Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa

Simple item page
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationWageningen University & Researchen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Ghanaen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agricultureen
cg.contributor.affiliationFederal University of Technology, Minnaen
cg.contributor.affiliationInstitut National de la Recherche Agronomique du Nigeren
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Nebraska–Lincolnen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Centeren
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden
cg.contributor.initiativeExcellence in Agronomy
cg.contributor.initiativeClimate Resilience
cg.coverage.countryBurkina Faso
cg.coverage.countryEthiopia
cg.coverage.countryGhana
cg.coverage.countryKenya
cg.coverage.countryMali
cg.coverage.countryNiger
cg.coverage.countryNigeria
cg.coverage.countryTanzania
cg.coverage.countryUganda
cg.coverage.countryZambia
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2BF
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ET
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2GH
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2KE
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ML
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2NE
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2NG
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2TZ
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2UG
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ZM
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionSub-Saharan Africa
cg.coverage.regionWestern Africa
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africa
cg.creator.identifierJulian Ramirez-Villegas: 0000-0002-8044-583X
cg.creator.identifierSamuel Adjei-Nsiah: 0000-0002-7394-4913
cg.creator.identifierFrederick Baijukya: 0000-0003-2586-2013
cg.creator.identifierAbdullahi Bala: 0000-0003-1361-1786
cg.creator.identifierRegis Chikowo: 0000-0003-3047-359X
cg.creator.identifierJoão Vasco Silva: 0000-0002-3019-5895
cg.creator.identifierGodfrey Taulya: 0000-0002-5690-0492
cg.creator.identifierKindie Tesfaye: 0000-0002-7201-8053
cg.creator.identifierMartin van Ittersum: 0000-0001-8611-6781
cg.creator.identifierMarloes van Loon: 0000-0001-8665-0810
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2024.127137en
cg.identifier.iitathemeNATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1161-0301en
cg.issue127137en
cg.journalEuropean Journal of Agronomyen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.actionAreaSystems Transformation
cg.subject.iitaCLIMATE CHANGEen
cg.subject.iitaFOOD SECURITYen
cg.subject.iitaCROP SYSTEMSen
cg.subject.impactAreaNutrition, health and food security
cg.subject.impactPlatformNutrition, Health and Food Security
cg.subject.sdgSDG 2 - Zero hungeren
cg.volume155en
dc.contributor.authorAlimagham, S.en
dc.contributor.authorvan Loon, M.P.en
dc.contributor.authorRamírez Villegas, Julián Armandoen
dc.contributor.authorAdjei- Nsiah, S.en
dc.contributor.authorBaijukya, F.en
dc.contributor.authorBala, A.en
dc.contributor.authorChikowo, R.en
dc.contributor.authorSilva, J.V.en
dc.contributor.authorSoule, A.M.en
dc.contributor.authorTaulya, G.en
dc.contributor.authorTenorio, F.A.en
dc.contributor.authorTesfaye, F.A.en
dc.contributor.authorvan Ittersum, M.en
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-01T09:38:18Zen
dc.date.available2024-03-01T09:38:18Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/139777
dc.titleClimate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africaen
dcterms.abstractSub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) demand for cereals is projected to more than double by 2050. Climate change is generally assumed to add to the future challenges of the needed productivity increase. This study aimed to assess (i) the potential climate change impact on four key rainfed cereals (maize, millet, sorghum and wheat) in ten SSA countries namely Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia using local data and national expertise, and (ii) the potential of cultivar adaptation to climate change for the four crops. We assessed effects on rainfed potential cereal yields per crop and aggregated these to regional level in West (WA), East and Southern Africa (ESA). We made use of a rigorous agronomic dataset for 120 locations in the ten countries and performed simulations of rainfed potential yield (Yw) using bias-corrected climate data from five GCMs, three time periods (1995–2014 as baseline, 2040–2059, and 2080–2099) and two scenarios (SSP3–7.0 as business as usual and SSP5–8.5 as pessimistic). We tested whether better adapted cultivars (taken from the pool of cultivars currently employed in the ten countries) could compensate for climate change. Results showed that climate change decreased aggregated Yw of cereals by around 6% in ESA by 2050, whereas projected impacts in WA were not significant. In 2090, however, the projected impact of climate change in both WA (24%) and ESA ( 9%). was significant. Cultivar adaptation partially compensated the negative impact of climate change. With the adaptation approach, 87% and 82% of potential production in ESA was estimated to occur with higher average Yw and lower variability in, respectively, 2050 and 2090, compared to the baseline period. In WA 67% and 43% of the potential production was estimated to experience such positive effects in 2050 and 2090, respectively. These results highlight remaining adaptation challenges for 13% (2050) and 18% (2090) in ESA and 33% (2050) and 57% (2090) in WA for potential production. In the context of the large yield gaps in SSA, this is likely to further increase challenges to meet cereal self-sufficiency for SSA, especially in WA.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.available2024-02-27
dcterms.bibliographicCitationAlimagham, S., van Loon, M. P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Adjei-Nsiah, S., Baijukya, F., Bala, A., Chikowo, R., Silva, J. V., Soulé, A. M., Taulya, G., Tenorio, F. A., Tesfaye, K., & van Ittersum, M. K. (2024). Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa. European Journal of Agronomy, 155, 127137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2024.127137en
dcterms.descriptionOpen Access Articleen
dcterms.extentpp. 1-13en
dcterms.issued2024-04
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherElsevieren
dcterms.replaceshttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/141470en
dcterms.subjectcultivarsen
dcterms.subjectcrop modellingen
dcterms.subjectmaturityen
dcterms.subjectyieldsen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectfood securityen
dcterms.subjectsub-saharan africaen
dcterms.subjectvarietiesen
dcterms.subjectcereal cropsen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

Files

Original bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Climate change.pdf
Size:
672.69 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download

License bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.75 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

IITA Journal Articles
Alliance Bioversity CIAT Journal Articles
Alliance Research Lever 3: Climate Action
CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience
CGIAR Initiative on Excellence in Agronomy