IFPRI Discussion Papers

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Cost effective options for inclusive agrifood system development in Tajikistan
(Working Paper, 2025-06-11) Aragie, Emerta A.; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; Aliev, Jovidon; Diao, Xinshen; Fang, Peixun; Thurlow, James
This paper presents a model-based and data-driven analysis of alternative public investment options for Tajikistan’s agrifood system based on cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes. The study indicates that there is no single intervention that is the most cost-effective across all economic and social outcomes, including agrifood GDP growth, job creation, poverty reduction, lowered undernourishment, and improvement in diet quality. Irrigation infrastructure development, R&D in husbandry, and food loss and waste reduction are the most cost-effective investments in the combined economic outcomes, including growth and jobs. In contrast, irrigation, food loss and waste reduction, and seed systems are more effective in the combined social outcomes, including poverty, undernourishment, and diet. Considering time horizons, extension services are more effective in the short run, while irrigation and R&D deliver greater impact over time. Sector variations in the magnitude of effects are also observed among investment interventions. Overall, comparisons across development outcomes, sectoral focus, and timeframes reveal important synergies and trade-offs, underscoring the need for evidence-based tools to guide effective policy and investment decisions.
Weather risks and international migration: Panel-data evidence from Tajikistan
(Working Paper, 2025-06-09) Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Ergasheva, Tanzila
Climate change and increased frequency of abnormal weather are becoming growing threats to people’s livelihood, including in Central Asia. These threats are particularly challenging in Tajikistan, the poorest country in the Central Asia region. Despite the fact that migration is prevalent and remittances account for a significant share of GDP, evidence is scarce as to whether the decision to migrate is driven by weather shocks, whether migration is used as mitigating tool against adverse weather shocks, and how much of the loss in welfare is actually mitigated by such migration. This study aims to narrow this knowledge gap by providing evidence based on a unique panel dataset from one of the poorest and agriculturally dependent regions in Tajikistan (Khatlon province), combined with a detailed set of various climate data. In doing so, we apply a novel approach through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to identify key weather shock variables among a vast set of potential variables associated with outmigration decisions in different districts. Our results show that different types of weather shocks are associated with outmigration decisions in different districts within the province, ranging from rainfall, temperatures, drought, and windspeed in different subperiods throughout the year. Regardless, more abnormal weather is almost universally associated with more outmigration, and outmigration significantly mitigates the potentially adverse effects on household consumption and food/nutrition security in the origin households. However, more abnormal weather in the origin location is also associated with reduced remittances per month per migrant sent to the origin location. Thus, the capacity of migration to mitigate against weather shocks is still limited. Combined with migration policies that increase net earnings during migration, supplementary support to enhance climate resilience in home locations, such as climate-smart agriculture and development of the non-farm sector, remains critical.
Measuring agrifood systems: New indicators and global estimates
(Working Paper, 2025-05-27) Thurlow, James; Holtemeyer, Brian; Jiang, Shiyun; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josee
Transformation of the agrifood system is a cornerstone of many governments’ national development plans. This reflects the importance of agrifood systems for the livelihoods and wellbeing of poor populations as well as the continued strong association of agricultural transformation with longer-term economic development and structural change. Agrifood transformation is also key to healthier diets and more sustainable production systems. However, adopting an agrifood system perspective is not trivial—it requires looking “beyond agriculture” when prioritizing policies and tracking outcomes by also considering upstream and downstream agrifood-related activities, such as agro-processing and food distribution. Measuring transformation therefore requires economywide data and innovative metrics. This study introduces two such metrics: AgGDP+, which captures the total value-added across the on- and off-farm sectors of the agrifood system, and AgEMP+, which reflects the employment generated across its various components. It further explains how consistent estimates of AgGDP+ and AgEMP+ were produced for 211 and 186 countries, respectively, over the period between 2000 and 2021, and demonstrates how this Agri-Food System Dashboard—a publicly available resource—can be used to monitor transformation, prioritize investments, and better understand the evolving role of agrifood systems in national economies or at regional or global scales.
Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan
(Working Paper, 2025-05-20) Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid
This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.
The political economy of large-scale food fortification in West Africa: Pathways toward harmonization
(Working Paper, 2025-05-13) Resnick, Danielle
For two decades, there have been ongoing efforts at harmonizing large-scale food fortification (LSFF) policies and procedures in West Africa. Despite some notable successes, micronutrient deficiencies in the region remain elevated. To identify which bottlenecks exist towards greater harmonization on LSFF, this study adopted a political economy perspective to consider areas of contention over interests, ideas, and institutions between domestic stakeholders, across countries, and within regional bodies. The study finds that West African governments have made impressive strides with harmonizing their LSFF standards and committing to the importance of fortification as one of several instruments for improving micronutrient deficiencies. Likewise, the donor and technical community have worked closely with the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as well as specialized institutions of ECOWAS, such as the West African Health Organization (WAHO), to advance the LSFF agenda, support the private sector and national fortification alliances, and identify new food vehicles for fortification. At the same time, incoherent trade, tax, and macroeconomic policies in a context of multiple shocks and crises, protectionist impulses aimed at building up domestic agro-industries, lack of financial commitment to LSFF structures in the absence of donor support, and uneven financial contributions to ECOWAS and WAHO remain barriers to progress. Learning from these lessons and considering how to address LSFF from a holistic perspective that accounts for West Africa’s unique demographic, economic, and political characteristics will not only benefit extant harmonization efforts in ECOWAS but also help with broader continental alignment on fortification under the African Union’s 2025-2036 food and nutrition security strategy.
Options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and food systems
(Working Paper, 2025-05-08) Vos, Rob; Martin, Will
Food systems generate about one third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Without reducing them, it will not be possible to stabilize the climate and keep the increase in global temperature below 1.5 oC from pre-industrial levels. About 50 percent of agricultural emissions (in CO2eq) come from methane, a super potent GHG, mostly from livestock production and rice cultivation. We consider six broad potential approaches to reducing emissions from agriculture—emission taxes; repurposing of farm support; regulations and conditionality; investing in green innovations; emission reduction credits, and demand-side interventions. We find that carbon taxes on most agricultural production emissions are likely much less effective than for emissions from combustion. Simple rearrangement or reduction of agricultural support will have only small impacts in terms of improving human and planetary health. By contrast, repurposing agricultural support towards R&D on sustainable agricultural intensification could generate major efficiency gains, sharply reduce emissions and improve food security. Regulatory approaches, including conditionality and payment for environmental services (PES) can be counterproductive if they lower yields and require expansion of agricultural land use. The potential benefits of emission reduction credits are greatly diminished by challenges in defining their baselines. Demand interventions designed to contribute both to environmental goals and improvements in health outcomes may also play a supporting role. Since multiple sustainable development goals are to be achieved, no single instrument by itself will be effective. Instead, multiple policy instruments will need to be bundled and targeted to create synergies and address trade-offs.
Understanding the policy landscape for climate action in Kenya: Potential for integration of gender, nutrition, and improved impact monitoring
(Working Paper, 2025-05-07) Magalhaes, Marilia; Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Nyukuri, Elvin; Choudhury, Zahid ul Arifin
As in other low- and middle-income countries, more intense climate hazards and a warmer climate negatively impact agricultural production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Kenya, as well as household diets, national food security and gender equality. Improving climate policy and investments to address these negative impacts requires suitable policy and investment structures that are, moreover, adequately networked among each other and with equity and nutrition efforts for effective climate action. This paper explores the institutional arrangements of the climate change policy landscape in Kenya by mapping governmental and non-governmental actors involved in climate action and how connected and influential they are. Data for this paper was collected through two participatory workshops, one at the national level and one at the county level, using the Net-Map approach. This approach provides novel insights into the highly complex climate policy landscape in Kenya. Although several climate policies and actions are in place in the country, workshop participants called for better coordination across climate change actors and stronger implementation capacity. The recent structural changes in the donor landscape might be an entry point for better alignment and coordination among different actor groups, and specifically among different government actor groups. A lack of operational monitoring and evaluation systems was also considered an important impediment to assess to what extent women and other vulnerable groups are benefitting from climate action in the country.
Parametric and machine learning approaches to examine yield differences between control and treatment considering outliers and statistical biases: The case of insect resistant/herbicide tolerant (IR/HT) maize in Honduras
(Working Paper, 2025-04-24) Falck-Zepeda, José B.; Zambrano, Patricia; Sanders, Arie; Trabanino, Carlos Rogelio
Robust impact assessment methods need credible yield, costs, and other production performance parameter estimates. Sample data issues and the realities of producer heterogeneity and markets, including endogeneity, simultaneity, and outliers can affect such parameters. Methods have continued to evolve that may address data issues identified in the earlier literature examining genetically modified (GM) crops impacts especially those of conventional field level surveys. These methods may themselves have limitations, introduce trade-offs, and may not always be successful in addressing such issues. Experimental methods such as randomized control trials have been proposed to address several control treatment data issues, but these may not be suitable for every situation and issue and may be more expensive and complex than conventional field surveys. Furthermore, experimental methods may induce the unfortunate outcome of crowding-out impact assessors from low- and middle-income countries. The continued search for alternatives that help address conventional survey shortcomings remains critical. Previously, existing assessment methods were applied to the impact assessment of insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize adoption in Honduras in 2008 and 2012. Results from assessments identified endogeneity issues such as self-selection and simultaneity concurrently with influential outliers. Procedures used to address these issues independently showed trade-offs between addressing endogeneity and outliers. Thus, the need to identify methods that address both issues simultaneously, minimizing as much as possible the impact of method trade-offs, continues. We structured this paper as follows. First, we review the literature to delineate data and assessment issues potentially affecting robust performance indicators such as yields and costs differentials. Second, we discuss and apply four types of approaches that can be used to obtain robust performance estimates for yield and cost differentials including: 1) Robust Instrumental Variables, 2) Instrumental Variable Regressions, and 3) Control/Treatment, and 4) Machine Learning methods that are amenable to robust strategies to deal with outliers including Random Forest and a Stacking regression approach that allows for a number of “base learners” in order to examine the pooled 2008 and 2012 Honduras field surveys. Third, we discuss implications for impact assessment results and implementation limitations especially in low- and middle-income countries. We further discuss and draw some conclusions regarding methodological issues for consideration by impact assessors and stakeholders.
Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India
(Working Paper, 2025-04-08) Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Kishore, Avinash
Despite recognition of the potentially significant cumulative effects of input use on annual crop output—such as the effect of applying inorganic fertilizer in one year on crop output in the subsequent year—real-world evidence from smallholder farmers’ fields in lower-income countries remains scarce. We narrow this knowledge gap using unique district-level and farm-household-level annual panel datasets in India. We start with flexible translog production functions, which are well-suited for identifying cumulative effects in farmers’ actual production environments. We then apply shrinkage methods (LASSO and GMM-LASSO) to approximate the production function with reduced parameter dimensions, addressing various challenges such as multicollinearity among multiple inputs, including the same inputs from the current and previous years, and potential endogeneity in inputs. Our results indicate that, throughout the shrinkage process, potassium remains a key predictor of outputs, while other inputs (land, labor, capital, irrigation, and other fertilizer nutrients) drop out. More important, the cumulative quantity of potassium from both the previous and current years is a consistently more critical determinant of production than the quantity of potassium from the current year alone, demonstrating the potassium’s significant cumulative effects. These patterns hold at both the district and farm levels across diverse agroecologies and cropping systems. Furthermore, the dynamic panel data analyses suggest that farmers’ use of potassium in the current year is significantly negatively affected by its use in the previous year, potentially stabilizing outputs across years. Our results support earlier agronomic findings suggesting that the cumulative effects of potassium may be relevant across wider geographic regions than previously thought.
Business aspects along the rural-urban continuum, outlet type, and gender of ownership among MSMEs in the Vietnamese food environment
(Working Paper, 2025-04-08) Ceballos, Francisco; Aguilar, Francisco; de Brauw, Alan; Nguyen, Trang; van den Berg, Marrit
Concurrent with its rapid economic growth, Viet Nam has been experiencing a food systems transformation. Broad changes in the food environment have been a key part of this transition. While the availability of processed food is ubiquitous, the food environment continues to be largely dominated by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). So, to build strategies to improve the availability and affordability of healthy foods, MSMEs are a key entry point. In this paper, we use primary survey data to separate key sources of variation in MSMEs’ organizational dimensions and business practices by type of outlet, rural-urban location, and gender of the owners. We focus on outcomes related to employment, food sources, business finance, good business practices, and nutrition knowledge and attitudes. We find limited differences in this set of outcomes in terms of whether an outlet is located in a rural, peri-urban, or urban area, or in terms of the gender of its owners. Instead, most of the variation in outcomes can be linked to the type of outlet, raising specific types of outlets as a key focus when seeking to foster the supply of healthier foods in the food environment.
Production and consumption traits and the adoption of improved maize varieties: Evidence from seed sample packs and cooking demonstrations
(Working Paper, 2025-03) Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia; Kramer, Berber; Trachtman, Carly; Abate, Gashaw T.
In developing countries, semi-subsistence farmers typically assume dual roles as both consumers and producers of the same crops, which shape their adoption decisions as they balance household food security with market-driven incentives. This study, conducted in eastern Uganda, employs a field experiment with two intervention arms to assess the relative importance of these factors in farmers’ decisions to adopt improved maize seed varieties. The first intervention focuses on production traits, distributing free sample packs of an improved hybrid maize variety to showcase benefits such as higher yields, pest resistance, and drought tolerance. The second intervention emphasizes consumption traits, offering cooking demonstrations and blind taste tests using flour from the same improved maize variety to highlight its taste, texture, and ease of preparation. Our findings reveal that while seed sample packs positively influenced farmers’ perceptions of both production and consumption traits, cooking demonstrations primarily affected perceptions of consumption qualities. We find some evidence that the cooking demonstrations and tasting sessions significantly boosted adoption of the improved maize seed variety promoted by the intervention. However, farmers who received seed sample packs tended to recycle the harvested grain as seed in subsequent seasons, thereby crowding out fresh seed purchases. This practice led to productivity losses, suggesting that the seed trial packs did not translate into lasting improvements in food security or increased market participation.
Guilty pleasures: Expenditure elasticities of ultra-processed foods and paid meals in India
(Working Paper, 2025-03-26) Kishore, Avinash; Gupta, Manavi
The rising consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and paid food away from home (FAFH) is a growing concern for developing countries like India, which face the double burden of persistent malnutrition and increasing obesity. This paper examines the trends and drivers of UPF and paid meal consumption in rural and urban India from 2014 to 2019. Using high-frequency household consumption survey data, we estimate the expenditure elasticity of these food categories. Our results show a significant increase in the consumption of UPFs and paid meals over the study period. The expenditure elasticity of both UPF and FAFH exceeds 1 on average, indicating that they are highly responsive to income growth. Notably, poorer and urban households display higher elasticities compared to wealthier and rural households. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition reveals that rising incomes and evolving dietary preferences contribute to the increase in UPF and paid meal consumption. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to promote healthier food choices, especially among lower-income groups, as India's economy continues to grow.
Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges
(Working Paper, 2025-03-18) Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
This study analyzes the past performance and future opportunities and challenges of Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS). The study measures the current size and structure of AFS and its historical contribution to economic growth and transformation through a data-driven exercise. A forward-looking economywide model is used to assess the effectiveness of future AFS growth (led by agricultural productivity gains in different value chains) in promoting multiple development outcomes. The findings of the study indicate that AFS transformation is an important part of Tajikistan’s economic transformation and structural change. Because of lower growth contributions from AFS’s off-farm components as well as fewer farm workers moving from primary agriculture to off-farm activities within AFS, Tajikistan’s AFS did not grow as quickly as the broader economy. Expanding off-farm activities to boost on-farm productivity growth remains a challenge for sustainable transformation of Tajikistan’s AFS. Using an economywide model, we find that there is no single value chain group that would most effectively achieve all desired development outcomes including broad economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets. Livestock value chains, however, have the most potential to contribute to multiple development outcomes, particularly to dietary improvement, and these value chains also performed impressively during the study period. Moreover, most cattle and ruminants are owned by household farms, and their growth could contribute to broader agricultural transformation. The maize value chain also ranks high in the model-based comparison, but it seems to only modestly contribute to job creation and diet quality and had performed disappointingly during the study period. While growth in livestock and maize value chains face a series of challenges and constraints, promoting them together seems to offer an effective way to broadly achieve important development outcomes.
Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system
(Working Paper, 2025-03-07) Resnick, Danielle; Abushama, Hala; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid
Armed actors, including militaries and paramilitaries, are heavily entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often resulting in negative implications for both agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. However, the role of armed actors is overlooked in the scholarship on the governance of agricultural value chains. To address this gap, this paper focuses on the role of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper traces how the SAF and RSF initially gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with each other, and the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that these actors decide to pursue investments in certain value chains depending on the extent to which the private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required to attain more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used by SAF and RSF in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent extraction, competition through biased licensing and quota allocations, acquiescence to existing private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when potential is high and the private sector is absent. We show how these strategies manifest across value chains as diverse as livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Given that economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023 armed conflict, identifying how these strategies emerged and manifested not only contributes to the literature on business-state relations but also expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.
‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea
(Working Paper, 2025-02) Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian
This item is currently unavailable due to an in-process journal submission. Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs (such as REDD+ and voluntary carbon credit programs) have been designed to provide improved forest governance, reduced carbon emissions and diversified income sources for forest communities. However, recent evaluations of REDD+ projects across diverse countries have shown mixed results. In 2022, the government of Papua New Guinea put a moratorium on voluntary carbon credit programs due to inadequately specified processes on contract design and targeting, resulting in ongoing deforestation and lack of transparent remuneration in participating communities under select programs. As the country reassesses how to engage in voluntary carbon credit programs, this study aims to inform the design of PES programs tailored to meet the needs of forest landholders. Using recently collected rural household survey data, we evaluate the unique characteristics that are correlated with forest-owning households’ likelihood of accepting a PES contract. The discrete choice experiments included in the survey, and complementary focus group discussions suggest that forest landholders prefer PES contracts with higher financial incentives and lower land area commitments, requiring an additional $39.07 per hectare per year to preserve all forested land compared to committing half of their forested land to a PES contract. Other factors, such as household size, the use of forest land for timber production and commercial logging, ongoing forest preservation activities within a community and market access also influence respondents’ preferences for PES contracts.
Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Poverty analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey
(Working Paper, 2025-02) Mahrt, Kristi; Schmidt, Emily; Fang, Peixun; Mukerjee, Rishabh
This analysis provides the first poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea in 1.5 decades. The cost of basic needs poverty methodology is the standard approach to estimating poverty in low- and middle-income countries. It aims to reflect the cost of a food basket and nonfood needs to secure a healthy life and minimum standard of living. Using the cost of basic needs approach, we calculate and compare two poverty measurements. First, we compute a standard (traditional) cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by a dietary energy (calorie) threshold. Second, we extend the standard cost of basic needs approach to calculate a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold, as well as recommended nutrition targets. Results suggest that 43 percent of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. When recalculating the poverty line to account for a healthy diet threshold (a mix of food groups set at quantities consistent with dietary guidelines), we find that 64 percent of the sample is below the healthy diet poverty line. On average, households within the survey sample over-consume the recommended daily quantity of staples and fats, however daily consumption of vegetables, fruits, and protein-rich foods (e.g., fish, meat, nuts) fall short of recommended targets. The above poverty analysis begs the question of what characteristics are associated with higher income earning households (we use per capita consumption-expenditure as the rural income proxy). Regression analysis suggests that greater production assets (land and labor), education, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household incomes. While we hypothesized that households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e. cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) would be significantly better off, we find that only cocoa farming households have significantly higher incomes. The regression analysis reveals that facilitated access to a market is one of the most important indicators explaining per capita consumption-expenditure (i.e. income per person). Households that are more than 4 hours from a market have about 25 percent less income compared to households that are within 2 hours from a market. Conversely, households that report owning a small business (non-farm enterprise) are associated with approximately 25 percent greater consumption-expenditure per capita. While market access and income diversification are important to household incomes, weather shocks such as floods are associated with significant declines (8 percent) in per capita consumption-expenditure. Given the above results, a pilot social safety net program in more remote (greater than 4 hours from a market) and flood prone areas, where household incomes are significantly lower, may provide important insights on the most efficient mechanisms to build resilience among PNG’s vulnerable population. Including a community asset building component (e.g., building and maintenance of rural feeder roads and bridges) in the social safety net program could be tested to understand how best to support rural-urban market linkages and incentivize off-farm employment. Understanding that a social safety net program requires significant resourcing (including financial, logistics and time), there are other opportunities to improve rural welfare within the country. Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households via electronic banking services and easing banking costs for rural households may increase remittance payments. In addition, facilitating access to primary education via reduced school fees and increasing school attendance via school feeding programs could provide greater income earning opportunities for better educated households, as well as (if designed properly) fill some of the nutrition gaps demonstrated by the large share of individuals that live under the healthy diet poverty line presented in this paper.
Alianzas para la Innovación Agroalimentaria en Bolivia: Lecciones para la Formulación de Políticas
(Working Paper, 2008-06) Hartwich, Frank; Ampuero, Luis; Arispe, Tito; Eguez, Vicente; Mendoza, Jaime; Alexaki, Nancy
"La innovación es la introducción exitosa de nuevos conocimientos y tecnologías en los procesos social y productivo. Las formas convencionales de fomentar la innovación en la agricultura y la industria alimentaria en los países en desarrollo a menudo han enfatizado la transferencia de tecnología y conocimiento de los científicos a los extensionistas y, posteriormente, a los productores. Sin embargo, el hecho de que se ha reconocido que existen también otros actores, como los productores vecinos, miembros de la familia, proveedores de insumos agrícolas, compradores, gobiernos locales, proyectos de desarrollo y muchos más, que contribuyen al desarrollo y la utilización de las innovaciones, recientemente ha abierto nuevas oportunidades de iniciar intervenciones de desarrollo. Por ejemplo, han surgido en muchos países en desarrollo alianzas que son apoyadas por los gobiernos y los organismos de desarrollo, y en las que una gama amplia de actores intercambian información acerca de aspectos importantes de la innovación, contribuyen a la generación y difusión de nuevos conocimientos y tecnologías, y participan de manera conjunta en los procesos de aprendizaje colectivo. En este informe se analizan las alianzas entre los pequeños productores y otros actores que se orientan a generar innovaciones en el sector agroalimentario de Bolivia. Se estudiaron 16 alianzas localizadas en tres subsectores ––cereales andinos, oleaginosas y piscicultura–– en torno a: (a) el contexto político e institucional en el que surgieron; (b) la forma en que funcionan, destribuyen los beneficios entre los socios y generan sinergias en el aprendizaje y el desarrollo de tecnología; (c) su desempeño en la relación entre costos y beneficios; y (d) su evolución en el tiempo. Se recolectó esta información mediante entrevistas a los representantes de los socios y las entidades promotoras que participan en cada una de las alianzas. La información recopilada fue complementada con visitas individuales y grupales a 60 productores y/o representantes de las organizaciones de productores. Los resultados del estudio demuestran que las alianzas son un fenómeno reciente en Bolivia. Se dan en todas las zonas agroecológicas del país e incluyen organizaciones de productores, organismos de desarrollo y ONG, entidades de financiamiento gubernamentales y paraestatales, así como proveedores públicos y privados de conocimiento y tecnología, incluyendo universidades, centros de investigación semi-privados y asociaciones de productores. Con la excepción de tres alianzas, todas las estudiadas fueron financiadas por el gobierno o donadores internacionales, además de recibir algunos aportes menores de parte de los productores, los proveedores de conocimiento y los compradores. Entre los socios que se suponía que recibirían los mayores beneficios de la alianza ––es decir, los pequeños productores–– la contribución promedio alcanzó menos del 1% de su valor total. Las alianzas para la innovación se dan en los subsectores de alimentos básicos y se encargan particularmente de variedades mejoradas, pero también existen en los subsectores de cultivos comerciales, como los cereales de zonas andinas (quinua) para exportación o la piscicultura, donde se enfrentan a problemas relacionados con la reducción de costos, la calidad de los alimentos, el procesamiento y el mercadeo. El contexto político e institucional en el que se crean las alianzas para la innovación en el sector agroalimentario de Bolivia no es ideal, debido a por lo menos cuatro razones: (a) la limitada confianza e interés de los productores y otros actores en colaborar en una alianza; (b) la falta de oportunidades de reunirse con otros actores para planificar e iniciar una colaboración; (c) el predominio de mecanismos de financiamiento que no fomentan el establecimiento de alianzas; y (d) los obstáculos administrativos en el Sistema Boliviano de Tecnología Agropecuaria (SIBTA), el mecanismo de promoción de innovación agrícola más importante del país. En general, los socios entienden los beneficios de la colaboración cuando se trata de acceder a mercados y proyectos, y, en menor grado, los efectos positivos del aprendizaje en conjunto. Los socios inician los contactos con base principalmente en sus relaciones anteriores; este es el caso particularmente de las relaciones entre los productores y los extensionistas privados. En unos cuantos casos, los contactos se establecieron en foros de programas que reunieron actores de los territorios y de las cadenas de valor agrícolas. La mayoría de las alianzas se crean con base en los subsidios y oportunidades de financiamiento brindadas por el gobierno o los organismos de desarrollo. Sin estos subsidios, los socios normalmente consideran que los riesgos asociados con las alianzas son demasiado altos. Gran parte de las alianzas fueron formadas en respuesta a proyectos patrocinados por el SIBTA. Sin embargo, el SIBTA no da suficiente cabida al desarrollo de colaboraciones estrechas que permiten que se den los procesos del aprendizaje en conjunto. En cuanto al funcionamiento de las alianzas, los resultados revelan que éstas no suelen realizar plenamente su potencial porque los socios clave carecen de un entendimiento claro de sus papeles y obligaciones dentro de las mismas. El desempeño de las alianzas es limitado cuando los socios asumen una postura pasiva, como de simples receptores. No obstante, en las alianzas en las que los socios han colaborado en el pasado, éstos entienden mejor sus papeles. Algunos individuos u organizaciones participantes, sobre todo los proveedores de conocimiento y tecnología, brindan un excelente liderazgo debido a su buena reputación, sus capacidades y su visión. Cuando esto falta en una alianza, lo más probable es que los socios no organicen las actividades iniciales. Algunos organismos de financiamiento han asumido un papel activo en promover una alianza y, en consecuencia, ha mejorado notablemente su funcionamiento. Con algunas excepciones, las alianzas en Bolivia tienen una estructura organizacional muy parca, basada en los planes de operación descritos en las respectivas propuestas de proyecto. En el caso de una alianza orientada a realizar operaciones más diversas y complejas, una administración basada menos en el consenso y que consume menos tiempo, suele ser más adecuada. El flujo de información en las alianzas estudiadas varía según los socios y existe una clara correlación entre un flujo de información más ágil y el desempeño. Sin embargo, algunas alianzas tienen problemas para difundir la información a todos sus socios; por ejemplo, a veces los productores sólo reciben la información que el proveedor de conocimiento y tecnología considera necesaria para que adopten la tecnología. Normalmente hay una mejor diseminación de información acerca de los mercados y las ventas que de información tecnológica. Pese a todos los esfuerzos, en la mayoría de las alianzas, la difusión de información aún no es de una calidad que permita crear una cultura de aprendizaje conjunto en apoyo a la generación de innovaciones. Los problemas de funcionamiento de las alianzas también afectan su desempeño. El presente estudio no recogió información cuantitativa sobre el desempeño de las alianzas ni sobre los resultados y los impactos del uso de las innovaciones generadas por éstas. Sin embargo, sí arrojó resultados cualitativos respecto a las ventajas de la colaboración para cada uno de los socios. Cualquier colaboración brinda a los socios la oportunidad de adquirir nuevas capacidades y destrezas en la producción, el procesamiento y el mercadeo, ya sea porque aprenden de sus compañeros o porque aprenden junto con ellos. Los socios se beneficiarán de las oportunidades siempre y cuando la alianza facilite una comunicación activa y fluida, o proporcione espacios para que los socios reflexionen sobre posibles soluciones, dialoguen y realicen experimentación conjunta. Las 16 alianzas estudiadas se quedan cortas en este aspecto porque no pasaron de la fase inicial. El compromiso de los socios fue limitado y esto, a su vez, afectó el desempeño de la alianza. En unos pocos casos, se observó que la alianza evolucionó con el tiempo y los socios aprendieron acerca de los beneficios que se generaron como resultado del compromiso asumido. Se hicieron pocos esfuerzos por lograr una evolución positiva de la alianza y ajustarla a las cambiantes condiciones tecnológicas, institucionales y de mercado. Varias de las alianzas tienen una capacidad limitada de continuar sin percibir subsidios de terceras partes. Las alianzas que operan en áreas y líneas de productos que son comercialmente sólidas y que permiten a los socios generar utilidades, y aquéllas que cuentan con inversiones sustanciales por parte del sector privado, tienen mayores probabilidades de continuar una vez que el financiamiento (del proyecto) por parte de terceros termina. No obstante, a la mayoría de los socios les falta una visión comercial y se quedan en las alianzas para asegurar los subsidios actuales y otras inversiones que podrían recibir en el futuro gracias a sus relaciones con los donadores y los proveedores de tecnología. De acuerdo con la filosofía de “proyecto”, los socios prefieren seguir el plan y a menudo no visualizan las oportunidades que surgen en respuesta a las cambiantes condiciones en los mercados y los conocimientos tecnológicos. En conclusión, las deficiencias identificadas en la creación y orientación de las alianzas obstruyen la generación y la difusión de innovaciones en el sector agroalimentario de Bolivia. El estudio identificó muchas alianzas que no han evolucionado más allá de las fases iniciales. La mayoría no genera suficientes utilidades para que algunos de los socios justifiquen su participación en ellas. En el ámbito de desarrollo actual, se dedica mucha atención a las alianzas y existe la tendencia a crear alianzas inadecuadas, en las que los socios no aportan siquiera lo mínimo; por lo tanto, tienen poca motivación para asumir un compromiso y generar beneficios para todos. Los organismos de desarrollo y los gobiernos siguen promoviendo la modalidad de proyectos en la que existen proveedores y receptores de conocimiento y tecnología, lo cual no es conducente al desarrollo de verdaderas alianzas con muchos distintos tipos de socios orientados a la generación de innovaciones agroalimentarias que aprovechen el potencial que surge de compartir recursos y del aprendizaje conjunto. Con base en el análisis del estudio, se formularon una serie de recomendaciones que ayudarán a los tomadores de decisiones que participan en las alianzas orientadas a generar innovaciones agroalimentarias (representantes de organizaciones de productores, entidades de extensión y empresas privadas), así como aquéllos que las promueven (organismos gubernamentales y de desarrollo, gerentes de fondos): El crear una alianza no es siempre una opción útil. Aquéllos que participan en las alianzas o que las promueven deben asegurar que existen las condiciones indispensables para crearlas. Las alianzas tienen que generar sinergia al reunir conocimientos y recursos, y permitir el aprendizaje y la solución de problemas; asimismo, necesitan generar beneficios proporcionales para todos los socios. En especial, cada socio debe percibir que los beneficios que recibe superan los costos de su participación. Para averiguar si estas condiciones existen, es necesario realizar un análisis profundo de las oportunidades tecnológicas y de las demandas e intereses de todos los socios. Los representantes de organizaciones asociadas tienen que asegurarse que éstas no ingresen en las alianzas sin antes realizar un análisis profundo de las demandas e intereses de todos los socios, así como de las oportunidades tecnológicas de innovar y su potential en el mercado. Las organizaciones que buscan promover la formación de alianzas deben apoyar la realización de este tipo de análisis y, también, el fortalecimiento de la capacidad de análisis de los socios. Los proyectos y programas que promueven la innovación agroalimentaria pueden beneficiarse si adoptan el enfoque de las alianzas, dado que las innovaciones no son generadas por actores aislados, sino más bien mediante la colaboración de muchos en una red de innovación. Los socios tienen que darse cuenta de que el intercambio de información y conocimientos y la búsqueda, entre todos los socios, de soluciones a problemas comunes es un requisito esencial para el éxito de las alianzas y para su propio beneficio. Por eso, es necesario que los líderes de la alianza organicen muchas reuniones, diálogos y ejercicios prácticos en los que todos los socios pueden contribuir sus experiencias y conocimientos. Las alianzas requieren una estructura organizacional que refleje la participación de numerosos actores; no es suficiente una estructura de proyecto basada en un contrato de provisión de servicios. Al principio, la organización necesita ser sencilla y sin jerarquías para permitir la libre participación de todos los socios. Al madurar la alianza y con la participación en actividades cada vez más complejas, surge la delegación y subordinación de tareas. Los programas y mecanismos de financiamiento deberían ampliar su visión y abarcar proyectos que operan en la modalidad de las alianzas; esto permitiría incluir más socios con capacidades complementarias. Asimismo, deberían permitir una re-orientación flexible de los planes de operación y la integración de nuevos socios durante el ciclo del proyecto. Durante la vida de los proyectos, se deberán buscar opciones para garantizar una colaboración continuada entre los socios, aun después de que cese el financiamiento externo. Los proyectos de alianzas se benefician del apoyo económico y organizacional durante sus fases iniciales y también requieren el establecimiento de relaciones contractuales más complejas, que sobrepasen la modalidad de proyectos, con mecanismos capaces de manejar los diversos intereses y niveles de co-financiamiento ––no sólo para poder alcanzar las metas del co-financiamiento, sino también para lograr que los productores asuman el compromiso. Los gobiernos y los organismos de desarrollo podrían también visualizar plataformas de apoyo que permitan a los socios en las cadenas de valor agrícola y en regiones específicas reunirse, planificar e iniciar alianzas. Durante estas reuniones, se debe enfatizar el análisis de las necesidades e intereses de los socios, así como las oportunidades tecnológicas y de mercado. Cuando los actores identifican que existen posibilidades de colaborar y asumen el compromiso, no se requiere de financiamiento de terceras partes. En otros casos, se necesita financiamiento para que los actores empiecen a tomar los primeros pasos hacia la colaboración. Aún no existe un número suficiente de entidades que brinden apoyo técnico en la promoción de la innovación mediante la creación de alianzas. Sería muy ventajoso crear capacidades que permitieran a actores especializados identificar los posibles socios, realizar estudios de factibilidad con base en las demandas tecnológicas y las condiciones de mercado, y acompañar la creación y evaluación de alianzas." -- from Authors' Abstract
Agrifood value chains in India: A state-level analysis using a social accounting matrix
(Working Paper, 2025-01-27) Pal, Barun Deb; Thurlow, James; Pauw, Karl; Diao, Xinshen; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh
This study describes disparities in per capita income, in the structure of the economy, and in agrifood systems (AFS) across states in India. We use the gross value added (GVA) obtained from state-specific agrifood value chains (AVCs) to describe the size and structure of the AFS in each state of India. This study also presents the size of employment and variability in labor productivity within the AFS across states. A special focus is given to female and youth employment in the state specific AVCs. The 2017/18 state-level social accounting matrix (SAM) for India is the primary data source for estimating statewise GVA from the AFS. Periodic Labor Force Survey data are used to estimate the size of AFS employment. Our results reveal that the bottom half of the Indian population has an average per capita income of US$1,019, 2.5 times lower than that of the top half. India’s AFS is valued at $756 billion, or 31 percent of its GVA. Primary agriculture comprises 59 percent of the AFS, and off-farm activities the rest. The share of off-farm activities in the AFS rises moving from lower-income states to higher-income states, corroborating the theory of structural transformation. The national average share of female workers in total employment is 23 percent and the majority of women who do work are engaged in primary agriculture. The share of women employed in the primary agriculture sector does not change between low- and high-income states in India. In contrast, the share of youth in primary agriculture declines between lower- and higher-income states. Since state governments in India are empowered to design their own policy and development strategies, this study provides an important policy insight to both the federal (central) and state governments.
Stakeholder disconnect: Differences between farmers, extension workers, and researchers on preferred strategies for timely wheat sowing in Bihar, India
(Working Paper, 2025-01-22) Gupta, Shweta; Kishore, Avinash; Burton, Michael
Late sowing of wheat is a persistent problem in South Asia despite widespread awareness that it lowers crop yields. We asked 2034 farmers, 33 researchers, and 114 frontline extension workers (EW) in Bihar, India to rank 6 commonly recommended solutions for their effectiveness. Respondents faced repeated rounds of best-worst choices to obtain a full ranking of the options. Responses were analyzed using random utility models. Farmers ranked timely and affordable irrigation as the most effective solution and zero-tillage (ZT) the least effective one; researchers ranked ZT the highest. The EW were somewhere in the middle. A better understanding of the reasons behind the differences in the assessments of researchers, extension personnel, and farmers about what will work the best will generate better solutions.
The state of food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages
(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Headey, Derek D.
Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, humanitarian advocacy efforts, and rationally allocating foreign aid. Longstanding dissatisfaction with the FAO’s undernourishment indicator prompted the development of new metrics in recent decades, including the FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and the unaffordability of healthy diets. However, no previous research has assessed whether food insecurity and poverty indicators are in broad agreement on which countries are insecure/poor, and whether global food insecurity is rising or falling. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. At the country level, FIES severe food insecurity is often higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in Niger and other extremely poor African countries. On global trends, the FAO reports increasing undernourishment and FIES food insecurity over 2014-2022, whereas the World Bank reports monetary poverty declining and healthy diets becoming more affordable. Moreover, trends in FAO food security indicators are not statistically explained by hypothesized factors cited in FAO reports, such as conflict or climate change, and increases in the FAO’s calorie consumption inequality metric are inconsistent with declining income inequality reported by the World Bank. We provide four concrete suggestions to improve food security measurement and monitoring: (1) the FAO should cease modelling undernourishment; (2) new independent studies should re-evaluate the FIES and test new metrics; (3) international agencies should implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose, open-access surveys; and (4) researchers should further improve the “nowcasting” of poverty and food insecurity for data-scarce crisis contexts.

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