Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR multi-centreen_US
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Food Policy Research Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationEgerton Universityen_US
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden_US
cg.contributor.initiativeNational Policies and Strategiesen_US
cg.coverage.countryKenyaen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2KEen_US
cg.coverage.regionAfricaen_US
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africaen_US
cg.coverage.regionSub-Saharan Africaen_US
cg.creator.identifierHailemariam Ayalew Tiruneh: 0000-0002-0199-7346en_US
cg.creator.identifierClemens Breisinger: 0000-0001-6955-0682en_US
cg.creator.identifierSally Kimathi: 0000-0002-1071-9495en_US
cg.howPublishedGrey Literatureen_US
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Development Strategies and Governance Uniten_US
cg.identifier.publicationRankNot rankeden_US
cg.number2306en_US
cg.placeWashington, DCen_US
cg.reviewStatusInternal Reviewen_US
cg.subject.actionAreaSystems Transformationen_US
cg.subject.impactAreaClimate adaptation and mitigationen_US
cg.subject.impactAreaNutrition, health and food securityen_US
cg.subject.impactAreaPoverty reduction, livelihoods and jobsen_US
dc.contributor.authorAyalew, Hailemariamen_US
dc.contributor.authorBreisinger, Clemensen_US
dc.contributor.authorKarugia, Joseph T.en_US
dc.contributor.authorKimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoien_US
dc.contributor.authorKimathi, Sallyen_US
dc.contributor.authorOlwande, Johnen_US
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-07T16:12:18Zen_US
dc.date.available2025-01-07T16:12:18Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168639en_US
dc.titleSubsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptionsen_US
dcterms.abstractAmid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_US
dcterms.audienceAcademicsen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationAyalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; and Olwande, John. 2024. Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2306. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168639en_US
dcterms.extent33 p.en_US
dcterms.isPartOfIFPRI Discussion Paperen_US
dcterms.issued2024-12-31en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserveden_US
dcterms.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Instituteen_US
dcterms.subjectsubsidiesen_US
dcterms.subjectfertilizersen_US
dcterms.subjectresilienceen_US
dcterms.subjectsupply chain disruptionsen_US
dcterms.subjectsupply chainsen_US
dcterms.subjectglobal value chainsen_US
dcterms.subjectmaizeen_US
dcterms.subjectsmallholdersen_US
dcterms.typeWorking Paperen_US

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