El Niño’s effects on southern African agriculture in 2023/24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in Zimbabwe

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cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of KwaZulu-Natalen
cg.contributor.affiliationMinistry Lands, Agriculture, Water, Fisheries and Rural Development, Zimbabween
cg.contributor.affiliationFamine Early Warning Systems Network, Botswanaen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Californiaen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Centeren
cg.contributor.affiliationMeteorological Services Department, Zimbabween
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Water Management Instituteen
cg.contributor.donorWater Research Commission of South Africaen
cg.contributor.donorAdaptation Funden
cg.contributor.donorWellcome Trusten
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden
cg.contributor.initiativeDiversification in East and Southern Africa
cg.contributor.initiativeExcellence in Agronomy
cg.coverage.countryZimbabwe
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ZW
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Africa
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africa
cg.creator.identifierDennis Junior Choruma: 0000-0002-0727-8473en
cg.creator.identifierVimbayi Grace Petrova Chimonyo: 0000-0001-9912-9848en
cg.creator.identifierMabhaudhi T: 0000-0002-9323-8127en
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111692en
cg.identifier.iwmilibraryH052405en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn2073-4433en
cg.issue11en
cg.journalAtmosphereen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.volume14en
dc.contributor.authorMugiyo, H.en
dc.contributor.authorMagadzire, T.en
dc.contributor.authorChoruma, Dennis Junioren
dc.contributor.authorChimonyo, Vimbayi Grace Petrovaen
dc.contributor.authorManzou, R.en
dc.contributor.authorJiri, O.en
dc.contributor.authorMabhaudhi, Tafadzwanasheen
dc.date.accessioned2023-11-30T22:30:51Zen
dc.date.available2023-11-30T22:30:51Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/134897
dc.titleEl Niño’s effects on southern African agriculture in 2023/24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in Zimbabween
dcterms.abstractThe frequency of El Niño occurrences in southern Africa surpasses the norm, resulting in erratic weather patterns that significantly impact food security, particularly in Zimbabwe. The effects of these weather patterns posit that El Niño occurrences have contributed to the diminished maize yields. The objective is to give guidelines to policymakers, researchers, and agricultural stakeholders for taking proactive actions to address the immediate and lasting impacts of El Niño and enhance the resilience of the agricultural industry. This brief paper provides prospective strategies for farmers to anticipate and counteract the El Niño-influenced dry season projected for 2023/24 and beyond. The coefficient of determination R2 between yield and ENSO was low; 11 of the 13 El Niño seasons had a negative detrended yield anomaly, indicating the strong association between El Nino’s effects and the reduced maize yields in Zimbabwe. The R2 between the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) and rainfall (43%) and between rainfall and yield (39%) indirectly affects the association between ONI and yield. To safeguard farmers’ livelihoods and improve their preparedness for droughts in future agricultural seasons, this paper proposes a set of strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making guidelines that the agriculture industry should follow. The importance of equipping farmers with weather and climate information and guidance on drought and heat stress was underscored, encompassing strategies such as planting resilient crop varieties, choosing resilient livestock, and implementing adequate fire safety measures.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2023-11-16en
dcterms.bibliographicCitationMugiyo, H.; Magadzire, T.; Choruma, D. J.; Chimonyo, V. G. P.; Manzou, R.; Jiri, O.; Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe. 2023. El Niño’s effects on southern African agriculture in 2023/24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in Zimbabwe. Atmosphere, 14(11):1692. (Special issue: Joint Disasters of High Temperature and Drought) [doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111692]en
dcterms.extent14(11):1692. (Special issue: Joint Disasters of High Temperature and Drought)en
dcterms.issued2023-11-16en
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherMDPIen
dcterms.subjectel ninoen
dcterms.subjectearly warning systemsen
dcterms.subjectstrategiesen
dcterms.subjectdisaster risk reductionen
dcterms.subjectclimate servicesen
dcterms.subjectweatheren
dcterms.subjectrainfallen
dcterms.subjectdroughten
dcterms.subjectheat stressen
dcterms.subjectmitigationen
dcterms.subjectcrop productionen
dcterms.subjectcrop yielden
dcterms.subjectagricultural sectoren
dcterms.subjectfarmersen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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