Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR single centreen
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationAcharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural Universityen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropicsen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Food Policy Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationGerman Development Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Rice Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Securityen
cg.contributor.crpDryland Systemsen
cg.contributor.crpPolicies, Institutions, and Marketsen
cg.contributor.crpGrain Legumesen
cg.contributor.donorBill & Melinda Gates Foundationen
cg.coverage.countryIndiaen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2INen
cg.coverage.regionAsiaen
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Asiaen
cg.creator.identifierDakshina Murthy Kadiyala: 0000-0003-2502-4140en
cg.creator.identifierSridhar Gummadi: 0000-0001-9501-1914en
cg.creator.identifierAnthony Whitbread: 0000-0003-4840-7670en
cg.creator.identifierRichard Robertson: 0000-0001-5741-3867en
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145996en
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Global Futures and Strategic Foresighten
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Environment and Production Technology Divisionen
cg.identifier.publicationRankA plusen
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn0048-9697en
cg.issue1-Jul-21en
cg.journalScience of the Total Environmenten
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.ccafsCLIMATE-SMART TECHNOLOGIES AND PRACTICESen
cg.subject.ccafsLOW EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENTen
cg.volume776en
dc.contributor.authorKadiyala, Dakshina Murthyen
dc.contributor.authorNedumaran, Swamikannuen
dc.contributor.authorPadmanabhan, Jyosthnaaen
dc.contributor.authorGumma, Murali K.en
dc.contributor.authorGummadi, Sridharen
dc.contributor.authorSrigiri, Srinivas Ren
dc.contributor.authorRobertson, Richard D.en
dc.contributor.authorWhitbread, Anthony M.en
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-12T19:01:49Zen
dc.date.available2021-05-12T19:01:49Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/113703
dc.titleModeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in Indiaen
dcterms.abstractGroundnut is one of the significant sources of oil, food, and fodder in India. It is grown in marginal arid and semi-arid agro-ecosystems with wide yield fluctuations due to spatial variability of rainfall and soil. Climate change, which is predicted to increase the intra- and inter-annual rainfall variability will further constrain the groundnut economy in India besides the global and domestic economic, social and policy changes. Through this study we aim to examine the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. Using projected climate data for India, we estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change on groundnut during mid-century using representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. We examined the impacts of changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate change impacts. Modelled projections show that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result in −2.3 to 43.2% change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in. But the change in groundnut yields ranged from −0.9% to 16.2% when economic (population and income) and market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario, the percent change in groundnut yields would be −33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and −11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic factors. This study highlights the need to take into account market effects to gain a holistic understanding of how economic and environmental factors impact agricultural food systems and economies.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.audienceAcademicsen
dcterms.audienceCGIARen
dcterms.audienceDevelopment Practitionersen
dcterms.audienceDonorsen
dcterms.audienceExtensionen
dcterms.audienceFarmersen
dcterms.audienceNGOsen
dcterms.audiencePolicy Makersen
dcterms.bibliographicCitationKadiyala DM, Nedumaran S, Padmanabhan J, Gumma MK, Gummadi S, Srigiri SR, Robertson R, Whitbread A. 2021. Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India. Science of the Total Environment 776:145996.en
dcterms.extent145996en
dcterms.issued2021-07en
dcterms.languageenen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0en
dcterms.publisherElsevieren
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd970en
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100441en
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-019-0004-2en
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.008en
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2017.11.008en
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.06.010en
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2016.08.003en
dcterms.replaceshttps://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll5/id/7648en
dcterms.subjectmodelsen
dcterms.subjectgroundnutsen
dcterms.subjectadaptationen
dcterms.subjectcommoditiesen
dcterms.subjectmodellingen
dcterms.subjectagricultureen
dcterms.subjectspatial analysisen
dcterms.subjecttradeen
dcterms.subjectclimate change adaptationen
dcterms.subjectfood securityen
dcterms.subjectpricesen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen

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