seed growers, training facilities, and cassava seed merchants (business owners), for whom a formal certificate attests to the quality of the seed produced. For cassava seed to be eligible for certification, the handbook outlines the minimal requirements that must be fulfilled in the tissue culture lab, screen house, and fields. Land requirements, isolation distances, degrees of disease and pest tolerance, and seed standards are some of the requirements documented here for ensuring compliance for quality seed production in the countryItem Analysis of farmers’ behaviour towards purchase of improved sweetpotato vines in Uganda: An application of the AIDA model(Working Paper, 2024-12-17) Otieno, D.; Rajendran, S.; Okello, J.J.; Ogero, K.; Feukeng, F.Many studies on adoption of new technologies assume a linear movement from introduction of the technologies to their eventual uptake by targeted stakeholders. However, human behavior follows a gradual and cumulative path from information acquisition, developing an interest, forming a desire and eventually taking action to use new technologies. This study provides analytical results on how a farmer moves from being aware, getting interested, forming a purchase desire and actually purchasing improved sweetpotato seed in Uganda. The study uses primary data from both a baseline and follow up survey of 1192 sweetpotato farmers in Amuria district of Uganda. Principal component analysis and partial least square structural equation model were applied to analyze the empirical linkages between four key constructs; awareness, interest, desire and action (commonly referred to as AIDA model) in tracing the farmer’s journey towards eventual purchase and use/planting of the improved sweetpotato vines. Results show that contrary to theoretical expectation of a linear relationship and exact prediction of action from awareness, interest and desire, the baseline data only linked 47.6% of farmer behavior towards purchase of the improved sweetpotato vines to the sequential movement from awareness, interest and desire. Two distinct categories of farmers were also established; keen customers who pay attention to product details and environmentally-conscious customers who care more about product costs and adaptability to drought and low water stress. The follow up survey plus inclusion of contextual factors improved the explained variance from 48% in the baseline data to 60%. This implies that farmers’ behavior towards adoption of improved sweetpotato requires multiple rounds of data spread over a longer time period to correctly predict. Moreover, contextual factors such as farmers’ resource endowment situation, gender roles and culture add value to the standard AIDA model constructs and should be incorporated in such models to improve the precision of analysis and make the findings more relevant to farmers’ environment, thus resulting to realistic interventions.