Online tools for assessing the climatology and predictability of rainfall and temperature in the Indo-Gangetic plains based on observed datasets and seasonal forecast models

Robertson AW, Bell M, Cousin R, Curtis A, Li S. 2013. Online tools for assessing the climatology and predictability of rainfall and temperature in the Indo-Gangetic plains based on observed datasets and seasonal forecast models. Working Paper no. 27. Cali, Colombia: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

Rainfall in the Northern India-Nepal-Bangladesh region is crucial for farmers, water managers and others in the region. Most precipitation falls predominantly during the south Asian summer monsoon season. The phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the monsoon as well as winter rainfall in some of the region, but the spring predictability barrier and weakness of ENSO-monsoon relationships lead to relatively low-to-moderate seasonal forecast skill in the region during summer. This report documents a set of tools developed to facilitate the analysis of the mean climate and the predictability of seasonal climate in the region and presents preliminary results for the summer monsoon season. These tools advance the tailoring of historical and forecast climate information for agriculture and increase the accessibility of the information via online map rooms to benefit stakeholders throughout the region.