HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: Integrating firm-level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling
| cg.authorship.types | CGIAR single centre | en |
| cg.coverage.region | Southern Africa | en |
| cg.coverage.region | Sub-Saharan Africa | en |
| cg.creator.identifier | James Thurlow: 0000-0003-3414-374X | en |
| cg.identifier.project | IFPRI - Development Strategy and Governance Division | en |
| cg.number | 864 | en |
| cg.place | Washington, DC | en |
| cg.reviewStatus | Internal Review | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Thurlow, James | en |
| dc.contributor.author | George, Gavin | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Gow, Jeff | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-11-21T09:59:00Z | en |
| dc.date.available | 2024-11-21T09:59:00Z | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161872 | |
| dc.title | HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: Integrating firm-level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling | en |
| dcterms.abstract | This paper estimates the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the rest of South Africa (RSA). We extend previous studies by employing an integrated analytical framework that combines the following: firm-level surveys of workers’ HIV prevalence by sector and occupation; a demographic model that produces both population and workforce projections; and a regionalized economywide model linked to a survey-based micro-simulation module. This framework permits a full macro-microeconomic assessment. The results indicate that HIV/AIDS greatly reduces annual economic growth, mainly by lowering the long-term rate of technical change. However, the impacts on income poverty are small, and inequality is reduced by HIV/AIDS. This is because high unemployment among low-income households minimizes the economic costs of increased mortality. In contrast, slower economic growth hurts higher-income households despite the lower prevalence of HIV among these households. We conclude that the increase in economic growth achieved through addressing HIV/AIDS is sufficient to offset the population pressure this move will place on income poverty. Moreover, incentives to mitigate HIV/AIDS lie not only with poorer infected households, but also with uninfected higher-income households. Our findings reveal that HIV/AIDS will place a substantial burden on future economic development in KZN and RSA, confirming the need for policies to curb the economic costs of this pandemic. | en |
| dcterms.accessRights | Open Access | en |
| dcterms.bibliographicCitation | Thurlow, James; George, Gavin; Gow, Jeff. 2009. HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa. IFPRI Discussion Paper 864. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161872 | en |
| dcterms.extent | 19 p. | en |
| dcterms.isPartOf | IFPRI Discussion Paper | en |
| dcterms.issued | 2009 | en |
| dcterms.language | en | en |
| dcterms.publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute | en |
| dcterms.replaces | https://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll2/id/22894 | en |
| dcterms.subject | HIV infections | en |
| dcterms.subject | growth | en |
| dcterms.subject | poverty | en |
| dcterms.subject | development policies | en |
| dcterms.type | Working Paper | en |
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