Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen_US
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationWashington State University Global Health Program-Kenyaen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Nairobien_US
cg.contributor.affiliationPwani Universityen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationUganda Virus Research Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationEmory Universityen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationMakerere Universityen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationAfrican Population and Health Research Centeren_US
cg.contributor.affiliationStrathmore Universityen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationZoonotic Disease Unit, Kenyaen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationKenya Medical Research Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationWashington State Universityen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationMinistry of Health, Ugandaen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.donorUnited States National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseasesen_US
cg.contributor.donorNational Institutes of Health, United Statesen_US
cg.coverage.countryKenyaen_US
cg.coverage.countryTanzaniaen_US
cg.coverage.countryUgandaen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2KEen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2TZen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2UGen_US
cg.coverage.regionAfricaen_US
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africaen_US
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Africaen_US
cg.creator.identifierSamuel O. Oyola: 0000-0002-6425-7345en_US
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden_US
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014737en_US
cg.isijournalISI Journalen_US
cg.issn2059-7908en_US
cg.issue6en_US
cg.journalBMJ Global Healthen_US
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen_US
cg.subject.actionAreaResilient Agrifood Systemsen_US
cg.subject.ilriCLIMATE CHANGEen_US
cg.subject.ilriRVFen_US
cg.subject.impactAreaNutrition, health and food securityen_US
cg.subject.impactPlatformNutrition, Health and Food Securityen_US
cg.subject.sdgSDG 3 - Good health and well-beingen_US
cg.volume9en_US
dc.contributor.authorSituma, S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorNyakarahuka, L.en_US
dc.contributor.authorOmondi, E.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMureithi, M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMweu, M.M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMuturi, M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMwatondo, A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorDawa, J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorKonongoi, L.en_US
dc.contributor.authorKhamadi, S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorClancey, E.en_US
dc.contributor.authorLofgren, E.en_US
dc.contributor.authorOsoro, E.en_US
dc.contributor.authorNgere, I.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBreiman, R.F.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBakamutumaho, B.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMuruta, A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGachohi, J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorOyola, Samuel O.en_US
dc.contributor.authorNjenga, M.K.en_US
dc.contributor.authorSingh, D.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2024-06-11T08:49:55Zen_US
dc.date.available2024-06-11T08:49:55Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/145124en_US
dc.titleWidening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africaen_US
dcterms.abstractBackground: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterising recent RVF disease events in East Africa. Methods: Data on 100 disease events (2008–2022) from Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modelled against possible geoecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980 and 2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern. Results: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1–3) and three livestock cases (IQR, 2–7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR, 0–1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geoecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1°C increase in temperature and a 1-unit increase in NDVI, one months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1, 1.2) and 1.93 (95% CI 1.01, 3.71), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed a significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12–0.3°C/decade, p<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (p<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_US
dcterms.audienceAcademicsen_US
dcterms.audienceScientistsen_US
dcterms.available2024-06-10en_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationSituma, S., Nyakarahuka, L., Omondi, E., Mureithi, M., Mweu, M.M., Muturi, M., Mwatondo, A., Dawa, J., Konongoi, L., Khamadi, S., Clancey, E., Lofgren, E., Osoro, E., Ngere, I., Breiman, R.F., Bakamutumaho, B., Muruta, A., Gachohi, J., Oyola, S.O., Njenga, M.K. and Singh, D. 2024. Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa. BMJ Global Health 9(6): e014737.en_US
dcterms.extente014737en_US
dcterms.issued2024-06-10en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-NC-4.0en_US
dcterms.publisherBMJen_US
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen_US
dcterms.subjectrift valley feveren_US
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen_US

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