IFPRI Working Papers
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Item T20 Brasil: Communiqué and implementation roadmaps(Working Paper, 2024-11-07) CEBRI Rethink Tank; Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada; Fundacao Alexandre De GusmaoThe world is experiencing a polycrisis as it slowly and unevenly recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. This polycrisis is characterized by interconnected and cascading geopolitical, socioeconomic, and environmental risks and threats. The evermore tangible impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss are compounded by rising international and internal armed conflict, deepening economic inequalities and financial instability, with developing countries, particularly low-income ones, facing persistently high debt levels and shrinking fiscal space. The latter jeopardizes their capacity to increase investments that are necessary to catch up on lagging outcomes related to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)Item Household coping strategies and food security in the multi-shock environment of Mali(Working Paper, 2025-01-31) Ulimwengu, John M.This study investigates household coping strategies and food security outcomes within the context of multiple, overlapping shocks, including conflict, food price volatility, climate events, and economic instability. Utilizing a unique household dataset on Mali combined with probit models to account for the compounded effects of these systemic shocks, the analysis highlights significant elasticities between specific shocks and household responses. Key findings demonstrate that while preventive measures, such as income diversification, strengthen resilience, reactive strategies like selling productive assets or borrowing money or food provide only short-term relief but undermine long-term sustainability. The impact of coping strategies on food security measures, including the Food Consumption Score (FCS), Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), and Household Hunger Scale (HHS), reveals the trade-offs Malian households make between immediate needs and future stability. The study emphasizes the critical role of policy interventions in mitigating these vulnerabilities, including strengthening social safety nets, expanding access to financial services, and promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices. By integrating the analysis of multiple shocks, this research provides actionable insights for building household and community resilience in environments of compounded risk.Item Integrated agro-industrial parks in Ethiopia: Status, success and challenges with a focus on Yirgalem IAIP(Working Paper, 2025-01-31) Alemnew, Teklebirhan; Taffesse, Alemayehu SeyoumThis study aims to assess the current state, successes, and challenges of Integrated Agro-Industrial Parks (IAIPs) in Ethiopia, with a specific focus on the Yirgalem Integrated Agro-Industrial Park (YIAIP). The analysis is based on an extensive literature review and semi-structured interviews with key informants (KIIs). By examining the current state of Ethiopia's IAIPs, the research provides valuable insights into their successes and shortcomings, offering critical lessons to enhance the sustainability of IAIPs in Ethiopia and guide the development of similar initiatives in other Sub-Saharan African countries.Item Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Ethiopia(Working Paper, 2024-12-31) Alemnew, Teklebirhan; Taffesse, Alemayehu SeyoumIn both developing and developed economies, academic and policy discussions have consistently emphasized that achieving stable economic growth and maintaining internal and external balance require an exchange rate aligned with its long-term equilibrium value. This paper examines the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on Ethiopia's economic growth from 1980 to 2022. The study begins by estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach to calculate the misalignments. It then analyzes the effects of these misalignments on economic growth using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Hansen's (2000) threshold regression model. The VAR and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses reveal that real exchange rate misalignments have an immediate positive impact on economic growth, which diminishes between the eighth and sixteenth years and stabilizes as a permanent long-term effect. The threshold regression results indicate that undervaluation of the Ethiopian Birr enhances economic growth up to a 13.95% deviation from the equilibrium real exchange rate, while overvaluation supports growth up to a 7.15% threshold. Beyond these limits, misalignments hinder growth. The study underscores the importance of avoiding excessive deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate to sustain economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the need for consistent macroeconomic policies to minimize the gap between the actual and equilibrium real exchange rates. These findings emphasize the critical role of exchange rate policy in promoting sustainable economic development in Ethiopia.Item Feedback links between economy-wide and farm-level policies: application to irrigation water management in Morocco(Working Paper, 2005) Roe, Terry L.; Dinar, Ariel; Diao, Xinshen; Tsur, YacovItem What is the real impact of schooling on age of first union and age of first parenting?: new evidence from Guatemala(Working Paper, 2006) Behrman, Jere R.; Murphy, Alexis; Quisumbing, Agnes R.; Ramakrishnan, Usha; Yount, Katherine M.Item Motores de crecimiento rural sostenible y reducción de la pobreza en Centroamerica: estudio de caso de Honduras(Working Paper, 2006) Jansen, Hans G. P.Item Potential impact of iron biofortification in India(Working Paper, 2006) Stein, Alexander J.; Qaim, Matin; Meenakshi, J. V.; Nestel, Penelope; Sachdev, H. P. S.; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.Item What is the impact of social health protection on access to health care, health expenditure, and impoverishment?: a comparative analysis of three African countries(Working Paper, 2006) Scheil-Adlung, Xenia; Asfaw, Abay; Booyse, Frikkie; Lamiraud, Karine; Reynaud, Emmanuel; Jütting, Johannes; Xu, Ke; Carrin, Guy; Chatterji, Somnath; Evans, David; James, Chris; Muchiri, StephenRecently, there is an increasing focus on social health protection via health insurance as a potential promising way to better to deal with health risks in developing countries. However, the empirical basis for a profound analysis of the effects of health insurance is still very thin. Against this background the ILO, WHO, and the OECD Development Centre sponsored by GTZ have undertaken a collaborative research project in this field. This paper summarizes the results of three individual research projects (Asfaw, 2005; Lamiraud et al., 2005; Xu et al., 2005) measuring the impact of membership in a health insurance scheme in three African countries, namely Kenya, Senegal and South Africa. The structure of the paper is as follows. The first section of this paper is briefly outlining the health care systems in Kenya, Senegal and South Africa followed by a short description of the methodology and data used. The later sections focus on empirical results and policy implications.Item Investments, bequests, and public policy: Intergenerational transfers and the escape from poverty(Working Paper, 2007) Quisumbing, Agnes R.Item John Louis Dillon (1931-2001): Viewpoint(Working Paper, 2007) Anderson, Jock R.Item Food security: Vulnerability despite abundance(Working Paper, 2007) Cohen, Marc J.Item Estado de la biotecnología agropecuaria en Argentina(Working Paper, 2007) Trigo, Eduardo J.; Falck-Zepeda, José Benjamin; Falconi, César A.; Villarreal, FedericoItem Estado de la biotecnología agropecuaria en Uruguay(Working Paper, 2007) Trigo, Eduardo J.; Falck-Zepeda, José Benjamin; Falconi, César A.; Villarreal, FedericoItem Estado de la biotecnología agropecuaria en Chile(Working Paper, 2007) Trigo, Eduardo J.; Falck-Zepeda, José Benjamin; Falconi, César A.; Villarreal, FedericoItem Poverty transitions, shocks, and consumption in rural Bangladesh: Preliminary results from a longitudinal household survey(Working Paper, 2007) Quisumbing, Agnes R.Item Assessment of the adoption and impact of improved pigeonpea varieties in Tanzania(Working Paper, 2005) Shiferaw Bekele; Silim, Said; Muricho, Geoffrey; Audi, Patrick; Mligo, Joseph; Lyimo, Stephen; You, Liangzhi; Christiansen, Jørgen L.Item Food aid and dependency: Implications for emergency food security assessments(Working Paper, 2005) Lentz, Erin; Barrett, Christopher B.; Hoddinott, John F.Item How Fair is Workfare? Gender, Public Works, and Employment in Rural Ethiopia(Working Paper, 2005) Quisumbing, Agnes R.; Yohannes, YisehacThe authors use the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey to examine the gender dimensions of public works. They use three rounds of a panel conducted in 1994-95 to explore the determinants of participation in, days worked, wages, and earnings from wage labor, food-for-work (FFW), and self-employment. Then they analyze public works data collected in 1997, together with program data collected in 2003. FFW operates in a similar fashion with other labor markets in Ethiopia where female participation is low. Gender differences are important in the participation decision, but operate differently in different types of labor markets. Better-educated women are more likely to participate in the wage labor market, while higher livestock holdings diminish participation more for women. Females with more schooling are also more likely to participate in FFW. Men s and women s participation in FFW and self-employment responds differently to household and community shocks. After controlling for selection in which gender plays an important role, gender disadvantages in the wage labor market and FFW are insignificant. Returns to schooling and height are consistently positive in both wage labor and FFW, suggesting returns to human capital investment, even in the low-skill labor markets of rural Ethiopia. Program characteristics significantly affect participation, with differential effects on men and women. Participation, days worked, wages, and earnings vary according to the type of project. Relative to infrastructure projects, water, social services, and other projects decrease participation probabilities. Distance has a strong negative effect on women s participation relative to men s.Item The role of tropical forests in supporting biodiversity and hydrological integrity: a synoptic overview(Working Paper, 2005) Douglas, Ellen M.; Sebastian, Kate; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Wood, Stanley; Chomitz, Kenneth M.Conservation of high-biodiversity tropical forests is sometimes justified on the basis of assumed hydrological benefits – in particular, reduction of flooding hazards for downstream floodplain populations. However, the ‘far-field’ link between deforestation and distant flooding has been difficult to demonstrate empirically. This simulation study assesses the relationship between forest cover and hydrology for all river basins intersecting the world’s tropical forest biomes. The study develops a consistent set of pan-tropical land cover maps, gridded at one-halfdegree latitude and longitude. It integrates these data with existing global biogeophysical data. We apply the Water Balance Model – a coarse-scale process-based hydrological model -- to assess the impact of land cover changes on runoff. We quantified these impacts of forest conversion on biodiversity and hydrology for two scenarios: historical forest conversion and the potential future conversion of the most threatened remaining tropical forests. A worst-case scenario of complete conversion of the most threatened of the remaining forested areas would mean the loss of another 3 million km2 of tropical forests. Increased annual yield from the conversion of threatened tropical forests would be less than 5% of contemporary yield in aggregate. However, about 100 million people – 80 million of them in floodplains -- would experience increases of greater than 25% in annual water flows. This might be associated with commensurate increases in peak flows, though further analysis would be necessary to gauge the impact on flooding. We highlight basins in Southeast Asia, southern China, and Latin America that warrant further study.