Modeling the potential future distribution of anthrax outbreaks under multiple climate change scenarios for Kenya

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationSouth Eastern Kenya Universityen
cg.contributor.affiliationWashington State Universityen
cg.contributor.affiliationJomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technologyen
cg.contributor.affiliationMinistry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Irrigation, Kenyaen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Floridaen
cg.contributor.crpAgriculture for Nutrition and Health
cg.contributor.donorUnited States Defense Threat Reduction Agencyen
cg.coverage.countryKenya
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2KE
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africa
cg.creator.identifierFredrick Otieno: 0000-0002-3375-8905en
cg.creator.identifierBernard Bett: 0000-0001-9376-2941en
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18084176en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1660-4601en
cg.issue8en
cg.journalInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Healthen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.ilriANIMAL DISEASESen
cg.subject.ilriCLIMATE CHANGEen
cg.subject.ilriZOONOTIC DISEASESen
cg.subject.impactAreaNutrition, health and food security
cg.subject.sdgSDG 3 - Good health and well-beingen
cg.volume18en
dc.contributor.authorOtieno, Fredrick T.en
dc.contributor.authorGachohi, John M.en
dc.contributor.authorGikuma-Njuru, P.en
dc.contributor.authorKariuki, P.en
dc.contributor.authorOyas, H.en
dc.contributor.authorCanfield, S.A.en
dc.contributor.authorBett, Bernard K.en
dc.contributor.authorNjenga, M.K.en
dc.contributor.authorBlackburn, J.K.en
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-04T09:29:15Zen
dc.date.available2021-05-04T09:29:15Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/113625
dc.titleModeling the potential future distribution of anthrax outbreaks under multiple climate change scenarios for Kenyaen
dcterms.abstractThe climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011–2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017–2018), and active surveillance (2019–2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km2, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km2, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km2. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.audienceAcademicsen
dcterms.available2021-04-15en
dcterms.bibliographicCitationOtieno, F.T., Gachohi, J., Gikuma-Njuru, P., Kariuki, P., Oyas, H., Canfield, S.A., Bett, B., Njenga, M.K. and Blackburn, J.K. 2021. Modeling the potential future distribution of anthrax outbreaks under multiple climate change scenarios for Kenya. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18(8): 4176.en
dcterms.extent4176en
dcterms.issued2021-04-15en
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherMDPIen
dcterms.subjectanthraxen
dcterms.subjectanimal diseasesen
dcterms.subjectzoonosesen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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Identifying anthrax hotspots and associated ecological factors in Kenya
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