Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River Basin

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cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Water Management Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Lausanneen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversité Paris-Saclayen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Birminghamen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Oxforden
cg.contributor.affiliationUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrologyen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Bernen
cg.contributor.donorSwiss Government Excellence Scholarshipen
cg.contributor.donorSwiss National Science Foundationen
cg.contributor.donorHydro-JULES Visiting Scientist Fellowshipen
cg.contributor.donorSivapalan Young Scientists Travel Awarden
cg.contributor.donorFrench National Program LEFEen
cg.coverage.regionWestern Africa
cg.coverage.subregionVolta River Basin
cg.creator.identifierMoctar Dembélé: 0000-0002-0689-2033
cg.creator.identifierSander J. Zwart: 0000-0002-5091-1801
cg.identifier.dataurlhttps://esgf-data.dkrz.deen
cg.identifier.dataurlhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3531873en
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-121-2024en
cg.identifier.iwmilibraryH052707
cg.identifier.urlhttps://piahs.copernicus.org/articles/385/121/2024/piahs-385-121-2024.pdfen
cg.issn2199-899Xen
cg.journalProceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciencesen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.river.basinVOLTAen
cg.volume385en
dc.contributor.authorDembélé, Moctaren
dc.contributor.authorVrac, M.en
dc.contributor.authorCeperley, N.en
dc.contributor.authorZwart, Sander J.en
dc.contributor.authorLarsen, J.en
dc.contributor.authorDadson, S. J.en
dc.contributor.authorMariéthoz, G.en
dc.contributor.authorSchaefli, B.en
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-30T23:47:24Zen
dc.date.available2024-04-30T23:47:24Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/141693
dc.titleFuture shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River Basinen
dcterms.abstractGlobal warming is projected to result in changes in streamflow in West Africa with implications for frequent droughts and floods. This study investigates projected shifting in the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta River basin (VRB) under climate change, using the method of circular statistics. River flow is simulated with the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM), forced with bias-corrected climate projection datasets consisting of 43 regional and global climate model combinations under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Projected changes indicate that AMF increases between +1 % and +80 % across sub-basins, particularly in the near future (2021–2050), whereas MAM decreases between −19 % and −7 %, mainly from the late century (2071–2100), depending on RCPs. The date of occurrence of AMF is projected to change between −4 and +3 d, while MAM could shift between −4 and +14 d depending on scenarios over the 21st century. Annual high flows denote a strong seasonality with negligible future changes, whereas the seasonality of low flows has a higher variation, with a slight drop in the future.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2024-04-18
dcterms.bibliographicCitationDembele, Moctar; Vrac, M.; Ceperley, N.; Zwart, Sander J.; Larsen, J.; Dadson, S. J.; Mariéthoz, G.; Schaefli, B. 2024. Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River Basin. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (PIAHS), 385:121-127. (Special issue: IAHS2022 - Hydrological Sciences in the Anthropocene: Variability and Change Across Space, Time, Extremes, and Interfaces) [doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-121-2024]en
dcterms.extent385:121–127.en
dcterms.issued2024-04-18
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherCopernicus Publicationsen
dcterms.subjectextreme weather eventsen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectriver basinsen
dcterms.subjectmodellingen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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