Variability, Risks and Competing Uses

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Research guide for water-energy-food nexus analysis
(Working Paper, 2018-12-03) Ringler, Claudia; Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Paulos, Helen Berga; Mirzabaev, Alisher; Breisinger, Clemens; Wiebelt, Manfred; Siddig, Khalid; Villamor, Grace; Zhu, Tingju; Bryan, Elizabeth
The project titled “The Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Global, Basin and Local Case Studies of Resource Use Efficiency under Growing Natural Resource Scarcity“ (2015-2018), which was supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, and was undertaken as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems. The project set out to develop research methodologies and insights globally as well as for the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Organization (ENTRO) of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to support efforts for enhanced water, energy and food security and environmental sustainability. The toolkit describes both qualitative and quantitative methods that have been used in the research project. It is not meant to be an exhaustive list of information and tools related to the analysis of the water, energy and food (WEF) nexus. The overall focus of the tools has been on economic analysis of the linkages across water, energy and food--to complement other studies and method developments that focus on biophysical linkages across the WEF nexus. The toolkit is aimed, primarily, at researchers interested in the analysis of the water, energy and food nexus. However, the studies summarized here also provide insights for practitioners implementing Nexus projects.
Climate-resilience policies and investments for Egypt’s agriculture sector: Sustaining productivity and food security
(Report, 2021-09-24) Perez, Nicostrato D.; Kassim, Yumna; Ringler, Claudia; Thomas, Timothy S.; ElDidi, Hagar; Breisinger, Clemens
The importance of a resilient agriculture sector in providing food security, livelihoods, and household income was highlighted in many countries by the recent pandemic, as was the capacity of the sector to cushion the negative impacts of the subsequent economic slowdown. This has been the case in Egypt, where agriculture has been resilient to the health crisis in comparison with the service and industry sectors (Breisinger et al. 2020). However, the sector’s resiliency is gradually being corroded by climate change, with lasting, harmful effects for agriculture and food systems. Buy on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0896294188
Water for food systems and nutrition. Food Systems Summit Brief
(Book Chapter, 2021-08) Ringler, Claudia; Agbonlahor, Mure Uhunamure; Baye, Kaleab; Barron, Jennie; Hafeez, Mohsin; Lundqvist, Jan; Meenakshi, J.V.; Mehta, Lyla; Mekonnen, Dawit; Rojas Ortuste, Franz; Tankibayeva, Aliya; Uhlenbrook, Stefan
Access to sufficient and clean freshwater is essential for all life. Water is also essential for food system functioning: as a key input into food production, but also in processing and preparation, and as a food itself. Water scarcity and pollution are growing, affecting poorer populations, particularly food producers. Malnutrition levels are also on the rise, and this is closely linked to water scarcity. The achievement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 and SDG 6 are co-dependent. Solutions to jointly improve food systems and water security outcomes that the United Nations Food Security Summit (UNFSS) should consider include: 1) strengthening efforts to retain water-based ecosystems and their functions; 2) improving agricultural water management for better diets for all; 3) reducing water and food losses beyond the farmgate; 4) coordinating water with nutrition and health interventions; 5) increasing the environmental sustainability of food systems; 6) explicitly addressing social inequities in water-nutrition linkages; and 7) improving data quality and monitoring for water-food system linkages, drawing on innovations in information and communications technology (ICT).
Water for food systems and nutrition
(Book Chapter, 2023-01) Ringler, Claudia; Agbonlahor, Mure Uhunamure; Baye, Kaleab; Barron, Jennie; Hafeez, Mohsin; Lundqvist, Jan; Meenakshi, J.V.; Mehta, Lyla; Mekonnen, Dawit; Rojas Ortuste, Franz; Tankibayeva, Aliya; Uhlenbrook, Stefan
Access to sufficient and clean freshwater is essential for all life. Water is also essential for the functioning of food systems: as a key input into food production, but also in processing and preparation, and as a food itself. Water scarcity and pollution are growing, affecting poorer populations most, and particularly food producers. Malnutrition levels are also on the rise, and this is closely linked to water scarcity. The achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2 and 6 are co-dependent. Solutions for jointly improving food systems and water security outcomes include: (1) strengthening efforts to retain water-based ecosystems and their functions; (2) improving agricultural water management for better diets for all; (3) reducing water and food losses beyond the farmgate; (4) coordinating water with nutrition and health interventions; (5) increasing the environmental sustainability of food systems; (6) explicitly addressing social inequities in water-nutrition linkages; and (7) improving data quality and monitoring for water-food system linkages, drawing on innovations in information and communications technology (ICT). Climate change and other environmental and societal changes make the implementation and scaling of solutions more urgent than ever.
Are landscape approaches possible under authoritarianism? multi-stakeholder governance and social transformation in Myanmar
(Journal Article, 2021-10) Forsyth,T.; Springate-Baginski, O.
Landscape Approaches have been proposed as a transferable model of multi-stakeholder governance, yet assume conditions of ideal speech, trust, and transparency that seem untransferable to authoritarian regimes. This paper argues that building Landscape Approaches under authoritarian conditions cannot be based on a governance deficit model of awaiting idealized political conditions, but instead needs to pay attention to how local social and political structures influence what is deliberated, and by whom. The paper presents evidence from a multi stakeholder environmental intervention around Lake Indawgyi in Kachin State, Myanmar, to draw lessons for transferring Landscapes Approaches under conditions of political authoritarianism, sporadic violent conflict, and rapid socio-economic change. Using information gathered from village surveys and interviews with policy makers, the paper analyzes how multifunctionality, stakeholder engagement, and deliberation are achieved, and with whose influence. The paper argues that common principles of Landscapes Approaches need to acknowledge more how state-led agendas can influence agendas and participation in conservation; but also how the composition and interests of stakeholders are not fixed under socio-economic transformation. Focusing on local and contextual drivers of environmental change and political inequality are more useful for transferring Land scape Approaches to authoritarian regimes than adhering to optimistic principles, or testing associations between variables without reference to context. Indeed, the latter risks depoliticizing conflictual processes, and implicitly endorsing political inequalities. The 2021 military coup in Myanmar has added to these inequalities.
Integrated rice and fish systems
(Brief, 2021) Dubois, M; Akester, M.; Ou, P.; Freed, S.; Leemans, K.; Mam, K.; Silva, Sanjiv de; Smith, B.; Teoh, S. J.; Aung, H. M.; Beveridge, Malcolm C.M.; Marwaha, N.; Phillips, M.
Integrated rice-fish systems generate multiple benefits, including improved incomes, availability of diverse nutritious foods, livelihood options for women and youth, species and ecosystem biodiversity, resource efficiency, and climate change resilience. Realizing specific benefits of a shift to integrated rice-fish production requires an interdisciplinary approach linking technical, social and ecological priorities and outcomes. Spatial and analytical decision support tools can link decision-makers and other stakeholders across sectors, scales and disciplines with end users to better understand outcomes and determine priorities for targeting investments to scale rice-fish systems. Rice-fish systems occur within dynamic multifunctional landscapes. This complexity is shaped by different sector development priorities, their interactions, tradeoffs and impacts. Identifying, quantifying and integrating this data within broader land and water planning processes is crucial when considering suitability, adoption and scaling of integrated rice-fish systems.
Virtual regional dialogue on options to promote more inclusive weather index insurance
(Report, 2021-11-01) Surie, Mandakini D.; Aheeyar, Mohamed M.M.; Silva, Sanjiv de; Raut, Manita
Over the past decade, countries in South Asia have experienced more frequent and intense extreme weather events – floods and droughts – driven by climate change. In 2021 alone, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal experienced intense monsoon rainfall and floods spurred by an erratic monsoon, even as parts of India and Pakistan experienced intense heatwaves and drought The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) latest report released in August 2021, suggests that such events are only likely to increase, noting that at 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees Celsius global warming levels, mean precipitation and monsoon extremes are projected to intensify in summer over India and South Asia.
Consumption patterns and diet gaps across regional Myanmar
(Report, 2021-08-11) Scott, J.M.; Mahrt, K.; Thilsted, Shakuntala H.
Transformation of Rural Landscapes for Sustainable and Nutritious Food Systems is a project that attempts to understand the geographic disparities in both diets and agricultural production systems in Myanmar. Its aim is to devise plausible approaches for environmentally sustainable nutrition-sensitive agriculture under existing conditions as well as possible climate-altered conditions in the future. The project analyzes secondary data at the state and regional level across Myanmar. This technical report presents the findings of a diet analysis based on the Integrated Household Living Conditions Assessment Survey (IHLCA) 2010. The aim of the nutrition component of the study is to understand current diet patterns in Myanmar to determine what makes up the typical local diet and identify what the diet gap is in each location.
Solar or diesel: A comparison of costs for groundwater‐fed irrigation in Sub‐Saharan Africa under two energy solutions
(Journal Article, 2021-04) Xie, H.; Ringler, Claudia; Mondal, Md. A. H.
Sub-Saharan Africa has long been beset with food insecurity and energy poverty. Expanding irrigated agriculture can help boost food production in the region, but this requires energy for accessing water, especially in groundwater-fed irrigation. This paper compared economic performance of groundwater pumping for irrigation under two energy solutions: solar photovoltaic (PV) and diesel fuel. We estimated the life-cycle costs of the power units of two pumping systems for a range of crop and irrigation method scenarios and mapped their relative cost-effectiveness over cropland in sub-Saharan Africa. As a renewable and clean energy source, solar energy has attracted much attention and there is keen interest in investing in solar PV to support the development of irrigated agriculture. Results of this study provide insights into the prospects of promoting solar irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa.
Social cost-benefit analysis of investment in rehabilitation of multipurpose small reservoirs in northern Ghana using an ecosystem services-based approach
(Journal Article, 2021-08) Bekoe, J.; Balana, Bedru B.; Nimoh, F.
Multipurpose small reservoirs are essential infrastructure in providing water for irrigation and non-irrigation uses in water stress areas of northern Ghana. Unfortunately, the flow of multiple ecosystem services from small reservoirs have been declining over several years due to lack of rehabilitation and poor management. Using selected multipurpose small reservoirs and available secondary and survey data, this paper applied an ecosystem services-based approach in the economic analysis of investment in rehabilitation of small reservoirs in northern Ghana. The findings reveal that private financial returns from irrigated crops have negative net present value (NPV) and an internal rate of return (IRR) lower than the cost of capital, implying a lack of economic incentive for private investors in their rehabilitation. However, accounting for the multiple ecosystem services such as livestock watering, fisheries, recreation services, domestic water, and climate regulation show positive NPV and high return on capital (IRR up to 43%). Policy choices would be biased against reservoir development if stakeholders consider only irrigation benefits. Based on the findings we recommend public investment in rehabilitation of multi-purpose small reservoirs to harness the multiple ecosystem services and community livelihoods. We further recommend public–private-user partnership business model to address current management inefficiency and optimize the flows of ecosystem services from small reservoirs to wider community.
Perspective: The importance of water security for ensuring food security, good nutrition, and well-being
(Journal Article, 2021-07) Young, S. L.; Frongillo, E. A.; Jamaluddine, Z.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.; Pérez Escamilla, R.; Ringler, Claudia; Rosinger, A. Y.
Water security is a powerful concept that is still in its early days in the field of nutrition. Given the prevalence and severity of water issues and the many interconnections between water and nutrition, we argue that water security deserves attention commensurate with its importance to human nutrition and health. To this end, we first give a brief introduction to water insecurity and discuss its conceptualization in terms of availability, access, use, and stability. We then lay out the empirical grounding for its assessment. Parallels to the food-security literature are drawn throughout, both because the concepts are analogous and food security is familiar to the nutrition community. Specifically, we review the evolution of scales to measure water and food security and compare select characteristics. We then review the burgeoning evidence for the causes and consequences of water insecurity and conclude with 4 recommendations: 1) collect more water-insecurity data (i.e., on prevalence, causes, consequences, and intervention impacts); 2) collect better data on water insecurity (i.e., measure it concurrently with food security and other nutritional indicators, measure intrahousehold variation, and establish baseline indicators of both water and nutrition before interventions are implemented); 3) consider food and water issues jointly in policy and practice (e.g., establish linkages and possibilities for joint interventions, recognize the environmental footprint of nutritional guidelines, strengthen the nutrition sensitivity of water-management practices, and use experience-based scales for improving governance and regulation across food and water systems); and 4) make findings easily available so that they can be used by the media, community organizations, and other scientists for advocacy and in governance (e.g., tracking progress towards development goals and holding implementers accountable). As recognition of the importance of water security grows, we hope that so too will the prioritization of water in nutrition research, funding, and policy.
From torrents to trickles: Irrigation's future in Africa and Asia
(Journal Article, 2021-10-05) Ringler, Claudia
Irrigation has been a key component of agricultural intensification and transformation in Asia and has the potential to take on the same role in Sub-Saharan Africa. Irrigation has contributed to increased food production, lower food prices, higher rural employment, and overall agricultural and economic growth. At the same time, irrigation—through its large consumptive water use—has accelerated water depletion, degradation, and pollution; moreover, it has benefitted richer farmers more than poorer farmers. This article reviews the contributions and challenges of irrigation and identifies a series of measures to increase the sustainability and equity of irrigation going forward.
Balancing food security and environmental sustainability by optimizing seasonal-spatial crop production in Bangladesh
(Journal Article, 2021-07-01) Man Li; Guo, Zhe; Zhang, Wei
The intensification of crop production has been identified as one of the major drivers of environmental degradation. While significant advances could still be made with more widespread adoption of sustainable intensification technologies that address the agronomic efficiency of nitrogen fertilizers, the dynamic use of agricultural land across seasons and associated crop-specific responses to fertilizer applications have so far been largely overlooked. This paper explores the potential for improving the economic-environmental performance of crop production through spatially integrated modeling and optimization, as applied to Bangladesh. Results show that per-billion-Taka nitrogen loss from soil would decline by 83% from the baseline level through factoring in crop-specific, seasonal and spatial variations in crop nitrogen-use efficiency and nitrogen transport. The approach should complement other policy analysis and decision-support tools to assess alternative options for maximizing the positive outcomes of nitrogen fertilizers with regard to farm income and food security, while maintaining environmental sustainability.
Water security and groundwater
(Journal Article, 2021-07-01) Foster, S.; Villholth, Karen G.; Scanlon, B.; Xu, Y.
the concept of water security clarifies how water-resource scarcity impacts at varying geographic scales and on different socio-economic sectors, causing allocation conflicts and environmental risks • the large natural storage of most groundwater systems offers exceptional drought resilience and is well positioned to enhance water security for a wide range of water users • to perform this role sustainably groundwater systems require better data and analyses to inform water resource administration and effective pollution protection
Integration of hydrogeophysical and geological investigations in enhancing groundwater potential assessment in Houtriver gneiss crystalline basement formation of South Africa
(Journal Article, 2021-10) Muchingami, I.; Mkali, A.; Vinqi, L.; Pietersen, K.; Xu, Y.; Whitehead, R.; Karsten, J.; Villholth, Karen G.; Kanyerere, T.
Groundwater exploration in crystalline basement aquifers such as the Houtriver gneiss formation in the Limpopo province of South Africa is often described as complex. This is because groundwater availability in such aquifers is largely a consequence of the interaction of several processes related to recharge, underlying geological features and fracture connectivity of the aquifer rock matrix. In this study, an integration of geophysical and geological investigations is applied in inferring potential drill targets within the Houtriver gneiss crystalline basement aquifer system. Results from the magnetic and frequency domain electromagnetic surveys were combined with geological investigations to identify sites where vertical electrical resistivity sounding was applied to infer the thickness and layering of weathered and fractured zones, as well as to identify potential targets where test boreholes were drilled. Constructed geo-resistivity pseudo-sections suggested that groundwater occurrence within this formation is described by a heterogeneous multiple-layered and fractured aquifer system with the main groundwater bearing zones ranging from a depth of 30–72m in most cases. Ten potential drill sites were identified from which three test boreholes were drilled and used to validate the results through a lithostratigraphic conceptual model developed from the correlation of the geophysical results with drill logs. The integration of hydro-geophysical and geological methods thus provided a comprehensive approach for resource assessment in the Houtriver gneiss formation.
Background information and methodology to support estimation of sustainable groundwater abstraction using GEFIS
(Other, 2021-12-01) Sood, A.; Villholth, Karen G.
When assessing environmental flow requirements (EFR) of rivers, and adapting appropriate management strategies to comply with EFR, it is critical to understand the changes that may impact river flows. These could be river abstractions and discharges, land use changes, river diversion and impoundment, as well as groundwater abstraction in the catchment or river basin. The link between groundwater and surface water flow can be significant, implying that if groundwater is pumped near a river, it may significantly influence and reduce river flow (Barlow and Leake, 2012) (Figure A1). This is because in many, especially perennial rivers, groundwater provides part of the flow in the river, a flow component called base flow (BF) (Figure A1). By implication, management of rivers and EFR is closely linked to groundwater management, and to ensure sustainable outcomes, in most cases, management of both water resources are required. This is referred to as conjunctive water management (Barlow and Leake, 2012).
Establishing the foundation for the global observing system for marine life
(Journal Article, 2021-10-25) Satterthwaite, E. V.; Bax, N. J.; Miloslavich, P.; Ratnarajah, L.; Canonico, G.; Dunn, D.; Simmons, S. E.; Carini, R. J.; Evans, K.; Allain, V.; Appeltans, W.; Batten, S.; Benedetti-Cecchi, L.; Bernard, A. T. F.; Bristol, S.; Benson, A.; Buttigieg, Pier Luigi; Gerhardinger, L. C.; Chiba, S.; Davies, T. E.; Duffy, J. E.; Giron-Nava, A.; Hsu, A. J.; Kraberg, A. C.; Kudela, R. M.; Lear, D.; Montes, E.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; O’Brien, T. D.; Obura, D.; Provoost, P.; Pruckner, S.; Rebelo, Lisa-Maria; Selig, E. R.; Kjesbu, O. S.; Starger, C.; Stuart-Smith, R. D.; Vierros, M.; Waller, J.; Weatherdon, L. V.; Wellman, T. P.; Zivian, A.
Maintaining healthy, productive ecosystems in the face of pervasive and accelerating human impacts including climate change requires globally coordinated and sustained observations of marine biodiversity. Global coordination is predicated on an understanding of the scope and capacity of existing monitoring programs, and the extent to which they use standardized, interoperable practices for data management. Global coordination also requires identification of gaps in spatial and ecosystem coverage, and how these gaps correspond to management priorities and information needs. We undertook such an assessment by conducting an audit and gap analysis from global databases and structured surveys of experts. Of 371 survey respondents, 203 active, long-term (>5 years) observing programs systematically sampled marine life. These programs spanned about 7% of the ocean surface area, mostly concentrated in coastal regions of the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia. Seagrasses, mangroves, hard corals, and macroalgae were sampled in 6% of the entire global coastal zone. Two-thirds of all observing programs offered accessible data, but methods and conditions for access were highly variable. Our assessment indicates that the global observing system is largely uncoordinated which results in a failure to deliver critical information required for informed decision-making such as, status and trends, for the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems and provision of ecosystem services. Based on our study, we suggest four key steps that can increase the sustainability, connectivity and spatial coverage of biological Essential Ocean Variables in the global ocean: (1) sustaining existing observing programs and encouraging coordination among these; (2) continuing to strive for data strategies that follow FAIR principles (findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable); (3) utilizing existing ocean observing platforms and enhancing support to expand observing along coasts of developing countries, in deep ocean basins, and near the poles; and (4) targeting capacity building efforts. Following these suggestions could help create a coordinated marine biodiversity observing system enabling ecological forecasting and better planning for a sustainable use of ocean resources.
Economics of Index-based Flood Insurance (IBFI): scenario analysis and stakeholder perspectives from South Asia
(Working Paper, 2021-11-09) Malik, Ravinder Paul Singh; Amarnath, Giriraj
The International Water Management Institute (IWMI) has recently developed an innovative Index-based Flood Insurance (IBFI) product to facilitate the scaling of flood insurance particularly in vulnerable economies, to provide risk cover to poor farmers against crop losses that occur due to floods. While the product developed is technically very sound, the economics of such an intervention is important to ensure the large-scale acceptance and adoption of the product by different stakeholders and for its sustenance in the long term. This paper attempts at conducting an ex ante assessment of the economics of IBFI from the perspectives of the three main stakeholders: farmers, the insurance company and the government. The paper discusses the methodological challenges and data issues encountered in undertaking an economic analysis of such a product. The issues and processes involved have been empirically demonstrated using a theoretical case study based on a synthesis of information drawn from a host of sources and certain assumptions. Field-based data are now being collected and analyzed from the locations where IBFI has recently been piloted by IWMI. This will help in further refining the process of economic evaluation and identifying the experiences of different stakeholders.
Learning from research on water governance: Priorities for One CGIAR.
(Brief, 2021-11-01) CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems
Water is an essential resource for all life, but is extremely difficult to manage productively, sustainably and equitably. Good water governance has been a major theme of multiple international conferences for at least two decades (Woodhouse and Muller 2017). Without good governance, we cannot achieve poverty reduction, food security, environmental sustainability, equity and other global development goals or respond effectively to the ravages of climate change. Achieving many of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) depends on the availability of water to users. However, while there are some local success stories, progress on improving water management has been poor. By many measures, we are moving in the wrong direction: access to water, water scarcity, water pollution and food insecurity are getting worse in many parts of the world. Further, the rapid loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services threatens humanity’s future (Bradshaw et al. 2021). There is strong evidence and broad agreement that this is fundamentally a governance failure (e.g., Pahl-Wostl 2017). If we do not succeed in governing water more effectively, we cannot achieve the SDGs. Getting the governance of natural resources right is also a pre requisite for achieving CGIAR’s ambitious 2030 goals (CGIAR n.d.).
Geospatial assessment of flood-tolerant rice varieties to guide climate adaptation strategies in India
(Journal Article, 2021-10-13) Koppa, Nisha; Amarnath, Giriraj
Rice is the most important food crop. With the largest rain-fed lowland area in the world, flooding is considered as the most important abiotic stress to rice production in India. With climate change, it is expected that the frequency and severity of the floods will increase over the years. These changes will have a severe impact on the rain-fed agriculture production and livelihoods of millions of farmers in the flood affected region. There are numerous flood risk adaptation and mitigation options available for rain-fed agriculture in India. Procuring, maintaining and distributing the newly developed submergence-tolerant rice variety called Swarna-Sub1 could play an important role in minimizing the effect of flood on rice production. This paper assesses the quantity and cost of a flood-tolerant rice seed variety- Swarna-Sub1, that would be required during the main cropping season of rice i.e., kharif at a district level for 17 major Indian states. The need for SS1 seeds for rice production was assessed by developing a geospatial framework using remote sensing to map the suitability of SS1, to help stakeholders prepare better in managing the flood risks. Results indicate that districts of Bihar, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh will require the highest amount of SS1 seeds for flood adaptation strategies. The total estimated seed requirement for these 17 states would cost around 370 crores INR, less than 0.01 percent of Indian central government’s budget allocation for agriculture sector.

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