Environmental limits of Rift Valley fever revealed using ecoepidemiological mechanistic models

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Cambridgeen
cg.contributor.affiliationPublic Health Englanden
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Surreyen
cg.contributor.affiliationZoological Society of Londonen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity College Londonen
cg.contributor.crpAgriculture for Nutrition and Health
cg.contributor.donorDepartment for International Development, United Kingdomen
cg.contributor.donorEconomic and Social Research Council, United Kingdomen
cg.contributor.donorNatural Environment Research Council, United Kingdomen
cg.contributor.donorPublic Health Englanden
cg.contributor.donorEuropean Unionen
cg.contributor.donorAlborada Trusten
cg.contributor.donorMedical Research Council, United Kingdomen
cg.coverage.countryKenya
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2KE
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africa
cg.creator.identifierBernard Bett: 0000-0001-9376-2941en
cg.creator.identifierDelia Grace: 0000-0002-0195-9489en
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1803264115en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn0027-8424en
cg.issue31en
cg.journalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americaen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.ilriANIMAL DISEASESen
cg.subject.ilriENVIRONMENTen
cg.subject.ilriEPIDEMIOLOGYen
cg.subject.ilriRESEARCHen
cg.subject.ilriRVFen
cg.subject.ilriZOONOTIC DISEASESen
cg.volume115en
dc.contributor.authorLo Iacono, G.en
dc.contributor.authorCunningham, A.A.en
dc.contributor.authorBett, Bernard K.en
dc.contributor.authorGrace, Deliaen
dc.contributor.authorRedding, D.W.en
dc.contributor.authorWood, J.L.N.en
dc.date.accessioned2018-07-20T08:47:10Zen
dc.date.available2018-07-20T08:47:10Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/96206
dc.titleEnvironmental limits of Rift Valley fever revealed using ecoepidemiological mechanistic modelsen
dcterms.abstractVector-borne diseases (VBDs) of humans and domestic animals are a significant component of the global burden of disease and a key driver of poverty. The transmission cycles of VBDs are often strongly mediated by the ecological requirements of the vectors, resulting in complex transmission dynamics, including intermittent epidemics and an unclear link between environmental conditions and disease persistence. An important broader concern is the extent to which theoretical models are reliable at forecasting VBDs; infection dynamics can be complex, and the resulting systems are highly unstable. Here, we examine these problems in detail using a case study of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a high-burden disease endemic to Africa. We develop an ecoepidemiological, compartmental, mathematical model coupled to the dynamics of ambient temperature and water availability and apply it to a realistic setting using empirical environmental data from Kenya. Importantly, we identify the range of seasonally varying ambient temperatures and water-body availability that leads to either the extinction of mosquito populations and/or RVF (nonpersistent regimens) or the establishment of long-term mosquito populations and consequently, the endemicity of the RVF infection (persistent regimens). Instabilities arise when the range of the environmental variables overlaps with the threshold of persistence. The model captures the intermittent nature of RVF occurrence, which is explained as low-level circulation under the threshold of detection, with intermittent emergence sometimes after long periods. Using the approach developed here opens up the ability to improve predictions of the emergence and behaviors of epidemics of many other important VBDs.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.available2018-07-18en
dcterms.bibliographicCitationLo Iacono, G., Cunningham, A.A., Bett, B., Grace, D., Redding, D.W. and Wood, J.L.N. 2018. Environmental limits of Rift Valley fever revealed using ecoepidemiological mechanistic models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115(31): E7448–E7456.en
dcterms.issued2018-07-31en
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserved
dcterms.publisherNational Academy of Sciencesen
dcterms.subjectenvironmenten
dcterms.subjectresearchen
dcterms.subjectrift valley fever virusen
dcterms.subjectzoonosesen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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