Modeling the potential future distribution of anthrax outbreaks under multiple climate change scenarios for Kenya

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen_US
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationSouth Eastern Kenya Universityen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationWashington State Universityen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationJomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technologyen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationMinistry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Irrigation, Kenyaen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Floridaen_US
cg.contributor.crpAgriculture for Nutrition and Healthen_US
cg.contributor.donorUnited States Defense Threat Reduction Agencyen_US
cg.coverage.countryKenyaen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2KEen_US
cg.coverage.regionAfricaen_US
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africaen_US
cg.creator.identifierFredrick Otieno: 0000-0002-3375-8905en_US
cg.creator.identifierBernard Bett: 0000-0001-9376-2941en_US
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden_US
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18084176en_US
cg.isijournalISI Journalen_US
cg.issn1660-4601en_US
cg.issue8en_US
cg.journalInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Healthen_US
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen_US
cg.subject.ilriANIMAL DISEASESen_US
cg.subject.ilriCLIMATE CHANGEen_US
cg.subject.ilriZOONOTIC DISEASESen_US
cg.subject.impactAreaNutrition, health and food securityen_US
cg.subject.sdgSDG 3 - Good health and well-beingen_US
cg.volume18en_US
dc.contributor.authorOtieno, Fredrick T.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGachohi, John M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGikuma-Njuru, P.en_US
dc.contributor.authorKariuki, P.en_US
dc.contributor.authorOyas, H.en_US
dc.contributor.authorCanfield, S.A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBett, Bernard K.en_US
dc.contributor.authorNjenga, M.K.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBlackburn, J.K.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-04T09:29:15Zen_US
dc.date.available2021-05-04T09:29:15Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/113625en_US
dc.titleModeling the potential future distribution of anthrax outbreaks under multiple climate change scenarios for Kenyaen_US
dcterms.abstractThe climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011–2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017–2018), and active surveillance (2019–2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km2, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km2, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km2. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_US
dcterms.audienceScientistsen_US
dcterms.audienceAcademicsen_US
dcterms.available2021-04-15en_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationOtieno, F.T., Gachohi, J., Gikuma-Njuru, P., Kariuki, P., Oyas, H., Canfield, S.A., Bett, B., Njenga, M.K. and Blackburn, J.K. 2021. Modeling the potential future distribution of anthrax outbreaks under multiple climate change scenarios for Kenya. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18(8): 4176.en_US
dcterms.extent4176en_US
dcterms.issued2021-04-15en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0en_US
dcterms.publisherMDPIen_US
dcterms.subjectanthraxen_US
dcterms.subjectanimal diseasesen_US
dcterms.subjectzoonosesen_US
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen_US
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen_US

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Identifying anthrax hotspots and associated ecological factors in Kenya
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