Next-generation drought intensity–duration–frequency curves for early warning systems in Ethiopia’s pastoral region

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country institute
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Center for Tropical Agricultureen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationEthiopian Institute of Agricultural Researchen_US
cg.contributor.donorBill & Melinda Gates Foundationen_US
cg.contributor.initiativeLivestock and Climateen_US
cg.contributor.initiativeDiversification in East and Southern Africaen_US
cg.coverage.countryEthiopiaen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ETen_US
cg.coverage.regionAfricaen_US
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africaen_US
cg.coverage.regionSub-Saharan Africaen_US
cg.creator.identifierTegegne, Getachew: 0000-0002-7557-5699en_US
cg.creator.identifierSintayehu Dejene: 0000-0002-5677-7324en_US
cg.creator.identifierTerefe, Tadesse: 0000-0001-5189-8189en_US
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020031en_US
cg.isijournalISI Journalen_US
cg.issn2225-1154en_US
cg.issue2en_US
cg.journalClimateen_US
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen_US
cg.subject.actionAreaResilient Agrifood Systemsen_US
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatCLIMATE CHANGEen_US
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONen_US
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatWATERen_US
cg.subject.impactAreaClimate adaptation and mitigationen_US
cg.subject.sdgSDG 13 - Climate actionen_US
cg.volume13en_US
dc.contributor.authorTegegne, Getachewen_US
dc.contributor.authorAlemayehu, Sintayehuen_US
dc.contributor.authorDejene, Sintayehu Workenehen_US
dc.contributor.authorGebre, Liyunehen_US
dc.contributor.authorZeleke, Tadesse Terefeen_US
dc.contributor.authorTesfaye, Lidyaen_US
dc.contributor.authorAbdulhamid, Numeryen_US
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-11T11:11:28Z
dc.date.available2025-02-11T11:11:28Z
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/172943
dc.titleNext-generation drought intensity–duration–frequency curves for early warning systems in Ethiopia’s pastoral regionen_US
dcterms.abstractThe pastoral areas of Ethiopia are facing a recurrent drought crisis that significantly affects the availability of water resources for communities dependent on livestock. Despite the urgent need for effective drought early warning systems, Ethiopia’s pastoral areas have limited capacities to monitor variations in the intensity–duration–frequency of droughts. This study intends to drive drought intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves that account for climate-model uncertainty and spatial variability, with the goal of enhancing water resources management in Borana, Ethiopia. To achieve this, the study employed quantile delta mapping to bias-correct outputs from five climate models. A novel multi-model ensemble approach, known as spatiotemporal reliability ensemble averaging, was utilized to combine climate-model outputs, exploiting the strengths of each model while discounting their weaknesses. The Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) was used to quantify meteorological (3-month SPEI), agricultural (6-month SPEI), and hydrological (12-month SPEI) droughts. Overall, the analysis of historical (1990–2014) and projected (2025–2049, 2050–2074, and 2075–2099) periods revealed that climate change significantly exacerbates drought conditions across all three systems, with changes in drought being more pronounced than changes in mean precipitation. A prevailing rise in droughts’ IDF features is linked to an anticipated decline in precipitation and an increase in temperature. From the derived drought IDF curves, projections for 2025–2049 and 2050–2074 indicate a significant rise in hydrological drought occurrences, while the historical and 2075–2099 periods demonstrate greater vulnerability in meteorological and agricultural systems. While the frequency of hydrological droughts is projected to decrease between 2075 and 2099 as their duration increases, the periods from 2025 to 2049 and from 2050 to 2074 are expected to experience more intense hydrological droughts. Generally, the findings underscore the critical need for timely interventions to mitigate the vulnerabilities associated with drought, particularly in areas like Borana that depend heavily on water resources availability.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationTegegne, G.; Alemayehu, S.; Dejene, S.W.; Gebre, L.; Zeleke, T.T.; Tesfaye, L.; Abdulhamid, N. (2025) Next-generation drought intensity–duration–frequency curves for early warning systems in Ethiopia’s pastoral region. Climate 13(2): 31. ISSN: 2225-1154en_US
dcterms.extent31en_US
dcterms.issued2025-02-02en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0en_US
dcterms.publisherMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Instituteen_US
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen_US
dcterms.subjectwater managementen_US
dcterms.subjectearly warning systemsen_US
dcterms.subjectdroughten_US
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen_US

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