Estimating the basic reproductive number (R0) for African swine fever virus (ASFV) transmission between pig herds in Uganda

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cg.contributor.affiliationMakerere Universityen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationNational Veterinary Institute, Swedenen
cg.contributor.affiliationMinistry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Ugandaen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Pretoriaen
cg.contributor.affiliationGulu Universityen
cg.contributor.crpAgriculture for Nutrition and Health
cg.contributor.crpLivestock and Fish
cg.contributor.donorAustralian Aiden
cg.contributor.donorWellcome Trusten
cg.coverage.countryUganda
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2UG
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africa
cg.creator.identifierRichard Bishop: 0000-0002-3720-9970en
cg.creator.identifierEric M. Fèvre: 0000-0001-8931-4986en
cg.creator.identifierBernard Bett: 0000-0001-9376-2941en
cg.creator.identifierAbworo: 0000-0003-0689-823Xen
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0125842en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1932-6203en
cg.issue5en
cg.journalPLOS ONEen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.ilriANIMAL DISEASESen
cg.subject.ilriASFen
cg.subject.ilriPIGSen
cg.volume10en
dc.contributor.authorBarongo, M.B.en
dc.contributor.authorStahl, K.en
dc.contributor.authorBett, Bernard K.en
dc.contributor.authorBishop, Richard P.en
dc.contributor.authorFèvre, Eric M.en
dc.contributor.authorAliro, T.en
dc.contributor.authorOkoth, Edward A.en
dc.contributor.authorMasembe, C.en
dc.contributor.authorKnobel, D.L.en
dc.contributor.authorSsematimba, A.en
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-11T10:19:48Zen
dc.date.available2015-05-11T10:19:48Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/65978
dc.titleEstimating the basic reproductive number (R0) for African swine fever virus (ASFV) transmission between pig herds in Ugandaen
dcterms.abstractAfrican swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs. Insights into the dynamics and scale of virus transmission can be obtained from estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0). We estimate R0 for ASF virus in small holder, free-range pig production system in Gulu, Uganda. The estimation was based on data collected from outbreaks that affected 43 villages (out of the 289 villages with an overall pig population of 26,570) between April 2010 and November 2011. A total of 211 outbreaks met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Three methods were used, specifically; (i) GIS- based identification of the nearest infectious neighbour based on the Euclidean distance between outbreaks, (ii) epidemic doubling time, and (iii) a compartmental susceptible-infectious (SI) model. For implementation of the SI model, three approaches were used namely; curve fitting (CF), a linear regression model (LRM) and the SI/N proportion. The R0 estimates from the nearest infectious neighbour and epidemic doubling time methods were 3.24 and 1.63 respectively. Estimates from the SI-based method were 1.58 for the CF approach, 1.90 for the LRM, and 1.77 for the SI/N proportion. Since all these values were above one, they predict the observed persistence of the virus in the population. We hypothesize that the observed variation in the estimates is a consequence of the data used. Higher resolution and temporally better defined data would likely reduce this variation. This is the first estimate of R0 for ASFV in a free range smallholder pig keeping system in sub-Saharan Africa and highlights the requirement for more efficient application of available disease control measures.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.available2015-05-04en
dcterms.bibliographicCitationBarongo, M.B., Stahl, K., Bett, B., Bishop, R.P., Fèvre, E.M., Aliro, T., Okoth, E., Masembe, C., Knobel, D. and Ssematimba, A. 2015. Estimating the basic reproductive number (R0) for African swine fever virus (ASFV) transmission between pig herds in Uganda. PLOS ONE 10(5): e0125842.en
dcterms.issued2015-05-04en
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen
dcterms.subjectanimal diseasesen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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