IFPRI Discussion Papers
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Item Alianzas para la Innovación Agroalimentaria en Bolivia: Lecciones para la Formulación de Políticas(Working Paper, 2008-06) Hartwich, Frank; Ampuero, Luis; Arispe, Tito; Eguez, Vicente; Mendoza, Jaime; Alexaki, Nancy"La innovación es la introducción exitosa de nuevos conocimientos y tecnologías en los procesos social y productivo. Las formas convencionales de fomentar la innovación en la agricultura y la industria alimentaria en los países en desarrollo a menudo han enfatizado la transferencia de tecnología y conocimiento de los científicos a los extensionistas y, posteriormente, a los productores. Sin embargo, el hecho de que se ha reconocido que existen también otros actores, como los productores vecinos, miembros de la familia, proveedores de insumos agrícolas, compradores, gobiernos locales, proyectos de desarrollo y muchos más, que contribuyen al desarrollo y la utilización de las innovaciones, recientemente ha abierto nuevas oportunidades de iniciar intervenciones de desarrollo. Por ejemplo, han surgido en muchos países en desarrollo alianzas que son apoyadas por los gobiernos y los organismos de desarrollo, y en las que una gama amplia de actores intercambian información acerca de aspectos importantes de la innovación, contribuyen a la generación y difusión de nuevos conocimientos y tecnologías, y participan de manera conjunta en los procesos de aprendizaje colectivo. En este informe se analizan las alianzas entre los pequeños productores y otros actores que se orientan a generar innovaciones en el sector agroalimentario de Bolivia. Se estudiaron 16 alianzas localizadas en tres subsectores ––cereales andinos, oleaginosas y piscicultura–– en torno a: (a) el contexto político e institucional en el que surgieron; (b) la forma en que funcionan, destribuyen los beneficios entre los socios y generan sinergias en el aprendizaje y el desarrollo de tecnología; (c) su desempeño en la relación entre costos y beneficios; y (d) su evolución en el tiempo. Se recolectó esta información mediante entrevistas a los representantes de los socios y las entidades promotoras que participan en cada una de las alianzas. La información recopilada fue complementada con visitas individuales y grupales a 60 productores y/o representantes de las organizaciones de productores. Los resultados del estudio demuestran que las alianzas son un fenómeno reciente en Bolivia. Se dan en todas las zonas agroecológicas del país e incluyen organizaciones de productores, organismos de desarrollo y ONG, entidades de financiamiento gubernamentales y paraestatales, así como proveedores públicos y privados de conocimiento y tecnología, incluyendo universidades, centros de investigación semi-privados y asociaciones de productores. Con la excepción de tres alianzas, todas las estudiadas fueron financiadas por el gobierno o donadores internacionales, además de recibir algunos aportes menores de parte de los productores, los proveedores de conocimiento y los compradores. Entre los socios que se suponía que recibirían los mayores beneficios de la alianza ––es decir, los pequeños productores–– la contribución promedio alcanzó menos del 1% de su valor total. Las alianzas para la innovación se dan en los subsectores de alimentos básicos y se encargan particularmente de variedades mejoradas, pero también existen en los subsectores de cultivos comerciales, como los cereales de zonas andinas (quinua) para exportación o la piscicultura, donde se enfrentan a problemas relacionados con la reducción de costos, la calidad de los alimentos, el procesamiento y el mercadeo. El contexto político e institucional en el que se crean las alianzas para la innovación en el sector agroalimentario de Bolivia no es ideal, debido a por lo menos cuatro razones: (a) la limitada confianza e interés de los productores y otros actores en colaborar en una alianza; (b) la falta de oportunidades de reunirse con otros actores para planificar e iniciar una colaboración; (c) el predominio de mecanismos de financiamiento que no fomentan el establecimiento de alianzas; y (d) los obstáculos administrativos en el Sistema Boliviano de Tecnología Agropecuaria (SIBTA), el mecanismo de promoción de innovación agrícola más importante del país. En general, los socios entienden los beneficios de la colaboración cuando se trata de acceder a mercados y proyectos, y, en menor grado, los efectos positivos del aprendizaje en conjunto. Los socios inician los contactos con base principalmente en sus relaciones anteriores; este es el caso particularmente de las relaciones entre los productores y los extensionistas privados. En unos cuantos casos, los contactos se establecieron en foros de programas que reunieron actores de los territorios y de las cadenas de valor agrícolas. La mayoría de las alianzas se crean con base en los subsidios y oportunidades de financiamiento brindadas por el gobierno o los organismos de desarrollo. Sin estos subsidios, los socios normalmente consideran que los riesgos asociados con las alianzas son demasiado altos. Gran parte de las alianzas fueron formadas en respuesta a proyectos patrocinados por el SIBTA. Sin embargo, el SIBTA no da suficiente cabida al desarrollo de colaboraciones estrechas que permiten que se den los procesos del aprendizaje en conjunto. En cuanto al funcionamiento de las alianzas, los resultados revelan que éstas no suelen realizar plenamente su potencial porque los socios clave carecen de un entendimiento claro de sus papeles y obligaciones dentro de las mismas. El desempeño de las alianzas es limitado cuando los socios asumen una postura pasiva, como de simples receptores. No obstante, en las alianzas en las que los socios han colaborado en el pasado, éstos entienden mejor sus papeles. Algunos individuos u organizaciones participantes, sobre todo los proveedores de conocimiento y tecnología, brindan un excelente liderazgo debido a su buena reputación, sus capacidades y su visión. Cuando esto falta en una alianza, lo más probable es que los socios no organicen las actividades iniciales. Algunos organismos de financiamiento han asumido un papel activo en promover una alianza y, en consecuencia, ha mejorado notablemente su funcionamiento. Con algunas excepciones, las alianzas en Bolivia tienen una estructura organizacional muy parca, basada en los planes de operación descritos en las respectivas propuestas de proyecto. En el caso de una alianza orientada a realizar operaciones más diversas y complejas, una administración basada menos en el consenso y que consume menos tiempo, suele ser más adecuada. El flujo de información en las alianzas estudiadas varía según los socios y existe una clara correlación entre un flujo de información más ágil y el desempeño. Sin embargo, algunas alianzas tienen problemas para difundir la información a todos sus socios; por ejemplo, a veces los productores sólo reciben la información que el proveedor de conocimiento y tecnología considera necesaria para que adopten la tecnología. Normalmente hay una mejor diseminación de información acerca de los mercados y las ventas que de información tecnológica. Pese a todos los esfuerzos, en la mayoría de las alianzas, la difusión de información aún no es de una calidad que permita crear una cultura de aprendizaje conjunto en apoyo a la generación de innovaciones. Los problemas de funcionamiento de las alianzas también afectan su desempeño. El presente estudio no recogió información cuantitativa sobre el desempeño de las alianzas ni sobre los resultados y los impactos del uso de las innovaciones generadas por éstas. Sin embargo, sí arrojó resultados cualitativos respecto a las ventajas de la colaboración para cada uno de los socios. Cualquier colaboración brinda a los socios la oportunidad de adquirir nuevas capacidades y destrezas en la producción, el procesamiento y el mercadeo, ya sea porque aprenden de sus compañeros o porque aprenden junto con ellos. Los socios se beneficiarán de las oportunidades siempre y cuando la alianza facilite una comunicación activa y fluida, o proporcione espacios para que los socios reflexionen sobre posibles soluciones, dialoguen y realicen experimentación conjunta. Las 16 alianzas estudiadas se quedan cortas en este aspecto porque no pasaron de la fase inicial. El compromiso de los socios fue limitado y esto, a su vez, afectó el desempeño de la alianza. En unos pocos casos, se observó que la alianza evolucionó con el tiempo y los socios aprendieron acerca de los beneficios que se generaron como resultado del compromiso asumido. Se hicieron pocos esfuerzos por lograr una evolución positiva de la alianza y ajustarla a las cambiantes condiciones tecnológicas, institucionales y de mercado. Varias de las alianzas tienen una capacidad limitada de continuar sin percibir subsidios de terceras partes. Las alianzas que operan en áreas y líneas de productos que son comercialmente sólidas y que permiten a los socios generar utilidades, y aquéllas que cuentan con inversiones sustanciales por parte del sector privado, tienen mayores probabilidades de continuar una vez que el financiamiento (del proyecto) por parte de terceros termina. No obstante, a la mayoría de los socios les falta una visión comercial y se quedan en las alianzas para asegurar los subsidios actuales y otras inversiones que podrían recibir en el futuro gracias a sus relaciones con los donadores y los proveedores de tecnología. De acuerdo con la filosofía de “proyecto”, los socios prefieren seguir el plan y a menudo no visualizan las oportunidades que surgen en respuesta a las cambiantes condiciones en los mercados y los conocimientos tecnológicos. En conclusión, las deficiencias identificadas en la creación y orientación de las alianzas obstruyen la generación y la difusión de innovaciones en el sector agroalimentario de Bolivia. El estudio identificó muchas alianzas que no han evolucionado más allá de las fases iniciales. La mayoría no genera suficientes utilidades para que algunos de los socios justifiquen su participación en ellas. En el ámbito de desarrollo actual, se dedica mucha atención a las alianzas y existe la tendencia a crear alianzas inadecuadas, en las que los socios no aportan siquiera lo mínimo; por lo tanto, tienen poca motivación para asumir un compromiso y generar beneficios para todos. Los organismos de desarrollo y los gobiernos siguen promoviendo la modalidad de proyectos en la que existen proveedores y receptores de conocimiento y tecnología, lo cual no es conducente al desarrollo de verdaderas alianzas con muchos distintos tipos de socios orientados a la generación de innovaciones agroalimentarias que aprovechen el potencial que surge de compartir recursos y del aprendizaje conjunto. Con base en el análisis del estudio, se formularon una serie de recomendaciones que ayudarán a los tomadores de decisiones que participan en las alianzas orientadas a generar innovaciones agroalimentarias (representantes de organizaciones de productores, entidades de extensión y empresas privadas), así como aquéllos que las promueven (organismos gubernamentales y de desarrollo, gerentes de fondos): El crear una alianza no es siempre una opción útil. Aquéllos que participan en las alianzas o que las promueven deben asegurar que existen las condiciones indispensables para crearlas. Las alianzas tienen que generar sinergia al reunir conocimientos y recursos, y permitir el aprendizaje y la solución de problemas; asimismo, necesitan generar beneficios proporcionales para todos los socios. En especial, cada socio debe percibir que los beneficios que recibe superan los costos de su participación. Para averiguar si estas condiciones existen, es necesario realizar un análisis profundo de las oportunidades tecnológicas y de las demandas e intereses de todos los socios. Los representantes de organizaciones asociadas tienen que asegurarse que éstas no ingresen en las alianzas sin antes realizar un análisis profundo de las demandas e intereses de todos los socios, así como de las oportunidades tecnológicas de innovar y su potential en el mercado. Las organizaciones que buscan promover la formación de alianzas deben apoyar la realización de este tipo de análisis y, también, el fortalecimiento de la capacidad de análisis de los socios. Los proyectos y programas que promueven la innovación agroalimentaria pueden beneficiarse si adoptan el enfoque de las alianzas, dado que las innovaciones no son generadas por actores aislados, sino más bien mediante la colaboración de muchos en una red de innovación. Los socios tienen que darse cuenta de que el intercambio de información y conocimientos y la búsqueda, entre todos los socios, de soluciones a problemas comunes es un requisito esencial para el éxito de las alianzas y para su propio beneficio. Por eso, es necesario que los líderes de la alianza organicen muchas reuniones, diálogos y ejercicios prácticos en los que todos los socios pueden contribuir sus experiencias y conocimientos. Las alianzas requieren una estructura organizacional que refleje la participación de numerosos actores; no es suficiente una estructura de proyecto basada en un contrato de provisión de servicios. Al principio, la organización necesita ser sencilla y sin jerarquías para permitir la libre participación de todos los socios. Al madurar la alianza y con la participación en actividades cada vez más complejas, surge la delegación y subordinación de tareas. Los programas y mecanismos de financiamiento deberían ampliar su visión y abarcar proyectos que operan en la modalidad de las alianzas; esto permitiría incluir más socios con capacidades complementarias. Asimismo, deberían permitir una re-orientación flexible de los planes de operación y la integración de nuevos socios durante el ciclo del proyecto. Durante la vida de los proyectos, se deberán buscar opciones para garantizar una colaboración continuada entre los socios, aun después de que cese el financiamiento externo. Los proyectos de alianzas se benefician del apoyo económico y organizacional durante sus fases iniciales y también requieren el establecimiento de relaciones contractuales más complejas, que sobrepasen la modalidad de proyectos, con mecanismos capaces de manejar los diversos intereses y niveles de co-financiamiento ––no sólo para poder alcanzar las metas del co-financiamiento, sino también para lograr que los productores asuman el compromiso. Los gobiernos y los organismos de desarrollo podrían también visualizar plataformas de apoyo que permitan a los socios en las cadenas de valor agrícola y en regiones específicas reunirse, planificar e iniciar alianzas. Durante estas reuniones, se debe enfatizar el análisis de las necesidades e intereses de los socios, así como las oportunidades tecnológicas y de mercado. Cuando los actores identifican que existen posibilidades de colaborar y asumen el compromiso, no se requiere de financiamiento de terceras partes. En otros casos, se necesita financiamiento para que los actores empiecen a tomar los primeros pasos hacia la colaboración. Aún no existe un número suficiente de entidades que brinden apoyo técnico en la promoción de la innovación mediante la creación de alianzas. Sería muy ventajoso crear capacidades que permitieran a actores especializados identificar los posibles socios, realizar estudios de factibilidad con base en las demandas tecnológicas y las condiciones de mercado, y acompañar la creación y evaluación de alianzas." -- from Authors' AbstractItem Agrifood value chains in India: A state-level analysis using a social accounting matrix(Working Paper, 2025-01-27) Pal, Barun Deb; Thurlow, James; Pauw, Karl; Diao, Xinshen; Ajmani, Manmeet SinghThis study describes disparities in per capita income, in the structure of the economy, and in agrifood systems (AFS) across states in India. We use the gross value added (GVA) obtained from state-specific agrifood value chains (AVCs) to describe the size and structure of the AFS in each state of India. This study also presents the size of employment and variability in labor productivity within the AFS across states. A special focus is given to female and youth employment in the state specific AVCs. The 2017/18 state-level social accounting matrix (SAM) for India is the primary data source for estimating statewise GVA from the AFS. Periodic Labor Force Survey data are used to estimate the size of AFS employment. Our results reveal that the bottom half of the Indian population has an average per capita income of US$1,019, 2.5 times lower than that of the top half. India’s AFS is valued at $756 billion, or 31 percent of its GVA. Primary agriculture comprises 59 percent of the AFS, and off-farm activities the rest. The share of off-farm activities in the AFS rises moving from lower-income states to higher-income states, corroborating the theory of structural transformation. The national average share of female workers in total employment is 23 percent and the majority of women who do work are engaged in primary agriculture. The share of women employed in the primary agriculture sector does not change between low- and high-income states in India. In contrast, the share of youth in primary agriculture declines between lower- and higher-income states. Since state governments in India are empowered to design their own policy and development strategies, this study provides an important policy insight to both the federal (central) and state governments.Item Stakeholder disconnect: Differences between farmers, extension workers, and researchers on preferred strategies for timely wheat sowing in Bihar, India(Working Paper, 2025-01-22) Gupta, Shweta; Kishore, Avinash; Burton, MichaelLate sowing of wheat is a persistent problem in South Asia despite widespread awareness that it lowers crop yields. We asked 2034 farmers, 33 researchers, and 114 frontline extension workers (EW) in Bihar, India to rank 6 commonly recommended solutions for their effectiveness. Respondents faced repeated rounds of best-worst choices to obtain a full ranking of the options. Responses were analyzed using random utility models. Farmers ranked timely and affordable irrigation as the most effective solution and zero-tillage (ZT) the least effective one; researchers ranked ZT the highest. The EW were somewhere in the middle. A better understanding of the reasons behind the differences in the assessments of researchers, extension personnel, and farmers about what will work the best will generate better solutions.Item The state of food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Headey, Derek D.Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, humanitarian advocacy efforts, and rationally allocating foreign aid. Longstanding dissatisfaction with the FAO’s undernourishment indicator prompted the development of new metrics in recent decades, including the FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and the unaffordability of healthy diets. However, no previous research has assessed whether food insecurity and poverty indicators are in broad agreement on which countries are insecure/poor, and whether global food insecurity is rising or falling. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. At the country level, FIES severe food insecurity is often higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in Niger and other extremely poor African countries. On global trends, the FAO reports increasing undernourishment and FIES food insecurity over 2014-2022, whereas the World Bank reports monetary poverty declining and healthy diets becoming more affordable. Moreover, trends in FAO food security indicators are not statistically explained by hypothesized factors cited in FAO reports, such as conflict or climate change, and increases in the FAO’s calorie consumption inequality metric are inconsistent with declining income inequality reported by the World Bank. We provide four concrete suggestions to improve food security measurement and monitoring: (1) the FAO should cease modelling undernourishment; (2) new independent studies should re-evaluate the FIES and test new metrics; (3) international agencies should implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose, open-access surveys; and (4) researchers should further improve the “nowcasting” of poverty and food insecurity for data-scarce crisis contexts.Item Bias alleviation and value activation in citizens’ juries: Enhancing deliberation and civic engagement in sustainable food systems(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Burger, Maximilian Nicolaus; Nilgen, Marco; Vollan, BjörnCitizens’ Juries (CJs) are increasingly implemented as a means to engage citizens in deliberation on complex policy challenges, yet their effectiveness can be undermined by cognitive biases and limited value-driven reasoning. This study evaluates the impact of bias alleviation and value activation exercises on deliberative quality and civic engagement in four CJs conducted in Bogotá, Colombia. Two juries incorporated these exercises as treatment interventions, and two served as controls with extended deliberation time. Results reveal that deliberation itself modestly reduced confirmation bias compared to non-participants, while the structured interventions enhanced participants’ awareness of biases and value-based reasoning. However, the interventions did not significantly reduce the occurrence of biases and led to a perceived trade-off with deliberation time. Participation in CJs also showed improved trust in science and political self-efficacy, demonstrating their potential to foster civic engagement. These findings highlight the nuanced benefits and limitations of integrating debiasing interventions into mini-publics to enhance deliberative quality and equity in policymaking.Item Man vs. machine: Experimental evidence on the quality and perceptions of AI-generated research content(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Keenan, Michael; Koo, Jawoo; Mwangi, Christine; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Breisinger, Clemens; Kim, MinAhAcademic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience. Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience.Item Nature-positive agriculture for people and the planet: A qualitative analysis from Kenya(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Kinuthia, Dickson; Oingo, Balentine; Bryan, Elizabeth; Davis, Kristin E.; Wallin, Elsa; Bukachi, Salome A.Agricultural intensification that prioritizes profits over people and the environment is increasingly recognized as harmful to people’s wellbeing and the sustainability and resilience of smallholder farming systems. Nature-based solutions are part of nature-positive eco-agrifood systems and are critical for restoring ecosystems and preventing further biodiversity loss and environmental degradation during a climate crisis. To support more widespread adoption of nature-based solutions, it is important to understand dynamics within local communities where these solutions will be applied. This includes deeper understanding of environmental challenges, institutional and governance arrangements, current farming practices, gender relations, and perceptions of nature-based solutions. This study draws on qualitative data on these topics collected from smallholder farmers and key informants in three counties of Kenya. The discussion centers on the potential for nature-based practices to place agricultural production systems on a more sustainable path.Item Impacts of personalized picture-based crop advisories: Experimental evidence from India and Kenya(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Ceballos, Francisco; Chugh, Aditi; Kramer, BerberThe rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has heightened interest in digital models to strengthen agricultural extension. Such tools could help provide personalized advisories tailored to a farmer's unique conditions at scale and at a low cost. This study evaluates the fundamental assumption that personalized crop advisories are more effective than generic ones. By means of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT), we assess the impact of personalized picture-based advisories on farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and adoption of recommended inputs and practices, and other downstream outcomes. We find that personalizing advisories does not significantly improve agricultural outcomes compared to generic ones. While farmers who engage relatively more with advisories (i.e., those who receive and read a substantial number of messages based on self-reports) tend to achieve better outcomes, this is irrespective of whether the advisories they receive are tailored to their specific situation or not. We conclude that investments in digital extension tools should aim to enhance engagement with advisories rather than focusing solely on personalization.Item Leveraging public works for sustainable and resilient livelihoods: Four case studies from India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Narayanan, Sudha; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Gautam, AditiDespite significant improvements in poverty and standard of living over the last two decades, India continues to face challenges, including slow improvements in health and nutrition indicators and in aspects of women’s empowerment and in generating opportunities for sustainable livelihoods. At the same time, climate-related events are increasing in frequency with associated risks. Women and other marginalized populations are often at greater risk from these events due to their relatively lower access to resources, lower mobility and greater dependence on common property resources. Social protection can be an effective instrument to promote resilience. One such large social protection program with significant potential is India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, or the MGNREGA, one of the largest public works programs in the world. This report provides insights from four case studies linked to the MGNREGA and implemented under the Indo-German Enhancing Rural Resilience through Appropriate Development Actions, or ERADA project. ERADA was implemented in 8 blocks of 4 large Indian states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. The ERADA project had three broad objectives - of enhancing natural capital, green recovery through green enterprises, and convergence of resources and networks - and identified the MGNREGA as a critical social safety net on which to base its activities. While much has been written on the impact of the MGNREGA on “first-order” outcomes such as wages, employment, rural-urban distress migration and other household welfare outcomes, we know considerably less about the use of the assets created under the program, and even less about the potential of these assets to support and sustain value chain activities.Item Market information and R&D investment under ambiguity: A framed artefactual experiment with plant breeding professionals(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Trachtman, Carly; Kramer, Berber; do Nascimento Miguel, JérémyInvestments in R&D are often made under ambiguity about the potential impacts of various projects. High-quality, systematic market research could help reduce that ambiguity, including in investments in agricultural research-for-development, such as plant breeding. Using an online framed artefactual experiment with a diverse sample of breeding experts working in various disciplines across the world, we ask how market information and information quality influences breeding experts’ investments in prospects with ambiguous returns, and how the quality and source of information affect willingness to pay for market information. We find that providing market information leads participants to make more prioritized (rather than diversified) decisions. However, participants do not consider differences in information quality, instead over extrapolating from noisy and biased information signals. Finally, while most participants are willing to use experimental funds to purchase market information, around half prefer lower quality information even if higher quality information is available at the same price. We conclude that prioritizing R&D projects with greater impact opportunities will require better awareness among decision-makers of quality issues in various types of market research.Item Can role models and skills training increase women’s voice in asset selection? Experimental evidence from Odisha, India(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Narayanan, Sudha; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Ray, SoumyajitWe explore the impacts of exposing women to female role models and providing skills training on outcomes related to women’s aspirations and engagement in demanding assets under India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA)—the largest public works program in the world, which solicits citizen input on which assets to build and where. While the role model treatment exposes women to a video with stories of female role models from neighboring districts who successfully demanded assets, the skills training shows women how to identify individual and group needs for assets, frame their demands, and articulate them to public functionaries. In a randomized controlled trial spanning 94 villages and involving approximately 2,600 women, we find that exposure to role models alone has limited impacts, but when combined with skills training, there are strong positive impacts on women’s aspirations and engagement in demanding assets. This reveals that even a light-touch training can significantly benefit women’s voice and agency in village decision-making.Item What’s holding back private sector agricultural insurance?(Working Paper, 2024-12-14) Hazell, Peter; Timu, Anne G.Much of the recent literature on agricultural insurance focuses on ways to increase farmers’ demand for insurance, but this paper revisits the supply side of the insurance market. To better understand the conditions under which private insurance has been successful or failed the paper draws on the available empirical and theoretical literature, on case studies, and interviews with selected insurers. While there are many examples of innovative solutions to some of the product design, marketing and delivery challenges facing agricultural insurance, our review suggests that private unsubsidized insurance can only play a limited role in terms of the overall risk management needs of agriculture. Fundamentally, agricultural insurance can only address certain types of risks, and these are often not the most important from the farmers’ perspective. For most farmers insurance is best seen as part of a broader risk management approach, and its relevance for commercial farmers linked to value chains can be quite different from that for more subsistence-oriented smallholders. Commercial farmers generally have the most options for managing risk and may benefit most from specific types of indemnity or index-based products to protect specific agricultural investments and there are many examples of insurers meeting this need on an affordable and unsubsidized basis. On the other hand, subsistence-oriented farmers, especially poor and vulnerable ones, need insurance that can help protect their household income and consumption from negative shocks. This kind of insurance is expensive and difficult to supply without subsidies and requires strong public sector support. Even if targeted in this way, private unsubsidized insurance will only thrive given a supporting policy environment and, to keep costs down and improve the relevance and delivery of its products, insurers need to take full advantage of new and emerging digital and remote sensing innovations, and where possible, partner with intermediaries who can bundle their insurance with credit, farm inputs and other services.Item Tajikistan’s agrifood sector review(Working Paper, 2024-12-14) Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; Aliev, JovidonThis study examines the growth and challenges in Tajikistan’s agriculture sector, highlighting its role as a key driver of the country’s development despite significant constraints and challenges, including inputs scarcity and climate change. The agriculture sector has seen an increase in gross outputs and sectoral value added, contributing to domestic needs due to population and income growth. However, Tajikistan still has the lowest agricultural value added per worker in Central Asia and remains a net importer of agrifood products, primarily due to the underdevelopment of the food processing sector. Key growth drivers include sectoral reforms, shifts in land allocation, and government incentives. Despite these efforts, regional disparities in productivity persist, and access to inputs such as fertilizers and mechanization remains limited. The paper emphasizes the need for improved access to finance, agricultural inputs, and extension services to ensure sustainable development and food security. Recommendations include enhancing the capacity of national agricultural research and development institutions, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and improving water and irrigation management. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of developing the livestock sector through improved feeding, breeding, and veterinary services. Overall, a comprehensive approach addressing policy, institutional, economic, and technological gaps is crucial for the sustainable advancement of Tajikistan’s agriculture sector.Item Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov) assessment framework insights from the India pilot study(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Ragasa, Catherine; Kyle, Jordan; Yasmin, Sabina; Pande, Harshita; Sharma, Aanshi; Basu, Sampurna; Najjar, DinaWomen’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-term economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: Women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Despite the importance of women’s voices and their empowerment in policy and decision-making processes, available metrics show that women’s policy and political empowerment remains low. Moreover, these metrics are inadequate in systematically tracking women’s voices and empowerment across different levels of decision-making. IFPRI developed an assessment framework—Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov)—to assess women’s voices and empowerment in national policy processes in agrifood systems. This paper presents results from the pilot testing of WEAGov in India from January to March 2024. In this paper, we present how the WEAGov tool works in the Indian context, analyze trends in the data that we collected during the pilot, and provide an overview of the status of women’s voices and empowerment in the agrifood policy process as of March 2024. The pilot testing in India provides useful lessons on improving the measurement of these outcomes and offers valuable policy insights on critical entry points for increasing women’s voices and empowerment in the national agrifood policy process, design, implementation, and evaluation.Item Why do multistakeholder processes emerge and flourish? Identifying and operationalizing the leading hypotheses(Working Paper, 2024-12-29) Andersson, Krister; Nehring, Ryan; Zhang, Wei; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S.The literature on Multistakeholder Processes (MSPs) includes several studies that seek to specify the conditions under which MSPs perform well and deliver tangible governance improvements that would otherwise not happen. This is important research as MSPs are gaining popularity as an alternative to more traditional governance strategies, such as centralized, government-led activities. MSPs are often proposed in institutional settings where formal governance institutions are perceived to be ineffective or inequitable. In principle, studies that explain variation in MSP outcomes have the potential to inform MSP organizers and their decisions about how to organize their future MSPs in ways that save resources and improve outcomes. However, the existing MSP research programs demonstrate at least three limitations: First, the literature is characterized by the production of long lists of potential determinants of MSP performance, which makes it challenging for researchers to offer practical advice as to which of these factors is most important for MSP organizers to address first, and under which contextual conditions. Second, there is little agreement among scholars about what the core elements of a well-functioning MSP are, which elements affect mostly the emergence vis-à-vis effectiveness, and it is rare that studies specify which conditions or factors are essential and which may be helpful but not critical ingredients of success. Third, there is a dearth of theory-driven research that uses causal inference methods to test the theoretical propositions, which means that it is difficult to assess the quality of evidence in literature’s existing, mostly descriptive analyses. To advance knowledge about the emergence and flourishing of MSPs, and move beyond the production of long lists of associative success factors, there is an urgent need for researchers to come together in a community of practice to address the noted shortcomings. The Community of Practice will also promote the development of new and innovative ways of conducting MSP work, which will enable researchers to improve outcomes in terms of both cost-effectiveness and equity. In this paper, we review and synthesize the leading hypotheses on MSP emergence and effectiveness, develop a theoretical framework that captures the leading hypotheses, and discuss the viability of employing causal inference methods to test new hypotheses related to the emergence and flourishing of MSPs. We conclude by outlining the contours of a community of practice and how it can help advance MSP scholarship.Item How agri-food value chain employment and compensation evolve with structural transformation(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Yi, Jing; Jiang, Shiyun; Tran, Dianna; Gómez, Miguel I.; Canning, Patrick; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Barrett, Christopher B.The traditional structural transformation narrative emphasizes inter-sectoral labor reallocation out of agriculture, ignoring whether workers exit agri-food value chains or merely migrate within them, from primary agricultural production to downstream food industries. We introduce a method to decompose multiregional input-output table data into industry-and-country-specific annual labor value added estimates by final consumer market segment – domestic food at home, domestic food away from home, or exports – and match with industry-specific employment data to estimate average worker compensation. Using data covering most of the global economy, 1993-2021, we report ten stylized facts that sharpen the traditional narrative about labor reallocation amid structural transformation. As incomes grow, labor exits primary production for downstream agri-food value chain segments that maintain a steady economywide employment share while offering jobs that pay better than farm work. Women disproportionately move from primary production to downstream, consumer-facing retail and food service, while men migrate to better-paying midstream jobs, increasing gender pay inequality within the value chain. Employment shifts are strongly associated with changes in national per capita income, but not with agricultural total factor productivity growth.Item Do public works investments in watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation improve nutrition and resilience? Evidence from bureau for humanitarian assistance interventions in support of Ethiopia’s productive safety net program(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Balana, Bedru; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Arega, Tiruwork; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth; Yami, Mastewal; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Wondwosen, AbenezerBetween 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation.Item Farming under fire: The interplay of armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; Breisinger, ClemensThe recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks.Item Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; Olwande, JohnAmid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty.Item Global rice market: Current outlook and future prospects(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, AbdullahRice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia.