IFPRI Briefs

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Clustering shrimp farms in Bangladesh: A novel effort with mixed outcomes
(Brief, 2025-05-21) Kabir, Razin; Belton, Ben; Narayanan, Sudha; Sakil, Abdul Zabbar; Khan, Asraul Hoque; Hernandez, Ricardo
Organizing smallholder farmers in clusters has been widely promoted as a way to boost agricultural productivity, streamline delivery of extension services, and improve access to markets. In Bangladesh, where shrimp is an important export crop produced largely by smallholders, government and industry view clustering as key to preventing Bangladesh being left behind in an increasingly competitive global market. Bangladesh’s shrimp exports are highly dependent on the hotel, restaurant, and catering (HoReCa) sector in Europe—a small and relatively low value market segment. Gaining access to the much larger and potentially more lucrative retail market segment in Europe and North America requires high quality, traceable, and - increasingly - certified, shrimp, posing a challenging for Bangladesh.
Informing CAADP 2026–2035: What a decade of IFPRI Research in Africa tells us
(Brief, 2025-05-20) Ulimwengu, John M.; Hema, Aboubacar; Marivoet, Wim; Omamo, Steven Were
This policy brief distills insights from a decade of IFPRI’s research and engagement across 54 African countries, offering a strategic synthesis to inform the Kampala 2026–2035 implementation phase of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). Drawing from almost 5,700 publications between 2015 and 2025, and using a combination of natural language processing (NLP), deep learning algorithms and rule-based approaches, the review maps key findings against CAADP’s six strategic objectives: (1) intensifying sustainable food production, agro-industrialization, and trade; (2) boosting investment and financing for agrifood systems transformation; (3) ensuring food and nutrition security; (4) advancing inclusivity and equitable livelihoods; (5) building resilient agrifood systems; and (6) strengthening agrifood systems governance. By aligning evidence with strategic priorities, this synthesis aims to sharpen the research and policy agenda needed to accelerate agricultural transformation, ensure food security, and deepen resilience across the continent. The review reveals areas of significant progress—such as advances innovative finance, nutrition policy, social protection design, gender equity, and market functioning—while also exposing enduring gaps in data, investment diagnostics, and imple mentation capacity. The brief is thus both a stocktaking and a springboard, harnessing what is known to guide the next phase of CAADP.
Strengthening women’s livelihoods through the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA): Policy strategies for resilience and inclusion: The Bhubaneshwar Charter
(Brief, 2025-05-20) Narayanan, Sudha; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Kosec, Katrina; Paul, Meekha Hannah; Kumar, Deepak; Agnihotri, Satish B.; Murthy, Indu K.; Sarathy, Partha; Panda, Aditi
Globally, there is increasing recognition of the significant potential for social protection programs to sup-port sustainable livelihoods and build household resilience to climatic and economic shocks (Jordan et al., 2021; Norton et al., 2020). For women—who disproportionately bear the burden of these shocks—such programs serve as a critical safety net and a pathway to economic empowerment (Kosec et al., 2023; Mason & Agan, 2015). Yet, the extent to which social protection delivers on this promise depends on robust financing, inclusive program design, and effective implementation. Evidence suggests that public interventions often fall short in addressing gender inequalities, and that complementary efforts must be made to redress entrenched disadvantages that women might face in shaping, accessing, and benefiting from these programs.
Rwanda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development
(Brief, 2025-05-07) Aragie, Emerta A.; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Xu, Valencia Wenqian
In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Rwanda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple devel opment outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while extension and advisory services on livestock and climate emerge as the most efficient farmer-facing investments. However, crop ex tension services rank least in cost-effectiveness for economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.
Uganda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development
(Brief, 2025-05-07) Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Hashim; Jones, Eleanor
In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Uganda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their impact on environmental footprints, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while livestock extension services rank highest among the farmer-facing investments. Most R&D related interventions rank lowest in terms of cost-effectiveness at achieving economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effec tive investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when ex treme production shocks occur.
Ethiopia: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development
(Brief, 2025-05-07) Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Pauw, Karl; Jones, Eleanor
In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Ethiopia’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) traders and processors are shown to be the most cost effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Extension services for livestock, credit for farmers, R&D (agronomy), and safety nets also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.
Transforming fallow lands: An impact evaluation of the Comprehensive Rice Fallow Management (CRFM) Program in Odisha
(Brief, 2025-04-30) Roy, Devesh; Padhee, Arabinda Kumar; Pradhan, Mamata; Saroj, Sunil; Vidhani, Vandana; Kumar, Devendra; Kumar Burman, Amit
The Comprehensive Rice Fallow Management (CRFM) program, initiated by the Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Empowerment (DAFE), Government of Odisha, is a program to address the underutilization of rice fallow lands in Odisha, particularly during the Rabi (post-monsoon) season which occurs following the Kharif (monsoon) paddy harvest. CRFM was implemented to encourage cultivation of pulses and oilseeds that thrive on residual soil moisture. The CRFM program was implemented in 20 districts of Odisha, in collaboration with the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Government of India empaneled agencies that have a presence in the state and prior experience in similar programs. In the remaining 10 districts of the state, the CRFM program was implemented by the state government’s Chief District Agriculture Officers (CDAOs). The impacts of CRFM interventions evaluated in this study comprise crop demonstrations organized in clusters of at least 20 hectares, with crops like black gram, green gram, chickpeas, lentils, grass peas, sesamum, and mustard.
Navigating Nigeria’s food system challenges in the face of inflation and reform
(Brief, 2025-04-24) Omamo, Steven Were; Andam, Kwaw S.; Balana, Bedru; Amare, Mulubrhan; Popoola, Olufemi; Nwagboso, Chibuzo
Main Messages: 1. Low-income households in both urban and rural areas are hardest hit by rising food prices. Post-reform (fuel subsidies removal and exchange rate liberalization) price shocks and persistent inflation have disproportionately affected poor urban and rural households, forcing them to reduce food consumption and dietary diversity. Malnutrition and food insecurity are on the rise, particularly among children and women-headed households, with sharpest impacts in conflict-affected areas. 2. Small-scale farmers are not benefiting proportionately from price increases. Despite surging food prices, small-scale farmers face escalating input costs, poor market access, and structural in-efficiencies that leave them with marginal gains far below the rate of inflation. 3. Trading networks maintain healthy margins, amplifying systemic inefficiencies. Traders and intermediaries dominate the food supply chain, passing on increased costs to consumers while pre-serving or even increasing their profit margins, highlighting inequities in the distribution of benefits along the value chain. 4. Recent economic reforms and external shocks exacerbate structural weaknesses. Economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate adjustments, have amplified existing challenges in the food system, including high transport costs, inadequate infrastructure, and fragmented markets. 5. Policy interventions should protect vulnerable groups and strengthen local food systems. Addressing these disparities requires targeted safety nets for consumers, support for small-scale farmers, and systemic investments to reduce inefficiencies in the value chain while promoting cli-mate-resilient food systems.
Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04) Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are national economy and population of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to PNG’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?
Ethiopia: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04) Mukashov, Askar; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Ethiopia’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Ethiopia’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?
Egypt: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04) Mukashov, Askar; Diao, Xinshen; Ecker, Olivier; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Egypt’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Egypt’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?
Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04-11) Mukashov, Askar; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Uganda’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources: 1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and 2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Uganda economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather. The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment. The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Uganda. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors. The results suggest that domestic production volatility is the primary risk factor affecting GDP and poverty in Uganda, whereas world markets and domestic risks are equally important for household consumption and undernourishment. Individually, the most critical risk factors identified include production volatility in root crops, volatility in foreign capital flows, and volatility in fishery production, with the latter being particularly significant for rural low-income households. Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.
Ghana: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
(Brief, 2025-04-11) Mukashov, Askar; Pauw, Karl; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Ghana’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources: 1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and 2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Ghanaian economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather. The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment. The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Ghana. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors. The results suggest that Ghana’s trade-oriented economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with fluctuations in world prices of key exports—particularly energy and metals—significantly influencing eco nomic activity and the country’s ability to finance imports. Poverty and undernourishment risks present a more complex picture, with a significant difference between urban and rural risk factors. Rural households, which are generally poorer than urban households and constitute the majority of the poor and undernourished population, are more exposed to domestic production volatility factors. Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.
Increasing access to and uptake of livestock vaccines and women’s empowerment with gender-responsive vaccine delivery systems
(Brief, 2025-03-30) Galiè, Alessandra ; Njiru, Nelly; Omondi, Immaculate A.; Malapit, Hazel J. ; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Lecoutere, Els; Muchiri, Caroline
There are persistent and significant gender gaps in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) which negatively impact productivity, food security and livelihoods. Livestock, particularly chickens, sheep and goats, are essential to sustain livelihoods and nutrition in rural areas of LMICs. They are particularly important to the livelihoods of women and their households given that women farmers in rural areas have few alternative ways of making a living. Preventable, deadly diseases such as Newcastle (ND) and Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), however, often decimate flocks of chicken and herds of sheep and goats. Vaccines to prevent these diseases exist, yet livestock keepers, particularly women in rural areas, infrequently use them. Without these interventions, the health and productivity of the animals are compromised and so is women’s ability to support their livelihoods and that of their households. Both technological and social factors limit access to and uptake of livestock vaccines. For example, technological factors may include a lack of cold chain infrastructure to transport the livestock vaccines. Socio-institutional factors may include informal rules in a community that forbid women from liaising with unrelated men, reducing their ability to obtain animal health services and vaccines from vets (who are almost exclusively men). The empowerment of women is often seen as a way of addressing gender-based disadvantage and providing women with the capabilities to leverage livestock to support their livelihoods and that of their families. Empowered women farmers are more likely to hear about, access, adopt, utilize and benefit from animal vaccines and healthier livestock. Facilitating women’s empowerment requires addressing women’s limited agency, access to resources, and opportunities. These in turn are influenced by restrictive gender norms, that shape informal rules of behavior and inequitable policies. Gender-responsive policy efforts bundled with interventions that transform restrictive norms could potentially support women’s engagement in the livestock sector and their potential to get empowered.
A synthesis of changes in women’s empowerment from Cultivate Africa’s Future agricultural development projects
(Brief, 2025-03-30) Malapit, Hazel J.; Galiè, Alessandra; Njiru, Nelly; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Omondi, Immaculate A.; Lecoutere, Els; Muchiri, Caroline
There are few examples of assessments of project portfolios that aim to support women’s empowerment in agriculture and livestock in low- and middle-income countries and that employ a consistent framework and standardized, validated measures of women’s empowerment across the entirety of the projects (see also Baltenweck et al. 2024). This brief synthesizes and presents lessons about women’s empowerment from the achievements of a portfolio of agricultural development projects, where empowerment was consistently measured across the portfolio using the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI). We address two key research questions: (i) What did the agricultural development projects achieve in terms of women’s empowerment? How does this aggregate at the project portfolio level? (ii) What is the significance and some of the key applications of the results to inform future policies, program implementation, extension work and other agriculture-related interventions that aim to support women’s empowerment?
Repurposing fertilizer subsidies in India: An economywide modelling analysis
(Brief, 2025-03) Devi, Asha; Praveen, K. V.; Sharma, Kriti; Pal, Barun Deb; Singh, Alka; Barman, Subrata; Reddy, K. R.; Hanji, Shreya; Rao, Ch. Srinivasa
Between 1980 and 2023-pushed by green revolution technology and fertilizer subsidy policy-fertilizer consumption in India increased from 31.95 kg/ha to 136.05 kg/ha {FAI 2024). The fiscal burden of fertilizer subsidies in India has surged dramatically, increasing from INR 505 crores in 1980/1981 to INR 2,25,220 crores in 2022/2023 ( ibid). As of 2022/2023, the budgetary allocation for fertilizer subsidy was 1.02 percent of India's gross value added (GVA). Fertilizer subsidies have led to greater price increases for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers than for urea, making urea the preferred choice among farmers. This consequent overreliance on urea has created significant imbalances in soil nutrient composition, and subsidized urea is also often diverted to other industries undermining its intended benefit for the agricultural sector.
Impact of rice export ban on Indian economy
(Brief, 2025-03) V. R., Renjini; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh; Pal, Barun Deb; Singh, Alka; Nandi, Sukhendu; Naik, P. Bhargav; Naorem, Yoihenba; Mazumder, Chiranjit; Rao, Ch. Srinivasa
In India, rice is an important crop that provides livelihood opportunity for millions of farmers and ensures food security for the 1.4 billion population. India also contributes 25 percent of global rice production and 40 percent of global rice exports, exporting 16 percent of its domestic rice production (FAO 2022). On the other hand, delayed onset of monsoon, extreme weather events, and weather variability significantly affect rice production and the domestic price of rice in the country (Palanisami et al. 201 7; Bowden, Foster, Parkes 2023). In response to this situation, policymakers frequently reassess export strategies to ensure adequate domestic supply and to control price fluctuations. Given India's significant contribution to the global rice market, any change in rice trade policy to stabilize the domestic rice market in India will affect the global supply chain of rice and the livelihood of lndian farmers. In 2022/2023, in an effort to control rice prices, the government-imposed export restrictions on different varieties of rice such as broken, brown, non-basmati, basmati, and parboiled rice. Figure 1 reveals that total rice exports from India declined from 16.55 lakh metric tons (mt) to 7.58 lakh mt between July 2023 and November 2023, following the July 2023 ban on non-basmati white rice exports. In August 2023, exports of non-basmati white rice declined sharply from 3.81 lakh mt to 0.40 lakh mt, and exports remained negligible until the ban was lifted in February 2024. Parboiled rice also saw a decline, though it was less severe due to selective export allowances. Exports began recovering from early 2024, driven by basmati and parboiled rice. This recovery aligned with India's October 2024 decision to remove the 20 percent export duty on parboiled rice. India's global market share dropped from 35.48 percent in 2022 to 30.46 percent in 2023, creating opportunities for other major rice -exporting countries. Vietnam saw an increase in its exports from 10.52 percent of global share to 11.23 percent, while Pakistan's share rose from 7.75 percent to 8.39 percent. Thailand maintained a steady presence at around 15 percent and the US share rose marginally from 5.62 percent to 5.87 percent. These shifts highlight how India's policy decision disrupted global trade patterns, benefitting competing exporters and altering the international rice market dynamics. Even so, the economywide impact of these restrictions on the Indian economy remains underexplored. While the government aims to maintain domestic price stability, it is unclear how effectively the export ban shields consumers from inflation and how this compares to the income losses experienced by exporters and farmers. Questions also persist about the policy's spill over effects on overall market dynamics. In this note, we examine the impact of the rice export ban on GDP (by sector), employment, and household income in India. We also provide insights aimed at helping policymakers balance affordability for consumers with stable incomes for producers.
Aid budget cuts have dire consequences for malnutrition among the world’s most vulnerable children
(Brief, 2025-03-26) Standing Together for Nutrition; Osendarp, Saskia; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Brown, Molly; Bryan, Elizabeth; Campbell, Bruce M.; Dinku, Tufa; Ekesa, B.; Fanzo, Jess; Haddad, Lawrence; Ho, Melissa; Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana María; Zougamoré, Robert
Recent aid budgets announced by governments in the US and Europe could cut 2.3 million children off from lifesaving severe acute malnutrition treatment, resulting in 369,000 additional child deaths annually. The US government cuts alone will cause an estimated additional 163,500 annual child deaths that could have been prevented with funding for adequate treatment.
Village agricultural practices: Baseline findings from the FRESH End-to-End Evaluation
(Brief, 2024-12-31) Reynolds, Elise; Mwombeki, Wiston; Kinabo, Joyce; Jeremiah, Kidola; Malindisa, Evangelista; Olney, Deanna K.; Kumar, Neha; Bliznashka, Lilia
Fruit and vegetable (F&V) production is growing rapidly across Tanzania, particularly among rural smallholder farmers. Increased F&V production could help improve diets within these communities and beyond. However, farmers face barriers in increasing production due to lack of access to key agricultural inputs including seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation, among others. Farmers also require financing to access these inputs as well as extension services to increase training and use of these agricultural practices. In response to these needs, the FRESH end-to end approach implemented in two regions in Northern Tanzania aims to increase the desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of F&V through interventions at various points of the food system, including demand creation, food environments and supply (production and post-harvest management). More information on the FRESH end-to-end approach and evaluation can be found in the FRESH Research Brief 1. The effectiveness of the FRESH end-to-end approach in improving vegetable production and F&V intake is being assessed through an impact evaluation conducted in 33 villages across 5 districts in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions of Northern Tanzania. In this research brief, we describe findings on the baseline characteristics of the villages included in the evaluation with a specific emphasis on agricultural inputs, F&V storage and processing facilities, and other relevant agricultural characteristics. We explore these characteristics for the full sample of 33 villages, as well as at the district and regional levels.
Advancing women's voice and empowerment in the agrifood policy process: Findings and recommendations from the WEAGov India Pilot Study
(Brief, 2025-02-18) Ragasa, Catherine; Kyle, Jordan; Yasmin, Sabina; Pande, Harshita; Basu, Sampurna; Sharma, Aanshi; Najjar, Dina
Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-run economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Yet, globally, only 22 percent of members of parliament and 16 percent of cabinet secretaries are women. Although disproportionately employed in the agrifood system, women lack decision-making power regarding the policies that govern it. And beyond high-level statistics like the share of women in national parliaments, there is a lack of tools for measuring and tracking gender equality in national- and state-level governance (ElDidi et al., 2021; Quisumbing et al., 2023; Ragasa et al., 2022). Yet, achieving meaningful progress on gender equality within governance requires identifying specific gaps and opportunities within a country’s policy process.

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