The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

cg.authorship.typesCGIAR single centreen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Food Policy Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.crpPolicies, Institutions, and Markets
cg.contributor.crpWater, Land and Ecosystems
cg.contributor.donorMassachusetts Institute of Technologyen
cg.contributor.donorUnited States Department of Energyen
cg.contributor.donorUnited States Environmental Protection Agencyen
cg.contributor.donorElectric Power Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.donorNational Treasury of the Republic of South Africaen
cg.coverage.countrySouth Africa
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ZA
cg.coverage.regionSub-Saharan Africa
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Africa
cg.creator.identifierTimothy Thomas: 0000-0002-7951-8157
cg.creator.identifierChanning Arndt: 0000-0003-2472-6300
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03235-5en
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Environment and Production Technology Division
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Southern Africa - Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED)
cg.identifier.publicationRankA
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn0165-0009en
cg.issue168en
cg.journalClimatic Changeen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.volume168en
dc.contributor.authorSchlosser, Adamen
dc.contributor.authorSokolov, Andreien
dc.contributor.authorStrzepek, Kenneth M.en
dc.contributor.authorThomas, Timothy S.en
dc.contributor.authorGao, Xiangen
dc.contributor.authorArndt, Channingen
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-22T12:10:27Zen
dc.date.available2024-05-22T12:10:27Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/142412
dc.titleThe changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africaen
dcterms.abstractWe present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2021-10-27
dcterms.bibliographicCitationSchlosser, Adam; Sokolov, Andrei; Strzepek Ken; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gao, Xiang; and Arndt, Channing. 2021. The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa. Climatic Change 168: 28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03235-5en
dcterms.issued2021-10-27
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherSpringeren
dcterms.relationhttps://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/17483en
dcterms.relationhttps://sa-tied.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/images/SA-TIED_WP101.pdfen
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03235-5en
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.787582en
dcterms.replaceshttps://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll5/id/7997en
dcterms.subjecthydroclimatologyen
dcterms.subjectmodellingen
dcterms.subjectprecipitationen
dcterms.subjectclimate change mitigationen
dcterms.subjecttemperatureen
dcterms.subjectrisken
dcterms.subjectseasonalityen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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