Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR single centreen
cg.contributor.crpPolicies, Institutions, and Markets
cg.contributor.donorUnited States Agency for International Developmenten
cg.contributor.donorUniversity of Floridaen
cg.coverage.countryEthiopia
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ET
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africa
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionSub-Saharan Africa
cg.creator.identifierTimothy Thomas: 0000-0002-7951-8157
cg.creator.identifierPaul Dorosh: 0000-0001-6049-6018
cg.creator.identifierRichard Robertson: 0000-0001-5741-3867
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133104en
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Development Strategy and Governance Division
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Ethiopia Strategy Support Program
cg.identifier.publicationRankNot ranked
cg.number130en
cg.placeWashington, DCen
cg.placeAddis Ababa, Ethiopiaen
cg.reviewStatusInternal Reviewen
dc.contributor.authorThomas, Timothy S.en
dc.contributor.authorDorosh, Paul A.en
dc.contributor.authorRobertson, Richard D.en
dc.date.accessioned2024-06-21T09:07:39Zen
dc.date.available2024-06-21T09:07:39Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/146588
dc.titleClimate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopiaen
dcterms.abstractWe present results of model simulations of maize, wheat, and sorghum yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects on the yields of these cereals of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, there is growing evidence that weather outcomes are likely to become more variable in the future, implying that severe droughts and floods may very well have a greater impact on cereal production in the future than in the past.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.bibliographicCitationThomas, Timothy S.; Dorosh, Paul A.; and Robertson, Richard D. 2019. Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia. ESSP Working Paper 130. Washington, DC and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146588en
dcterms.extent16 pagesen
dcterms.isPartOfESSP Working Paperen
dcterms.issued2019-02-15
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Instituteen
dcterms.publisherEthiopian Development Research Instituteen
dcterms.replaceshttps://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll2/id/133104en
dcterms.subjectsorghumen
dcterms.subjectmathematical modelsen
dcterms.subjectmaizeen
dcterms.subjectyieldsen
dcterms.subjectwheaten
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.typeWorking Paper

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