Climate change and ecological intensification of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa – A systems approach to predict maize yield under push-pull technology

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Center for Tropical Agricultureen
cg.contributor.affiliationSwedish University of Agricultural Sciencesen
cg.contributor.affiliationCornell Universityen
cg.contributor.affiliationStockholm Universityen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of KwaZulu-Natalen
cg.contributor.affiliationAddis Ababa Universityen
cg.contributor.affiliationLund Universityen
cg.contributor.affiliationNorth-West Universityen
cg.contributor.affiliationPoverty and Health Integrated Solutions (PHIS)en
cg.contributor.initiativeExcellence in Agronomyen
cg.coverage.countrySouth Africaen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ZAen
cg.coverage.regionAfricaen
cg.creator.identifierAlexandridis, Nikolaos: 0000-0001-6031-1175en
cg.creator.identifierFeit, Benjamin: 0000-0002-1579-7695en
cg.creator.identifierLuttermoser, Tim: 0000-0002-8785-7183en
cg.creator.identifierMay, Wilhelm: 0000-0002-4933-3565en
cg.creator.identifierMidega, Charles: 0000-0002-5448-7358en
cg.creator.identifierIngrid Oborn: 0000-0003-3847-6082en
cg.creator.identifierPoveda, Katja: 0000-0002-5222-6947en
cg.creator.identifierSileshi Weldesemayat: 0000-0001-7828-6238en
cg.creator.identifierZewdie, Beyene: 0000-0002-6020-916Xen
cg.creator.identifierClough, Yann: 0000-0002-2901-7602en
cg.creator.identifierJonsson, Mattias: 0000-0002-8489-6099en
cg.creator.identifierJob Kihara: 0000-0002-4394-9553en
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2023.108511en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn0167-8809en
cg.journalAgriculture Ecosystems & Environmenten
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatSOIL HEALTHen
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatSOIL LANDSCAPESen
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatWATERen
cg.subject.sdgSDG 13 - Climate actionen
cg.volume352en
dc.contributor.authorAlexandridis, Nikolaosen
dc.contributor.authorFeit, Benjaminen
dc.contributor.authorKihara, Joben
dc.contributor.authorLuttermoser, Timen
dc.contributor.authorMay, Wilhelmen
dc.contributor.authorMidega, Charlesen
dc.contributor.authorÖborn, Ingriden
dc.contributor.authorPoveda, Katjaen
dc.contributor.authorSileshi, Gudeta W.en
dc.contributor.authorZewdie, Beyeneen
dc.contributor.authorClough, Yannen
dc.contributor.authorJonsson, Mattiasen
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-20T11:41:15Zen
dc.date.available2025-02-20T11:41:15Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/173262
dc.titleClimate change and ecological intensification of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa – A systems approach to predict maize yield under push-pull technologyen
dcterms.abstractAssessing effects of climate change on agricultural systems and the potential for ecological intensification to increase food security in developing countries is essential to guide management, policy-making and future research. 'Push-pull' technology (PPT) is a poly-cropping design developed in eastern Africa that utilizes plant chemicals to mediate plant-insect interactions.PPT application yields significant increases in crop productivity, by reducing pest load and damage caused by arthropods and parasitic weeds, while also bolstering soil fertility. As climate change effects may be species-and/or context-specific, there is need to elucidate how, in interaction with biotic factors, projected climate conditions are likely to influence future functioning of PPT. Here, we first reviewed how changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 concentration can influence PPT components (i.e., land use, soils, crops, weeds, diseases, pests and their natural enemies) across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).We then imposed these anticipated responses on a landscape-scale qualitative mathematical model of maize production under PPT in eastern Africa, to predict cumulative, structure-mediated impacts of climate change on maize yield. Our review suggests variable impacts of climate change on PPT components in SSA by the end of the 21st century, including reduced soil fertility, increased weed and arthropod pest pressure and increased prevalence of crop diseases, but also increased biological control by pests' natural enemies. Extrapolating empirical evidence of climate effects to predict responses to projected climate conditions is mainly limited by a lack of mechanistic understanding regarding single and interactive effects of climate variables on PPT components. Model predictions of maize yield responses to anticipated impacts of climate change in eastern Africa suggest predominantly negative future trends. Nevertheless, maize yields can be sustained or increased by favourable changes in system components with less certain future behaviour, including higher PPT adoption, preservation of field edge density and agricultural diversification beyond cereal crops.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen
dcterms.available2023-04-05en
dcterms.bibliographicCitationAlexandridis, N.; Feit, B.; Kihara, J.; Luttermoser, T.; May, W.; Midega, C.; Öborn, I.; Poveda, K.; Sileshi, G.W.; Zewdie, B.; Clough, Y.; Jonsson, M. (2023) Climate change and ecological intensification of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa – A systems approach to predict maize yield under push-pull technology. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment 352: 108511. ISSN: 0167-8809en
dcterms.extent108511en
dcterms.issued2023-04-05en
dcterms.languageenen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0en
dcterms.publisherElsevier BVen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectagricultureen
dcterms.subjectpest controlen
dcterms.subjectmethodsen
dcterms.subjectfood securityen
dcterms.subjectcrop yielden
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen

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