Simulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in Kazakhstan using the North American animal disease spread model

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationS. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research Universityen
cg.contributor.affiliationKazakh Research Veterinary Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationFreie Universität Berlinen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationFederal Center for Animal Health, Russiaen
cg.contributor.donorNational Budgetary Programme, Kazakhstanen
cg.coverage.countryKazakhstan
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2KZ
cg.coverage.regionCentral Asia
cg.coverage.regionEastern Europe
cg.creator.identifierJoseph Nkamwesiga: 0000-0001-6524-1241
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1155/2023/7052175en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1865-1674en
cg.issue1en
cg.journalTransboundary and Emerging Diseasesen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.ilriANIMAL DISEASESen
cg.subject.ilriPPRen
cg.subject.impactAreaNutrition, health and food security
cg.subject.sdgSDG 2 - Zero hungeren
cg.volume2023en
dc.contributor.authorYessenbayev, K.en
dc.contributor.authorMukhanbetkaliyev, Y.en
dc.contributor.authorYessembekova, G.en
dc.contributor.authorKadyrov, A.en
dc.contributor.authorSultanov, A.en
dc.contributor.authorBainiyazov, A.en
dc.contributor.authorBakishev, T.en
dc.contributor.authorNkamwesiga, Josephen
dc.contributor.authorKorennoy, F.en
dc.contributor.authorAbdrakhmanov, S.en
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-30T16:26:30Zen
dc.date.available2025-04-30T16:26:30Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/174399
dc.titleSimulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in Kazakhstan using the North American animal disease spread modelen
dcterms.abstractIn this study, we simulated the potential spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) between small ruminant (SR) farms in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) in case of the disease’s introduction into the country. The simulation was based on actual data on the location and population of SR farms in the RK using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). The NAADSM employs the stochastic simulations of the between-farm disease spread predicated on the SIR compartmental epidemic model. The most important epidemiological indicators of PPR, demography of SR farms, and livestock management characteristics in the RK were used for model parameterization. This article considers several scenarios for the initial introduction of PPR into the territory of Kazakhstan, based on previously identified high-risk regions and varying sizes of initially infected farms. It is demonstrated that the duration and size of the outbreak do not depend on the size of initially infected farms but rather depend on the livestock concentration and number of farms in the affected area. This implies that the outbreak may affect the largest number of farms in the case of introduction of the disease into farms in southern Kazakhstan. However, even in the most unfavorable scenario, the total number of affected farms does not exceed 2.4% of all SR farms in the RK. The size of the affected area is, in most cases, no larger than an averaged 2-level administrative division’s size, which suggests the scale of a local epidemic. The chosen model provides ample opportunity to study the impact of different control and prevention measures on the spread of PPR as well as to assess the potential economic damage.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceAcademicsen
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.available2023-03-28
dcterms.bibliographicCitationYessenbayev, K., Mukhanbetkaliyev, Y., Yessembekova, G., Kadyrov, A., Sultanov, A., Bainiyazov, A., Bakishev, T., Nkamwesiga, J., Korennoy, F. and Abdrakhmanov, S. 2023. Simulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in Kazakhstan using the North American animal disease spread model. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 2023(1): 7052175.en
dcterms.extent7052175en
dcterms.issued2023-03-28
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherWileyen
dcterms.subjectanimal diseasesen
dcterms.subjectpeste des petits ruminantsen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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