A simple model for simulating immunity rate dynamics in a tropical free-range poultry population after avian influenza vaccination

cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268809002453en
cg.issn0950-2688en
cg.issn1469-4409en
cg.issue10en
cg.journalEpidemiology and Infectionen
cg.subject.ilriDISEASE CONTROLen
cg.subject.ilriVACCINESen
cg.volume137en
dc.contributor.authorLesnoff, Matthieuen
dc.contributor.authorPeyre, M.en
dc.contributor.authorDuarte, P.C.en
dc.contributor.authorRenard, J.F.en
dc.contributor.authorMariner, Jeffrey C.en
dc.date.accessioned2009-10-30T08:18:48Zen
dc.date.available2009-10-30T08:18:48Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/37
dc.titleA simple model for simulating immunity rate dynamics in a tropical free-range poultry population after avian influenza vaccinationen
dcterms.abstractIn developing countries, vaccination against highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 (HPAI) in free-range poultry flocks is usually implemented as periodic campaigns and newborn chicks are generally not vaccinated by farmers between vaccination passes. The demographic population turnover leads to a continuous decrease in the population immunity rate (PIR) over time. We present a simple Leslie matrix model for estimating population turnover and PIR dynamics in a hypothetical small-size vaccinated free-range poultry population. Four different vaccination scenarios were identified assuming necessary procedures to achieve immunity. The results indicate that high levels of population immunity are difficult to sustain. Assuming an animal immunity response of 80% after vaccination and a constant population size, PIR 4 months after vaccination was 30% in all the scenarios. Predictions averaged over time showed mean PIR between 36% and 48%, which is below the population immunity thresholds for eradication approximated from R0 estimates.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2009-03-30
dcterms.bibliographicCitationLesnoff, M., Peyre, M., Duarte, P.C., Renard, J.-F. and Mariner, J.C. 2009. A simple model for simulating immunity rate dynamics in a tropical free-range poultry population after avian influenza vaccination. Epidemiology and Infection 137(10): 1405-1413.en
dcterms.extentp. 1405-1413en
dcterms.issued2009-10
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserved
dcterms.publisherCambridge University Pressen
dcterms.subjectpoultryen
dcterms.subjectfree range husbandryen
dcterms.subjectavian influenza virusen
dcterms.subjectimmunityen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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