Demand and supply of cereals in India: 2010-2025
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Ganesh-Kumar, Anand; Mehta, Rajesh; Pullabhotla, Hemant; Prasad, Sanjay K.; Ganguly, Kavery; Gulati, Ashok. 2012. Demand and supply of cereals in India: 2010-2025. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1158. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153823
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This paper attempts to project the future supply and demand up to the year 2025 for rice and wheat, the two main cereals cultivated and consumed in India. A review of studies that forecast the supply and demand of Indian agriculture commodities revealed three important limitations of such studies: (a) The forecasts are generally overestimated (in the ex post situation); (b) the methodology is not clearly outlined; (c) ex-ante validation of the forecast have not been carried out. This study presents forecasts based on models that are validated so that forecast performances can be assessed.