Environmental limits of Rift Valley fever revealed using ecoepidemiological mechanistic models

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Cambridgeen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationPublic Health Englanden_US
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Surreyen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationZoological Society of Londonen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity College Londonen_US
cg.contributor.crpAgriculture for Nutrition and Healthen_US
cg.contributor.donorDepartment for International Development, United Kingdomen_US
cg.contributor.donorEconomic and Social Research Council, United Kingdomen_US
cg.contributor.donorNatural Environment Research Council, United Kingdomen_US
cg.contributor.donorPublic Health Englanden_US
cg.contributor.donorEuropean Unionen_US
cg.contributor.donorAlborada Trusten_US
cg.contributor.donorMedical Research Council, United Kingdomen_US
cg.coverage.countryKenyaen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2KEen_US
cg.coverage.regionAfricaen_US
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africaen_US
cg.creator.identifierBernard Bett: 0000-0001-9376-2941en_US
cg.creator.identifierDelia Grace: 0000-0002-0195-9489en_US
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden_US
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1803264115en_US
cg.isijournalISI Journalen_US
cg.issn0027-8424en_US
cg.issue31en_US
cg.journalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americaen_US
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen_US
cg.subject.ilriANIMAL DISEASESen_US
cg.subject.ilriENVIRONMENTen_US
cg.subject.ilriEPIDEMIOLOGYen_US
cg.subject.ilriRESEARCHen_US
cg.subject.ilriRVFen_US
cg.subject.ilriZOONOTIC DISEASESen_US
cg.volume115en_US
dc.contributor.authorLo Iacono, G.en_US
dc.contributor.authorCunningham, A.A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBett, Bernard K.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGrace, Deliaen_US
dc.contributor.authorRedding, D.W.en_US
dc.contributor.authorWood, J.L.N.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2018-07-20T08:47:10Zen_US
dc.date.available2018-07-20T08:47:10Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/96206en_US
dc.titleEnvironmental limits of Rift Valley fever revealed using ecoepidemiological mechanistic modelsen_US
dcterms.abstractVector-borne diseases (VBDs) of humans and domestic animals are a significant component of the global burden of disease and a key driver of poverty. The transmission cycles of VBDs are often strongly mediated by the ecological requirements of the vectors, resulting in complex transmission dynamics, including intermittent epidemics and an unclear link between environmental conditions and disease persistence. An important broader concern is the extent to which theoretical models are reliable at forecasting VBDs; infection dynamics can be complex, and the resulting systems are highly unstable. Here, we examine these problems in detail using a case study of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a high-burden disease endemic to Africa. We develop an ecoepidemiological, compartmental, mathematical model coupled to the dynamics of ambient temperature and water availability and apply it to a realistic setting using empirical environmental data from Kenya. Importantly, we identify the range of seasonally varying ambient temperatures and water-body availability that leads to either the extinction of mosquito populations and/or RVF (nonpersistent regimens) or the establishment of long-term mosquito populations and consequently, the endemicity of the RVF infection (persistent regimens). Instabilities arise when the range of the environmental variables overlaps with the threshold of persistence. The model captures the intermittent nature of RVF occurrence, which is explained as low-level circulation under the threshold of detection, with intermittent emergence sometimes after long periods. Using the approach developed here opens up the ability to improve predictions of the emergence and behaviors of epidemics of many other important VBDs.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_US
dcterms.audienceScientistsen_US
dcterms.available2018-07-18en_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationLo Iacono, G., Cunningham, A.A., Bett, B., Grace, D., Redding, D.W. and Wood, J.L.N. 2018. Environmental limits of Rift Valley fever revealed using ecoepidemiological mechanistic models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115(31): E7448–E7456.en_US
dcterms.issued2018-07-31en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserveden_US
dcterms.publisherNational Academy of Sciencesen_US
dcterms.subjectenvironmenten_US
dcterms.subjectresearchen_US
dcterms.subjectrift valley fever virusen_US
dcterms.subjectzoonosesen_US
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen_US

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